Categories
Saved Web Pages

EXPOSED: Before Ukraine blew up Kerch Bridge, British spies plotted it

AUDACIONS-COVER-IMAGE.jpg

The Grayzone has obtained an April 2022 presentation drawn up for senior British intelligence officers hashing out an elaborate scheme to blow up Crimea’s Kerch Bridge with the involvement of specially trained Ukrainian soldiers. Almost six months after the plan was circulated, Kerch Bridge was attacked in an October 8th suicide bombing apparently overseen by Ukraine’s SBU intelligence services.

Detailed proposals for providing “audacious” support to Kiev’s “maritime raiding operations” were drafted at the request of Chris Donnelly, a senior British Army intelligence operative and veteran high ranking NATO advisor. The wide-ranging plan’s core component was “destruction of the bridge over the Kerch Strait.” 

Documents and correspondence plotting the operation were provided to The Grayzone by an anonymous source. 

The truck bombing of the Kerch Bridge differed operationally from the plot sketched therein. Yet, Britain’s evident interest in planning such an attack underscores the deep involvement of NATO powers in the Ukraine proxy war. At almost precisely the time that London reportedly sabotaged peace talks between Kiev and Moscow in April this year, British military intelligence operatives were drawing up blueprints to destroy a major Russian bridge crossed by thousands of civilians per day.

The roadmap was produced by Hugh Ward, a British military veteran. A number of strategies for helping Ukraine “pose a threat to Russian naval forces” in the Black Sea are outlined. The overriding objectives are stated as aiming to “degrade” Russia’s ability to blockade Kiev, “erode” Moscow’s “warfighting capability”,  and isolate Russian land and maritime forces in Crimea by “denying resupply by sea and overland via Kerch bridge.”

Read the complete blueprint: Support for Maritime Raiding Operations – Proposal

In an email, Ward asked Donnelly to “please protect this document,” and it’s easy to see why. Of these assorted plans, only the “Kerch Bridge Raid CONOPS [concept of operation]” is subject to a dedicated annex at the conclusion of Ward’s report, underlining its significance.

The content amounts to direct, detailed advocacy for the commission of what could constitute a grave war crime. Markedly, in plotting ways to destroy a major passenger bridge, there is no reference to avoiding civilian casualties.

Across three separate pages, alongside diagrams, the author spells out the terms of the “mission” – “[disabling] the Kerch Bridge in a way that is audacious, disrupts road and rail access to Crimea and maritime access to the Sea of Azov.”

Ward suggests that destroying the bridge “would require a cruise missile battery to hit the two concrete pillars either side of the central steel arch, which will cause a complete structural failure,” and “prevent any road re-supply from the Russian mainland to Crimea and temporally [sic] disrupt the shipping lane.”

An alternative “scheme” entails a “team of attack divers or UUVs [unmanned underwater vehicles] equipped with limpet mines and linear cutting charges” targeting a “key weakness” and “design flaw” in the bridge’s pillars.

This “flaw” is “several thin pylons used to support the main span,” which were intended to allow strong currents to flow underneath the Bridge with minimal friction. Ward pinpoints a particular area in which the depth of water around a set of pillars was just 10 meters, making it the “weakest part” of the structure.

In related emails obtained by The Grayzone, Chris Donnelly, the senior British army intelligence operative and former NATO advisor, declared the proposals to be “very impressive indeed.”

Reached by phone, Hugh Ward did not deny that he had prepared the Kerch Bridge destruction blueprint for Chris Donnelly.

“I’m going to have a chat with Chris [Donnelly] and confirm with him what he’s prepared for me to release,” Ward told The Grayzone, when asked directly if he drafted the “audacious” plan.

Asked again to confirm his role in the blueprint, Ward paused, then said: “I can not confirm that. I’ll have a chat with Chris first.”

A suicide attack on a $4 billion transportation artery 

At dawn on October 8th, an incendiary attack damaged the Kerch Bridge. A truck exploded, setting two oil tankers ablaze, causing two Crimea-bound spans of the roadway to collapse into the sea below, and killing three. 

While the affected section was quickly repaired and traffic resumed the next day, Western media has celebrated the incident as the latest Russian embarrassment and failure in the conflict with Ukraine. In some cases, journalists openly cheered and joked about what could plausibly be categorized as a war crime that claimed civilian lives.

