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How Weed Became the New OxyContin

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For 30 years, Dr. Libby Stuyt, a recently retired addiction psychiatrist in Pueblo, Colorado, treated patients with severe drug dependency. Typically, that meant alcohol, heroin, and methamphetamines. But about five years ago, she began to see something new.

“I started seeing people with the worst psychosis symptoms that I have ever seen,” she told me. “And the worst delusions I have ever seen.”

These cases were even more acute than what she’d seen from psychotic patients on meth. Some of the delusions were accompanied by “severe violence.” But these patients were coming up positive only for cannabis.

Stuyt wasn’t alone: Health care professionals throughout Colorado and all over the country were seeing similar episodes.

Ben Cort, who runs an addiction recovery center in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, watched a young man jump up on the table in the emergency department and strip naked, claiming he was the God of thunder and threatening to kill everyone in the room, including two police officers. A collegiate athlete Cort worked with also had a psychotic episode and was shot five times by the police with a beanbag gun before he was subdued. In Los Angeles County, Blue Stohr, a psychiatric social worker, had a patient who climbed a 700-foot crane and considered jumping off of it, not because he was suicidal but because he thought he was in a computer simulation, like The Matrix.

Those patients, too, were high only on cannabis.

In 2012, Colorado legalized marijuana. In the decade since, 18 other states have followed suit. As billions of dollars have flowed into the new above-ground industry of smokable, edible, and drinkable cannabis-based products, the drug has been transformed into something unrecognizable to anyone who grew up around marijuana pre-legalization. Addiction medicine doctors and relatives of addicts say it has become a hardcore drug, like cocaine or methamphetamines. Chronic use leads to the same outcomes commonly associated with those harder substances: overdose, psychosis, suicidality. And yet it’s been marketed as a kind of elixir and sold like candy for grown-ups.

“I got into addiction medicine because of the opioid crisis,” said Dr. Roneet Lev, an addiction medicine doctor in San Diego who hosts a podcast about drug abuse. Years ago, she advocated against the overprescription of opioid painkillers like OxyContin. Now, she believes she’s seeing the same thing all over again: the specious claims of medical benefits, the denial of adverse effects. “From Big Tobacco to Big Pharma to Big Marijuana—it’s the same people, and the same pattern.”

Prior to legalization, marijuana plants were bred to produce higher and higher concentrations of THC, a naturally occuring chemical compound in the plant that induces euphoria and alters users’ perceptions of reality. In the 1960s, the stuff the hippies were smoking was less than 2% THC. By the ’90s, it was closer to 5%. By 2015, it was over 20%. “It’s a freak plant that resembles nothing of what has existed in nature,” said Laura Stack, a public speaker who has advocated against the industry since her son, Johnny, killed himself three years ago at 19 years old after years of cannabis abuse drove him into psychosis.

In the era of legalized weed, the drug you think of as “cannabis” can hardly be called marijuana at all. The kinds of cannabis products that are sold online and at dispensaries contain no actual plant matter. They’re made by putting pulverized marijuana into a tube and running butane, propane, ethanol, or carbon dioxide through it, which separates the THC from the rest of the plant. The end product is a wax that can be 70% to 80% THC. That wax can then be put in a vacuum oven and further concentrated into oils that are as much as 95% or even 99% THC. Known as “dabs,” this is what people put in their vape pens, and in states like California and Colorado it’s totally legal and easily available to children. “There are no caps on potency,” said Stack.

If you’re over 30 years old and you used to smoke weed when you were a teenager, the strongest you were smoking was probably 20% THC. Today, teenagers are “dabbing” a product that’s three, four, or five times stronger, and are often doing so multiple times a day. At that level of potency, the impact of the drug on a user’s brain belongs to an entirely different category of risk than smoking a joint or taking a bong rip of even an intensively bred marijuana flower. It’s highly addictive, and over time, there’s a significant chance it can drive you insane.

If you’ve ever smoked a bowl and become irrationally anxious that everyone is staring at you and knows you’re high, what you experienced was a mild symptom of cannabis-induced psychosis. According to one study, about 40% of people react this way. If you experience that paranoia and keep smoking on a regular basis nonetheless—especially with today’s high-potency THC products, and especially if you’re young—there’s a good chance you’ll eventually suffer a full psychotic break; 35% of young people who experience psychotic symptoms, according to another study, eventually have such an episode. If you keep using after that, you run a decent risk of ending up permanently schizophrenic or bipolar. Cannabis has by far the highest conversion rate to schizophrenia of any substance—higher than meth, higher than opioids, higher than LSD. Two Danish studies, as well as a massive study from Finland, put your chances at close to 50%.

“One out of every 20 daily users can expect to develop schizophrenia if they don’t quit,” Dr. Christine Miller, an expert on psychotic disorders, told me.

But quitting THC products of that potency is “almost impossible,” Stuyt said, comparing its addictive power to tobacco. The days of marijuana addiction being merely “psychological” are over. “There is a definite withdrawal syndrome that includes irritability, anger, anxiety, massive cravings, can’t sleep, can’t eat,” said Stuyt.

And it’s even harder because so many users believe it’s good for them.

As a teenager, Kevin Bright suffered from depression and anxiety. He started smoking pot at around 15 years old to self-medicate. As his tolerance built up, he started using THC concentrates—the stuff made from those high-potency waxes and oils—which was legal and easily available in the Bay Area suburb where he grew up. His personality began to unravel, his father, Bart, told me. He was constantly irate. He attempted suicide several times—once by ingesting pills, once by trying to hang himself, and another time by driving his car into the Bay. Then he began developing full-blown delusions, imagining that the FBI was after him. When he called his parents, he would scream at them in gibberish. Eventually, at 29 years old, he put a plastic bag over his head and breathed nitrous oxide through a tube until he suffocated to death.

Kevin had a hardcore drug addiction, but in his imagination, he was just taking medicine—and a $13 billion industry was telling him he was right.

“The line about it being medicine—he bought that,” Bright said about his son. “I told people, what medicine do you get from a doctor that’s 100% always approved, that you can get within 10 to 15 minutes online, you can take as much as you want per year, you never have to come back to renew it?”

Since marijuana is still considered a Schedule I Controlled Substance by the federal government, there’s no such thing as a “prescription” for medical cannabis. Instead, you can get a “recommendation” from a physician.

“This doctor’s recommendation typically has no expiration, has no dose, has no duration, and no change across state lines,” Ben Cort said. “It’s basically, ‘Take as much as you want as often as you want until you feel what you want.’” (Colorado has tightened rules around medical cards, but only for 18- to 20-year-olds, in an effort to mitigate drug dealing in high schools.)

To get a recommendation, you can go to websites with names like “NuggMD” and get approved in less than 10 minutes. With that recommendation, you can acquire a state-licensed medical marijuana card. In states where recreational use of cannabis is legal, you don’t need a medical marijuana card to buy cannabis products, but the card exempts you from certain taxes—it’s basically a discount card for high-frequency users.

