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Question mark over how long Russia will hold on to ‘significant’ advance in Ukraine war

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Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu today told Vladimir Putin his forces had “liberated” the city of Lysychansk, the last area in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine that was still under Kyiv’s control. Ukraine has not yet commented on the claim, though did previously concede Russian forces were closing in on the area, according to CNN.

Kiwi journalist Tom Mutch highlighted the “size of the territory lost [around 4.4 percent of Ukraine] isn’t the issue”.

He wrote in a post on Twitter: “It is that this small area contained many of Ukraine’s best prepared defences and well trained troops, hardened since 2014.

“The fall of Luhansk is a significant event in the war – wishful thinking to pretend otherwise.”

Writer Neil Hauer added that Russian attention would now “move to two areas”.

putinQuestion mark over how long Russia will hold on to ‘significant’ advance in Ukraine war. (Image: Getty)

Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin. (Image: Getty)

These, he highlighted, were “the Siversk-Bakhmut line, where Ukrainian defenders are setting up now, and the northern approaches to Sloviansk”.

But some Western analysts have questioned for how long Russia will manage to hold on to its gains.

After Moscow last week took control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk, one official told the Washington Post: “There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability.”

Boris Johnson also argued “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources”.

READ MORE: US finally give backing to Erdogan’s F16 jet plan

Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin. (Image: Getty)

Volodymyr ZelenskyVolodymyr Zelensky. (Image: Getty)

Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Max Boot noted in a post on Twitter today following Russia’s latest advance: “With the fall of Lysychansk, the Russians control Luhansk province, but Ukraine still controls roughly half of Donetsk.

“Western analysts expect that Russia will soon exhaust its offensive capabilities while Ukraine is getting new weapons like HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems].”

It is, however, understood Ukraine will require extreme levels of support in order to regain areas from Russia.

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Russia vs Ukraine: the statsRussia vs Ukraine: the stats. (Image: Express)

An intelligence report by Ukrainian and Western officials, seen by the Independent, last month drew attention to the fact Ukraine is outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition against Ukraine.

It added that the range of its artillery was 12 times less than that being used by Moscow’s forces.

The situation has laid the groundwork for an increasing number of desertions, intelligence officials report.

Volodymyr ZelenskyVolodymyr Zelensky. (Image: Getty)

Upon meeting Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv for the second time since the beginning of the war, Mr Johnson offered for the UK to launch a scheme which could train up to 10,000 Ukrainian troops every 120 days.

But officials noted that Ukraine was losing more than this number of men in the Donbas alone every 120 days.

This was before the UK almost doubled its military support to Ukraine by pledging a further £1billion.

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Putin’s poisonous anti-Western ideology relies heavily on projection

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Putin’s poisonous anti-Western ideology relies heavily on projection

For the past century at least, the Kremlin leadership has failed to understand the West. Though it has at times succeeded in manipulating the West and conducting espionage operations against it, the Kremlin and its affiliated intelligence services have consistently misunderstood Western intentions.

This is not accidental. We know from sources ranging from the Mitrokhin Files to the recent defection of Boris Bondarev that both Russian diplomats and Russian intelligence officers are pressed to report not what the Kremlin needs to know, but rather what it wants to hear. The classic example of this was Yuri Andropov’s directive to KGB officers abroad to obtain NATO’s plans for a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the USSR, despite the fact that no such plans existed. The Soviet intelligence services “fed the beast” for years, and in 1983 nearly triggered a nuclear war over the Able Archer NATO exercise.

This approach to information and intelligence gathering results in projection, meaning the tendency to see the outside world not as it really is but through the distorting lens of the observer’s experience. Vladimir Putin’s recent speech at the 2022 Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum is worth exploring in detail as it left little room for doubt that his worldview is dominated by such projection.

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Putin’s June 17 speech in Saint Petersburg was billed in advance as “extremely important” by the Kremlin. It was certainly revealing. In his address, Putin projected his own desire to expand Russia’s borders onto the West while accusing Western leaders of crimes he himself is guilty of. His much quoted reference to “obsolete geopolitical illusions” was particularly ironic, since Putin’s worldview is based on nineteenth century modes of sphere-of-influence international relations. Clearly, Putin fails to understand that his view is the obsolete illusion.

The Russian dictator accused the West of viewing the rest of the world as a collective backwater. “They still treat them like colonies, and the people living there like second-class people, because they consider themselves exceptional. If they are exceptional, that means everyone else is second rate.” This was clear projection of Russia’s own attitude toward its former colonies, ranging from the 14 non-Russian former republics of the USSR to the former Warsaw Pact nations of Central Europe.

The idea of Western imperialism was central to Putin’s entire speech. Citing the examples of Yugoslavia, Syria, Libya and Iraq, he accused the West of “crudely and shamelessly imposing their ethics, their views on culture and ideas about history, sometimes questioning the sovereignty and integrity of states, and threatening their very existence.” This was particularly ironic given Putin’s own statements denying Ukraine’s right to exist. As for “crudely and shamelessly imposing” cultural values, the Russification of education and culture across the multi-ethnic USSR, extending to today’s multi-ethnic Russian Federation, makes clear that this is another projection.

Putin’s comments on Western democracy were similarly shaped by the cynicism of his own experience with fake parties and rigged elections. “Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery,” he stated. Putin’s United Russia party has been in power in Russia for over two decades and is now the only real political force in the country, particularly since the jailing of Alexei Navalny. United Russia certainly fits Putin’s definition of being completely divorced from “the real interests of people and national businesses.”

Unsurprisingly, Putin had much to say about the European Union’s alleged loss of sovereignty to the United States. Anyone truly familiar with the politics of the European Union would reject claims that Europe dances to America’s tune or has lost its political sovereignty. In fact, the greatest influence on EU policy toward Russia is exerted today not by the United States but by former Soviet vassals such as the Czechs and the Baltic states, who well remember what Russian domination was like.

Likewise, the United States has in no way pressed Sweden or Finland to apply for NATO membership. Instead, Putin has only himself to blame. Putin simply cannot imagine how Western democracies interact with each other, or that they would willingly choose to coalesce, despite their differences, when faced with an external threat. Instead, he seeks to attribute everything to American influence, a projection of erstwhile Kremlin influence over its Warsaw Pact allies during the Soviet era.

