Indonesian authorities raised the warning on Semeru volcano on the island of Java to the highest level on Sunday after an eruption spewed a column of ash high into the air.

The evacuation of people, which includes children and seniors, living near the volcano in East Java province had also begun with 93 residents so far evacuated to shelters, Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency, BNPB said in a statement.

The plume from the volcano reached a height of 50,000 feet (15 km), said Japan’s Meteorology Agency, which was monitoring for the possibility of a tsunami there.

The eruption on the eastern part of Java, some 640 km (400 miles) east of the capital Jakarta, follows a series of earthquakes on the west of the island, including one last month that killed more than 300 people.

Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, PVMBG, raised the level of volcanic activity to IV from III, its chief said in a text message.

With the raised alert level, authorities warned residents not to conduct any activities within 8 km (5 miles) of Semeru’s eruption centre, adding hot ash clouds had reached as far as 11.8 miles (19km) from the centre of eruption.

PVMBG chief Hendra Gunawan said the agency saw the potential for a bigger supply of magma this year compared to previous eruptions in 2021 and 2020.

“Therefore Semeru’s hot clouds could reach further (this year) and at that distance there are many residences,” he said.

Around the same time last year, the eruption of Semeru, Java’s tallest mountain, killed more than 50 people and left several missing, while thousands were displaced.

Some residents nearby have evacuated independently to safer buildings like mosques and schools, according to a statement from the regional government of Lumajang, where Semeru is located.

“Most of the roads have been closed since this morning. Now its raining volcanic ash and it has covered the view of the mountain,” Bayu Deny Alfianto, a local volunteer told Reuters by phone.

Small eruptions were continuing and it was raining in the area, he said.

The volcano began erupting at 2:46 a.m. (1946 GMT on Saturday), BNPB, said in a statement. Videos posted on social media showed grey ash clouds in nearby areas.

With 142 volcanoes, Indonesia has the largest population globally living in close range to a volcano, including 8.6 million within 10 km (6 miles).

The deadly late-November quake that hit West Java’s Cianjur was a shallow temblor of 5.6 magnitude. A much deeper quake on Saturday in Gurat of 6.1 magnitude sent people running from buildings but did not cause major damage.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) carried out a nuclear safety and security mission to the Pivdennoukrainska Nuclear Power Plant (PNPP) this week as it steps up its efforts to help prevent a nuclear accident during the current armed conflict in the country, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said.

“The IAEA team’s assessments will help inform the follow-up missions to the PNPP to provide the Agency’s continuing assistance and support. The IAEA’s initial missions to the Rivne and Khmelnytsky plants will take place next week,” he said in a statement on Friday night.

The Director General clarified that a high-level IAEA delegation to the PNPP, after their visit headed by him in late March stayed for the first time at the site for several days to acquire a better understanding of the nuclear safety and security situation and of the plant’s needs.

According to him, the IAEA experts observed that the PNPP staff continue to operate the plant with high professionalism and in accordance with the design and in compliance with the approved operational license, in particular with operational procedures and safety limits, despite the very challenging conditions arising from the armed conflict in Ukraine, with numerous air raid warnings.

The IAEA team also learned more about the loss of external power on 23 November, and the subsequent shutdown of the two operating units, that resulted from attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. “The site’s diesel generators were able to provide power to maintain nuclear safety and security systems, but there were some plant challenges and there was also an impact on on-site and off-site communications,” the Director General noted.

He also added that the team also assessed logistics and spare parts management and reviewed the list of support equipment earlier requested through the Ukraine regulator. This led to a better understanding of site needs and how the IAEA can provide further assistance with regard to nuclear safety and security.

With regard to ZNPP, Grossi expressed concern about the latest personnel decisions demonstrating open contradictions regarding subordination at the plant, which could negatively affect nuclear safety and physical security. He clarified that this week it was announced on site and by the Russian Federation that ZNPP’s Chief Engineer Yuri Chernichuk has been appointed as plant director, while the Ukraine operator Energoatom has rejected this appointment and has appointed Dmytro Verbytsky as acting director general of the plant, and Ihor Murashov as chief engineer, who are not on the site.

Director General Grossi reiterated that the IAEA regards ZNPP as a Ukrainian facility.

He also reported that up to 70 mobile diesel boilers are being gradually deployed in the nearby city of Enerhodar to provide for heating of communal buildings, houses and flats. Currently, these boilers operate at a local school, kindergarten and the hospital. In addition, up to seven mobile diesel boilers are being deployed on the ZNPP site to heat buildings at the site.

Four of the reactor units remain in cold shutdown, while the two other units are in hot shutdown – enabling them to provide steam to the plant and heat to Enerhodar. The city also continues to receive electricity from the off-site power lines through the ZNPP and thermal power plant switchyards system.

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The war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the result, but the cause of NATO expansion, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

According to Ukrinform, he said this in his remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.

