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Ukraine has world’s attention but look around, 2 new flashpoints emerging for US-Russia clash

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The Russia-Ukraine war has reached the dangerous threshold of nuclear escalation but it is not the only conflict that Europe is reeling under. Tensions are stoked in at least two other major flashpoints in the Balkans and the Caucasus as the world experiences tumultuous frenzy with great power politics being played out dangerously in Ukraine. These two flashpoints merit attention to prepare the world in case of further contingencies. What binds the Western Balkans to the Caucasus, among other issues, is an extremely challenging legacy of the past.

Long before the conflict in Ukraine escalated into a full-scale war by Russia, tensions existed in the Western Balkans, as did Russia’s interest in the region that has remained a troubled area within Europe, to be used as a threat, whenever deemed fit for Moscow’s interests. On the part of Europe, Balkans has been an under-examined dimension of European security, now back in priority as Ukraine-ripples reach other grey zones where recent memories of bloodiest conflicts have not receded.

Also read: Why Russia’s nuclear threats to Ukraine are as empty as Pakistan’s to India

Parallel processes on opposite sides of the Black Sea

On the other side of Black Sea, sandwiched between Turkey and Russia, lies the region of Caucasus with three European Caucasian countries of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also undergoing renewed conflict after a 44-day-long and bloody war in 2020 over Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict that famously crafted the imagery of modern warfare in terms of drones and loiter munitions deployment.

Like in the Balkans, the warring sides in Caucasus too are supported by rival camps. India, in its outreach to the region, has emerged as a stakeholder by sending Pinaka rockets and other ammunition to Armenia a second time after 2020.

The Balkans is an interesting region because, just like Ukraine, it touches upon the sensitive issue of NATO expansion despite strong opposition by Serbia, backed by Russia. While Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia are already members of NATO, Bosnia Herzegovina (with its precarious ethnic balancing) and Kosovo are not.

And just like Russia refuses to accept Ukraine as a sovereign State, creating murky spaces for proxy wars between great powers, Serbia refuses to accede legitimacy to Kosovo as an independent State. The situation has been vulnerable to aiding conflict between rival camps.

Russia’s destabilisation strategy: Baltics to the Balkans

As in the Baltics, Russia, along with its ally Serbia, has been at the forefront of destabilising the western Balkans as well. Until a few years ago, the involvement of the Russian secret service in a failed coup in Montenegro was confirmed. This was at a time when Montenegro was concluding the procedures for NATO membership, which was certainly against Russian interests. Further, close relations that the representative of the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, cultivated with President Vladimir Putin provided more clarity on Russia’s motives and interests in this part of Europe. Reinforcing tense relations between Kosovo and Serbia turns out to be a well-thought-out strategy of the Russian Federation to cement its influence in the region.

Also read: Winter is coming—the most dangerous phase of Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Balkan conundrum

Serbia has been mired in a long-drawn conflict with Kosovo, its breakaway province in the south that unilaterally declared independence in 2008. This came after violent ethnic cleansing and bloodbath that triggered NATO’s intervention in the late 1990s.

The root of the problem is that ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo’s north do not recognise Pristina’s authority to impose rules and regulations. Serbia upholds Kosovo as its own territory, politically and culturally, because the latter is home to a number of medieval Serb Orthodox Christian monasteries. The Serb position is supported by Russia, China, and some European countries. The majority population living in Kosovo are ethnic Albanians who are majorly Muslims. They accuse Serbia of occupation and repression. Despite years of negotiation by the international community and the European Union, the deadlock over Kosovo’s independence has kept tensions between both sides simmering, which has prevented full stabilisation of the Balkan region. Adding fuel to the fire has been the presence of NATO, which maintains peace between both sides with about 5,000 troops on the ground in Kosovo, but is keen to intervene lest “stability is jeopardised”. This statement takes on a deeper hue considering that Serbia started military exercises near the border with Kosovo just as mediation efforts intensified. Even though an interim deal has been reached a few days ago, it has no lasting impact or directives to solve the frequent flares between the arch rivals.

The Ukraine war has manifested an isolated Russia in Europe. Russian foreign minister Sergi Lavrov was caught by embarrassment in June when Serbia’s surrounding neighbours, all NATO members, closed their airspaces, forcing him to cancel the visit to Belgrade. It was a huge fiasco and diplomatic scandal for Serbia. While Serbia refuses to join the sanctions regime, it has rejected the Russian referenda results upholding the territorial unity of Ukraine.

Also read: Modi’s vishwa guru quest continues. Australia visit will help India wean Canberra away from China

Caucasian conundrum

Armenia’s miscalculations about its military stature and Russian backing made it lose the war in 2020. Despite being a member of the Russia-led security alliance, Armenia did not get the active support it expected from Russia, while the military preparedness of Azerbaijan was ramped up by imported weapons from Europe, Israel and Turkey. To Armenia’s renewed frustration, while its pleas to the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to intervene during the 2020 war and again the following year went unheeded, early this year, the CSTO nonchalantly planned the deployment of Armenian troops as part of the mission to quell unrest in Kazakstan.

Monitored by Russian ‘peacekeepers’ since 2020, any conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is seen by Russia as challenging its influence in the region. But Armenia may not be happy with Russia playing ‘all sides’ in the Caucasus, especially when the latter sells arms to Azerbaijan as well. Recent analysis has called out Armenia’s tilt toward NATO and alleged covert support to Ukraine despite being a formal treaty ally of Russia. Internationalisation of the conflict is in Armenia’s interest and a priority too because Russia failed to provide any closure to its ally yet again when violence resumed on 9 September 2022.

The ground in the Caucasus is fertile for further internationalisation of the conflict and a likely stepping up of NATO’s presence in the region. It might also witness further militarisation by Russia to hold on to its weaning influence, thereby raising stakes in the already tense environment.

Also read: The Nordic-5 is tired of China’s power-games, and Modi’s India has its eyes out

India’s stand

While India is at the forefront of de-escalation and diplomacy in both Ukraine and the Balkans, New Delhi’s approach to the conflict in the Caucasus has been more ‘realist’. Both Armenia and India have a mutual concern about the emerging axis between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan since 2020. India has recently inked a deal with Armenia to send indigenous Pinaka rocket launchers and other ammunition. It is not the first time that Armenia has imported ammunition from India. In 2020, India sold 4 Swathi Weapon Locating Radars to Armenia worth Rs 350 crore.

Nuance is key in analysing this region of the world where positions taken are not black and white for any player, except the ones directly involved in the war. European players and global actors are meandering a maze of renewed tensions over national interests, ethnic identities and great power confrontation where narratives merge and overlap. What remains is the seething discomfort of another impending conflict.

The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)

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Tweeting Praise for Putin Ally, Musk Wades In on Ukraine Again

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Elon Musk says he has not spoken with Vladimir Putin since the Russian president sent his troops into Ukraine. But the billionaire’s warm words for a tweet from a top Kremlin official drew him into an unusual back-and-forth over the war.

The SpaceX Chief Executive Officer praised a snarky post by Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday about the UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, known for her tough stance against Russia’s invasion and strong support for Ukraine. 

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Moldova’s future is tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine

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The tiny nation between Romania and Ukraine wants to join the European Union and regain control of its Kremlin-backed Transnistria region. Kyiv’s triumph could advance both aims.

House of SovietsA bust of Vladimir Lenin in front of the House of Soviets on July 30, 2022, in Tiraspol, Moldova. Transnistria remains strongly tied with its Soviet past. Fears that Russia will try to annex parts of Moldova still remain high. © Getty Images

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  • Russia’s war in Ukraine offers Moldova new risks and opportunities
  • The fate of the breakaway Kremlin-backed Transnistria region is in play
  • Moscow’s success in war could halt Moldova’s Western integration

In June, amid the war in Ukraine, the European Union offered Moldova candidate status for membership in the 27-nation bloc. This was a big step with a hazy outlook. The former Soviet republic had long been kept off the list of applicants for good reasons, including endemic corruption and a frozen conflict in its Transnistria region.

The obstacle of corruption could have been overcome, much as similar concerns were overlooked when Bulgaria and Romania were admitted to the EU. But the frozen conflict – involving the long-standing presence of Russian troops – is a different matter. The decision to grant Moldova candidate status came as part of the same offer to Ukraine, which in turn was an attempt to provide security guarantees without a military component. The moral support in giving these two nations the prospect of joining the EU is important. But the move does take the question of enlargement into uncharted waters.

NATO has a general rule against accepting new members that have foreign military bases on their territory. If Brussels is now intent on opening negotiations with Kyiv and Chisinau on membership, it will have to factor in the possibility that both countries will have Russian troops on their territories, perhaps for the foreseeable future. Moldova, with less than 3 million people, encapsulates this problem in a more manageable size and location than Ukraine, with more than 40 million people.

The Soviet Union annexed the present-day territory of Moldova from Romania in 1940 and then constituted it as the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic. When the USSR broke up, it followed the other 14 Soviet republics in proclaiming independence. That provoked an armed conflict with the Russian-speaking population in the eastern part of the country and Moscow’s intervention on their side.