Putin’s worldview seems shaped by two information vectors: his own life experience as a KGB officer and the flow of reports from his intelligence and diplomatic services. The former is irrelevant to the modern world, while the latter is likely highly inaccurate due to the pressure on Russian spies and diplomats to tell the Kremlin what it wants to hear.

When we face a sparse information matrix to support decisions, we tend naturally to fall back on our own experience and to give most credence to information that matches our preconceptions. Putin views the world through the prism of a mid-level Soviet bureaucrat nurtured on hatred of the West and biased by exposure in his formative years to only one model of both domestic politics and international relations. He sees us not as we are but as he is, as the Soviet Union was, and as he wishes Russia to be.

Allan Mustard retired as US Ambassador to Turkmenistan in 2019 after 34 years as a Foreign Service Officer including over seven years in the USSR and Russian Federation.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Image: Participants gather near a screen showing Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering a speech at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg. June 17, 2022. (REUTERS/Anton Vaganov)

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11 key points from 6 insurrection hearings

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'Classic Trump playbook': Ex-Trump official responds to his attacks on Hutchinson

A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

(CNN)As Americans pause to celebrate their Independence Day, it’s worth taking a step back to consider the totality of what we’ve learned about the attempted insurrection that tried to undo it.

The broad outlines of former President Donald Trump’s incitement of the US Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, and his efforts to undo the 2020 election he lost were evident to anyone following his since-unplugged Twitter feed.

But the House committee investigating the lead-up to the incursion has filled in essential details with its six hearings to date.

As the committee takes its own break — new hearings aren’t expected until later this month — here are the most important things we’ve learned so far.

Rioters may be going to jail and the committee may be documenting the role of Trump and some of his allies in trying to undermine the 2020 election, but the insurrection is not exactly over, according to Rep. Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Republican who is the committee’s vice chair.

“We are confronting a domestic threat that we have never faced before,” she said in comments Wednesday, a day after the most recent hearing.

Cheney is among the few Republicans to continue to loudly condemn Trump, and she is in danger of losing her GOP primary in Wyoming later this summer. She said other Republican leaders “have made themselves willing hostages to this dangerous and irrational man.”

Trump wanted to take part in the march on the Capitol and Secret Service may have stopped him

The most recent hearing, the sixth, added on short notice this week, featured blockbuster testimony from Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

Related: Read more about Hutchinson

While it was based largely on hearsay — things other former aides and a White House valet had told her — the allegations are incredible.

The most vivid of Hutchinson’s statements was about Trump, angrily realizing he would not be taken to the Capitol on January 6, trying to grab the wheel of the presidential vehicle from a Secret Service agent. He wanted to lead the protesters. These are the same protesters who would ultimately storm in, threatening his vice president’s life.

Trump had a temper after his loss

Her descriptions of ketchup flung on the White House wall, dishes thrown on the ground in fits of rage, speak to the emotions coursing through Trump as he faced losing power. This perhaps helps explain why it may have been so difficult for people inside the White House to influence him.

The investigation is not over

The committee’s public hearings in June began with the feeling of a preplanned show stage-managed for the effect of indisputably proving that a conspiracy to overturn the election had occurred. But it’s becoming clear the committee is learning new things and following leads.

Bombshell” testimony by Hutchinson led the committee to issue a subpoena to former White House counsel Pat Cipollone. The White House lawyer could confirm many of the allegations uncovered in the hearings. But he was also the White House lawyer, a position usually shielded from congressional testimony.

Cipollone notably defended Trump in the former President’s first impeachment trial but was, according to multiple witnesses, among the White House aides encouraging him to accept the election results and disputing the crackpot legal theory that Vice President Mike Pence could simply throw out election results from certain states.

Trump’s orbit may be trying to influence the testimony

Cheney said Tuesday that two witnesses thought people connected to Trump may have been trying to intimidate them. CNN later reported that one of those witnesses who felt intimidated was Hutchinson. The committee had hid her identity in the lead-up to the hearing out of fear for her safety.

Pence was the key to the plot. And then he was a target of the riot

After Trump lost the election, his only hope to remain in power was for his vice president, Mike Pence, to reject the election results in certain states during the counting of electoral votes. Trump turned on his vice president when Pence refused to buy into the illegal plan, pushed by the attorney John Eastman.

Protesters who stormed the Capitol got as close as 40 feet from Pence.

The third hearing featured testimony from former Pence attorney Greg Jacob, who described Eastman’s pressure campaign, which continued even after the January 6 riot.

This is one side of the story

It is always important to remember that just two Republicans, Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois — both Trump opponents — sit on the committee. Neither may be around in Congress next year. Cheney could well lose her upcoming GOP primary (stay tuned) and Kinzinger is not running for reelection.

Democrats blocked Trump loyalists who questioned the validity of the election from being on the committee. Some of those Republicans, we now know, requested pardons from Trump for their efforts to undermine the election on his behalf.

Many of Trump’s closest White House associates have refused to testify — although, as in the case of Meadows, some did provide the committee with key information like text messages.

Trump’s effort to influence vote counting was widespread

We already knew from a leaked audiotape that Trump personally wanted Georgia officials to “find” votes and manufacture a win for him there after he lost the official vote count.

The fourth hearing documented that he had pressured officials in both Georgia and Arizona and that he was personally involved, according to multiple witnesses, in an effort to create slates of fake electors in key battleground states he lost.

Trump’s conspiracy theories shook the Department of Justice

The taped testimony of former Attorney General Bill Barr, featured prominently in the second hearing, made clear that Trump had been told his belief that the election was stolen from him was wrong and even ludicrous.

Barr ultimately resigned, which left a vacuum at the Justice Department. Remaining leaders there banded together, a focus of the fifth hearing, and considered a mass resignation as Trump sought out an ally, the environmental lawyer Jeffrey Clark, to get federal law enforcement on his side. In this case the government held against the would-be coup.

Rioters thought they were taking cues from Trump after he refused to accept his loss

The committee’s first hearing in June took video from Trump and from rioters, testimony from injured Capitol Police officers and recorded interviews with members of his administration, including his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to show how determined and dangerous the riot was. It closed with a montage of rioters saying they specifically thought they were doing Trump’s bidding.