At a dispensary, there’s no distinction between cannabis products made to be consumed for fun and ones created for their supposed healing properties. “You walk into a store, it’s the exact same product,” Cort said. “If you have a med card, you pay less tax.”

The array of products on offer is dazzling. On WeedMaps.com, you can buy your cannabis in the form of a joint, flower, vape, concentrate (budder, crumble, or crystalline), cookie, brownie, corn nut, caramel corn, jalapeño cheese cracker, rice crispie bar, macaron, pretzel bite, cereal, tincture, syrup, seltzer, iced tea, herbal tea, tonic, apple juice, punch, mocktail, root beer, cream soda, lemonade, agua fresca, powder, gummy, mint, chocolate, gum, balm, salve, bath bomb, salt, oil, shower gel, or soap, and have it delivered to your doorstep.

These products are all sold as “medicine,” even though none of them is FDA-approved. (There are only four cannabis-based drugs that have received FDA authorization, all of which require prescriptions.) And although it’s illegal for anyone without a medical degree to offer medical advice, dispensary “budtenders” do it all the time. Their advice is completely evidence-free, because no evidence exists that the specific products they sell have any medicinal value.

“Drug companies are forever doing drug trials to see if this new drug helps or doesn’t help,” said Dr. Robin Murray, a psychiatric researcher at King’s College London who specializes in cannabis-induced schizophrenia. “Why would cannabis companies do this? They’re doing so well without the trials. The trial might show that it wasn’t helpful. So they’ve got no incentive to do these trials.”

“There is research out there supporting the use of cannabis for some medical conditions,” said Stuyt, “But it’s all less than 10% THC. Nothing has been studied greater than 10%. But we have all this research showing that greater than 10% puts you at risk for psychosis, addiction, suicide, cannabis hyperemesis syndrome [constant, severe vomiting]—all these things that high-potency THC is doing.”

“High-potency” describes almost all of the cannabis products sold in the United States today, the vast majority of which are over 15% THC.

Dr. David Smith, an addiction medicine doctor who founded the Haight Ashbury Free Clinic in 1967, is highly optimistic about the prospects of cannabis research for medical purposes, as well as the medical potential of psilocybin and other psychedelics. “There’s a lot of promise in cannabis medicine,” he told me. “But you’re not going to get that by vaping in a classroom.” The pantomime version of drug prescription that characterizes the cannabis market today “is not the way medicine’s supposed to be practiced,” he told me.

“It’s insulting to the medical profession,” said Dr. Lev. “They’ve hijacked the word ‘medical.’”

“This is not medicine,” said Stuyt. “This high-potency THC has not been studied as medicine. But because it’s allowed to be heavily marketed and advertised as medicine, people believe it’s safe. And so they believe it’s medicine. And when you take medicine for a chronic problem, you take it every day. Sometimes you take it all day long. And that makes you addicted to it. And so then you’re in constant withdrawal.”

To imagine the market potential for a legal, highly addictive drug, all you have to do is look at the colossal success of the industries that pioneered the addiction business: tobacco, alcohol, and pharmaceuticals. Today, all three are heavily invested in cannabis. In 2019, Altria, the parent company of Marlboro cigarettes, acquired 45% of Cronos, one of the world’s biggest cannabis companies. Constellation Brands, a major alcohol conglomerate, has billions invested in Canopy, another cannabis company. Last year, Jazz Pharmaceuticals acquired GW Pharmaceuticals, the company that makes one of the four FDA-approved, cannabis-derived drugs. Even a former CEO of Purdue Pharma, the company that made OxyContin, co-founded a medical marijuana company called Emblem after helping to create the modern opioid epidemic.

“People think it’s a miracle drug, that it’s nonaddictive, that it helps with cancer and anxiety,” said Jordan Davidson, who recovered from cannabis addiction and now works for Smart Approaches to Marijuana, which advocates against the expansion of the cannabis industry. “It’s more like Big Tobacco 2.0.”

The future of the industry that these investors are now betting on is focused on families like Aubree Adams’ in Pueblo, Colorado.

Aubree’s older son started using legal cannabis products in the eighth grade. By his freshman year in high school, he was addicted. He became psychotic: “Self-harming, violent behaviors, couldn’t even regulate any moods—crying obsessively, inconsolable, paranoid over things, thinking people were after us,” his mother recounted. He tried to kill his little brother several times. Once Aubree’s younger son had to run away from his brother barefoot in the snow. Aubree had to quit her job to stay home to protect him. Her older son attempted suicide. He started selling marijuana, and ended up on the streets. He got beat up. Someone threatened to shoot up the family’s house.

On one occasion, Aubree found herself trying to calm down her son as he frantically searched the house for the key to the lock on the family’s gun, believing people were coming after him. “There were many moments when I had to tell my younger son, ‘Get out of the house,’” Aubree said. “There were moments when I said, ‘Get the dog. Lock yourself in my bedroom.’”

When Aubree tried to get her son to stop he would say, “It’s medicine, Mom. You’re the only one not using it, Mom. Maybe you need to start using it, Mom. You’ll feel better. What you’re saying is a lie, Mom. It’s all propaganda, Mom.”

Even while watching all of this unfold, Aubree’s husband began secretly using cannabis as well, believing it would calm his anxiety. He went to a dispensary and complained about panic attacks. The budtender readily offered him spurious medical advice, recommending marijuana flowers that were 24% THC. Aubree’s husband began regularly consuming cannabis as his family was falling apart, and fell into a pattern of depression and suicidal ideation.

It’s a common pattern: People start consuming cannabis to fix their anxiety, but the withdrawal from the THC instigates anxiety instead of alleviating it. “People think, ‘Oh, it’s my symptoms. That’s why I need it. I’m anxious and it’s treating my anxiety,’” said Stuyt. “No: It’s the withdrawal that’s causing your anxiety.”

It’s a vicious cycle that’s great for business. At the root of the misconception is the myth that “cannabis” as it exists today is a safe, natural, medicinal substance. But if people thought of today’s high-potency THC products the way they think of hard drugs, far fewer people would fall under its influence—which is why it’s so important to the industry that they don’t.

“Everybody knows meth is bad,” Cort said. “There’s not a user who does not think meth is bad. You survey America, about 65% of them are going to tell you there’s nothing wrong with weed.”

And now those Americans are facing a tidal wave of corporate advertising telling them they’re right.

“This is a for-profit industry,” said Stuyt. “And they profit off of addiction.”

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Putin shown in tense encounter with chief of staff at Far East war games

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LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin was shown in an awkward encounter with his military chief of staff on Tuesday as he inspected war games in Russia’s Far East, thousands of miles from the war in Ukraine.

The Zvezda military news service published video of Putin and chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov entering an observation booth, sitting down with a wide space between them and maintaining an uncomfortable silence while waiting for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to arrive.