Maintaining frozen conflicts constitutes an important tool of Russian foreign and security policy.

Controlling a tiny sliver of land along the east bank of the Dniester River bordering Ukraine, the rebel leadership announced the formation of the independent state of Transnistria and appealed to the remaining Soviet garrison for protection against Moldovan government forces. A military stalemate was quickly achieved, leaving the “government” in Tiraspol in charge of their “republic.” Three decades later, the political divide remains unresolved over the territory with half a million people.

Moldova wants the Russian troops removed and, like most of the world, does not recognize Transnistria’s independence, while the region’s “foreign minister” said joining the Russian Federation remains the goal.

Nonrecognition and trouble in international relations

Maintaining frozen conflicts is an important tool of Russian foreign and security policy. Transnistria is not alone. Other examples range from Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan to the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, seized by Russia in its 2008 war, and the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, captured during Russia’s 2014 military invasion.

The common denominator is that Russia intervenes in a conflict where it claims its “compatriots” are being maltreated. Instead of pressing for a military solution and outright annexation, as in the exceptional case of Crimea in 2014, the common practice has been to promote the formation of unrecognized state-like formations under its control.

There are two upsides for the Kremlin. One is leverage over governments in internationally recognized states that refuse to play the Kremlin’s game. And a second, much greater benefit comes from the existence of territories that are outside the control or legitimate law enforcement institutions.

Where crime and corruption flourish

The Republic of Chechnya is an example. It is run as a personal fiefdom by Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov. Territories such as these serve as incubators for organized crime and corruption. Given the high-level corruption that links Russian officialdom with Russian organized crime, the benefit of having access to such territories is obvious. Abkhazia and South Ossetia have played important roles as conduits for covert Russian finance of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions, while Transnistria has provided an important link to Russian-controlled criminal networks in Hungary and Austria.

Fear of Russia evaporates

What is currently at stake for Russia goes beyond the battle for Ukraine. Irrespective of how that war ends, Moscow’s conduct has already had serious consequences. It has resulted in pariah status for Russia across much of the Western world, in humiliation for its armed forces, and in the degraded capability of its military-industrial complex. And as the fear of Russia evaporates, other countries see opportunities.

The Kremlin’s decision to purchase weapons and ammunition from North Korea proves that the “unlimited friendship” between Russia and China did not extend beyond Beijing pouncing on the opportunity to stock up on cheap Russian oil and natural gas.

Russia’s long-standing role as hegemon in Central Asia is being visibly eroded, as even its staunchest ally Kazakhstan is turning a cold shoulder. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev caused a sensation when he used a public appearance with President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg to declare he had no intention to recognize any Russia-sponsored “quasi-state formations” in Ukraine.

The frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was resolved by force in 2020 when Turkey provided military support for Azerbaijan to recapture much of the territory that had been occupied by Armenia since the early 1990s. Russian peacekeepers have since been forced to abandon their Armenian ally, and Azerbaijan rules the roost.

Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova

This leaves three conflicts.

One is in Georgia, where Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been protected by Russian forces ever since they proclaimed independence. As much of the Russian military has been sent to Ukraine, they are now low-hanging fruit, up for grabs if Tbilisi wishes to make a move.

The second is in Ukraine, where the Kremlin has lost all prospect of realizing its even scaled-back objective of fully conquering the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Its best remaining option may be to settle for a refreezing of the conflict as it was before 2022 – or face a total rout.

The third is in Moldova, where the conflict in Transnistria remains frozen. The reason why Russia wants to keep the status quo is simple to see. Having a foothold inside Moldova is imperative to projecting force to the border of NATO member Romania. Losing that foothold would be a major strategic setback.

At the time of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, there was concern that the Russian armed forces would roll across southern Ukraine and link up with the garrison in Transnistria. Given that Russia did not have sufficient troops mobilized, that was a far-fetched scenario. Yet, after seven months of fighting, Russia has been able to seize nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory – up from 7 percent taken in 2014. But its grand territorial aims have largely been frustrated and even rolled back with Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson.

The plan for southern Ukraine was to invade in two stages. The first stage had ground forces pushing west to capture key southeastern cities along the M-14 highway – Mariupol, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Kherson. That offensive was supported by forces pushing north from Crimea. Russia currently has a shaky hold on those cities.

Having captured the coastline along the Sea of Azov to just beyond Crimea, the second stage would have been for ground forces to make a further push toward Odesa, where they would be joined by marine infantry from Crimea making an amphibious landing. Once the prize of Odesa – the Black Sea port city with 1 million people – had been conquered, it would have been a walk in the park for Russia to link up with its garrison in Transnistria. The operation failed. Ground forces did not get much beyond Kherson and the planned amphibious landing since part of the aim to seize Odesa was deterred by advanced anti-ship missiles.

If Ukraine can regain its occupied territory from Russia in this war, Moldova will be safer from Kremlin aggression.

If it had been successful in Odesa, the Kremlin would have achieved two major objectives. One is that the entire north shore of the Black Sea would have been a Russian coastline, creating a stranglehold over the ports that are vital to Ukraine’s economy. The second is that the entirety of Moldova would have been placed under effective Russian control. Not being a member of NATO, it would have stood no chance of resisting Russian demands.

These events leave major questions over the outlook for Moldova and its Russian-controlled Transnistria region.

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If Ukraine can regain its occupied territory from Russia in this war, Moldova will be safer from Kremlin aggression. Ideally, Kyiv seeks to regain full control of all of its internationally recognized territory, including Crimea and the eastern Donbas regions.

But even Ukraine’s ability to recapture some of the territories that the Russians took this year, coupled with the substantial degradation of Moscow’s military capabilities, has the potential to transform the situation in Moldova.

If a Russian military push is unlikely in the foreseeable future, the Kremlin-supported regime in Transnistria would have a strong incentive to come to terms with the legal authorities in Moldova. Being deprived of economic relations with Russia, the criminal and corrupt elites of Tiraspol would need to show greater transparency and accountability with Chisinau to survive.

Any such agreement would inevitably entail eviction of the Russian military garrison, with an estimated 1,500 soldiers, including local Transnistrians. A withdrawal would end any Russian hopes of retaining a military foothold west of Ukraine. In military terms, Moldova would become integrated with Ukraine and Romania into what may emerge as a new NATO neighborhood.

Political dimension

Assuming improvement in the security situation, the EU would have to confront the nonmilitary reasons why Moldova had not been offered candidate status before the war in Ukraine. Moldova is so small that the EU would have little problem absorbing it. But the challenge will be in overcoming the legacies of corrupt governance.

Bad outcome

A stalemate in the hostilities in Ukraine could happen if the warring sides exhaust each other: Russia would not have the strength to make further territorial gains and Ukraine would be unable to liberate its territory. For the Kremlin, an inconclusive struggle would be a victory, and negotiations for peace would likely entail the easing of Western sanctions. For Moldova, Russian troops would likely be able to stay put in Transnistria, keeping the conflict frozen into its fourth decade.

Prospects for integration of Moldova into the EU would worsen considerably. If Transnistria remains an incubator of corruption and organized crime, it will also remain integrated into Russian criminal networks and their offshoots in Hungary and Austria. This will inevitably have a corrosive influence on those institutions in Moldova that need to be brought up to EU standards.

Recent developments on the ground are hopeful for Ukraine. Kyiv says it has seized 6,000 square kilometers of its territory from Russian control this year, yet almost 120,000 square kilometers out of Ukraine’s 603,700 square kilometers – roughly 20 percent – are still in Kremlin hands.

The game is far from over.

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Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine

Media organisations, including the BBC, have also had unprecedented access to commercial satellite imagery – which can be used to corroborate claims on the ground. That includes identifying mass graves or Ukraine’s recent attack on a Russian airbase in Crimea, a southern Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

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The Informants

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Illustrations: Jeffrey Smith

Illustrations: Jeffrey Smith

James Cromitie was a man of bluster and bigotry. He made up wild stories about his supposed exploits, like the one about firing gas bombs into police precincts using a flare gun, and he ranted about Jews. “The worst brother in the whole Islamic world is better than 10 billion Yahudi,” he once said.

A 45-year-old Walmart stocker who’d adopted the name Abdul Rahman after converting to Islam during a prison stint for selling cocaine, Cromitie had lots of worries—convincing his wife he wasn’t sleeping around, keeping up with the rent, finding a decent job despite his felony record. But he dreamed of making his mark. He confided as much in a middle-aged Pakistani he knew as Maqsood.

“I’m gonna run into something real big,” he’d say. “I just feel it, I’m telling you. I feel it.”

Maqsood and Cromitie had met at a mosque in Newburgh, a struggling former Air Force town about an hour north of New York City. They struck up a friendship, talking for hours about the world’s problems and how the Jews were to blame.

It was all talk until November 2008, when Maqsood pressed his new friend.

“Do you think you are a better recruiter or a better action man?” Maqsood asked.