These hearings may be having an effect

While it’s mostly Democrats on the committee, it’s mostly Republicans who have been witnesses. If there is one lasting consequence of this, it may not be that anyone faces criminal charges for trying to undermine a US election. But it could seriously wound Trump’s political future. It’s not always apparent watching Fox, but read this editorial from the conservative Washington Examiner after Hutchinson described working in the White House during the insurrection.

“Trump is a disgrace,” according to the paper. “Republicans have far better options to lead the party in 2024. No one should think otherwise, much less support him, ever again.”

That’s an important sentiment as Trump angles to run again for president, his current plan.

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An American’s Murky Path From Russian Propagandist to Jan. 6

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Charles Bausman, a former financial executive who runs websites that promote far-right views, recorded footage in the Capitol for a Russian television producer. Soon after, he fled to Moscow as a “political refugee.”

Charles Bausman, right, in a red cap and a gray jacket, during the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Charles Bausman, right, in a red cap and a gray jacket, during the Jan. 6 insurrection.Credit…via YouTube

Mike McIntire
July 3, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET

In security footage from Jan. 6, it is easy to overlook the thin man wearing a red Trump hat who filters into the U.S. Capitol Building to record the mayhem with his phone.

He blends in with the mob, seemingly unexceptional by the chaotic standards of that day. But what he did afterward was far from routine.

Within 24 hours, the man, Charles Bausman, gave his recordings and commentary to a Russian television producer for a propaganda video. He then decamped to Moscow, where, appearing on a far-right television network owned by a sanctioned oligarch, he recently accused American media of covering up for neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

“We must understand that in the West,” Mr. Bausman told Russian viewers, “we are already in a situation of total lies.”

For Mr. Bausman — an American alumnus of Phillips Exeter Academy and Wesleyan University who speaks fluent Russian — it was the latest chapter in a strange odyssey. Once a financial executive who voted for President Barack Obama, he emerged in 2014 as a public critic of the left and of the United States, boosted by Russian state-sponsored organizations through speaking invitations, TV appearances and awards.

Central to his transformation was a series of websites he created pushing anti-America, pro-Russia themes, as well as racist and homophobic messaging. Some of his posts have racked up millions of views, and his 5,000-word screed on “the Jewish problem” has been hailed by antisemites around the world and translated into multiple languages.

Mr. Bausman’s path in some ways tracks a broader shift on the political right that embraces misinformation and sympathy toward Russia while tolerating an increasingly emboldened white nationalism. For its part, the Kremlin has sought to court conservatives in the United States and sow discord through a network of expats, collaborators and spies.

People who have written for Mr. Bausman’s websites or promoted his work have come under scrutiny by American intelligence, and the founder of a pro-Russia forum that hosted him and others was charged in March with being an unregistered agent of Moscow.

Mr. Bausman initially gained some prominence as a Russia apologist, but he has lowered his profile in recent years as he has espoused more extreme views. Yet he has been Zelig-like in exploiting cultural and political flash points, racing from cause to cause.

After surfacing as a voluble defender of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, Mr. Bausman became an outspoken Trump supporter. With white nationalism on the rise, he threw himself into promoting it, relocating to rural Pennsylvania and hosting neo-Nazis at his property. He joined Republican protests against coronavirus restrictions and the 2020 election and most recently has reappeared in Russian media to criticize the West’s response to the war in Ukraine.

Mr. Bausman attended a 2015 conference hosted by RT, a news channel tied to the Kremlin.Credit…Mikhail Voskresenskiy/Sputnik, via AP

Konstantin Malofeev, an influential oligarch indicted by the United States over alleged sanctions violations, said he had asked Mr. Bausman to appear on his television network because Mr. Bausman was one of the few Russian-speaking Americans willing to do it.

“Who else is there to invite?” Mr. Malofeev asked.

Mr. Bausman, 58, did not respond to multiple requests for comment. No charges have been brought against him related to the events of Jan. 6, though he appears inside the Capitol in video clips introduced in court cases against others. When a Russian TV host referred to him as “a participant” in storming the Capitol, Mr. Bausman interrupted to say that the description could get him into trouble, and that he was a journalist.

But, on other occasions, he has described himself differently. Speaking on a white nationalist podcast in April, in which he attacked critics of Russia as “evil pedophile globalists” who control the “enslaved West,” he explained why he was back in Moscow:

“I’m a political refugee here.”

President Vladimir V. Putin had just invaded Crimea in 2014 when Mr. Bausman said he had an idea. He would create an alternative news source to counter what he called Western media’s “inaccurate, incomplete and unrealistically negative picture of Russia.”

The website, Russia Insider, was directed at an English-speaking audience and offered stories like, “Putin to Obama: You’re Turning the U.S.A. Into a Godless Sewer,” and “Anti-Christian Pogrom Underway in Ukraine.” Content was often aggregated from other pro-Russia sources, including RT, the Kremlin-funded television network.

The role of online agitator was not an obvious one for Mr. Bausman, who grew up in the wealthy suburb of Greenwich, Conn., attended prep school and went on to earn a history degree from Wesleyan and study business at Columbia. His experience with Russia dates to his childhood, when his father served as the Moscow bureau chief for The Associated Press.

Mr. Bausman with his father, who worked in Moscow for The Associated Press.

As a college graduate in the late 1980s, he returned to Russia, and, with help from his father’s connections, worked briefly for NBC News. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, Mr. Bausman found a new role: as a multilingual fixer for entrepreneurs scrambling to cash in on the emerging economy.

A. Craig Copetas, a former Wall Street Journal correspondent who wrote a book about the post-Soviet business era, said Mr. Bausman worked with Russians who “were the forerunners of the oligarchs.”

“Charlie speaks excellent Russian,” he said, “so he was a valuable asset — he was like the young American prince of Moscow.”

Mr. Bausman’s early success was not to last. There are gaps in his résumé, and U.S. court records show that he filed for bankruptcy in 1999.

A former business associate recalled Mr. Bausman’s father beseeching people to “help my son” with his career. This person — one of several who did not want to be identified because of Mr. Bausman’s ties to extremists — described him as “just this lost guy” who seemed to struggle professionally despite impressive qualifications. He worked a succession of Russian private equity jobs, never staying in any position longer than a few years.