The suicide strike targeted a connecting structure between Crimea and mainland Russia constructed at a cost of $4 billion, and whose opening provided a major public relations victory for the Kremlin, reinforcing Moscow’s renewed control of the majority Russian-speaking territory.

Upon its unveiling in May 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked:

“In different historical epochs, even under the tsar priests, people dreamed of building this bridge. Then they returned to this in the 1930s, the 40s, the 50s. And finally, thanks to your work and your talent, the miracle has happened.”

The Bridge has been heavily defended since February 24th, not least because it serves as a major transport route for military equipment to Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Russia has previously promised major reprisals in response to any strike on the structure. 

Following the attack, widespread euphoria erupted among Ukrainians, Ukrainian authorities, and Ukraine supporters on social media. Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, posted a video of the burning bridge alongside a black-and-white clip of Marilyn Monroe singing Happy Birthday, Mr. President — a reference to Putin turning 70 the same day.

Furthermore, Ukrainian media has reported via an anonymous source “in law enforcement agencies” that the attack was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine. Yet, high-ranking Ukrainian officials, including chief presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, are now backtracking, claiming instead that the incident was a Russian false flag. 

Such allegations have become commonplace in the wake of incidents in which Ukrainian – or Western – culpability seems likely or indeed certain, such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosions.

Lithuanian ex-Minister of Defense Audrius Butkevičius was involved in secret British intelligence plans to destroy Kerch Bridge.

Laying the foundations of World War III

While the attack on Kerch Bridge did not involve specialist divers, underwater drones or cruise missiles, there are indications that Ward’s plans were shared with the Ukrainian government at the highest levels. In fact, Chris Donnelly forwarded them to former Lithuanian Minister of Defense Audrius Butkevičius, before introducing the pair by email.

A leading figure in Lithuania’s anti-Communist movement, Butkevičius has admitted to deliberately leading pro-independence fighters into Soviet snipers’ line of fire on January 13th 1991. This incident is sometimes referred to as Vilnius’ “Bloody Sunday,” and is officially observed as the Day of the Defenders of Freedom. Butkevičius and his confederates knew the maneuver would provoke mass casualties, further inflaming the local population against Soviet leadership and encourage regime change, which is why they orchestrated it. 

More recently, Butkevičius co-owned Bulcommerce KS, a company that served as “the main intermediary in the supply of Bulgarian weapons and ammunition to Ukraine through third countries,” for use in the civil war in Donbas.

Butkevičius has been credibly accused of working for British intelligence. Email exchanges with Donnelly confirm he is in contact with Guy Spindler, a long-time MI6 officer who was posted in London’s Moscow Embassy concurrently with the infamous Trump-Russia “dossier” author Christopher Steele.

Reached by phone and asked if he reviewed the “Audacious” plan to destroy Kerch Bridge, Spindler told The Grayzone: “I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.”

Contemporary accounts suggest Spindler directly coordinated with Boris Yeltsin at the time of a failed coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.

Butkevičius was also for many years a “senior fellow” at the Institute for Statecraft, a shadowy “charity” founded by Donnelly that manages a number of arm’s length military and intelligence operations on behalf of the British state and NATO, including the now notorious Foreign Office black propaganda unit, the Integrity Initiative.

Leaked Initiative files name Butkevičius as the organization’s key contact in Ukraine at the time of the country’s 2019 election. Three years earlier, he was one of the “escorting personnel” for five Ukrainian intelligence operatives whisked to London by the Institute for Statecraft in order to brief the British military on Russian “hybrid warfare” techniques. Alongside him was Vidmantas Eitutis, who at the time trained Ukraine’s army to conduct “active counterintelligence operations” in Luhansk.

In the Kerch Bridge sabotage proposal commissioned by Donnelly, Ward asks whether the Russian military knew how vulnerable the bridge supposedly was, and “what countermeasures could be expected” in response to its destruction (see image above).

The blitz of retaliatory missile strikes on Ukraine on October 10th provides a likely answer. It is also probable that if Ward’s outline was followed, Moscow’s reprisal would have been even more deadly, putting the lives of countless Ukrainians – and Russians – at significant risk.

Donnelly was clearly unmoved by such concerns, declaring the plans to be “very impressive indeed.”