“I’m both,” Cromitie bragged.

“My people would be very happy to know that, brother. Honestly.”

“Who’s your people?” Cromitie asked.

“Jaish-e-Mohammad.”

Maqsood said he was an agent for the Pakistani terror group, tasked with assembling a team to wage jihad in the United States. He asked Cromitie what he would attack if he had the means. A bridge, Cromitie said.

“But bridges are too hard to be hit,” Maqsood pleaded, “because they’re made of steel.”

“Of course they’re made of steel,” Cromitie replied. “But the same way they can be put up, they can be brought down.”

Maqsood coaxed Cromitie toward a more realistic plan. The Mumbai attacks were all over the news, and he pointed out how those gunmen targeted hotels, cafés, and a Jewish community center.

“With your intelligence, I know you can manipulate someone,” Cromitie told his friend. “But not me, because I’m intelligent.” The pair settled on a plot to bomb synagogues in the Bronx, and then fire Stinger missiles at airplanes taking off from Stewart International Airport in the southern Hudson Valley. Maqsood would provide all the explosives and weapons, even the vehicles. “We have two missiles, okay?” he offered. “Two Stingers, rocket missiles.”

Maqsood was an undercover operative; that much was true. But not for Jaish-e-Mohammad. His real name was Shahed Hussain, and he was a paid informant for the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Ever since 9/11, counterterrorism has been the FBI’s No. 1 priority, consuming the lion’s share of its budget—$3.3 billion, compared to $2.6 billion for organized crime—and much of the attention of field agents and a massive, nationwide network of informants. After years of emphasizing informant recruiting as a key task for its agents, the bureau now maintains a roster of 15,000 spies—many of them tasked, as Hussain was, with infiltrating Muslim communities in the United States. In addition, for every informant officially listed in the bureau’s records, there are as many as three unofficial ones, according to one former high-level FBI official, known in bureau parlance as “hip pockets.”

The bureau now maintains a roster of 15,000 spies, some paid as much as $100,000 per case, many of them tasked with infiltrating Muslim communities in the United States.

The informants could be doctors, clerks, imams. Some might not even consider themselves informants. But the FBI regularly taps all of them as part of a domestic intelligence apparatus whose only historical peer might be COINTELPRO, the program the bureau ran from the ’50s to the ’70s to discredit and marginalize organizations ranging from the Ku Klux Klan to civil-rights and protest groups.

Throughout the FBI’s history, informant numbers have been closely guarded secrets. Periodically, however, the bureau has released those figures. A Senate oversight committee in 1975 found the FBI had 1,500 informants. In 1980, officials disclosed there were 2,800. Six years later, following the FBI’s push into drugs and organized crime, the number of bureau informants ballooned to 6,000, the Los Angeles Times reported in 1986. And according to the FBI, the number grew significantly after 9/11. In its fiscal year 2008 budget authorization request, the FBI disclosed that it it had been been working under a November 2004 presidential directive demanding an increase in “human source development and management,” and that it needed $12.7 million for a program to keep tabs on its spy network and create software to track and manage informants.

The bureau’s strategy has changed significantly from the days when officials feared another coordinated, internationally financed attack from an Al Qaeda sleeper cell. Today, counterterrorism experts believe groups like Al Qaeda, battered by the war in Afghanistan and the efforts of the global intelligence community, have shifted to a franchise model, using the internet to encourage sympathizers to carry out attacks in their name. The main domestic threat, as the FBI sees it, is a lone wolf.

The bureau’s answer has been a strategy known variously as “preemption,” “prevention,” and “disruption”—identifying and neutralizing potential lone wolves before they move toward action. To that end, FBI agents and informants target not just active jihadists, but tens of thousands of law-abiding people, seeking to identify those disgruntled few who might participate in a plot given the means and the opportunity. And then, in case after case, the government provides the plot, the means, and the opportunity.

Here’s how it works: Informants report to their handlers on people who have, say, made statements sympathizing with terrorists. Those names are then cross-referenced with existing intelligence data, such as immigration and criminal records. FBI agents may then assign an undercover operative to approach the target by posing as a radical. Sometimes the operative will propose a plot, provide explosives, even lead the target in a fake oath to Al Qaeda. Once enough incriminating information has been gathered, there’s an arrest—and a press conference announcing another foiled plot.

If this sounds vaguely familiar, it’s because such sting operations are a fixture in the headlines. Remember the Washington Metro bombing plot? The New York subway plot? The guys who planned to blow up the Sears Tower? The teenager seeking to bomb a Portland Christmas tree lighting? Each of those plots, and dozens more across the nation, was led by an FBI asset.

Over the past year, Mother Jones and the Investigative Reporting Program at the University of California-Berkeley have examined prosecutions of 508 defendants in terrorism-related cases, as defined by the Department of Justice. Our investigation found:

  • Nearly half the prosecutions involved the use of informants, many of them incentivized by money (operatives can be paid as much as $100,000 per assignment) or the need to work off criminal or immigration violations. (For more on the details of those 508 cases, see our charts page and searchable database.)
  • Sting operations resulted in prosecutions against 158 defendants. Of that total, 49 defendants participated in plots led by an agent provocateur—an FBI operative instigating terrorist action.
  • With three exceptions, all of the high-profile domestic terror plots of the last decade were actually FBI stings. (The exceptions are Najibullah Zazi, who came close to bombing the New York City subway system in September 2009; Hesham Mohamed Hadayet, an Egyptian who opened fire on the El-Al ticket counter at the Los Angeles airport; and failed Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad.)
  • In many sting cases, key encounters between the informant and the target were not recorded—making it hard for defendants claiming entrapment to prove their case.
  • Terrorism-related charges are so difficult to beat in court, even when the evidence is thin, that defendants often don’t risk a trial.

“The problem with the cases we’re talking about is that defendants would not have done anything if not kicked in the ass by government agents,” says Martin Stolar, a lawyer who represented a man caught in a 2004 sting involving New York’s Herald Square subway station. “They’re creating crimes to solve crimes so they can claim a victory in the war on terror.” In the FBI’s defense, supporters argue that the bureau will only pursue a case when the target clearly is willing to participate in violent action. “If you’re doing a sting right, you’re offering the target multiple chances to back out,” says Peter Ahearn, a retired FBI special agent who directed the Western New York Joint Terrorism Task Force and oversaw the investigation of the Lackawanna Six, an alleged terror cell near Buffalo, New York. “Real people don’t say, ‘Yeah, let’s go bomb that place.’ Real people call the cops.”

Even so, Ahearn concedes that the uptick in successful terrorism stings might not be evidence of a growing threat so much as a greater focus by the FBI. “If you concentrate more people on a problem,” Ahearn says, “you’ll find more problems.” Today, the FBI follows up on literally every single call, email, or other terrorism-related tip it receives for fear of missing a clue.

And the emphasis is unlikely to shift anytime soon. Sting operations have “proven to be an essential law enforcement tool in uncovering and preventing potential terror attacks,” said Attorney General Eric Holder in a December 2010 speech to Muslim lawyers and civil rights activists. President Obama’s Department of Justice has announced sting-related prosecutions at an even faster clip than the Bush administration, with 44 new cases since January 2009. With the war on terror an open-ended and nebulous conflict, the FBI doesn’t have an exit strategy.
 

Located deep in a wooded area on a Marine Corps base west of Interstate 95—a setting familiar from Silence of the Lambs—is the sandstone fortress of the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia. This building, erected under J. Edgar Hoover, is where to this day every FBI special agent is trained.

J. Stephen Tidwell graduated from the academy in 1981 and over the years rose to executive assistant director, one of the 10 highest positions in the FBI; in 2008, he coauthored the Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide, or DIOG (PDF), the manual for what agents and informants can and cannot do.

A former Texas cop, Tidwell is a barrel-chested man with close-cropped salt-and-pepper hair. He’s led some of the FBI’s highest-profile investigations, including the DC sniper case and the probe of the 9/11 attack on the Pentagon.

On a cloudy spring afternoon, Tidwell, dressed in khakis and a blue sweater, drove me in his black Ford F-350 through Hogan’s Alley—a 10-acre Potemkin village with houses, bars, stores, and a hotel. Agents learning the craft role-play stings, busts, and bank robberies here, and inside jokes and pop-culture references litter the place (which itself gets its name from a 19th-century comic strip). At one end of the town is the Biograph Theater, named for the Chicago movie house where FBI agents gunned down John Dillinger in 1934. (“See,” Tidwell says. “The FBI has a sense of humor.”)

Inside the academy, a more somber tone prevails. Plaques everywhere honor agents who have been killed on the job. Tidwell takes me to one that commemorates John O’Neill, who became chief of the bureau’s then-tiny counterterrorism section in 1995. For years before retiring from the FBI, O’Neill warned of Al Qaeda’s increasing threat, to no avail. In late August 2001, he left the bureau to take a job as head of security for the World Trade Center, where he died 19 days later at the hands of the enemy he’d told the FBI it should fear. The agents he had trained would end up reshaping the bureau’s counterterrorism operations.