Mr. Bausman’s last role was with the agribusiness investor AVG Capital Partners. A 2012 company presentation, which listed him as director of investor relations, boasted of “strong partnerships” with Russian authorities and included a photo of Mr. Putin.

The exact timing of Mr. Bausman’s switch to propagandist is murky, but two profiles on the Russian social media platform VK offer a clue. The first, from 2011, is a sparse page featuring a wan Mr. Bausman in a suit and a link to a group interested in tennis.

In the second profile, from two years later, he looks tan and confident in an open-collared shirt. The VK groups he joined were strikingly radical, including a militant Russian Orthodox sect and another called the Internet Militia, whose goal echoed what would soon become Mr. Bausman’s focus: “to protect and defend our native information field” against American attack.

Publicly, Mr. Bausman turned to crowd funding to pay for Russia Insider. Behind the scenes, however, he was in contact with Mr. Malofeev, a promoter of Orthodox nationalist propaganda.

Leaked emails made public in 2014 revealed Mr. Bausman corresponding with a Malofeev associate, saying “we published your Serbia info” and asking for money. In an email to Mr. Malofeev, the associate praised Mr. Bausman’s site as “pro-Russian” and noted that he “wants to cooperate.”

Mr. Malofeev was backing another media project at the time with a similar agenda: Tsargrad TV, which he created with a former Fox News employee, John Hanick. Both Mr. Hanick and Mr. Malofeev were charged by the United States this year with violating sanctions imposed in 2014.

Mr. Bausman has appeared on the television network of Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian oligarch indicted by the U.S. for alleged sanctions violations.Credit…Tatyana Makeyeva/Reuters

In an interview, Mr. Malofeev said he believed Mr. Bausman “has done a great job and that he is a very brave person,” but he denied they had “a financial relationship.”

Mr. Bausman has always said he did not receive support from Russian authorities. But there is little doubt that his emergence as an American salesman of pro-Kremlin views was aided greatly by entities controlled by or tied to the Russian state.

After Russia Insider went live, Mr. Bausman began appearing on RT and other Russian media, and a news crew from a major state-owned TV channel traveled to his parents’ home in Connecticut to film him discussing his new website. On Facebook, he boasted that “our traffic exploded after this aired.”

He was invited to join panel discussions at another state-owned outlet, received an award in 2016 named after a pro-Russia journalist killed in Ukraine, and spoke at a Kremlin-sponsored youth conference in newly captured Crimea. He gave interviews to Russian Orthodox figures, speaking approvingly of Mr. Malofeev.

In April 2016, Mr. Bausman’s work was promoted by a Russian website, RIA FAN, that has been linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch indicted by the special counsel Robert S. Mueller. The website initially shared an address with the Internet Research Agency, the Russian government “troll factory” accused of using fake social media accounts and online propaganda to disrupt the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Russia analysts who have followed Mr. Bausman’s work say it has the hallmarks of a disinformation project. Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who researches Russian propaganda campaigns, said his messaging merged seamlessly with that of Mr. Putin’s government.

“The initial purpose of his outlet was to muddle the truth in American circles about Crimea,” she said. “And then you see his outlet and others repurposed to support the Kremlin narrative about Syria, and then the 2016 U.S. elections.

“It appears,” she said, “to be a classic Russian influence operation.”

With Donald J. Trump’s 2016 presidential victory, Mr. Bausman’s media outlet began to promote more extreme views. In a celebratory post after the election, he struck a militant chord that shocked old friends.

“Trump’s election is perhaps akin to Luther nailing his theses to the door, but now the demons are wakened, and they know they must fight or be killed, and as in the 16th century, they will not go quietly,” he wrote. “And there will be blood. Let us hope that it is the figurative, digital kind, and not the real, red, hot, sticky stuff.”

A turning point came in January 2018, when Mr. Bausman posted a lengthy polemic, “It’s Time to Drop the Jew Taboo,” that was both an antisemitic manifesto and a call to action for the alt-right.

“The evidence suggests that much of human enterprise dominated and shaped by Jews is a bottomless pit of trouble with a peculiar penchant for mendacity and cynicism, hostility to Christianity and Christian values, and in geopolitics, a clear bloodlust,” he wrote.

It was welcomed by white nationalist figures like Richard Spencer, who called it “a major event.”

Outside the far right, Mr. Bausman’s embrace of antisemitism was widely condemned. The U.S. State Department flagged it in a report on human-rights concerns in Russia, and the diatribe prompted a disavowal from RT.

After the death in August 2018 of his mother, who left an estate valued at about $2.6 million, Mr. Bausman bought two properties in Lancaster, Pa., where his family had roots.

His older sister, Mary-Fred Bausman-Watkins, said last year that her brother “was always short on money” and that their parents frequently helped him out, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, which has compiled several reports on his activities. Ms. Bausman-Watkins died in May.

“They funded his whole life,” she told the center, “and then he inherited their money when they died, and they’re still funding his life.”

While living in Lancaster with his Russian wife and two young daughters, Mr. Bausman turned his attention to two new websites devoted largely to white nationalist content. Headlines included: “Out of Control Black Violence” and “Jewish Intellectuals Call on Gays to Perform Sex Acts in Front of Children.”

Mr. Bausman concealed his ownership of one of these sites, National Justice, through a private registration, which The New York Times confirmed by reviewing data leaked last year from Epik, a web-hosting service favored by the far right. The site has the same name as a white nationalist organization and featured posts by one of its leaders, though it is not the group’s official site, according to its chairman, Michael Peinovich.

In an interview, Mr. Peinovich said Mr. Bausman had hosted party members at his farmstead for an inaugural meeting in 2020 (a large event first reported by a local news outlet, LancasterOnline). But afterward, he said, his group “went our own way” because it did not agree with Mr. Bausman’s preoccupation with supporting Mr. Trump.