A similar disregard for catastrophic consequences was evident in a private memo authored by Donnelly in March 2014, outlining “military measures” that Ukraine should take following Moscow’s seizure of Crimea. 

Stating that, “if I were in charge I would get the following implemented,” Donnelly advocated mining Sevastopol harbor using a “car ferry,” destroying fighter jets on Crimean airfields “as a gesture that they are serious,” using a “big microwave anti-satellite weapon” to take down Russian space installations, and turning to the West for oil and gas supplies. 

“I am trying to get this message across,” he concluded. These prescriptions have yet to be implemented, perhaps because they risk triggering an apocalyptic situation. Indeed, such “gestures” would amount to brazen provocations against a nuclear power, from which Ukraine’s oil and gas network was and remains exclusively designed to receive energy.

Yet it appears Donnelly and those around him would be content to see World War III erupt over Crimea. In fact, as the leaked documents obtained by The Grayzone will continue to demonstrate, provoking conflict between the West and Russia has long-been one of his ultimate objectives.

Categories
Saved Web Pages

Crimea bridge: The four ways Ukraine could have taken it down

TELEMMGLPICT000312055735_trans_NvBQzQNjv

At approximately 6 a.m. local time on Saturday, an enormous explosion rocked the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula with Russia. As a result of the explosion sections of one of the two parallel road decks collapsed and a train carrying flammable fuel was set ablaze causing significant damage to the railway bridge.

The cause of the blast remains unknown, but several theories could explain the bridge’s partial collapse.

Russia said the blast was caused by a truck containing explosives, which were detonated on the bridge. 

Two separate surveillance cameras show that a truck travelling from the Russian side was in the centre of the collapsed span exactly as the explosion happened.

Images from the aftermath of the attack show signs of scorching on the collapsed bridge span and the intact one running parallel indicating an explosion occurring above or on the road deck. 

The guard rail posts running along the spans are also all blown outwards by the pressure of the blast away from the last known location of the truck.

An unnamed senior Ukrainian Official corroborated this theory, telling the New York Times, Ukrainian special forces orchestrated the attack, loading a bomb onto a truck.

Vladimir Putin also blamed the SBU for the strike last night.

A missile attack could have been the cause of the explosion, some analysts have speculated.

The only missile that would realistically have the range to hit the bridge is a MGM-140 ATACMS, which Ukraine is not known to possess.

No Western country has provided Kyiv with ATACMS, though some believe it was used to inflict large explosions at the Saki Airbase in August. The US has shipped HIMARS to Ukraine, but has continuously denied having supplied ATACMS.

Many of the same pieces of evidence pointing towards a truck-based explosion could also be used as evidence of a missile attack. 

The main physical piece of evidence rebutting the missile attack theory is the size of the explosion being an order of magnitude too large to attribute solely to the 500lb unitary warhead, which is carried by the ATACMS.

Video footage from a surveillance camera showing a wave below the Kerch strait bridge seconds prior to the explosion has fuelled the theory that an explosive-filled watercraft was used in the attack. 

However, the observed wave appeared below a span of the roadbridge, which remained intact after the blast.

Further images of the underside of the collapsed bridge span revealed a distinct lack of scorching or shrapnel damage. For an explosion of this magnitude originating from below the span, one would expect to see both.

Compared to the destruction on the top of the road, the bottom of the bridge was relatively unscathed.

Had a watercraft been used, the most likely culprit would have been an unmanned surface vessel. It follows an unmanned boat, believed to be Ukrainian, which washed up on shore near Sevastopol in September.

If such a vessel was used it would have been required to sail approximately 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian controlled coastline to the Kerch Bridge undetected by the Russian military.

Some observers claimed a watercraft could have been detonated while travelling parallel to the bridge rather than under it.

This theory has originated in part from traffic camera footage where it could appear that the blast originates slightly away from the centre of the roadway. 

However,  the guard rail posts on the collapsed span are bent outwards indicating the explosion happened towards the centre of the roadway.

The most unlikely theory at this time is the idea of a Ukrainian SOF (Special Operations Force) team placing explosives on the bridge and detonating them.