Gerasimov stroked his hair and shuffled papers and Putin picked up and peered through a pair of binoculars, at one point acknowledging a comment from the general by nodding tersely.

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The awkward body language drew scrutiny from political and military analysts on social media.

“Putin obviously doesn’t even want to talk with the commander of the Russian armed forces,” wrote former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt on Twitter.

In a separate clip, the mood appeared lighter as Putin and Shoigu were shown exchanging a joke while Gerasimov spoke on the phone.

Gerasimov has been almost absent from public view during the 195 days of Russia’s war in Ukraine, prompting speculation about his standing with Putin and even at times about his health.

Having captured about a fifth of the country, Russia has been fought to a virtual standstill while suffering heavy losses in troops and equipment.

By proceeding with the four-yearly “Vostok” (East) war games, Putin appeared to be sending a signal that Russia’s military is able to conduct business as usual despite the demands of the war.

But the defence ministry says the exercises that began on Sept. 1 involve only 50,000 troops, a fraction of the 300,000 they said took part in 2018. Western military analysts say they believe both figures are exaggerated.

The manoeuvres have included forces from both India and China, though it was not clear if Putin had seen troops from those countries in action.

On Tuesday the defence ministry released video of the naval part of the exercise, showing Russia’s Pacific Fleet practising launching Kalibr cruise missiles which it said had successfully struck a target more than 300 km (185 miles) away.

On Monday, Russian and Chinese combat ships practised repelling an enemy air attack using air defence artillery systems. Last week warships from the two countries carried out anti-ship, anti-air and anti-submarine defence tasks in the Sea of Japan, the ministry said.

Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” partnership in February, promising to collaborate more closely against the West.

Russia is the biggest supplier of military hardware to India, which went ahead with the exercise days after the United States said it had concerns about any country holding such manoeuvres with Russia now.

Moscow says the war games also involve military contingents and observers from Algeria, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and six former Soviet republics.

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Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Angus MacSwan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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The Inside Story of CIA v Russia: From Cold War Conspiracy to ‘Black’ Propaganda in Ukraine

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In the early 1990s, Senator Patrick Moynihan campaigned for the abolition of the CIA. The brilliant campaigner thought the US Department of State should take over its intelligence functions. For him, the age of secrecy was over.

In a New York Times opinion piece, Moynihan wrote:

“For 30 years the intelligence community systematically misinformed successive presidents as to the size and growth of the Soviet economy … Somehow our analysts had internalised a Soviet view of the world.”

In the speech introducing his Abolition of the CIA Bill in January 1995, Moynihan cited British author John le Carré’s scorn for the idea that the CIA had contributed to victory in the cold war against the Soviet Union of Leonid Brezhnev and his successors. “The Soviet Empire did not fall apart because the spooks had bugged the man’s room in the Kremlin or put broken glass in Mrs Brezhnev’s bath,” Le Carré had written.

This was one of the CIA’s lowest points since its establishment in 1947 (my new book marks the agency’s 75th anniversary). It was created with two key goals in mind: thwarting Soviet expansionism, and preventing another surprise attack like that carried out by the Japanese on Pearl Harbour during the second world war. While Moynihan’s campaign to shut down the CIA did not ultimately prevail, there was certainly a widespread perception that the agency was no longer fit for purpose and should be curtailed.

Throughout the cold war, many had regarded fighting communism as the CIA’s raison d’être. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the agency’s role was less clear, and it came under heavy criticism for having distorted intelligence and “blatantly pandered” to one ideological viewpoint: blind anti-communism. Without the cold war, Moynihan predicted, the CIA would become “a kind of retirement programme for a cadre of cold warriors not really needed any longer”.

Three decades on, however, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has put Russia’s threat to the stability of the world back at the top of the US foreign agenda. With a formidable Kremlinologist now in charge of the CIA and Donald Trump out of the presidential picture (for the moment, at least), the agency might be expected to be an influential player in the US response to this “new cold war”. But how much does Washington trust the CIA these days – and how much influence does it really have on events in Ukraine? To shed light on these questions, we need to go back to the early days of the Ronald Reagan presidency.

‘Stay the f-ck out of my business’

As US president from 1981 to 1989, the neoconservative Reagan unleashed the CIA from restrictions that had been imposed on it during the reforming post-Vietnam 1970s.

Like other anti-communists, Reagan saw the agency as a prime weapon in weakening the Soviet Union, which he famously denounced as the “evil empire”, and preventing the worldwide spread of communism. The new US president was convinced that in opposing an unethical foe, one could not afford to be too scrupulous. He chose as his CIA director Bill Casey, a veteran of intelligence in the second world war – a time when it had been “gloves off” for dirty tricksters.

An outright cold warrior, Casey resuscitated old CIA habits, running covert operations against the left-leaning – but democratically elected – Sandinista government in Nicaragua from December 1981 to the ceasefire of March 1988. Even the veteran conservative senator Barry Goldwater admitted he was “pissed off” when, in 1984, the CIA mined Nicaragua’s harbours without informing Congress. Accosted with this oversight, the uncompromising Casey replied: “The business of Congress is to stay the fuck out of my business.”

The CIA worked closely with the Contras, right-wing terrorists who sought to overthrow the Sandinista government. The agency trained these guerrillas in secret camps in adjacent countries and organised munition drops from planes stationed in clandestine bases. In one initiative, a contracted CIA operative wrote a manual for the Contras explaining how to assassinate individuals on one’s own side – skulls had to be fractured in just the right way – and then blame the enemy.

A disapproving US Congress banned these weapons drops and cut off the necessary funds. To get around this, arms were illegally supplied to Iran (then at war with Iraq) via Israel – paid for by covert Iranian financial assistance to the Contras. However, fearing the wrath of Congress should this ruse be discovered (as it later was), the Reagan administration bypassed the CIA in administering the Iran-Contra scam. While the president had not lost confidence in the agency, this was a sign that the CIA was becoming increasingly toxic in the eyes of Congress – making it too risky to deploy its spooks in the customary manner.

On the threat posed by the Soviet Union, though, there was far greater accord. CIA director Casey lined up with the secretary of defence, Caspar Weinberger, and the majority of Reagan’s cabinet in adopting an intransigent stance towards Moscow. They were supported by the CIA’s senior Russia expert, Bob Gates, who having gained his PhD in Russian affairs without ever visiting the country, proclaimed that the Soviet Union was an example of “oriental despotism”.

A keen boy scout in his youth, Gates – whether out of conviction or career calculation – glued himself to the American flag and offered no challenge to any president who wanted to play up the Moscow menace. Under Reagan, Casey and Gates, the CIA worked tirelessly to undermine the Soviet Union – secretly supporting Poland’s opposition movement Solidarity, and engaging in acts of economic sabotage against the Soviet economy.