Three days before Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Bausman allowed Rod of Iron Ministries, a gun-themed religious sect led by a son of the Rev. Sun Myung Moon, to meet at his property, according to photos on social media. Members of the sect had been active in “Stop the Steal” rallies, some of which Mr. Bausman had also attended, and were at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

On Facebook, Mr. Bausman posted an appeal for people to go to Washington “to support Trump.” At various points during the riot, Mr. Bausman can be seen inside the Capitol, often using his phone to record the chaos.

Mr. Bausman, right, has said he entered the Capitol in the capacity of a journalist.Credit…via YouTube

Afterward, he returned to Lancaster and gave a lengthy interview for a video about the insurrection produced by Arkady Mamontov, a Russian television host known for splashy pro-Kremlin propaganda pieces. The video also included footage of Mr. Bausman outside his home that appears to have been filmed months earlier. Mr. Mamontov did not respond to a request for comment.

In the video, Mr. Bausman suggested, without evidence, that federal agents had instigated the violence at the Capitol to “discredit Trump,” and he painted a dystopian, conspiratorial picture of American society. It is a theme that he has carried forward to more recent appearances on Mr. Malofeev’s television network, in which he has accused Western media of lying about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It is not clear when Mr. Bausman left the U.S., but he was in Moscow for a TV appearance on the day of President Biden’s inauguration, two weeks after the insurrection at the Capitol. In the white nationalist podcast interview he gave in April from Russia, he said he had not been back home since.

When asked by the host if he was still a Trump fan, Mr. Bausman said he was not, before adding with a laugh that there was one thing that could restore his loyalty.

“When he pardons me for Jan. 6,” he said.

Anton Troianovski contributed reporting.

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Woman who ran Russia propaganda center in New York charged as foreign agent

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A woman who ran a Russia propaganda center in New York City was charged on Tuesday for acting as an unregistered foreign agent for the Russian government.

Elena Branson, 61, who has both US and Russian citizenship, ran the Russian Center New York, which she founded in 2012, receiving thousands of dollars from the Russian government.

Branson received a total of $173,000 between August 2013 to November 2019 in connection to her work at the center, reported Sky News.

The center reportedly coordinated activities such as an “I love Russia” campaign aimed at American young people that promoted Russian history and culture.

Branson also serves as chairperson of the Russian Community Council of the USA, an organization with the goal of “[supporting] organizations of Russian compatriots, to preserve and popularize the Russian language and cultural and historical heritage in the United States”, according to group’s website.

Branson reportedly even invited Donald Trump or one of his children to a “Russia Forum New York” in 2016, though there is no evidence that Trump or any family members attended.

Prosecutors said that Branson, who left the US for Russia in 2020 and still remains at large, corresponded with high-ranking Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, about her campaign as Russia increased their propaganda efforts in the US.

Russian Center New York also lobbied officials in Hawaii not to change the name of a formerly Russian fort, Fort Elizabeth, on the island of Kauai, organizing a trip for Hawaiian officials to meet with Russian delegates in Moscow.

Branson has been charged with conspiring to act as an agent of a foreign government without notifying the US attorney general as well as taking part in a visa fraud conspiracy, reported the Associated Press.

Branson is also being accused of helping others illegally avoid registering as foreign agents.

While none of Branson’s educational or diplomacy activities are illegal, all US agents for foreign governments must disclose their affiliation to the Department of Justice. “All the while, Branson knew she was supposed to register as an agent of the Russian government but chose not to do so and, instead, instructed others regarding how to illegally avoid the same,” said US attorney Damian Williams.

“Particularly given current global events, the need to detect and hinder attempts at foreign influence is of critical importance, and the southern district of New York is proud to do its part in the fight against tyranny,” said Williams.

During an interview with the FBI in September 2020, Branson said that she had never been asked by Russian officials to arrange meetings with US officials.

The following month, while speaking with a Russian-state controlled TV station, Branson said that she left the US because she thought she would most likely be arrested.

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Ukraine’s drones are becoming increasingly ineffective as Russia ramps up its electronic warfare and air defenses

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In the early days of the war in Ukraine, drones emerged as an unexpected source of victory against Russian forces.

Stories of the success dominated the news cycle, played out on multiple video clips widely distributed on social media, and showed Ukraine’s drones decimating the chaotic Russian advances.

Ukraine’s ad-hoc drone airforce, from small consumer drones typically used for surveillance to the famed Turkish-designed Bayraktar TB2 drones, were credited with eviscerating Putin’s tanks and armor.

But Russia has learned from the humiliation by drones in the first months of the invasion. Experts told Insider that the drone wonder weapons are becoming increasingly ineffective because Russia has improved its defense systems and is downing and jamming many of Ukraine’s drones.

“What’s happening now is that Russia’s electronic warfare and air defenses have become better organized and fielded when compared to the earlier months of the war,” Samuel Bendett, an analyst and expert in unmanned and robotic military systems, said at the Center for Naval Analysis

Russian forces are using early warning radars to identify the drones and electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt their communication, Bendett said.

They also use various weapons like machine guns and air defense systems, such as the Tor missile system, to shoot the drones down.

Recent footage from the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to show a Krasukha-S4 electronic warfare system in action, taking out a Ukrainian drone.

According to Mark Cancian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukraine was previously able to use drones so effectively because Russia had not organized its defense systems.

“Drones were able to play such a role because the Russians were slow to set up an air defense system. They were slow to establish the combined arms operation (armor, infantry, artillery, recon, engineers, air defense) that their doctrine called for,” he said.

A video shows a kamikaze drone hit a Russian tank.

A Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit a Russian tank. Screengrab/Ukrainian Special Operations Forces

Russia has better organized and positioned its ground-based air defense in the Donbas region, where the focus of the war has shifted.

Ukrainian forces are now limiting their use of drones because Russian troops are more easily thwarting them, and losing drones can be costly.

While single-use drones such as the Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost cost several thousand dollars each, the TB2 drones can cost somewhere between $1-2 million each.

Ukraine has received about 50 TB2 drones from Turkish arms company Baykar since the Russian invasion began. 

Ruthlessly effective in the first days of the war, the TB2s have begun to be shot down by Russia, and the Ukrainian army is scaling back their use.

Reports have recently emerged that the US is planning on selling Ukraine US-made General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle armed drones, which have greater capabilities than the TB2s.