Before 9/11, FBI agents considered chasing terrorists an undesirable career path, and their training did not distinguish between Islamic terror tactics and those employed by groups like the Irish Republican Army. “A bombing case is a bombing case,” Dale Watson, who was the FBI’s counterterrorism chief on 9/11, said in a December 2004 deposition. The FBI also did not train agents in Arabic or require most of them to learn about radical Islam. “I don’t necessarily think you have to know everything about the Ku Klux Klan to investigate a church bombing,” Watson said. The FBI had only one Arabic speaker in New York City and fewer than 10 nationwide.

But shortly after 9/11, President George W. Bush called FBI Director Robert Mueller to Camp David. His message: never again. And so Mueller committed to turn the FBI into a counterintelligence organization rivaling Britain’s MI5 in its capacity for surveillance and clandestine activity. Federal law enforcement went from a focus on fighting crime to preventing crime; instead of accountants and lawyers cracking crime syndicates, the bureau would focus on Jack Bauer-style operators disrupting terror groups.

To help run the counterterrorism section, Mueller drafted Arthur Cummings, a former Navy SEAL who’d investigated the first World Trade Center bombing. Cummings pressed agents to focus not only on their immediate target, but also on the extended web of people linked to the target. “We’re looking for the sympathizer who wants to become an operator, and we want to catch them when they step over that line to operator,” Cummings says. “Sometimes, that step takes 10 years. Other times, it takes 10 minutes.” The FBI’s goal is to create a hostile environment for terrorist recruiters and operators—by raising the risk of even the smallest step toward violent action. It’s a form of deterrence, an adaptation of the “broken windows” theory used to fight urban crime. Advocates insist it has been effective, noting that there hasn’t been a successful large-scale attack against the United States since 9/11. But what can’t be answered—as many former and current FBI agents acknowledge—is how many of the bureau’s targets would have taken the step over the line at all, were it not for an informant.
 

So how did the FBI build its informant network? It began by asking where US Muslims lived. Four years after 9/11, the bureau brought in a CIA expert on intelligence-gathering methods named Phil Mudd. His tool of choice was a data-mining system using commercially available information, as well as government data such as immigration records, to pinpoint the demographics of specific ethnic and religious communities—say, Iranians in Beverly Hills or Pakistanis in the DC suburbs.

The FBI officially denies that the program, known as Domain Management, works this way—its purpose, the bureau says, is simply to help allocate resources according to threats. But FBI agents told me that with counterterrorism as the bureau’s top priority, agents often look for those threats in Muslim communities—and Domain Management allows them to quickly understand those communities’ makeup. One high-ranking former FBI official jokingly referred to it as “Battlefield Management.”

Some FBI veterans criticized the program as unproductive and intrusive—one told Mudd during a high-level meeting that he’d pushed the bureau to “the dark side.” That tension has its roots in the stark difference between the FBI and the CIA: While the latter is free to operate internationally without regard to constitutional rights, the FBI must respect those rights in domestic investigations, and Mudd’s critics saw the idea of targeting Americans based on their ethnicity and religion as a step too far.

Nonetheless, Domain Management quickly became the foundation for the FBI’s counterterrorism dragnet. Using the demographic data, field agents were directed to target specific communities to recruit informants. Some agents were assigned to the task full time. And across the bureau, agents’ annual performance evaluations are now based in part on their recruiting efforts.

People cooperate with law enforcement for fairly simple reasons: ego, patriotism, money, or coercion. The FBI’s recruitment has relied heavily on the latter. One tried-and-true method is to flip someone facing criminal charges. But since 9/11 the FBI has also relied heavily on Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with which it has worked closely as part of increased interagency coordination. A typical scenario will play out like this: An FBI agent trying to get someone to cooperate will look for evidence that the person has immigration troubles. If they do, he can ask ICE to begin or expedite deportation proceedings. If the immigrant then chooses to cooperate, the FBI will tell the court that he is a valuable asset, averting deportation.

A well-muscled 49-year-old with a shaved scalp, Craig Monteilh has been a versatile snitch: He’s pretended to be a white supremacist, a Russian hit man, a Sicilian drug trafficker, and a French-Syrian Muslim.

Sometimes, the target of this kind of push is the one person in a mosque who will know everyone’s business—the imam. Two Islamic religious leaders, Foad Farahi in Miami and Sheikh Tarek Saleh in New York City, are currently fighting deportation proceedings that, they claim, began after they refused to become FBI assets. The Muslim American Society Immigrant Justice Center has filed similar complaints on behalf of seven other Muslims with the Department of Homeland Security.

Once someone has signed on as an informant, the first assignment is often a fishing expedition. Informants have said in court testimony that FBI handlers have tasked them with infiltrating mosques without a specific target or “predicate”—the term of art for the reason why someone is investigated. They were, they say, directed to surveil law-abiding Americans with no indication of criminal intent.

“The FBI is now telling agents they can go into houses of worship without probable cause,” says Farhana Khera, executive director of the San Francisco-based civil rights group Muslim Advocates. “That raises serious constitutional issues.”

Tidwell himself will soon have to defend these practices in court—he’s among those named in a class-action lawsuit (PDF) over an informant’s allegation that the FBI used him to spy on a number of mosques in Southern California.

That informant, Craig Monteilh, is a convicted felon who made his money ripping off cocaine dealers before becoming an asset for the Drug Enforcement Administration and later the FBI. A well-muscled 49-year-old with a shaved scalp, Monteilh has been a particularly versatile snitch: He’s pretended to be a white supremacist, a Russian hit man, and a Sicilian drug trafficker. He says when the FBI sent him into mosques (posing as a French-Syrian Muslim), he was told to act as a decoy for any radicals who might seek to convert him—and to look for information to help flip congregants as informants, such as immigration status, extramarital relationships, criminal activities, and drug use. “Blackmail is the ultimate goal,” Monteilh says.

Officially, the FBI denies it blackmails informants. “We are prohibited from using threats or coercion,” says Kathleen Wright, an FBI spokeswoman. (She acknowledges that the bureau has prevented helpful informants from being deported.)

FBI veterans say reality is different from the official line. “We could go to a source and say, ‘We know you’re having an affair. If you work with us, we won’t tell your wife,’” says a former top FBI counterterrorism official. “Would we actually call the wife if the source doesn’t cooperate? Not always. You do get into ethics here—is this the right thing to do?—but legally this isn’t a question. If you obtained the information legally, then you can use it however you want.”

But eventually, Monteilh’s operation imploded in spectacular fashion. In December 2007, police in Irvine, California, charged him with bilking two women out of $157,000 as part of an alleged human growth hormone scam. Monteilh has maintained it was actually part of an FBI investigation, and that agents instructed him to plead guilty to a grand-theft charge and serve eight months so as not to blow his cover. The FBI would “clean up” the charge later, Monteilh says he was told. That didn’t happen, and Monteilh has alleged in court filings that the government put him in danger by letting fellow inmates know that he was an informant. (FBI agents told me the bureau wouldn’t advise an informant to plead guilty to a state criminal charge; instead, agents would work with local prosecutors to delay or dismiss the charge.)

The class-action suit, filed by the ACLU, alleges that Tidwell, then the bureau’s Los Angeles-based assistant director, signed off on Monteilh’s operation. And Tidwell says he’s eager to defend the bureau in court. “There is not the blanket suspicion of the Muslim community that they think there is,” Tidwell says. “We’re just looking for the bad guys. Anything the FBI does is going to be interpreted as monitoring Muslims. I would tell [critics]: ‘Do you really think I have the time and money to monitor all the mosques and Arab American organizations? We don’t. And I don’t want to.’”
 

Shady informants, of course, are as old as the FBI; one saying in the bureau is, “To catch the devil, you have to go to hell.” Another is, “The only problem worse than having an informant is not having an informant.” Back in the ’80s, the FBI made a cottage industry of drug stings—a source of countless Hollywood plots, often involving briefcases full of cocaine and Miami as the backdrop.

It’s perhaps fitting, then, that one of the earliest known terrorism stings also unfolded in Miami, though it wasn’t launched by the FBI. Instead the protagonist was a Canadian bodyguard and, as a Fort Lauderdale, Florida, newspaper put it in 2002, “a 340-pound man with a fondness for firearms and strippers.” He subscribed to Soldier of Fortune and hung around a police supply store on a desolate stretch of Hollywood Boulevard, north of Miami.

Howard Gilbert aspired to be a CIA agent but lacked pertinent experience. So to pad his résumé, he hatched a plan to infiltrate a mosque in the suburb of Pembroke Pines by posing as a Muslim convert named Saif Allah. He told congregants that he was a former Marine and a security expert, and one night in late 2000, he gave a speech about the plight of Palestinians.