Indeed, according to Republican partisans who argued that President Reagan won the cold war (the “victory thesis”), the US launched its Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI or “Star Wars”) with the aim of forcing Moscow to respond, thus ruining the Soviet economy and bringing about the collapse of communism. SDI was a multi-billion-dollar space defence system designed to intercept and destroy incoming enemy missiles. According to the victory thesis, Gates’ exaggerated estimates of Soviet military might were not an instance of unthinking anti-communism but rather, a cunning ploy designed to persuade Congress to fund the Star Wars bluff.

Gates would go on to lead the CIA from 1991-93, the years when Senator Moynihan was campaigning for its abolition. The Senate confirmation hearings that preceded Gates’ tenure would be the occasion for some bitter denunciations from erstwhile colleagues. Gates later recalled that these charges of 1980s intelligence distortion “truly imperilled my confirmation”.

Jennifer Lynn Gaudemans, who in 1989 had left the CIA’s Office of Soviet Analysis (Sova) in a disillusioned state of mind, accused Gates of seeing Soviet conspiracies around every corner, and of “blatantly pandering to one ideological viewpoint”.

At the Senate hearings, Gaudemans testified that Sova analysts were deeply upset when Gates suppressed their findings that the Soviet Union was not, in fact, orchestrating mischief in Iran, Libya and Syria. She claimed he had denied them even the opportunity to publish dissenting footnotes. Sova division chiefs were, she said, routinely dismissed for being “too soft” on issues such as Soviet policy in the developing world, and arms control.

But while the agency’s analysts had problems with Gates, more powerful individuals – not least, the US secretary of state George Shultz – were prepared to listen. Sova-generated data and findings made their way on to the desks of US negotiators.

On November 18 1985, the eve of Reagan’s summit meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Geneva, the president and his negotiators received an intelligence assessment to the effect that, while Gorbachev was repairing the economic damage of the Brezhnev era, he would not meet his growth targets. Because of this and the acute nationalist discontent in Poland, CIA analysts told Reagan that Gorbachev was ready to deal with the US.

Through such insights, the agency played an important role in ending the “old” cold war, culminating in the dissolution of the Soviet Union on Christmas Day, 1991. But in the process, it also unwittingly contributed to the idea that the CIA might no longer be needed by the now-globally dominant US.

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US president Ronald Reagan sign the INF treaty in 1987. Photo: Twitter/@NATOpress

Intelligence to please

A decade later, the US’s confident post-cold war demeanour changed at a stroke when two hijacked planes flew into the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. And the CIA would be the fall guy.

The attack masterminded by Osama bin Laden glaringly exposed the CIA’s inability to uphold its founding mission of preventing another Pearl Harbour-style attack on the US. Under renewed pressure to justify its existence, the agency succumbed to the demands of the George W. Bush administration in the “war on terror” that arose from the ashes of 9/11.

As the US government desperately sought a rationale for invading Iraq, a deal was struck. Senior leaders of the agency may squirm at the charge, but the CIA supplied intelligence to please in exchange for the right to survive. Its leadership endorsed the mythical charge that Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). And when the ensuing war was a disaster, the CIA took the hit for having delivered that faulty intelligence.

Even in the early days of the Iraq war, however, the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 had already stripped the agency of its central role in evaluating intelligence, handing the job to a new and independent director of national intelligence, John Negroponte.

With the role of the CIA thus diminished, the US intelligence community became an unresolved puzzle. Demoralised CIA personnel threw up their hands in despair. CIA veteran Art Hulnick, now teaching intelligence studies at Boston University, was at a loss to explain to his students the new arrangements for analysing intelligence. Hulnick complained of an overreaction to what he termed the “threat du jour”.

Resources were being poured into the huge and unwieldy Department of Homeland Security; the Department of Defence was poaching assets from the CIA; and the agency had even lost its monopoly on preparing the president’s daily briefing (the first item on the president’s desk each morning, memorably described by Michelle Obama as the “death, destruction and horrible things book”.)

By the mid-2000s, intelligence work was being heavily outsourced to private businesses in accordance with the ideology of the George W Bush administration. Private recruiters such as Blackwater were appearing at the CIA HQ’s cafeteria in Langley, Virginia, hiring personnel with promises of big salary increases before sometimes subcontracting them back to the agency at inflated rates.

The CIA had never been a fainting lily but now, in the interests of its own survival, its directors agreed to engage in unsavoury practices including torture, illegal kidnapping, and execution-by-drone without trial. Waterboarding, whereby water is poured over a cloth on the victim’s face to produce a sensation of drowning, was a common practice in the agency’s “dark sites” – secret interrogation centres in Poland, Egypt and other countries around the world where kidnapped suspects were held.

Investigative journalism and persistently curious congressional committees are staples of American democracy, and these dubious practices were bound to come to light – with the aid of whistleblowers such as Edward Snowden. Snowden had worked for the CIA as a highly regarded computer security expert before moving to a private subcontractor engaged by the US foreign signals intelligence organisation, the National Security Agency (NSA).

In 2013, Snowden leaked numerous files to the Guardian and Washington Post before fleeing to Russia in order to evade rendition by the CIA. His revelations about US internal surveillance practices infuriated the guardians of America’s secrets, and fed the fears of those who deplored the use of dirty tricks abroad – and the development of a “secret state” at home. Snowden was accused of having revealed the identities of CIA personnel on active duty to the possible detriment of their safety – a form of treason (should it be proved) that was a deeply sensitive matter within CIA headquarters. It was fortunate for the agency, though, that the main thrust of Snowden’s revelations was about the NSA’s role in global surveillance.

Aerial view of CIA headquarters in Langley, Virgina. Photo: Carol M. Highsmith, Public Domain

An end to CIA ‘groupthink’

By 2007, while the Iraq war grew mired, the Bush administration was talking loudly about another familiar Middle Eastern foe: Iran.

In 1953, the CIA had conspired to overthrow the country’s democratically elected but mildly leftist government headed by Mohammad Mossadegh. There followed a period of despotic royal rule by the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. His overthrow in 1979 saw a period of priestly mullah rule and of alienation, mitigated only briefly by the Iran-Contra deal.

While the Iraq war continued, the US shared the concerns of Israel, its fellow nuclear power and Iran’s regional rival, that Tehran was developing the wherewithal to produce an atomic bomb. The hawks in the Bush administration issued strident warnings on the subject, but had to contend with a rising force in the intelligence community: the US National Intelligence Council (also known as “Nick”).

By this time, Nick was generating national security estimates that informed US security and foreign policy. While it traced its origins to pre-CIA days, once the agency was founded Nick became reliant on the data and analysis it provided – an arrangement that increasingly caused resentment on the part of state department officials.

After 2004, however, things changed: Nick could now call in other experts to help formulate its analyses and conclusions. And in 2007, Nick determined that Iran, contrary to claims made by the vociferous hawks in the Bush administration, was not developing nuclear weapons. This was an outstanding example of “intelligence to displease” – of speaking truth to power. The CIA was still supplying Nick with data and with some skilled analysts. But according to Thomas Fingar, who presided over Nick at the time of the 2007 Iran estimate, CIA “groupthink” no longer prevailed.