However, two unnamed Ukrainian Air Force pilots told The War Zone that they are not advocating for the drones due to their hefty price tag of $10 million each, as they are likely to get shot down on their first mission.

According to Cancian, Russia’s air defenses are almost entirely short, and medium-range missiles and drones are especially vulnerable because they fly low and slow. 

“Ukrainian pilots I have talked with say the role of drones is now limited as a result,” he said.

Instead, Ukrainian forces have advocated for modern fighter jets from its Western allies.

Ukraine soldier shoots at Russian drone

A Ukrainian serviceman shoots at a Russian drone with an assault rifle from a trench at the front line east of Kharkiv, March 31, 2022. FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images

While Ukraine’s drones are becoming less effective in this new phase of the war, Russia is flying just as many if not more of their drones, especially for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, CNA expert Bendett said.

The Ukrainians lack the weaponry to shoot them down, and one soldier told The Sunday Times: “We can’t see the Russian drones, but they can see us. The only thing we can do is hide.”

Bendett said the next few weeks will likely involve the Russian military seeking to better organize and continue to push forward in its offensive.

“It’s trying to trap Ukrainians in pockets around certain cities and towns and just trying to push and grind the Ukrainian defenses in general. Drones are playing a key part in providing intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities back to the Russians so that they can conduct strikes from the ground and the air,” Bendett said. 

“So we’re going to see drones on the Russian side, assuming probably even more important going forward, assuming that the war continues as it is right now.”

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‘A black day’ Putin humiliated as Russian navy sinks its OWN ship in latest calamity

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The Russian Navy has failed to cover itself in glory during the course of the war in Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet suffered a major setback when its flagship, the Moskva, was sunk by Ukraine in April, after being hit by two R-360 Neptune missiles. The cruiser became the largest Russian warship to be sunk in wartime since the end of World War II and the first flagship sunk since the 1905 Russo-Japanese War.

Now, Russian naval commanders appear to have further tarnished their reputations after inflicting a spectacular own goal.

Reports suggest that a Black Sea Fleet landing craft was blown up after hitting a Russian mine near Mariupol.

Twitter user “English Luhansk” wrote: “Russian navy related Telegram channel reports that the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Ondatra class landing craft D-106 hit a Russian sea mine near occupied Mariupol, calling it ‘a black day’.

Social media users showed little sympathy for the fate of the vessel and its crew as they were quick to add their own thoughts about the incident.

One wrote: “Woohoo, The Russians are gonna help clear the mines in the Black Sea, they’re off to a great start.”

While a second said: “It hit a Russian mine… great job.

Putin humiliated as Russian navy sinks its OWN ship in latest calamityPutin humiliated as Russian navy sinks its OWN ship in latest calamity (Image: Getty/Twitter)

PutinPutin at a naval inspection (Image: Getty)

“Russian ship starts de-mining their own mines.”

The Russian Navy is made up of four fleets – Pacific Fleet, Northern Fleet, Baltic Fleet and Black Sea Fleet.

Additionally, it also has one flotilla that patrols the Caspian Sea.

The Navy provides strategic deterrence through its nuclear capabilities, as well as homeland defence.

Before hostilities broke out in Ukraine, the Russian Navy had around 130,000 personnel and roughly 32 major surface vessels.

READ MORE: Russia soldiers abandon ‘relic’ tank after devastating Ukraine strike

RussiaThe Russian Navy also boasts an aircraft carrier, called the Admiral Kuznetsov (Image: Getty)

RussiaA Russian naval landing craft (GENERIC) (Image: @loogunda Twitter)

These included the Moskva along with two battlecruisers, 12 destroyers and 11 frigates.

The Russian Navy also boasts an aircraft carrier, called the Admiral Kuznetsov.

The vessel can carry approximately 24 fighter jets and 12 helicopters, as well as packing 12 P-700 anti-ship cruise missiles and almost 200 3K95 “Kinzhal” surface-to-air missiles.

However, the carrier has been plagued by mechanical breakdowns and maintenance problems.

It is currently undergoing repairs and modernisation work that seeks to extend its life for an additional 10 to 15 years.

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Ukraine warUkraine war (Image: Getty)

RussiaThe Moskva was sunk in April (Image: Getty)

Russian military sources claim that it will be at least a year before the Admiral Kuzetsov can rejoin the combat fleet.

A report in the Russian state media TASS said: “The transfer of the Admiral Kuznetsov cruiser to the fleet after modernisation and all subsequent state tests will take place no earlier than in 2024.”

It comes as fighting continues to rage in Ukraine’s Donbas, where Russian forces are seeking to take the city of Lysychansk.

In its daily bulletin, the British Ministry of Defence said Putin’s army had made “minor advances” around the city.

However, the MoD noted that Ukrainian forces “probably continue to block Russian forces in the south-eastern outskirts of Lysychansk”.

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Putin has an ‘awful bleakness awaiting him’ as despot’s mind laid bare in analysis

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Putin has suffered a string of setbacks in Ukraine since the Russian President invaded on February 24. The latest failure of the four-month war came as the Russian Navy appeared to sink one of its own ships. An Ondatra class landing craft in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet D-106 was reportedly destroyed as it hit a Russian mine this week. The apparent friendly fire incident happened near Ukraine’s southern port city of Mariupol, a Telegram channel related to the Russian navy reported on Thursday.

The loss of the vessel compounds the problems Putin has faced during the war in Ukraine, in which Russia has suffered heavy losses, and has been forced to retreat from key areas, including from strategic Black Sea outpost Snake Island.

Amid Putin’s floundering invasion, reports have also suggested that he may be deposed in a coup as his inner circle and high-ranking military officials grow increasingly dissatisfied over the war and its knock-on effects on the Russian economy, which has been crippled by Western sanctions.

One expert who has studied Putin in detail mapped out his demise years ago, warning that the Kremlin strongman faces a bleak future.

Top neuroscientist and clinical psychologist Professor Ian Robertson, the founding director of Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience, has provided world leaders with an insight into Putin’s psyche.

In 2018, the expert told the BBC: “There is an awful bleakness and blackness out there awaiting him.”