“That was truly the night that launched me into the terrorist umbrella of South Florida,” Gilbert would later brag to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Nineteen-year-old congregant Imran Mandhai, stirred by the oration, approached Gilbert and asked if he could provide him weapons and training. Gilbert, who had been providing information to the FBI, contacted his handlers and asked for more money to work on the case. (He later claimed that the bureau had paid him $6,000.) But he ultimately couldn’t deliver—the target had sensed something fishy about his new friend.

The bureau also brought in Elie Assaad, a seasoned informant originally from Lebanon. He told Mandhai that he was an associate of Osama bin Laden tasked with establishing a training camp in the United States. Gilbert suggested attacking electrical substations in South Florida, and Assaad offered to provide a weapon. FBI agents then arrested Mandhai; he pleaded guilty in federal court and was sentenced to nearly 14 years in prison. It was a model of what would become the bureau’s primary counterterrorism M.O.—identifying a target, offering a plot, and then pouncing.

"These guys were homeless types," one former FBI official says about the alleged Sears Tower plotters. "And yes, we did show a picture where somebody was taking the oath to Al Qaeda. So what?": Illustration: Jeffrey Smith“These guys were homeless types,” one former FBI official says about the alleged Sears Tower plotters. “And yes, we did show a picture where somebody was taking the oath to Al Qaeda. So what?” Illustration: Jeffrey SmithGilbert himself didn’t get to bask in his glory; he never worked for the FBI again and died in 2004. Assaad, for his part, ran into some trouble when his pregnant wife called 911. She said Assaad had beaten and choked her to the point that she became afraid for her unborn baby; he was arrested, but in the end his wife refused to press charges.

The jail stint didn’t keep Assaad from working for the FBI on what would turn out to be perhaps the most high-profile terrorism bust of the post-9/11 era. In 2005, the bureau got a tip from an informant about a group of alleged terrorists in Miami’s Liberty City neighborhood. The targets were seven men—some African American, others Haitian—who called themselves the “Seas of David” and ascribed to religious beliefs that blended Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The men were martial-arts enthusiasts who operated out of a dilapidated warehouse, where they also taught classes for local kids. The Seas of David’s leader was Narseal Batiste, the son of a Louisiana preacher, father of four, and a former Guardian Angel.

In response to the informant’s tip, the FBI had him wear a wire during meetings with the men, but he wasn’t able to engage them in conversations about terrorist plots. So he introduced the group to Assaad, now playing an Al Qaeda operative. At the informant’s request, Batiste took photographs of the FBI office in North Miami Beach and was caught on tape discussing a notion to bomb the Sears Tower in Chicago. Assaad led Batiste, and later the other men, in swearing an oath to Al Qaeda, though the ceremony (recorded and entered into evidence at trial) bore a certain “Who’s on First?” flavor:

God’s pledge is upon me, and so is his compact,” Assaad said as he and Batiste sat in his car. “Repeat after me.”

“Okay. Allah’s pledge is upon you.”

“No, you have to repeat exactly. God’s pledge is upon me, and so is his compact. You have to repeat.”

Ultimately, the undercover recordings suggest that Batiste was mostly trying to shake down his “terrorist” friend.

“Well, I can’t say Allah?” Batiste asked.

“Yeah, but this is an English version because Allah, you can say whatever you want, but—”

“Okay. Of course.”

“Okay.”

Allah’s pledge is upon me. And so is his compact,” Batiste said, adding: “That means his angels, right?”

“Uh, huh. To commit myself,” Assaad continued.

To commit myself.”

Brother.”

Brother,” Batiste repeated.

“Uh. That’s, uh, what’s your, uh, what’s your name, brother?”

“Ah, Brother Naz.”

“Okay. To commit myself,” the informant repeated.

To commit myself.”

Brother.”

Brother.”

“You’re not—you have to say your name!” Assaad cried.

“Naz. Naz.”

“Uh. To commit myself. I am Brother Naz. You can say, ‘To commit myself.’”

To commit myself, Brother Naz.”

Things went smoothly until Assaad got to a reference to being “protective of the secrecy of the oath and to the directive of Al Qaeda.”

Here Batiste stopped. “And to…what is the directive of?”

Directive of Al Qaeda,” the informant answered.

“So now let me ask you this part here. That means that Al Qaeda will be over us?”

“No, no, no, no, no,” Assaad said. “It’s an alliance.”

“Oh. Well…” Batiste said, sounding resigned.

“It’s an alliance, but it’s like a commitment, by, uh, like, we respect your rules. You respect our rules,” Assaad explained.

“Uh, huh,” Batiste mumbled.

And to the directive of Al Qaeda,” Assaad said, waiting for Batiste to repeat.

“Okay, can I say an alliance?” Batiste asked. “And to the alliance of Al Qaeda?

Of the alliance, of the directive—” Assaad said, catching himself. “You know what you can say? And to the directive and the alliance of Al Qaeda.”

“Okay, directive and alliance of Al Qaeda,” Batiste said.

“Okay,” the informant said. “Now officially you have commitment and we have alliance between each other. And welcome, Brother Naz, to Al Qaeda.”

Or not. Ultimately, the undercover recordings made by Assaad suggest that Batiste, who had a failing drywall business and had trouble making the rent for the warehouse, was mostly trying to shake down his “terrorist” friend. After first asking the informant for $50,000, Batiste is recorded in conversation after conversation asking how soon he’ll have the cash.

“Let me ask you a question,” he says in one exchange. “Once I give you an account number, how long do you think it’s gonna take to get me something in?”

“So you is scratching my back, [I’m] scratching your back—we’re like this,” Assaad dodged.

“Right,” Batiste said.

“When we put forth a case like that to suggest to the American public that we’re protecting them, we’re not protecting them. The agents back in the bullpen, they know it’s not true.”

The money never materialized. Neither did any specific terrorist plot. Nevertheless, federal prosecutors charged (PDF) Batiste and his cohorts—whom the media dubbed the Liberty City Seven—with conspiracy to support terrorism, destroy buildings, and levy war against the US government. Perhaps the key piece of evidence was the video of Assaad’s Al Qaeda “oath.” Assaad was reportedly paid $85,000 for his work on the case; the other informant got $21,000.

James J. Wedick, a former FBI agent, was hired to review the Liberty City case as a consultant for the defense. In his opinion, the informant simply picked low-hanging fruit. “These guys couldn’t find their way down the end of the street,” Wedick says. “They were homeless types. And, yes, we did show a picture where somebody was taking the oath to Al Qaeda. So what? They didn’t care. They only cared about the money. When we put forth a case like that to suggest to the American public that we’re protecting them, we’re not protecting them. The agents back in the bullpen, they know it’s not true.”

Indeed, the Department of Justice had a difficult time winning convictions in the Liberty City case. In three separate trials, juries deadlocked on most of the charges, eventually acquitting one of the defendants (charges against another were dropped) and convicting five of crimes that landed them in prison for between 7 to 13 years. When it was all over, Assaad told ABC News’ Brian Ross that he had a special sense for terrorists: “God gave me a certain gift.”

But he didn’t have a gift for sensing trouble. After the Liberty City case, Assaad moved on to Texas and founded a low-rent modeling agency. In March, when police tried to pull him over, he led them in a chase through El Paso (with his female passenger jumping out at one point), hit a cop with his car, and ended up rolling his SUV on the freeway. Reached by phone, Assaad declined to comment. He’s saving his story, he says, for a book he’s pitching to publishers.

Not all of the more than 500 terrorism prosecutions reviewed in this investigation are so action-movie ready. But many do have an element of mystery. For example, though recorded conversations are often a key element of prosecutions, in many sting cases the FBI didn’t record large portions of the investigation, particularly during initial encounters or at key junctures during the sting. When those conversations come up in court, the FBI and prosecutors will instead rely on the account of an informant with a performance bonus on the line.

Mohamed Osman Mohamud was an 18-yeaer old wannabe rapper when an FBI agent asked if he'd like to "help the brothers." Eventually the FBI gave him a fake car bomb and a phone to blow it up during a Christmas tree lighting.: Illustration: Jeffrey SmithMohamed Osman Mohamud was an 18-year old wannabe rapper when an FBI agent asked if he’d like to “help the brothers.” Eventually the FBI gave him a fake car bomb and a phone to blow it up during a Christmas tree lighting. Illustration: Jeffrey SmithOne of the most egregious examples of a missing recording involves a convoluted tale that begins in the early morning hours of November 1, 2009, with a date-rape allegation on the campus of Oregon State University. Following a Halloween party, 18-year-old Mohamed Osman Mohamud, a Somali-born US citizen, went home with another student. The next morning, the woman reported to police that she believed she had been drugged.

Campus police brought Mohamud in for questioning and a polygraph test; FBI agents, who for reasons that have not been disclosed had been keeping an eye on the teen for about a month, were also there. Mohamud claimed that the sex was consensual, and a drug test given to his accuser eventually came back negative.

During the interrogation, OSU police asked Mohamud if a search of his laptop would indicate that he’d researched date-rape drugs. He said it wouldn’t and gave them permission to examine his hard drive. Police copied its entire contents and turned the data over to the FBI—which discovered, it later alleged in court documents, that Mohamud had emailed someone in northwest Pakistan talking about jihad.