Placeholder image for youtube video: s2C2RVe_Wf8

The location of the Kerch Bridge would make both the infiltration and exfiltration of an SOF team extremely risky. And the size and location of the explosion does not match with that of a controlled demolition. 

The size of the blast would have required many hundreds of kilos of explosive to be placed, which given the security around the bridge would be close to impossible to get in position. 

Additionally, images of the collapsed span show that the blast happened in the middle of a span causing it to buckle in the centre and collapse.

This would not be a logical or practical location to place explosives for a controlled demolition.

Categories
Saved Web Pages

Zelenskiy Mocks Russia’s Claim Of Laser Weapon Ready To Deploy In Ukraine

7A3E6E74-5B3C-4122-AA18-367716ABB26B_cx0

Men run the site of a blast in Kyiv on October 10.

Men run the site of a blast in Kyiv on October 10.

Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations has denounced Russia as a “terrorist state” during an emergency meeting of the UN General Assembly that came just hours after Ukrainian cities were struck by a wave of deadly missile strikes.

“Russia has proven once again that it is a terrorist state that must be deterred in the strongest possible ways,” said Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya.


RFE/RL’s Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia’s ongoing invasion, Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, Russian protests, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL’s coverage of the war, click here.

The UN had scheduled the October 10 meeting to discuss a draft resolution condemning Russia’s recent annexation of four Ukrainian territories, a violation of international law.

But the session was soon dominated by Western condemnation of Russia’s decision to launch more than 80 missiles at Ukrainian cities in retaliation for what Moscow has called Kyiv’s “terrorist” actions, including a blast that damaged a key route for delivering supplies and reinforcements to Russian forces fighting in southern Ukraine.

The early morning strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and urban residential areas hit major cities across the country, including Kyiv, killing at least 14 people and injuring 97, according to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry.

They were the most punishing attacks launched by Russian forces in months and were seen as a major escalation of the war launched by Moscow in February.

Ahead of the UN meeting, U.S. President Joe Biden said the strikes demonstrated the “utter brutality” of the war initiated unprovoked by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The United States strongly condemns Russia’s missile strikes today across Ukraine, including in Kyiv. These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose. They once again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people,” Biden said in a statement.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the strikes as an “unacceptable escalation of the war” by Russia.

WATCH: Ukraine has reported dozens of missile strikes across its territory, including the capital, Kyiv, in a significant escalation of Russian attacks.

A spokesman for Guterres said in a statement ahead of the emergency UN meeting that the secretary-general was “deeply shocked by today’s large-scale missile attacks by the armed forces of the Russian Federation on cities across Ukraine that reportedly resulted in widespread damage to civilian areas and led to dozens of people being killed and injured.”

The 193-member UN General Assembly decided on October 10 to hold a public vote, rather than a secret ballot, on a draft resolution that would condemn Russia’s “illegal so-called referenda” held in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya regions, as well as Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of the territories.

Diplomats said the vote on the resolution would likely be held on October 12. The majority of countries, 107, voted in favor of holding a public vote, while 13 countries opposed, 39 abstained, and the remainder did not vote.

Russia vetoed a similar resolution in the 15-member Security Council in September.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a video call with members of Russia’s Security Council, said the October 10 strikes were retaliation for what he called Kyiv’s “terrorist” actions, including the October 8 blast that damaged the Crimea Bridge, a key rail and highway route for supplies and reinforcements for Russian forces fighting in southern Ukraine.

Putin said more such Russian strikes could be expected.

“Let there be no doubt,” Putin said. “If attempts at terrorist attacks continue, the response from Russia will be severe.”

Earlier, former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the strikes on Kyiv and other major cities were only “the first response” to the explosion on the Crimea Bridge that left a column of train cars burning and sent one section of the highway into the Kerch Strait.

Russia has said that the suspected truck bombing was an act of terrorism carried out by the Ukrainian special services. Ukraine has not taken credit for the incident.

Following Biden’s comments, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova blamed the United States for holding up possible negotiations to end the war, which Moscow officially calls a “special military operation.”

“We repeat once again especially for the American side: The tasks that we set in Ukraine will be solved,” Zakharova wrote on the ministry’s website.

“Russia is open for diplomacy and the conditions are well known. The longer Washington encourages Kyiv’s bellicose mood and encourages rather than hinders the terrorist undertakings of Ukrainian saboteurs, the more difficult will be the search for diplomatic solutions.”