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Putin has an ‘awful bleakness and blackness awaiting him’Putin has an ‘awful bleakness and blackness awaiting him’ (Image: GETTY)

Ukraine: Russia invaded country in FebruaryUkraine: Russia invaded country in February (Image: GETTY)

Speaking in an unearthed documentary, ‘Putin: The New Tsar’, Professor Robertson hinted that the Russian people could turn on Putin as happened to Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi who was killed and dragged through the streets by Libyans in 2011.

Another scenario, according to the professor, is that Putin could eventually be tried and killed by the Russian state in a similar fate that befell Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

He said: “Even if he could arrange a handover that guaranteed he would not suffer the fate of Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, how do you replace the incredible mainlining into your reward network of exceptional power?”

Professor Robertson applied his neurological lens as he analysed Putin’s two decades in the Kremlin.

The expert discussed the gratification the Russian President will have felt by wielding so much power for so long.

Russian soldier: In MariupolRussian soldier: In Mariupol (Image: GETTY)

He said: “The human brain has a single reward network, a single feel-good network that gets switched on.

“Whenever we get paid a complement. Whenever we have sex. Whenever we take cocaine. Whenever we have power and great success.

“What happens is you get a surge of intense pleasure and satisfaction from the stimulus.

“But as you repeat that at a high level, the brain needs more and more to achieve the same effect. That is called tolerance.

“It is an insatiable appetite.”

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Ukraine: Russia has suffered losses in invasionUkraine: Russia has suffered losses in invasion (Image: GETTY)

‘Putin: The New Tsar’ looks at how the Russian leader transformed from a lowly KGB officer to presidential material as he worked his way up through Russia’s civil service.

Professor Robertson compared Putin – who changed the law to allow himself to remain in power until 2036 – to other world leaders with extended terms in office.

He said: “Almost all people who hold great power for a long time begin to feel so special.

“‘I am so amazing. God must have something to do with this.

Putin: Profile of Russian leaderPutin: Profile of Russian leader (Image: EXPRESS)

“‘Look, I can snap my fingers and they invade a country. I have the power of life and death over man and woman’.

“George W Bush confessed he thought that God was involved in his decision on the Iraq War.

“Tony Blair hinted that he had a wee chat with God now and again. Julius Caesar had himself deified while he was still alive.”

‘Putin: The New Tsar’ is available to stream on BBC iPlayer.

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The Ukraine War is Becoming Putin’s Vietnam

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As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth month with no end in sight, a number of observers are beginning to ask, “Will the West grow tired of supporting Ukraine?” Some commentators have opined that “time is on Putin’s side,” and that the fierce response of NATO and other global democracies will gradually wane in the face of economic challenges stemming from inflation, Russia’s choking off of Ukrainian agrarian and hydrocarbon products from the global economy, internal political divisions (especially in the U.S.), and issue fatigue as the relentless 24/7 news cycle moves on.

I’m old enough to remember the U.S. experience in Vietnam, and Putin’s situation is increasingly reminiscent of that long, painful misadventure. His hand of cards, weak at the start of the conflict, is getting weaker by the day. Time is more on the side of Ukraine and the west than on Putin, and as the year wears on this will become more apparent.

Let’s start with the military facts on the ground. Putin’s original goal was to conquer all of Ukraine in one sweeping thrust, decapitating the Zelensky government and installing a puppet regime in Kyiv. That “Plan A” has failed, a result of over confidence, bad intelligence, worse generalship, execrable logistics, and terrible on-the-ground leadership. His “Plan B,” is a retreat to traditional Soviet/Russian tactics: grinding out small stretches of territory and terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population with a deliberate campaign of war crimes.

But like the U.S. in Vietnam, the majority of the population in Ukraine is deeply opposed to the outside aggressor. Instead of being greeted with promised bottles of vodka when they invaded, Russian soldiers were greeted with Molotov cocktails. The revelations about war crimes will only stiffen the resistance and will of the Ukrainians, and time will only strengthen their resolve.

Thus Putin’s chances of truly upending the situation on the ground and gaining a significant additional amount of territory appear small. In essence, he started with control of 15% of Ukraine before the invasion, set of goal of gaining nearly 100%, and may end up at best at with 20-25%. That’s a failing grade on any test.

Also similar to the U.S. experience in Vietnam, Putin faces a determined foe with access to outside sanctuaries and bases. The U.S. never successfully cut off the flow of weapons to the Vietcong, and the Russians will likewise be unable to stop significant assistance headed to the Ukrainians. Indeed, the Ukrainians enjoy vastly greater weapons flows across their borders, superb intelligence and cyber support, and far more significant financial resources than the Vietcong ever did.

Read More: Ukraine Is in Worst Shape Than You Think

Casualties are also mounting rapidly, both to Russian soldiers and to their equipment. Reliable estimates indicate Russian killed in action heading toward 20,000—a staggering number almost triple what the US lost in 20 years of the forever wars. The sinking of the Black Sea flagship Moskva was a dagger in the heart of the Russian navy. Over a thousand Russian tanks have been destroyed. This level of loss is unsustainable without Putin putting Russia on a full war footing, something over time that will impact his hold at home, regardless of his media control. LBJ would understand the painful choices ahead for Putin.

In some ways, Putin’s situation is worse than the U.S. in Vietnam. Putin’s democratic opponents—the U.S., most of Europe, all of NATO, Japan, Australia and others—represent nearly 60% of the world’s GDP. Russia’s economy is only around 10%, and they are thus seriously outgunned in the economic sphere. China is showing little appetite to provide Russia a lifeline, and if the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions of those doing business with Russia, the economic situation will only become more dire over time for Putin.

Fortunately for Kyiv, the cost of support to the Ukrainians—set against the huge size of Western economies—is quite small. Compared to the billions per day pumped into Afghanistan and Iraq at the peak of operations, the cost of Ukraine at current standards of support, is modest.

Finally, strategic communications are working against Putin. President Zelensky has proven a master communicator, easily outstripping the ham-handed and implausible Russian narrative of toppling the “Nazi regime” in Kyiv. Over time, Zelensky’s skills in promoting the cause of his nation will strengthen his case.

Putin’s most likely course of action will be to secure as much territory as he possibly can before the “burn rate” in terms of Russians killed in action, destroyed equipment, crushing sanctions, and international opprobrium really kicks in. As an exit strategy, he is probably hoping the west will simply pressure the Ukrainian people into accepting an armistice that gives Russia de jure control over 20% of their nation.