“Russia wasn’t provoked. Russia wasn’t threatened. Russia wasn’t attacked. Instead, one man chose war. And Putin’s war is not the result of NATO expansion. It is the cause of NATO expansion. And now, because of the Kremlin’s longing for a vanished empire, Europe faces its worst security crisis since the end of World War II,” Austin said.

He recalled that Russia, as a member of the UN Security Council, “is waging war to deny democracy to more than 43 million people.”

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A $60 price cap set on Russian oil agreed by the EU, G7 and Australia is not “serious” because it is “quite comfortable” for Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday.

“Russia has already caused huge losses to all countries of the world by deliberately destabilizing the energy market,” he argued in his nightly address, describing the decision on the price cap as “a weak position”.

It is “only a matter of time when stronger tools will have to be used anyway”, Zelensky added. “It is a pity that this time will be lost.

“The logic is obvious: if the price limit for Russian oil is $60 instead of, for example, $30, which Poland and the Baltic countries talked about, then the Russian budget will receive about a hundred billion dollars a year…

“This money will also be used to further destabilize precisely those countries that are now trying to avoid big decisions.”

During the negotiations on where to set the price cap, Poland in particular tried to hold out for a lower level of $30, before finally agreeing on Friday to the higher ceiling.

The post Zelensky: Price Cap Level on Russian Oil ‘Not Serious’ appeared first on Kyiv Post.

• Recent polling suggests that Russian public support for the ‘special military operation’ is falling significantly.
• An independent Russian media outlet has claimed access to data collected by Russia’s Federal Protective Service for internal use. The data indicated 55% of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25% claiming to support continuing the conflict. These results are consistent with a separate October 2022 survey where 57% of respondents reported being in favour of talks. In April 2022, around 80% of Russians claimed to support the operation.
• Despite the Russian authorities’ efforts to enforce pervasive control of the information environment, the conflict has become increasingly tangible for many Russians since the September 2022 ‘partial mobilisation’. With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield successes in the next several months, maintaining even tacit approval of the war amongst the population is likely to be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin.

The post British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine – 04 December 2022 appeared first on Kyiv Post.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City.
• French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the need for NATO to consider “security guarantees” to be given to Russia during putative negotiations in a televised interview on December 3.
• Conditions in eastern Ukraine are likely becoming more conducive to a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.
• The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus.
• Ukrainian forces likely continue to advance northwest of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian authorities reportedly evacuated Russian collaborators from Oleshky.
• The Russian National Guard’s (Rosgvardia) Organizational and Staff Department confirmed that mobilization continues despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on October 31.
• Russian authorities are continuing to use judicial measures to consolidate administrative control of occupied territories.

Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower near the shore.[1] Special Unit “Carlson” reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south.

French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the West’s need to discuss Russian “security guarantees” in a televised interview on December 3.[4] Macron stated that the West should consider how to address Russian security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine: “That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table.”[5] ISW has extensively documented how the Kremlin demanded “security guarantees” and declared  “lines” as part of the ultimatum it presented the US and NATO before launching the February 2022 invasion.[6] Russia’s demanded security guarantees entail partially dismantling NATO by returning NATO to its 1997 borders and grants Russia a veto on future NATO expansion by demanding NATO suspend its “Open Door” policy.[7]  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to these precise demands on December 1, as ISW previously reported.[8]  The Russian demand for supposed “security guarantees” is part of a larger Russian information operation that portrays NATO as having provoked the 2022 Russian invasion by threatening Russia. The security guarantees that Ukraine, NATO, and the rest of Europe would accept from Russia following the Kremlin’s unprovoked and brutal war of conquest against Ukraine might be a more appropriate topic of conversation for Western leaders considering negotiations with Moscow.

Independent Russian polling data indicates that Russian citizens still support Russia’s military operations in Ukraine despite growing war weariness over the past six months. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center found that 74 percent of Russians support Russian forces’ actions in the war in Ukraine in a November poll published on December 2.[9] The poll found that 42 percent of respondents “strongly support” and 32 percent “somewhat support” Russian forces’ actions in Ukraine.[10] The poll also found that only 41 percent of respondents favored Russia continuing military operations in Ukraine, however, whereas 53 percent said that Russia should begin peace negotiations.[11] Levada Center polling between July and November 2022 shows small but consistent erosion in support for the war among Russians.[12] Levada Center findings are similar to a reported internal Kremlin-commissioned poll from November that found that 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine and only 25 percent favor continuing the war.[13]

Both polls indicate that a shrinking but still significant portion of Russian citizens support—and are even enthusiastic about—continuing the war in Ukraine despite Russian military failures. Russian morale and political support for the war will likely further degrade with time if current trends hold. The longer the war continues to produce Russian casualties while Ukrainian forces gain ground the more the socio-political dynamics will likely continue to turn against the Kremlin. An operational pause under the guise of peace negotiations could alleviate growing political pressure on the Kremlin and allow Russia to reconstitute its forces for subsequent renewed offensive operations.