As Nick drew on a wider base of experts, it could not be accused, as the CIA had been, of gnawing at the same bone over and over again. Fingar’s colleagues backed his firm stance on Iran. Overcompliance was avoided in a manner that had not been possible in earlier cases such as the WMD scandal, when the CIA had enjoyed unalloyed supremacy.

Perhaps because of this, many CIA analysts appear to have been at ease with the new arrangement – a point stressed by Peter A Clement, who was in charge of Russian analysis at the point of transition to the new system. Elsewhere in the intelligence bureaucracy, however, there was discontent. The CIA’s counterterrorism unit’s absorption into a new National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) elicited this comment from former agency employee and sociologist Bridget Rose Nolan:

There is a general sense that NCTC was almost a knee-jerk reaction to 9/11 – a way for the government to treat the symptoms, but not the cause, of the perceived problem.

Compared with others within the agency, the CIA’s analysts could think themselves fortunate. Though some of them had transitioned to other units, their own team of Russian experts remained intact and unrivalled within the US intelligence community.

‘I’m a smart person’

Perhaps surprisingly, the CIA’s fortunes really began to revive with the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president on November 8, 2016.

At first glance, Trump’s election looked like more bad news for the CIA. In keeping with its mission, the agency was alert to any threat to American interests and security posed by the Kremlin. Trump, on the other hand, was keen to achieve an era of renewed Russian-American friendship – an ambition fuelled by his appetite for deal-making, his acquaintance with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, and perhaps even his ambitions to make a memorable contribution to world peace.

The indications were that Trump, once in office, would not wish to bolster the role played by the ever-suspicious CIA in Russo-American relations. Yet in the immediate aftermath of his election, the outgoing Barack Obama administration effected a policy shift which saw a significant strengthening of the CIA’s Russia capability. This shift arose from the specific circumstance of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election – but in the process, promised a wider and timely refocusing of the US intelligence effort.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters

In the words of the subsequent US Senate inquiry, a St Petersburg entity called the Internet Research Agency had “sought to influence the 2016 US presidential election by harming Hillary Clinton’s chances of success and supporting Donald Trump at the direction of the Kremlin”. It was an attempt to subvert American democracy, and the ease with which the Russians obtained Clinton’s confidential emails confirmed there was a wider threat to national security.

Trump gave the CIA little support during his presidency (2017-2021) and treated its personnel with contempt. He accused the agency of being elitist and of conspiring against him in the 2016 election. He dispensed with the daily intelligence briefing to which the CIA still contributed, telling Fox News: “You know, I’m, like, a smart person … I don’t have to be told the same thing and the same words every single day for the next eight years.”

But President Obama’s boost to Kremlinology has endured beyond the Trump presidency, and now looks fortuitous in light of current circumstances. Experts on the Kremlin need informers-in-place, and they are scarce assets.

We know, for example, that the CIA had to exfiltrate a key Kremlin mole in 2016, in case they were identified as the source of the agency’s information on Russian smear tactics against Hillary Clinton. The mole had alerted the agency that in June 2016, Russian cyberwarfare personnel had released thousands of hacked emails from Clinton’s Democratic campaign and from the computers of the Democratic National Committee. Time will tell what else this mole was telling the CIA about Kremlin tactics and intentions, up until their hasty departure from Russia.

A formidable Kremlinologist

In 2021, newly elected US president Joe Biden nominated his longstanding friend William J. Burns as the CIA’s new director. Unlike some of his recent predecessors, Burns was no pushover.

When Biden declared his intention of continuing the Trump policy of withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan, Burns made it known he was unhappy with the intelligence implications. The Taliban who took over in the wake of American withdrawal had a history of shielding terrorists. So when the CIA pinpointed the location in Kabul of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, leading to his assassination by a drone-dispatched Stinger missile on July 31 2022, the event satisfied both men – even if it smacked of gunslinger diplomacy.

But the new CIA director also brings more subtle skills to the role. Crucially, Burns has many years’ experience of Russo-American relations, making him exceptionally well qualified to help shape America’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Certainly, he is a very different character from Casey, his predecessor from the Reagan era. Burns is a formidable Kremlinologist with an impressive negotiating pedigree. His father, Major-General William F Burns, engaged in arms control negotiations and, in the final year of the Reagan administration, was director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.

The younger William Burns served in the Moscow embassy in the 1990s and as US ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008, describing it as his “dream job”. During that period of engagement with Moscow, he repeatedly warned that Nato expansion was anathema to Putin, a leader who back then appeared potentially open to an accommodation with the US.

Burns was capable of empathising with Moscow while appreciating its threat to mankind. He was a devotee of behind-the-scenes diplomacy well before he became CIA director (the title of his 2021 autobiographical study of modern US diplomacy is The Back Channel). According to the Hoar Amendment adopted by the US Senate in 1893, secret agents are not supposed to engage in official diplomacy, but it is a rule that has been much honoured in the breach. As ambassador to Russia, Burns reached agreement with the Kremlin on how to inhibit nuclear-weapon proliferation – but he was under no illusions about Putin.

Burns had accompanied Biden, then the US vice-president, on a mission to Moscow to discuss instability in Libya at the time of the Arab Spring in 2011. In his memoir, Burns wrote that Russia’s then-president, Dmitri Medvedev, was a reasonable man who cared about humanitarian issues and admired President Obama. In contrast, Putin was “dyspeptic about American policy in the Middle East” – especially when it aimed at toppling autocrats.

In November 2021, Burns led a discreet delegation to Moscow that signalled, according to the New York Times, “heightened engagement between two global adversaries”. On this occasion, he met Putin’s adviser Nikolai Patrushev. Their conversation ranged over nuclear disarmament, cyberspace rivalry, Russians’ hacking activities and climate policy, as well as problems of mutual interest affecting Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan.

Burns’ efforts did not, however, signify CIA complacency over Russian intentions regarding Ukraine. Together with British intelligence (but meeting with incredulity elsewhere in Europe, except for Scandinavia), the agency’s Kremlinologists were convinced that Putin intended to invade Russia’s neighbour.

Banned by Putin

Burns is under no illusion about the threat posed by the Russian leader. Having previously likened him to the Romanov czars, he has warned that Putin may resort to using nuclear weapons. When Russia’s president retaliated against western sanctions by issuing travel bans on selected individuals, Burns was on his list.

From Putin’s perspective, the US and its CIA preach civilised values but do not observe them. He wrote in 2012 that they had spent decades upholding dictatorships in Latin America, regimes that routinely tortured to death thousands of their own citizens. To Putin, it was all part of a pattern:

“The development of the American continent began with large-scale ethnic cleansing that has no equal in the history of mankind. The indigenous people were destroyed. After that [came] slavery … That remains until now in the souls and hearts of the people.”