That appears unlikely at this point, given all the war crimes and the Ukrainian’s spirited resistance. Both of those factors will harden in the months to come. Putin holds a bad hand of cards, and like the U.S. in Vietnam, is headed for a significant defeat. Time is not on his side.

Contact us at letters@time.com.

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Again and Again and Again

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The Tulsa mass shooting wasn’t as deadly as some feared. Instead, it was yet another American tragedy.

Police officers block an intersection at Saint Francis Hospital in Tulsa, Okla.

Police officers block an intersection at Saint Francis Hospital in Tulsa, Okla.Credit…Nick Oxford for The New York Times

In the early hours after the shooting at a Tulsa medical center on Wednesday, the details were murky. Soon, it became clear that the death toll there was not going to be as nearly as high as the tolls from the recent shootings in Uvalde and Buffalo.

Four people were killed in Tulsa (in addition to the gunman), compared with 21 in Uvalde and 10 in Buffalo. But the Tulsa shooting is nonetheless horrific in its own way — not only for its victims and their families but also for what it says about gun violence in the United States.

Shootings that kill multiple people are so common in this country that they often do not even make national news. They are a regular feature of American life. Tulsa has become the latest example — yet another gun crime that seems almost ordinary here and yet would be extremely rare in any other country as wealthy as the U.S.

To give you a sense of how common these shootings are, we’re devoting the rest of the lead item of today’s newsletter to a list of every documented mass shooting in which a gunman has killed at least three people in the U.S. so far this year. (The Gun Violence Archive defines a mass shooting as any in which at least four people are shot, including survivors.)

Among the patterns we noticed: Family disputes are a common motivation, and gang disputes are another. Every identified suspect has been a man, many under 25. Baltimore and Sacramento have experienced multiple such mass shootings this year.

A memorial near the Tops grocery store in Buffalo, where 10 people were killed last month.Credit…Kenny Holston for The New York Times

Jan. 19, Baltimore: A man who worked for a gun violence reduction program was killed in an East Baltimore neighborhood, along with two others. A fourth person was injured.

Jan. 23, Milwaukee: Five men and a woman were found shot to death at a Park West neighborhood home. The police believe the attack targeted specific people.

Jan. 23, Inglewood, Calif.: The same day, a shooting at a birthday party killed four people, including two sisters, and wounded a fifth. The shooting was gang-related, the mayor said.

Jan. 29, St. Louis: A shooting near an intersection killed three young men and wounded a fourth. Police said they had no suspects.

Feb. 5, Corsicana and Frost, Texas: A 41-year-old man murdered his mother, his stepfather, his sons and the son of his ex-girlfriend in an overnight shooting. The man later fatally shot himself.

Feb. 28, Sacramento: A man shot dead his three daughters and their chaperone at a church during a court-approved visit. The children’s mother had a restraining order against the shooter, who killed himself.

March 12, Baltimore: A shooting in Northwest Baltimore killed three men in a car and wounded a fourth.

March 19, Fayetteville, N.C.: A Saturday night shootout in a hotel parking lot killed three people and wounded another three. The shooting may have been linked to a fight between motorcycle gangs.

March 19, Norfolk, Va.: Hours later, an argument outside a bar escalated into a shooting that killed three young bystanders. One of the victims was a 25-year-old newspaper reporter whose editor called her to cover the shooting, not realizing she had been killed.

April 3, Sacramento: At least five shooters fired more than 100 rounds a block from the State Capitol, killing six people — three men and three women — and wounding 12. The police described the shooting as gang-related.

April 21, Mountain View, Ark.: A man killed his parents, another woman and her son at two homes half a mile apart in a rural community, the police say.

April 27, Biloxi, Miss.: A 32-year-old man killed the owner of the Broadway Inn Express motel and two employees in an argument over money. He fled to a neighboring town and fatally shot a fourth person. Police later found the gunman dead, barricaded inside a convenience store.

May 8, Clarkston, Ga.: Three people were shot to death and three others were wounded at a suburban Atlanta condo complex on a Sunday night.

May 14, Buffalo: An 18-year-old avowed white supremacist killed 10 people and wounded three more with an assault-style weapon in a live-streamed attack at a supermarket.

May 24, Uvalde, Texas: An 18-year-old gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School.

May 27, Stanwood, Mich.: A 51-year-old man allegedly killed his wife and her three young children at a home in Mecosta County before shooting himself, police said. The man remains in critical condition.

June 1, Tulsa, Okla.: A gunman killed his back surgeon, another doctor, a receptionist and a visitor at a medical building. He then killed himself.

As long as this list is, it’s also a very incomplete accounting of American gun violence. It doesn’t include the at least 60 shootings that left three people dead but don’t technically count as mass shootings (because fewer than four people were shot). It doesn’t count shootings that wounded people without killing anybody, like one in Milwaukee that injured 17 people. And it leaves out the individual gun homicides and suicides that make up a majority of the gun violence that kills more than 100 Americans on an average day.

Children played in a park in Borodyanka, Ukraine, this month.Credit…Nicole Tung for The New York Times
Several generations of Britain’s royal family at the celebrations.Credit…Hannah Mckay/Reuters

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“The Wire” premiered two decades ago yesterday. The show, set in Baltimore, began as an indictment of the war on drugs and grew to explore the collapse of other institutions: blue-collar work, City Hall, public education, the media. Its audience was not huge, but it was devoted: Barack Obama, a vocal fan, hailed it as one of the greatest works of art in decades.

The show’s creators, David Simon and Ed Burns, reflected on its legacy in a Q.&A. with The Times. “This show will live forever, because what it tries to portray will be around forever,” Burns says. “It’s just getting worse and worse.”

In an appraisal, The Times’s chief television critic, James Poniewozik, applauds the show’s ensemble cast. It looked like the city it portrayed, with Black actors playing the good, the bad and the morally conflicted. “‘The Wire’ was determined not to be another story of hero cops and faceless perps,” he writes. “No group on ‘The Wire’ would be less fully human than any other.” — Natasha Frost, a Briefings writer

Credit…Andrew Purcell for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.
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