Conditions in eastern Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in. A Russian milblogger claimed on December 3 that the ground has frozen along the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will likely increase the pace of their counteroffensive operations in the area as a result.[14] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also stated on December 2 that weather is finally changing on the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their counter-offensive maneuver operations as mud in the area fully freezes.[15] ISW has previously assessed that the overall pace of operations is likely to increase in the coming weeks as consistent cold weather allows the ground to freeze throughout the theater, especially in eastern Ukraine where operations on both sides have been bogged down by heavy mud.[16] Neither Russians nor Ukrainians will likely suspend offensive operations in one of the most optimal times of year for mechanized maneuver warfare in this region.

The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus. Russian Minister of Defense Army General Sergei Shoigu met with Belarusian Minister of Defense Major General Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the Agreement on the Joint Provision of Regional Security in the Military Sphere.[17] Shoigu also met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during which Lukashenko stated that Belarusian and Russian forces continue to train together on Belarusian territory so that the “Union State [can] repel any aggression.[18] Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and Lukashenko in an attempt to place pressure on Belarus to further support Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine. ISW has previously assessed that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain Lukashenko’s willingness to do so.[19]

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri reportedly met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin in Tehran on December 3.[20] The two discussed unspecified military cooperation, according to official readouts from Iranian state media. They may have discussed the sale of Iranian drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. Bagheri is Iran’s chief of defense and is responsible for military policy and strategic guidance. The meeting has not been reported in Russian media as of this writing.

The post ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3 appeared first on Kyiv Post.

More Chinese cities including Urumqi in the far west announced an easing of coronavirus curbs on Sunday as China tries to make its zero-COVID policy more targeted and less onerous after unprecedented protests against restrictions last weekend.

Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang region and where the protests first erupted, will reopen malls, markets, restaurants and other venues from Monday, authorities said, ending strict lockdowns after months.

There was no sign of any significant unrest this weekend, although police were out in force in the Liangmaqiao area of Beijing and in Shanghai around Wulumuqi Road, which is named after Urumqi. Both sites saw protests a week ago.

A deadly fire last month in Urumqi sparked dozens of protests against COVID curbs in over 20 cities after some social media users said victims had been unable to escape the blaze because their apartment building was locked down. Authorities denied that.

The protests were an unprecedented show of civil disobedience in mainland China since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012.

In the days since, numerous cities have announced the easing of lockdowns, testing requirements, and quarantine rules.

Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who oversees COVID efforts, said last week the ability of the virus to cause disease was weakening – a change in messaging that aligns with what many health authorities around the world have said for more than a year.

China is set to further announce a nationwide easing of testing requirements as well as allowing positive cases and close contacts to isolate at home under certain conditions, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week.

For the time being, steps to ease restrictions have varied across the country.

From Monday, people in Shanghai will no longer have to show a negative COVID test to take public transport and visit parks, authorities announced on Sunday.

Earlier on Sunday, the city of Nanning, capital of the southern region of Guangxi, cancelled a requirement for a negative COVID test to take the subway.

On Saturday in Beijing, authorities said the purchase of fever, cough and sore throat medicines no longer required registration. The restriction had been imposed because authorities believed people were using the medication to hide COVID infections.

Authorities in various districts in the capital have in recent days announced that people who test positive for the virus can quarantine at home.

Some inconsistencies as the restrictions are eased have angered people, including a requirement in some places for a negative COVID test even though mass testing centres were closing.

In Beijing and Wuhan city, where the virus first emerged in late 2019, that caused lengthy queues at the few remaining testing booths.

“Are they stupid or just plain mean?” one social media user asked. “We shouldn’t shut down COVID testing stations until we get rid of the COVID test pass.”

New daily case numbers dropped nationwide to 31,824, authorities said on Sunday, which may be due in part to fewer people being tested. Authorities also reported two new COVID deaths.

Xi’s zero-COVID policy has made China had a devastating impact on the world’s second-largest economy and roiled global supply chains.

China argues the policy, which has all-but-shut its borders to travel, is necessary to save lives and prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed.

Despite the easing of restrictions, many experts said China was unlikely to begin significant reopening before March at the earliest, given the need to ramp up vaccinations, especially among its vast elderly population.

“Although there have been quite a few local changes to COVID policies lately, we do not interpret them as China abandoning zero-COVID policy just yet,” Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday.

“Rather, we see them as clear evidence of the Chinese government preparing for an exit, and trying to minimize the economic and social cost of COVID control in the meantime. The preparations may last a few months and there are likely to be challenges along the way.”

Estimates for how many deaths China could see if it pivots to a full reopening have ranged from 1.3 million to more than 2 million, though some researchers said the death toll could be reduced sharply if there was a focus on vaccination.

Authorities recently announced they would speed up COVID vaccinations for elderly people but many remain reluctant to get the jab.

“Some people have doubts about the safety and effectiveness of the country’s new coronavirus vaccine,” an article in the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily said on Sunday.

“Experts say this perception is wrong,” it said, adding that domestically made vaccines were safe.

Foreign COVID vaccines are not approved in China and Xi is unwilling to change that, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Saturday.

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