The CIA is doubtless operating within Russia, but autocracies are difficult to penetrate – and the agency does not have a great record of success in this regard. The extent of its covert actions will likely also be limited because the US remains reluctant to risk being seen as directly involved in the conflict.

While US armed forces are responsible for passing on military intelligence such as that which enabled the sinking of Russia’s flagship the Moskva, the New York Times reported in June 2022 that CIA personnel were “directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the US is sharing with Ukrainian forces”. Though few other concrete details have emerged, the report stated that the CIA’s presence “hints at the scale of the secretive effort to assist Ukraine”.

If precedents are a guide, the CIA will be engaged in intelligence gathering and dissemination as well as “black” propaganda – psychological warfare aimed at Russians, Belarusians, Ukrainians and the wider world. Through undeclared strategies including the secret funding of both Ukrainian and international front organisations, it will attempt to bend world opinion to favour the Ukrainian cause and isolate the Russians.

But there is also no reason why Burns cannot revive back channel diplomacy, should the opportunity arise. Whether or not undertaken by the CIA, diplomatic engagement with Russia depends on good intelligence on both sides. It is reliant on Putin getting reliable analysis from his own people, and being prepared to act in light of that analysis.

In early February 2022, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) collected opinion data in Ukraine which found that 40% of those polled would not fight to defend their country. Peter Clement, who worked for the CIA until 2017, observed to me that Putin and his advisers should have noted this meant that 60% were either willing to fight or undecided. The Russian leadership paid insufficient heed to such analysis.

People walk past tents on their way to board a train after crossing the border from Ukraine to Poland, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at the border checkpoint in Medyka, Poland, March 9, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Fabrizio Bensch/File Photo

The future of the CIA

How strong is the CIA’s team of Russian analysts today? Hundreds of analysts were recruited after 9/11, largely in response to Muslim radicalism – Hulnick’s “threat du jour”. Yet the agency’s Russian affairs division suffered a relative setback.

It was obliged to ask for volunteers among its analysts to quit Kremlinology and work instead on counterterrorism. According to a senior official who oversaw these sensitive changes, an effort was made to hang on to linguistic and area specialists, but the division had to give up gifted individuals who had transferable skills.

A reorganisation of the CIA in 2015 led to the formation of a Directorate for Digital Innovation, which gave the agency potentially greater capability of assessing Moscow’s disinformation via social media. This was on the initiative of John Brennan, President Obama’s admired pick to lead the CIA from 2013 to 2017. But for civil liberties reasons, the 1947 National Security Act which established the CIA also banned the agency from operating domestically. So it is still not capable of tracking Moscow’s use of US-based, but Russian-controlled, digital media sources in stirring up divisions in American society.

Nonetheless, the standing of the agency’s Kremlinologists received a boost under Obama – and have again under Biden. Meanwhile, the “distractions” of recent decades such as the debate over torture are receding. We still get periodic reminders of CIA ruthlessness, such as the recent assassination without trial of al-Qaeda’s al-Zawahri. But the leadership of CIA directors Brennan and Burns has set the agency on a path that bodes well for its role in seeking a resolution to the current Ukraine crisis.

The CIA, being the instrument of a democracy, is a broad church and there will always be conflicting voices. One senior source tells me the agency opposed the expansion of Nato that Moscow finds so abhorrent. Another, a veteran of Reagan’s Office of Soviet Analysis, insists its Kremlinologists are too apolitical for that kind of judgement to be upheld – and does not believe today’s analysts will be able to contribute to intelligence successes such as those achieved during the 1980s cold war era.

But these competing views reflect a healthy struggle within the CIA to get at the truth. While the agency still has vocal critics and always will do, no one is calling for its dissolution today.

Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones, Professor Emeritus of American History, University of Edinburgh.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Germany apologizes 50 years after the Munich Olympics massacre

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Fifty years later, there are still many unanswered questions about the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre. There is also much pain among the relatives of the victims, who continue to wonder how so many errors could have occurred in the attempt to rescue the 11 Olympic athletes that a Palestinian terrorist group named Black September took hostage and ended up killing.

One chapter is now closed after Germany acknowledged its responsibilities as the host of those “Cheerful Games” that ended in the worst tragedy in Olympic history. For the first time, German authorities have apologized and recognized their failures.

“I am ashamed,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in front of a grieving Israeli President Isaac Herzog during the commemoration event in Munich. “As head of state of this country and on behalf of the Federal Republic of Germany, I ask your forgiveness for failing to protect Israeli athletes and for the subsequent failure to seek explanations,” he added, addressing relatives present at the event.

Some 70 family members finally showed up at Fürstenfeldbruck air base, on the outskirts of Munich and the scene of the bloodbath that resulted from a disastrous police operation to try to rescue the hostages. “I am glad that the authorities have finally recognized their responsibility and openly talked about the mistakes. It has been a great relief,” Shlomit Romano, daughter of weightlifter Yossef Romano, told public television.

Portraits of the victims during the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Munich massacre, this Monday at Fürstenfeldbruck airbase.Portraits of the victims during the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Munich massacre, this Monday at Fürstenfeldbruck airbase.THOMAS KIENZLE (AFP)

After extensive discussions – and under the threat of a boycott by relatives of the victims – an agreement was reached last week. Berlin will pay €28 million (around €1.2 million for each of the 23 families entitled to compensation) for its responsibility in the attack. For the first time, the German state has acknowledged that serious mistakes were made that led to the death of the 11 Israeli athletes.

The German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, assured that Germany has taken too long to recognize its responsibility and to act accordingly. It is “shameful,” he admitted, that five decades had to pass to reach a compensation agreement with the families. “For too long, we have not wanted to recognize that we also have a share of responsibility. Our task was to ensure the safety of Israeli athletes,” he added.

Herzog lamented that for years “it seemed like one simple truth had been forgotten: this was not a uniquely Jewish and Israeli tragedy – this was a global tragedy! A tragedy that must be recalled and commemorated at every Olympic Games; a tragedy whose lessons must be taught, from generation to generation.”

“It desecrated the unifying and cohesive sanctity of the Olympics, the ultimate symbol of sports, and smeared its flag with blood. The Olympic flag, with its five rings, would never again be what it was before,” said Herzog, who on Tuesday was scheduled to visit the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp, liberated by his father Jaim in 1945 with the British army, which then administered Palestine.

The Israeli delegation to the Munich Olympics, upon returning to their country.The Israeli delegation to the Munich Olympics, upon returning to their country.

Munich 72 was the great opportunity for Germany to present itself to the world as a modern, friendly and cosmopolitan country, and to erase from the collective imagination the memories of the last Olympic Games that Berlin had organized in the middle of the Nazi regime. The atmosphere was jovial and relaxed, so much so that the Bavarian police were dressed in plainclothes and unarmed. Munich was for 10 days a kind of festival of concord, which also experienced memorable athletic feats, such as the seven gold medals won by the American (and Jewish) swimmer Mark Spitz.