Kyiv, which has retaken large swaths of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine’s south and east in recent weeks, has ruled out negotiations with Putin, saying that Russia is making unacceptable demands and that Putin’s actions have made talks impossible.

Ukraine was left reeling by the early morning strikes on October 10.

While Putin said his forces had launched “precision weapons” from the air, sea, and ground to target key energy and military command facilities in Ukraine, the strikes hit residential areas and critical infrastructure facilities alike.

Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said on the Telegram messaging app that four cities — Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, and Ternopil — had no electricity following the attacks and that electricity supplies had been partially disrupted in other parts of the country. In the east, passenger rail service was cut off between Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, and Izyum — a city that was taken shortly after Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February but which Kyiv recently retook in a major counteroffensive.

Several explosions rocked the center of the capital, Kyiv, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video message filmed outside his presidential office that Russia had intentionally targeted the country’s energy infrastructure and timed the strikes to inflict the greatest number of human losses.

In his nightly evening address to the nation on October 10, Zelenskiy said from a damaged civilian area near a Kyiv university that “Ukraine cannot be intimidated. We united even more instead.”

International reaction to the October 10 missile strikes was swift, with the United States, the European Union, and NATO condemning the strikes and the Group of Seven announcing it would hold emergency talks on October 11 that would be preceded by an address by Zelenskiy.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that he had spoken with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to “reiterate U.S. support for Ukraine following the Kremlin’s horrific strikes.” Blinken said the United States would continue to provide “unwavering economic, humanitarian, and security assistance so Ukraine can defend itself and take care of its people.”






Photo Gallery:

Earlier, EU Foreign Affairs chief Josep Borrell also spoke with Kuleba after the attacks, which Borrell “condemned in the strongest possible terms.” The EU’s top diplomat also expressed his condolences for those who died in the strike and said those responsible would be held accountable.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in a tweet after speaking with Kuleba that he “condemned Russia’s horrific and indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in his morning video address that the strikes were an act of terrorism.

“This morning is difficult. We are dealing with terrorists,” Zelenskiy said, noting the Russian military’s use of Iranian drones to carry out the strikes.

“They are trying to destroy us and wipe us off the face of the earth…destroy our people who are sleeping at home,” Zelenskiy said.

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy said on Twitter that Russia used drones to launch a total of 75 rockets on Ukraine, more than half of which he claimed were destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses.

With reporting by dpa, AP, and Reuters
Categories
Saved Web Pages

Royal Navy’s new laser ‘death ray’ hailed exceptionally accurate after first set of trials

b25lY21zOjM0M2FjZmUwLTlkZWUtNGJjMC1iMjgw

The £130m Dragonfire programme is one of the most advanced weapons systems currently being tested by the British military.

The ‘death ray’ will be capable of firing bursts of high-energy light particles that can rip apart targets in the blink of an eye.

It’s set to be rolled out across the UK armed forces, fitted on Royal Navy warships, RAF jets, helicopters and in land-based air defence variants.

An impression of the laser weapon in action on a Type 26 frigate.

Development of Dragonfire is being led by a consortium of international defence firms and the Ministry of Defence.

The first batch of trials has now been completed, which tested the accuracy of a low-powered version of the laser against targets in the air and at sea – with the consortium behind the project saying Dragonfire passed with flying colours with ‘exceptionally high accuracy’.

The success has now paved the way for the next phase of the trials, which will see the UK tested its first high-power laser version.

The Dragonfire system which has now completed its first set of accuracy tests on targets in the air and at sea.

Chris Allam, managing director of defence firm MBDA UK, said: ‘The success of these trials is a key step in the development of sovereign laser directed energy weapons.

‘It is the culmination of a lot of hard work from both the industry and Dstl (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory) teams, overcoming disruption due to Covid and technical challenges from the use of unique innovations in Dragonfire that are testing the very limits of what is physically possible in the laser weapons domain.’

Dragonfire was revealed in 2017, with the then-Second Sea Lord of the Royal Navy, Vice Admiral Jonathan Woodcock championing the system.

Addressing senior military figures and defence leaders during his 2017 Trafalgar Day speech, Vice Adm Woodcock said it had been hoped the first ‘capability demonstrator’ of the system would ‘fire in 2019’.