Soon after his run-in with police, Mohamud began to receive emails from “Bill Smith,” a self-described terrorist who encouraged him to “help the brothers.” “Bill,” an FBI agent, arranged for Mohamud to meet one of his associates in a Portland hotel room. There, Mohamud told the agents that he’d been thinking of jihad since age 15. When asked what he might want to attack, Mohamud suggested the city’s Christmas tree lighting ceremony. The agents set Mohamud up with a van that he thought was filled with explosives. On November 26, 2010, Mohamud and one of the agents drove the van to Portland’s Pioneer Square, and Mohamud dialed the phone to trigger the explosion. Nothing. He dialed again. Suddenly FBI agents appeared and dragged him away as he kicked and yelled, “Allahu akbar!” Prosecutors charged him with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction; his trial is pending.

The FBI’s defenders say the bureau must flush out terrorist sympathizers before they act. “What would you do?” asks one. “Wait for him to figure it out himself?”

The Portland case has been held up as an example of how FBI stings can make a terrorist where there might have been only an angry loser. “This is a kid who, it can be reasonably inferred, barely had the capacity to put his shoes on in the morning,” Wedick says.

But Tidwell, the retired FBI official, says Mohamud was exactly the kind of person the FBI needs to flush out. “That kid was pretty specific about what he wanted to do,” he says. “What would you do in response? Wait for him to figure it out himself? If you’ll notice, most of these folks [targeted in stings] plead guilty. They don’t say, ‘I’ve been entrapped,’ or, ‘I was immature.’” That’s true—though it’s also true that defendants and their attorneys know that the odds of succeeding at trial are vanishingly small. Nearly two-thirds of all terrorism prosecutions since 9/11 have ended in guilty pleas, and experts hypothesize that it’s difficult for such defendants to get a fair trial. “The plots people are accused of being part of—attacking subway systems or trying to bomb a building—are so frightening that they can overwhelm a jury,” notes David Cole, a Georgetown University law professor who has studied these types of cases.
 

But the Mohamud story wasn’t quite over—it would end up changing the course of another case on the opposite side of the country. In Maryland, rookie FBI agent Keith Bender had been working a sting against 21-year-old Antonio Martinez, a recent convert to Islam who’d posted inflammatory comments on Facebook (“The sword is cummin the reign of oppression is about 2 cease inshallah”). An FBI informant had befriended Martinez and, in recorded conversations, they talked about attacking a military recruiting station.

Just as the sting was building to its climax, Martinez saw news reports about the Mohamud case, and how there was an undercover operative involved. He worried: Was he, too, being lured into a sting? He called his supposed terrorist contact: “I’m not falling for no BS,” he told him.

Faced with the risk of losing the target, the informant—whose name is not revealed in court records—met with Martinez and pulled him back into the plot. But while the informant had recorded numerous previous meetings with Martinez, no recording was made for this key conversation; in affidavits, the FBI blamed a technical glitch. Two weeks later, on December 8, 2010, Martinez parked what he thought was a car bomb in front of a recruitment center and was arrested when he tried to detonate it.

Frances Townsend, who served as homeland security adviser to President George W. Bush, concedes that missing recordings in terrorism stings seem suspicious. But, she says, it’s more common than you might think: “I can’t tell you how many times I had FBI agents in front of me and I yelled, ‘You have hundreds of hours of recordings, but you didn’t record this meeting.’ Sometimes, I admit, they might not record something intentionally”—for fear, she says, that the target will notice. “But more often than not, it’s a technical issue.”

Wedick, the former FBI agent, is less forgiving. “With the technology the FBI now has access to—these small devices that no one would ever suspect are recorders or transmitters—there’s no excuse not to tape interactions between the informant and the target,” he says. “So why in many of these terrorism stings are meetings not recorded? Because it’s convenient for the FBI not to record.”

So what really happens as an informant works his target, sometimes over a period of years, and eases him over the line? For the answer to that, consider once more the case of James Cromitie, the Walmart stocker with a hatred of Jews. Cromitie was the ringleader in the much-publicized Bronx synagogue bombing plot that went to trial last year. But a closer look at the record reveals that while Cromitie was no one’s idea of a nice guy, whatever leadership existed in the plot emanated from his sharply dressed, smooth-talking friend Maqsood, a.k.a. FBI informant Shahed Hussain.

A Pakistani refugee who claimed to be friends with Benazir Bhutto and had a soft spot for fancy cars, Hussain was by then one of the FBI’s more successful counterterrorism informants. (See our timeline of Hussain’s career as an informant.) He’d originally come to the bureau’s attention when he was busted in a DMV scam that charged test takers $300 to $500 for a license. Having “worked off” those charges, he’d transitioned from indentured informant to paid snitch, earning as much as $100,000 per assignment.

At trial, informant Hussain admitted that he created the “impression” that his target would make big money by bombing synagogues in the Bronx.

Hussain was assigned to visit a mosque in Newburgh, where he would start conversations with strangers about jihad. “I was finding people who would be harmful, and radicals, and identify them for the FBI,” Hussain said during Cromitie’s trial. Most of the mosque’s congregants were poor, and Hussain, who posed as a wealthy businessman and always arrived in one of his four luxury cars—a Hummer, a Mercedes, two different BMWs—made plenty of friends. But after more than a year working the local Muslim community, he had not identified a single actual target.

Then, one day in June 2008, Cromitie approached Hussain in the parking lot outside the mosque. The two became friends, and Hussain clearly had Cromitie’s number. “Allah didn’t bring you here to work for Walmart,” he told him at one point.

Cromitie, who once claimed he could “con the corn from the cob,” had a history of mental instability. He told a psychiatrist that he saw and heard things that weren’t there and had twice tried to commit suicide. He told tall tales, most of them entirely untrue—like the one about how his brother stole $126 million worth of stuff from Tiffany.

Exactly what Hussain and Cromitie talked about in the first four months of their relationship isn’t known, because the FBI did not record those conversations. Based on later conversations, it’s clear that Hussain cultivated Cromitie assiduously. He took the target, all expenses paid by the FBI, to an Islamic conference in Philadelphia to meet Imam Siraj Wahhaj, a prominent African-American Muslim leader. He helped pay Cromitie’s rent. He offered to buy him a barbershop. Finally, he asked Cromitie to recruit others and help him bomb synagogues.

On April 7, 2009, at 2:45 p.m., Cromitie and Hussain sat on a couch inside an FBI cover house on Shipp Street in Newburgh. A hidden camera was trained on the living room.

“I don’t want anyone to get hurt,” Cromitie told the informant.

“Who? I—”

“Think about it before you speak,” Cromitie interrupted.

“If there is American soldiers, I don’t care,” Hussain said, trying a fresh angle.

“Hold up,” Cromitie agreed. “If it’s American soldiers, I don’t even care.”

“If it’s kids, I care,” Hussain said. “If it’s women, I care.”

“I care. That’s what I’m worried about. And I’m going to tell you, I don’t care if it’s a whole synagogue of men.”

“Yep.”

“I would take ’em down, I don’t even care. ‘Cause I know they are the ones.”

“We have the equipment to do it.”

“See, see, I’m not worried about nothing. Ya know? What I’m worried about is my safety,” Cromitie said.

“Oh, yeah, safety comes first.”

“I want to get in and I want to get out.”

“Trust me,” Hussain assured.

At Cromitie’s trial, Hussain would admit that he created the—in his word—”impression” that Cromitie would make a lot of money by bombing synagogues.

“I can make you $250,000, but you don’t want it, brother,” he once told Cromitie when the target seemed hesitant. “What can I tell you?” (Asked about the exchange in court, Hussain said that “$250,000” was simply a code word for the bombing plot—a code word, he admitted, that only he knew.)

But whether for ideology or money, Cromitie did recruit three others, and they did take photographs of Stewart International Airport in Newburgh as well as of synagogues in the Bronx. On May 20, 2009, Hussain drove Cromitie to the Bronx, where Cromitie put what he believed were bombs inside cars he thought had been parked by Hussain’s coconspirators. Once all the dummy bombs were placed, Cromitie headed back to the getaway car—Hussain was in the driver’s seat—and then a SWAT team surrounded the car.

At trial, Cromitie told the judge: “I am not a violent person. I’ve never been a terrorist, and I never will be. I got myself into this stupid mess. I know I said a lot of stupid stuff.” He was sentenced to 25 years.

For his trouble, the FBI paid Hussain $96,000. Then he moved on to another case, another mosque, somewhere in the United States.

For this project, Mother Jones partnered with the University of California-Berkeley’s Investigative Reporting Program, headed by Lowell Bergman, where Trevor Aaronson was an investigative fellow. The Fund for Investigative Journalism also provided support for Aaronson’s reporting. Lauren Ellis and Hamed Aleaziz contributed additional research.