A few hours after that feat, tragedy struck. In the early hours of September 5, 1972, a commando from the Palestinian terrorist group Black September broke into an apartment occupied by the Israeli team in the Olympic village. Eight men who jumped over a fence in the compound, dressed in tracksuits and hiding their weapons in sports bags. They killed a coach and an athlete and took nine other team members hostage, demanding the release of 234 Palestinian prisoners, as well as the leaders of the far-left German terrorist group Red Army Faction (RAF), Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof.

Beginner’s mistakes

The response by the Police of the Federal Republic – the reunification of the two Germanys would not take place until 1990 – consisted of a rescue operation plagued by incompetence and beginner’s errors in which the nine Israeli hostages, an agent and five of the eight kidnappers ended up dead. Israel offered to send a specialized unit, but the German government rejected it. The Army, which had trained snipers, did not participate in the operation because the German Constitution prohibited its intervention in peacetime.

The Bavarian Police were neither well equipped nor adequately trained to deal with a hostage situation. They made a disastrous attempt to break into the Olympic village apartment that had to be aborted because the kidnappers realized their intentions. The Munich attack was the first to be covered live by the media and the assailants could see the officers, dressed in brightly colored tracksuits, approaching their door on their TV screens.

German policemen, in the Munich building where the Israeli athletes were held captive.German policemen, in the Munich building where the Israeli athletes were held captive.Bettmann (Bettmann Archive)

The calamitous German police operation, which ended with a shootout at the airport, drew criticism around the world and strained diplomatic relations with Israel, where it caused a shock that still lingers half a century later. The following day, on September 6, a memorial was held for the victims in which the then president of the International Olympic Committee, Avery Brundage, said that the Games must go on and not yield to terror.

The relatives of the victims have been asking since then for an official apology from Germany, reasonable compensation and the declassification of documents about the tragedy. They achieved their first victory two decades ago, when as a gesture of goodwill – while making it clear that it was not an admission of responsibility – German authorities agreed to pay six million marks. The figure did not go unnoticed in Israel, coinciding with the number of Jews murdered by Nazi Germany and its allies during the Holocaust. The families then asked to be paid in dollars and received $90,000 each, while Israeli and German lawyers pocketed $2 million, as the Israeli daily Haaretz reported.

Commission of historians

The new agreement with the victims includes the release of documents and the creation of a commission of German and Israeli historians that will draft a report on the greatest tragedy in Olympic history.

During the negotiations, the German government had offered the victims €10 million, minus the €4.6 million it had already paid in 1972 and 2002. Some considered it “an insult” and a “terrible joke,” including Ankie Spitzer, widow of André Spitzer, the fencing coach of the Israeli team, who acts as spokesperson for the families.

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Chancellor Scholz promotes militarisation of Europe under German leadership in Prague speech

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Germany is deliberately intensifying the war in Ukraine in order to weld Europe together under its hegemony and militarise the continent so it can become a world power. This was the central message contained in the keynote speech by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Charles University in Prague on Monday.

Against the backdrop of the venerable Czech university founded in 1348, Scholz wasted little time with the usual phrases about peace, freedom and democracy that the European Union supposedly embodies. He then got to the point of his remarks.

“In recent years, many have rightly called for a stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union,” he said. “For a Union that knows its place in the history and geography of the continent and acts strongly and united in the world. The historic decisions of the past few months have brought us closer to this goal.”

By “historic decisions,” Scholz meant the “determination and speed” with which the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and exacerbated the war in Ukraine through NATO’s intervention. He did not even hint at the suggestion that the German government or the EU might be interested in an early ceasefire or a negotiated solution to the conflict.

Instead, he boasted of the economic, financial, political and, above all, military support—“here Germany has fundamentally changed course in recent months”—being provided to Ukraine. “We will maintain this support, reliably and above all: for as long as necessary!”

In the coming weeks and months, Ukraine will receive from Germany “new, state-of-the-art weapons—air defense and radar systems, for example, or reconnaissance drones,” stated the chancellor. The last package of arms supplies alone had a value of over €600 million. “Our goal is a modern Ukrainian armed forces that can permanently defend their country,” he declared. He could imagine that “Germany would take special responsibility for building Ukrainian artillery and air defense.”

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) promised Ukraine on Sunday that she would continue to indefinitely support Ukraine with heavy weaponry. One must “expect that this war could last for years to come,” she told the Bild am Sonntag. Like Scholz, Baerbock explicitly declared her support for the goal of recapturing the Crimean peninsula by military force and thereby inflict a total military defeat on Russia, a nuclear-armed power.

The German government already supported the right-wing coup in Ukraine in 2014, which brought a pro-Western puppet regime to power and sowed the seeds for the current war. But it hesitated for a long time to completely break off economic relations with Russia, which had been supplying Germany with cheap and secure energy since Soviet times.

Despite significant pressure, Chancellor Angela Merkel refused throughout her time in office to stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would have doubled the capacity of the existing pipeline. The Scholz government only took this step after the outbreak of the war.  Even then, his government came under sustained fire for allegedly acting too hesitantly and delaying promised arms deliveries.

This has changed radically. After the United States, Germany is the driving force in the proxy war with Russia. In order to dismember Russia and seize control of its rich natural resources, the German government is prepared to let its own population freeze and inflation rise uninterruptedly,  and is risking a world war fought with nuclear weapons.

Already three days after the outbreak of war, Scholz announced in the Bundestag (parliament) a “new epoch,” massive arms deliveries to Ukraine and a tripling of the defence budget in order to make Germany the leading military power in Europe once again. His Prague speech was directly linked to his “new epoch” speech. The demand for a “geopolitical Europe capable of world politics” that “can assert its values and interests worldwide” is a constant theme throughout the one-hour text.

“In a world of 8, probably 10 billion people in the future, every single one of our European nation states is far too small to assert its interests and values alone. This makes a united European Union all the more important for us,” Scholz stressed.

He was careful not to say a critical word about the US and praised the “indispensable value of the transatlantic partnership.” Nevertheless, he made it clear that Germany’s geopolitical ambitions are also directed against the US.

It is “fortunate for all of us” that “today, with President Biden, a convinced transatlanticist is sitting in the White House,” he said. But in spite of everything Biden has done for the partnership, “we know at the same time that Washington’s view is more focused on competition with China and the Asia-Pacific region. This will also apply to future American governments—perhaps even more.”

According to Scholz, in the multi-polar world of the 21st century, “it is therefore not enough to cultivate existing partnerships only as valuable as they are. We will invest in new partnerships—in Asia, Africa and Latin America.” The united Europe also has to “emphasise its weight even more vis-à-vis China.”

In order to strengthen the EU accordingly, Scholz advocates its further expansion to the east: “The fact that the EU continues to grow to the east is a win-win situation for all of us!” he declared. In addition to the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova, he also wants to “prospectively” welcome Georgia into the EU. The EU would thus grow from the current 27 to up to 36 members.