An impression of the laser system fitted on a Wildcat helicopter.

But delays hampered this plan, pushing back the planned rollout into the army and navy by the mid-2020s.

Speaking on Twitter today about the news of Dragonfire’s first tests, Sir Jonathan said: ‘Great to see but such a shame it’s not 2019, the date I set for it to be trialled at sea and the date signed up to by the consortium.’

Categories
Saved Web Pages

Putin has Called Core Myth of Russians into Question, Portnikov Says

Józef Brandt Potyczka Kozaków z Tatarami

Staunton, September 20 – By his incautious remarks about the absence of a state tradition in Kazakhstan and his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has unintentionally called attention to and cast doubt on one of the most fundamental myths of the Russian state and people, that they descended from Kyiv rather than as is in fact the case from the Mongol horde.

Russians have long been accustomed to see their state tradition as extending from “Kievan Rus to Vladimir Rus to the yoke to Moscow Rus to the Russian Empire to the USSR and then to the Russian Federation,” Moscow commentator Vitaly Portnikov writes on Grani.ru.

And because of this widely accepted myth, he continues, Russians are not prepared to recognize that Kyiv “was one of the most important centers of the Grand Principality of Lithuania” and that however much Russians want to believe that Ukrainians were “invented by Austrians, Germans and other Jews in fact Ukrainians invented Russians.”

By his dismissive comments about Kazakhstan, Putin has brought Russia to “the moment of truth” when Russians must face up to their own involvement with and indeed formation by the Mongol horde and recognize that all the pretentions of the Moscow principles to land in Europe are “based on one single myth, the myth of Kievan Rus.”

Orthodox priests from the banks of the Dnepr promoted this myth, historians like Karamzin who himself sprang from a family with Mongol roots did so as well, and Muscovite rulers were all too willing to take it up to justify their claims to being part of Europe and having a right to subordinate Ukrainians and many others.

Not everyone accepted this myth immediately, Portnikov continues, but “by the beginning of the 20th century everyone in Russia already believed that Ukraine is Russia” and rejected the idea that Ukraine had an independent identity or existence. And then, Russians “tried to show Ukrainians they are Russians” and Ukrainians to “escape from this alien myth.”

When these Russian efforts failed and when Ukrainians recognized that they were their own people with their own goals, what did Moscow do? It invaded to seize parts of Ukraine which were never part of the Kievan Rus mythology: Crimea which had been a Muslim khanate and Novorossiya which had been a steppe.

And in doing so, Moscow made it too obvious to hide that where the population it had earlier moved into these regions ended so, too, did Russian influence. And the Kremlin compounded this by attacking what Russians had imagined as the center of Kievan Rus as “western agents” or worse.

In doing so, Putin and his regime showed themselves to be what they are: “fragments of the Horde” and not descendants of Kievan Rus. And as a result of the blood that has been shed in that cause, there is now a yawning gap between Russians and Ukrainians, one that will never allow the two peoples to see themselves as “brothers” or accept the Kievan Rus mythology.

They will thus “never again” see themselves “as a single whole in the civilizational sense.” And that, Portnikov says, “and on that in fact marks the final death of empire,” even if the descendants of the horde are being slow to recognize such an outcome.

Categories
Saved Web Pages

Moscow rushes to repair Crimean bridge after fiery explosion

GettyImages-1243812322.jpg

Russia is rushing to repair the bridge connecting occupied Crimea to Russia after a major blast on Saturday, in an attempt to downplay the attack.

Suburban train lines are scheduled to start running again on the Kerch Bridge as of 7 p.m. local time, according to a message from the Russian Transport Ministry posted on Telegram Sunday. Long-distance freight and passenger trains on the bridge already “are moving according to the standard schedule,” the ministry said.

The fiery explosion Saturday morning marked a huge symbolic blow against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who grabbed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and started building the bridge connecting the Ukrainian peninsula to Russia that same year.

“This incident will likely touch President Putin closely,” the U.K. Ministry of Defense said in analysis published on Sunday, since the blast happened “hours after his 70th birthday” and his childhood friend Arkady Rotenberg built the bridge.