UPDATE: On September 28, Rezwan Ferdaus, a 26-year-old graduate of Northeastern University, was arrested and charged with providing resources to a foreign terrorist organization and attempting to destroy national defense premises. Ferdaus, according to the FBI, planned to blow up both the Pentagon and Capitol Building with a “large remote controlled aircraft filled with C-4 plastic explosives.”

The case was part of a nearly ten-month investigation led by the FBI. Not surprisingly, Ferdaus’ case fits a pattern detailed by Trevor Aaronson in this article: the FBI provided Ferdaus with the explosives and materials needed to pull off the plot. In this case, two undercover FBI employees, who Ferdaus believed were al Qaeda members, gave Ferdaus $7,500 to purchase an F-86 Sabre model airplane that Ferdaus hoped to fill with explosives. Right before his arrest, the FBI employees gave Ferdaus, who lived at home with his parents, the explosives he requested to pull off his attack. And just how did the FBI come to meet Ferdaus? An informant with a criminal record introduced Ferdaus to the supposed al Qaeda members.

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Alaska asylum seekers are Indigenous Siberians from Russia

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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Two Russian Indigenous Siberians were so scared of having to fight the war in Ukraine, they chanced everything to take a small boat across the treacherous Bering Sea to reach American soil, Alaska’s senior U.S. senator said after talking with the two.

The two, identified as males by a resident, landed earlier this month near Gambell, on Alaska’s St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Strait, where they asked for asylum.

“They feared for their lives because of Russia, who is targeting minority populations, for conscription into service in Ukraine,” Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said Saturday during a candidate forum at the Alaska Federation of Natives conference in Anchorage.

“It is very clear to me that these individuals were in fear, so much in fear of their own government that they risked their lives and took a 15-foot skiff across those open waters,” Murkowski said when answering a question about Arctic policy.

“It is clear that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is focused on a military conquest at the expense of his own people,” Murkowski said. “He’s got one hand on Ukraine and he’s got the other on the Arctic, so we have to be eyes wide open on the Arctic.”

Murkowski said she met with the two Siberians recently but didn’t provide more details about exactly when or where the meeting took place or where their asylum process stood. She was not available after the forum for follow-up questions.

Murkowski’s office on Oct. 6 announced their request for asylum, saying the men reportedly fled one of the coastal communities on Russia’s east coast.

A village elder in Gambell, 87-year-old Bruce Boolowon, is believed to be the last living Alaska National Guard member who helped rescue 11 U.S. Navy men who were in a plane that was shot down by Russian MIGs over the Bering Sea in 1955. The plane crash-landed on St. Lawrence Island.

Gambell, an Alaska Native community of about 600 people, is about 36 miles (58 kilometers) from Russia’s Chukotka Peninsula in Siberia.

Even though one of the Russians spoke English pretty well, two Russian-born women from Gambell were brought in to translate. Both women married local men and became naturalized U.S. citizens, said Boolowon, who is Siberian Yupik.

Russians landing in Gambell during the Cold War was commonplace, but the visits were not nefarious, Boolowon said. Since St. Lawrence Island is so close to Russia, people routinely traveled back and forth to visit relatives.

But these two men seeking asylum were unknown to the people of Gambell.

“They were foreigners and didn’t have any passports, so they put them in jail,” he told The Associated Press last week.

The two men spent the night in the jailhouse, but townspeople in Gambell brought them food, both Alaska Native dishes and items bought at a grocery store.

“They were pretty full; they ate a lot,” Boolowon said.

“The next day, a Coast Guard C-130 with some officials came and picked them up,” he said, adding that was the last he heard about the Russians.

Since then, officials have been tight-lipped.

“The individuals were transported to Anchorage for inspection, which includes a screening and vetting process, and then subsequently processed in accordance with applicable U.S. immigration laws under the Immigration and Nationality Act,” was all a Department of Homeland Security spokesman said in an email this past week when asked for an update on the asylum process and if and where the men were being held.

Margaret Stock, an immigration attorney in Anchorage, said it’s very unlikely information about the Russians will ever be released.

“The U.S. government is supposed to keep all of this confidential, so I don’t know why they would be telling anybody anything,” she told the AP.

Instead, it would be up to the two Russians to publicize their situation, which could put their families in Russia at risk. “I don’t know why they would want to do that,” Stock said.

Thousands of Russian men fled the country after Putin in September announced a mobilization to call up about 300,000 men with past military experience to bolster forces in Ukraine.

Messages sent last week and again on Saturday to the Russian consular office in San Francisco were not returned.

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Ukranians left powerless after Russia’s ‘massive attack’

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed Russia launched a “massive attack” overnight, targeting critical infrastructure in several regions.

Over a million Ukranians have been left without power as Russian strikes targeted energy facilities across the country.

Mr Zelensky announced that 36 air strikes had occurred on Saturday night and while most were shot down, some had impacted the country’s energy grid.

The Ukrainian President condemned the “massive act” as “typical” of terrorists trying to intimidate their opposition.

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“The aggressor continues to terrorise our country. At night, the enemy launched a massive attack: 36 rockets, most of which were shot down … These are vile strikes on critical objects. Typical tactics of terrorists,” Zelensky said on social media.

“Of course, we do not yet have the technical ability to shoot down 100% of Russian missiles and attack drones. We will gradually come to this – with the help of our partners, I’m confident of this.”

According to Ukrainian officials, almost a third of Ukraine’s power states and energy generating facilities have been destroyed by Russian airstrikes since Monday last week.

The deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency confirmed that 1.5 million are now disconnected from the main grid and having to make do without electricity.

“As of now, 672,000 subscribers have been disconnected in Khmelnytskyi region, 188,400 in Mykolaiv region, 102,000 in Volyn region, 242,000 in Cherkasy region, 174,790 in Rivne region, 61,913 in Kirovograd region and 10,500 in Odessa region,” Kyrylo Tymoshenko said on social media.

The move to destroy infrastructure is perceived as a change in Russia’s strategy to cause damage before winter in retaliation for Ukraine’s advancing forces.

Ukrainian troops have continued to advance after breaking through Russia’s defences on the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson.

The Russian occupied city of Kherson is expected to be the site of the next major showdown in the conflict with warnings for civilians to leave an indicator that Ukrainian troops are closing in.

“Due to the tense situation at the front, the increased danger of massive shelling of the city and the threat of terrorist attacks, all civilians must immediately leave the city and cross to the left [east] bank of the Dnipro!” said a statement posted on Telegram.

“Take care of the safety of your family and friends! Do not forget documents, money, valuables and clothes.”

Thousands of civilians have fled Kherson in recent days across the Dnieper River as the city prepares itself.

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Trump Mar-a-Lago probe proceeds on two tracks: One public, one private

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Former president Donald Trump is seen on a screen as the House select committee, investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, holds a hearing on Oct. 13, 2022, in Washington.

Former president Donald Trump is seen on a screen as the House select committee, investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, holds a hearing on Oct. 13, 2022, in Washington. (Jabin Botsford/Washington Post )

WASHINGTON – The FBI’s unprecedented criminal probe of a former president has unfolded on two tracks in the 11 weeks since agents searched Donald Trump’s Florida residence and club – one mostly public, the other mostly behind closed doors.

In the more public facing part, litigation over the appointment of a special master to sift through thousands of seized documents has reverberated through every level of the federal court system, with the special master – essentially an outside expert – voicing skepticism about Trump’s claims that some of the material should be shielded from the FBI.

In contrast, the bureau’s investigative activity is harder to track, though some details are slowly trickling out. Agents have interviewed multiple witnesses about the handling of government papers at Mar-a-Lago. The Washington Post reported last week that a Trump employee told federal agents that he moved boxes of documents at Mar-a-Lago at the specific direction of the former president, and the FBI has video surveillance to back it up.

Experts say those pieces of evidence – combined with repeated indications in court filings that prosecutors suspect Trump’s team purposefully failed to comply with a subpoena seeking all documents marked classified – suggest the government could be building criminal cases alleging obstruction and destruction of government property.

Even as the probe moves forward, Trump is under legal scrutiny on multiple other fronts. Among them: the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol has subpoenaed testimony and documents from the former president, and the Justice Department is conducting a sprawling criminal investigation of how Trump and his advisers handled the post-election period.

No big public developments are expected in the Mar-a-Lago investigation until after the Nov. 8 midterms – in part because of a long-standing Justice Department practice to avoid doing anything that could be seen as helping one side or another in the election, and in part because the special master is still sorting through the less-sensitive material seized at the Florida property. At the same time, Trump and his supporters have openly talked about him launching a 2024 presidential campaign, a move that would instantly reshape the political landscape.

“You know how just before a storm breaks, there is a time of calm?” said Paul Rosenzweig, a national security consultant. “We are sort of there. This is the calm before the storm.”

At Trump’s request, Brooklyn federal Judge Raymond J. Dearie was appointed to sift through the 13,000 seized documents and set aside any that should be protected from investigators because of attorney-client or executive privileges. An appeals court has ruled that the special master’s review should not include the 103 classified documents seized in that search.