Putin tightened security for the bridge after Saturday’s explosion, and he ordered a government commission to investigate the damage. The initial report from Moscow’s inspection of the bridge is due later Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry appeared to be downplaying the blow as it tweeted a video of the Kerch Bridge with traffic flowing. Despite Moscow’s message of business as usual, the U.K.’s Defense Ministry said that transport “capacity will be seriously degraded” on the bridge.

“The extent of damage to the rail crossing is uncertain, but any serious disruption to its capacity will highly likely have a significant impact on Russia’s already strained ability to sustain its forces in southern Ukraine,” the U.K. ministry said.

Russia’s Ministry of Transport wrote on Telegram Sunday that vehicles containing perishable goods would be given priority on ferries crossing the Kerch Strait.

The Ukrainian government so far hasn’t been commenting about the origins of the apparent bombing. Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzheppar posted a picture of the collapsed bridge section on Saturday with the hashtag #CrimeaIsUkraine.

Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has been leading a counteroffensive against Russia and regaining territory and towns held by Moscow. Kyiv is now asking for more Western weapons, including air defense systems. The Kremlin signalled on Sunday that if the West were to provide Ukraine with heavier long-distance arms, Russia would retaliate.

“Deliveries of long-range or more powerful weapons to Kyiv” would cross Russia’s “red lines,” Russian foreign affairs official Aleksey Polishchuk told the country’s state-owned news agency TASS on Sunday.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba renewed the call for additional defensive systems on Sunday, after at least 17 people were reported killed overnight by Russian shelling on the city of Zaporizhzhia.

“Russia continues its missile terror against civilians in Zaporizhzhia,” Kuleba said in a tweet. “We urgently need more modern air and missile defense systems to save innocent lives. I urge partners to speed up deliveries.”

Categories
Saved Web Pages

The Crimea attack triggered a wave of strikes on Ukraine. But mystery swirls over who blew up Putin’s bridge

221010160125-01-russia-ukraine-crime-bri

The huge explosion on the Crimea bridge shortly before dawn on Saturday severely curtailed road and rail traffic along an important artery – both civilian and military – at a critical moment in Russia’s campaign in Ukraine.

At first sight, it was another embarrassment – even humiliation – for the Russian state, still reeling from battlefield setbacks in Kharkiv, Donetsk and, more recently, in Kherson in the south.

But by Monday the bridge attack had also become the Kremlin’s justification for a sudden blitz of missile attacks across Ukraine. By midday, according to Ukrainian authorities, some 80 missiles and rockets had been fired at infrastructure in a dozen cities – and Russian officials were promising more to come.

In the hours after the bridge explosion, Russian investigators fastened onto one explanation for the blast: It was a terrorist attack using a massive explosive charge hidden in a truck and then detonated as the vehicle crossed the bridge toward Crimea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin picked up the theme on Monday, saying Kyiv had “put itself on a par with the most odious terrorist groups,” which had prompted the subsequent “massive strike with precision-guided weapons on Ukrainian infrastructure – energy infrastructure, military command and communications.”

Cars burn after a Russian military strike in central Kyiv on October 10.

“It is simply impossible to leave the crimes of the Kyiv regime unanswered,” he said.

Putin went on: “In terms of the further act of terrorism on the territory of Russia, the Russian reply will be harsh and will be corresponding to the level of threat to the Russian Federation, have no doubt about it.”

The explosion, Moscow’s version of what happened and the absence of any Ukrainian acknowledgement for carrying it out, has set off a firestorm of theorizing about what caused it and who was responsible.

The Kerch bridge is about 150 miles from the nearest Ukrainian positions, and well beyond the range of weapons provided by the West. But Ukrainian drones were reported to have approached the area in the summer, setting off air defense measures.

Some analysts unconvinced by the truck bomb narrative suggested a missile or missiles fired by drones may have been responsible, or that an underwater sabotage team had fixed charges to the bridge’s support structure.

Images and video from the scene were inconclusive. As the truck identified by the Russians crosses the bridge and begins to ascend to its highest point, it is engulfed in a massive explosion.

The Russian Investigative Committee, charged with finding out what caused the explosion, quickly identified the vehicle. Surveillance video emerged of the truck, with its distinct scarlet cab, at a checkpoint before it enters the bridge. It receives a cursory inspection; the driver – in a short-sleeve shirt – is seen briefly closing the truck’s rear doors.

But it’s unclear how a truck bomb would have caused two separate spans of the westbound lanes to collapse into the Kerch Strait. Additionally, the force of such a blast would have mostly gone upwards and outwards. Some analysts note that the way the spans collapsed imply the force of the blast came from below.

Chris Cobb-Smith, an analyst with the research group Forensic Architecture, is skeptical about the truck narrative. “It’s possible to blow a bridge by using explosives on the span but it takes a huge amount and needs ‘tamping’ – a huge weight of ballast on the charge to ensure the blast goes downwards,” he told CNN.

A fire broke out after the huge blast on Saturday at the Kerch bridge. The crossing links the Crimea peninsula to the Russian mainland.

“I don’t believe a truck bomb could have caused this level of damage. This would have entailed a suicide bomber driver, unheard of in the context of this conflict.”

Cobb-Smith, a British army veteran, is also skeptical of a special forces operation. “There are accurate weapon systems that could achieve the aim of destroying the bridge without risking individuals.”

But he cautions: “To solve this I believe we need analysis of the bits of the bridge currently underwater. I still think this would have been easily achieved by a precision munition.”

On Sunday, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, doubled down on the truck explanation.

Face-to-face with Putin in a well-choreographed exchange, Bastrykin said the truck had been in Bulgaria before traveling through Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia and into Russia. (It would have also had to cross Turkey.)

“It was possible to identify suspects from among those who could prepare a terrorist attack, and people who operate on the territory of the Russian Federation,” Bastrykin said, referring to “citizens of foreign countries who helped prepare for this terrorist attack.”

The investigators reached an “unequivocal conclusion – this is a terrorist attack that was being prepared by the Ukrainian special services,” Bastrykin said.

A stern-faced Putin responded: “I see.” Notably, the president went on to say: “There is no doubt that this is a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the critical civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation,” carried out by the special services of Ukraine.

On one level, the “act of terror” narrative would at least excuse the Russian military from having to explain why its multi-layered defenses around the bridge failed, despite Ukraine’s public assertions that it was a legitimate target. On another, it provides – through Moscow’s prism – the justification for the massive escalation of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Ukrainian intelligence claims those attacks were planned days before the Kerch explosion. Its defense intelligence agency said Monday that Russian military units had “received instructions from the Kremlin to prepare massive missile strikes on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine on October 2 and 3.”

Local residents examine a crater following a missile strike in Dnipro on Monday.

If it wasn’t the truck, what might have caused such an explosion? Cobb-Smith says a surface vessel of any sort should and would have been detected.

Some analysts have suggested that the explosion could have come from beneath the bridge; others think satellite images indicate the impact was from above and came from the north.

Ultimately, according to Cobb-Smith and other experts, there is insufficient video evidence to confirm what happened at Kerch.

There is no doubt that the Ukrainians have seen Kerch as a legitimate, even necessary, target.

Back in June Dmytro Marchenko, a Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Major General in the south of the country, said the Kerch bridge was the “number one target.”

Marchenko told Radio Liberty: “This is no secret to their military or our military. Neither for their civilians nor for our civilians. This will be the number one target to hit. It’s as if the main gut tightening reserves just have to be cut off. As soon as this intestine is cut off, they will begin to panic.”

But Ukrainian officials have been tight-lipped about Saturday’s explosion, welcoming the crippling of the bridge (somewhat prematurely given that limited road and rail traffic resumed within 24 hours) without acknowledging involvement.

They took the same approach with the sinking of the Russian battleship Moskva. It was weeks before any official acknowledgement emerged.

Some Ukrainian officials put the Kerch explosion down to an internal power struggle between Russia’s Security Service and Defense Ministry, without offering any evidence.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky’s chief of staff, said Saturday that “the logistics of the detonation, the synchronization with the fuel echelon [the rail wagons carrying fuel], the volume of the destroyed road surface – all this clearly points to the Russian trail.”

The cause of the Kerch blast, and its perpetrator, remain open questions. They may do for some time to come. But there is no doubt that the conflict in Ukraine has moved to yet another level, with Russia now embarked on a relentless assault against Ukraine’s power and communications networks, and Ukrainian officials swearing revenge for every missile.

WP Radio
WP Radio
OFFLINE LIVE