That review is underway. Trump’s attorneys and prosecutors have agreed on a vendor to upload the more than 20,000 pages of seized unclassified materials so both parties can digitally review them. Trump’s team examines the documents first, marking any that they deem potentially privileged. The government then reviews those documents, with Dearie stepping in to settle any disputes.

At a progress hearing Tuesday, Dearie sounded frustrated with both sides. He reproached Trump’s lawyers for claiming privileges in an initial batch of documents without providing any evidence to back up their claim.

“‘Where’s the beef?’ I need some beef,” the 78-year-old judge said.

Even as Dearie moves ahead with the review, the Justice Department is still fighting the appointment of a special master in court. Judge Aileen M. Cannon, a federal judge in Florida, initially ordered the appointment of a special master in August, barring criminal investigators from using any of the seized materials, including the ones marked as classified, until the review is complete.

The Justice Department’s successful appeal of a portion of Cannon’s ruling enabled prosecutors and FBI agents to immediately regain access to the classified materials. Trump’s team filed a petition to the Supreme Court to overturn part of the decision by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, but the justices rejected it.

Each legal filing in the case has been closely watched by news reporters and the public, with Trump supporters cheering Cannon’s initial decision to appoint a special master, and critics of the former president heralding the skepticism Dearie has expressed over Trump’s legal claims.

Now, the Justice Department is appealing the entire appointment of the special master to the 11th Circuit, hoping to relieve Dearie of his duties and regain access to all 13,000 seized documents.

“If the appeals court agrees with the government, then the whole referral to the special master will be over,” said Mary McCord, who served as acting assistant attorney general for national security during President Barack Obama’s administration. “It has the potential to be a very minimal part of the investigation.”

The center of any criminal case would most likely be the classified documents found by the FBI, some of which contained extremely sensitive government secrets including about a foreign country’s nuclear capabilities. On Friday, The Post reported that some of the seized documents contained highly restricted information about Iran’s missile systems and about intelligence work aimed at China.

But Jim Walden, a former federal prosecutor, said the 13,000 unclassified documents also could be critical to prosecutors, because they could shed light on why and how the classified material was brought to Mar-a-Lago and who saw them once they left the White House.

The Justice Department “wouldn’t be pushing as hard” to appeal the appointment of a special master “if there weren’t some serious national security questions that remain unanswered,” Walden said. “Those [13,000] documents are very critical.”

Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Justice Department have repeatedly declined to comment on their efforts, citing the ongoing criminal investigation.

Trump’s spokesman, Taylor Budowich, has denounced the investigation and has accused the Biden administration weaponizing law enforcement and fabricating “a Document Hoax in a desperate attempt to retain political power.”

If his appointment stands, Dearie has until early December to complete the review of the documents and settle any disputes over which privileges Trump can assert. But the appeals court will hear arguments from both sides next month, with a decision on whether to stop the special master review expected soon after.

In the meantime, the FBI likely will continue seeking witnesses who can provide information about the handling of documents at Mar-a-Lago, including whether Trump or his representatives deliberately hid documents from the Justice Department or falsely claimed to have turned over all classified materials while restricted material remained on the premises.

Among the questions they will try to answer, legal experts said, is what the former president knew about the documents and whether his possession of those materials at Mar-a-Lago may have endangered national security.

There is also the question – raised by officials at the National Archives and Records Administration – of whether all government records in Trump’s possession after he left office have been returned to government custody, as required by the Presidential Records Act, and whether some documents may have been stashed somewhere other than Mar-a-Lago.

“This is all the working going on behind the scenes that may never be revealed,” said Javed Ali, a senior official at the National Security Council during the Trump administration who now teaches at the University of Michigan. “Who may have had access to those documents? And what information may they have gleaned? And what may have resulted from his having these documents?”

McCord said building a case requires more than just interviewing witnesses and reviewing documents. She suspects that at this stage in the investigation, the government is examining legal precedent and strategizing on how prosecutors would respond to potential defense arguments in court.

For example, the Justice Department already reasoned in a recent court filing that, even if Trump formally claims and provides evidence that he declassified the documents he kept, it wouldn’t undermine a potential obstruction case. That’s because the subpoena asked his team to return all documents “marked as classified” – not those that were classified.

“There’s are other things besides fact gathering that take place at this stage. There’s legal research,” McCord said. “All of that work can just be going on, and that is a substantial amount of work. It’s not just that you go out and gather evidence and then file charges the next day.”

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Elon Musk’s tweet on Crimea is all wrong – opinion

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Elon Musk’s by-now infamous tweet on how to achieve peace in Ukraine stated: “Crimea is formally part of Russia as it has been since 1783. (Until Khrushchev’s mistake).”

Ukraine-Russia Peace:- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).- Water supply to Crimea assured.- Ukraine remains neutral.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022

He is totally wrong about that. As Michael Sheitelman, an Israeli writer living in Kyiv has observed, Crimea has never really been part of Russia, or rather of an independent state called the Russian Federation, in which Vladimir Putin is president (for life).

In a very similar way, it can’t be said that the Republic of Austria, created in its current state in 1955, controlled the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary or Bosnia. Those territories were part of the great Hapsburg empire which, partly by conquest and partly by dynastic marriages, owned all those territories as well as a number of others, including at various points, Spain, Portugal, Belgium and much of the western hemisphere. Austria was not a sovereign country but one of the lands of the Hapsburg empire.

Elon Musk Twitter account is seen through Twitter logo in this illustration taken, April 25, 2022. (credit: DADO RUVIC/REUTERS ILLUSTRATION)

Thus Crimea was part of the Romanov empire or Russia of the tsar. Empress Catherine II added Crimea to the Romanov’s territorial possessions in 1783. But since Russia was equally part of the Romanov empire, Musk could have easily declared that the Russian Federation has been part of Crimea since 1783, and part of Ukraine since 1654, which is when Moscow took over Ukraine.

In other words, Crimea has never been part of the Russian Federation. Moreover, since both countries were created for the first time in 1991, the Russian Federation recognized Ukraine in its current borders in a number of treaties and was paying Kyiv rent for its naval base in Crimea until the 2014 annexation. 

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, moreover, committed Russia not to use military force or economic pressure against Ukraine when Ukraine agreed to adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and give up its Soviet-era nukes.

When Empress Catherine conquered Crimea for her empire, it was populated by Crimean Tatars. That population – including women and children – was summarily deported from the peninsula in 1944 on Stalin’s spurious charge of collaborating with the Nazi occupation. Other people suffered the same collective punishment, including the Chechens, but they were eventually allowed by the Soviet authorities to return to their homelands. 

Not so Crimean Tatars. They were forced to remain in Central Asia; those who tried to return were arrested and sent back. Instead, the government brought in and settled ethnic Russians from other parts of the Soviet Union, who are currently a majority population in Crimea.

However, for two generations the Tatars longed to return to their land – something that Israeli Jews can readily understand and appreciate. But that could take place only after Mikhail Gorbachev initiated his policy of liberalization in the second half of the 1980s.

Crimean Tatars who are after all the indigenous population of Crimea, were strongly opposed to the Russian annexation. Since 2014, they have been persecuted and harassed by the Russian security apparatus, activists have been arrested and disappeared, but they are a substantial – and vocal – minority demanding that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.

And now about Khrushchev’s mistake. Indeed, in 1954, the Soviet government transferred the Crimean Peninsula from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (not to be confused with today’s Russian Federation) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (also a place that is not today’s Ukraine).

That was done for administrative reasons because the only overland connection to Crimea was through Ukrainian territory, and Ukrainian regions provided water for the parched peninsula. Of course Khrushchev never expected the two republics to secede from the Soviet Union – as they both did in 1991 – and become independent sovereign states.

But that does not mean that Putin has any claim on Crimea. Modern states are by and large the creation of the past 100 years. Their borders are often arbitrarily drawn and are the result of happenstance. This includes the Republic of South Africa (formerly the Union of South Africa), the country where Musk was born.

In many instances, the drawing of those borders was accompanied by considerable bloodshed, communal violence and ethnic cleansing. Still, in many countries people of different ethnicity, language or religion end up living side by side.

However, after the disaster of World War II, the community of nations decided to recognize existing borders as they are and not alter them except in special circumstances – and never by a war of aggression.

There have been exceptions, but by and large, the rule held. One such exception took place in 1990 when Saddam Hussein decided to annex Kuwait. Then, a US-led coalition defeated the Iraqi invasion force and liberated Kuwait.

Putin illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and in 2022 started an all-out war in the middle of Europe, annexing the territories he has partially occupied. He should not be allowed to keep any of his illegal gains, as Musk suggests, but taught the same lesson as Saddam was in 1990. 

Born in the USSR, the writer has lived in the US since 1975, having emigrated on an Israeli visa during the Let My People Go campaign for Soviet Jewry. He has worked as an economist for 35 years, including positions at Standard and Poor’s and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Over the past 10 years, he has published four murder mysteries set in Moscow in the 1960s.

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