Scholz also hopes that this will strengthen Germany’s position in Europe. “Germany, as a country in the middle of the continent, will do everything in its power to bring East and West, North and South together in Europe,” he said.

In order to make the EU more effective and to strengthen Germany’s leadership role, Scholz intends to centralise its institutions and largely disempower smaller members. In the Council of the EU, in which the heads of government or the ministers responsible for the various countries are represented, the unanimity principle is to be replaced by the majority principle, so that individual members can no longer veto proposals. 

Scholz wants to reduce the European Parliament’s size, “in compliance with the democratic principle that every vote should have approximately the same weight.” So far, smaller countries have been favoured because they have more deputies per head of population than other states.

With an ambitious technological and economic development programme, Europe should “fight back to the top of the world” and join the trade war against China and the US. Scholz cited the production of chips and semiconductors, the mobility of the future and the “ecological and digital transformation of our economy” as central fields. 

Scholz also plans to include space: “Independent access to space, modern satellites and megaconstellations—this is not only crucial for our security, but also for environmental protection, agriculture and, last but not least, for digitalisation.”

To realise these plans, Scholz intends to arm the EU as a military world power under German leadership so it is capable of waging war around the globe.

“The past uncoordinated shrinking of European armies and defence budgets should now be followed by a coordinated growth of European capabilities,” he said.

In addition to joint arms projects, the unification of European defence structures and a well-equipped EU military headquarters, he intends to accelerate decision-making processes and form “coalitions of the determined” from individual member states for military operations.

Germany will also “ensure that the planned EU Rapid Reaction Force is operational in 2025—and then also provide its core,” Scholz promised. It was decided that Germany would support Lithuania with a rapidly deployable brigade and Slovakia in air defense, as well as compensate the Czech Republic and other countries for the delivery of Soviet tanks to Ukraine with tanks of German design.

Europe needs to catch up considerably in order to counter threats from the air and from space, he continued. Therefore, Germany will invest very significantly in an air defense system and design it in such a way that European neighbours can also participate. A commonly built air defense system in Europe is “a safety asset for the whole of Europe,” he stated.

The fact that the German government bases its European programme on the prospect of a long war against Russia, which costs hundreds of lives every day in Ukraine, ruins the living standards of the European working class and threatens to escalate into a nuclear war, shows its reactionary character. The federal government is thus returning to the worst traditions of German imperialism and is supported by all parties represented in the Bundestag.

At the end of the 19th century, capitalist Germany developed the most advanced industry in Europe, but at a time when the world was already divided among its capitalist rivals. With the First World War, it tried to change that by redividing the world. The control of Eastern Europe—or “Central Europe” (Mitteleuropa) as it was then called—including Ukraine was one of the central goals of the German war.

After the defeat in World War I, Hitler made another attempt to redivide the world in the interests of German imperialism 20 years later. “To convert united Germany into a base for European domination; to convert united Europe into a base for the struggle for world domination, consequently for confining, weakening, and reducing America—this task remains unchanged for Hitler,” wrote Leon Trotsky in December 1939, shortly after the outbreak of the Second World War.

Scholz’s European strategy follows the same trajectory. His attempt to subordinate the EU to German interests and to transform it into a basis for the struggle for world domination will inevitably lead to a catastrophe. It will not only lead to violent conflicts between the European powers, but will also intensify the class struggle.

This contains the key to the development of a response to the danger of war. The working class must combine the struggle to defend its social achievements and democratic rights with the struggle against war and militarism. It must reject the European Union, an instrument of the European imperialist powers, and take up the fight for the United Socialist States of Europe—for a united socialist Europe in which social interests dominate, not the profit interests of the capitalists.

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Russia has cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely. Here’s what you need to know

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Russia’s move to indefinitely suspend gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream 1 is seen as a further escalation of its policy to inflict economic pain to Germany.

Europe has been thrown into its biggest energy crisis in decades with natural gas supplies from Russia becoming volatile and unpredictable even before the invasion of Ukraine began. Now, those supplies have come to a complete halt.

Russia claims punitive economic sanctions imposed on it by the West are responsible for the indefinite halt to gas supplies via Europe’s main pipeline.

“Problems in pumping arose because of the sanctions imposed against our country and against a number of companies by Western states, including Germany and the U.K.,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, according to Russian state news agency Interfax.

Asked whether pumping gas via Nord Stream 1 was completely dependent on the sanctions and that supplies would resume if these were lifted or relaxed, Peskov replied, “Of course. The very sanctions that prevent the maintenance of units, which prevent them from moving without appropriate legal guarantees, which prevent these legal guarantees from being given, and so on.”

“It is precisely these sanctions that the Western states have introduced that have brought the situation to what we see now,” Peskov added.

Coming directly from the Kremlin, such comments represent the clearest indication yet that Russia is seeking to pressure Europe to lift the economic measures, brought on to punish Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, in order for the taps to be turned back on ahead of winter.

European lawmakers have repeatedly accused Russia, traditionally its largest energy supplier, of weaponizing energy exports in an attempt to drive up commodity prices and sow uncertainty across the 27-nation bloc. Moscow denies using energy as a weapon.

EU energy chief says Russia is using natural gas as a weapon

Russia’s state-owned energy giant, Gazprom, halted all exports via Nord Stream 1 from Aug. 31, citing maintenance work on its only remaining compressor.

However, while flows were due to resume after three days, Gazprom on Friday cited an oil leak for the indefinite shutdown of the pipeline. The shock announcement came hot on the heels of a joint statement from the G-7 economic powers backing a proposal to put a price-capping mechanism on Russian oil.

In what energy analysts see as an escalation of Russia’s bid to inflict economic pain on the region, the Kremlin has since said that the resumption of gas supplies to Europe is completely dependent on Europe lifting its economic sanctions against Moscow.

The halt to supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which connects Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, prompted European gas prices to jump Monday, with many fearful that parts of Europe could be forced to ration energy through the winter. It has also exacerbated the risk of a recession in the region. 

Meanwhile, Gazprom’s deputy CEO, Vitaly Markelov, told Reuters on Tuesday that gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not continue until Germany’s Siemens Energy repairs faulty equipment.

Siemens Energy was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Tuesday.

However, the company told Reuters that it’s not currently commissioned by Gazprom to do maintenance work on the turbine with the suspected oil leak, but said it remains on standby to do so.

Siemens Energy added that it “cannot comprehend this new representation based on the information provided to us over the weekend.”

Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Vitaly Markelov told Reuters on Tuesday that gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not continue until Germany’s Siemens Energy repairs faulty equipment

Mark Dixon, founder of the Moral Rating Agency, a research organization focused on foreign firms in Russia, said Gazprom blaming Siemens Energy for the gas supply cut was “yet another example of a state lie from the Russian Federation.”

“Russia lied its way into the invasion and has lied ever since,” Dixon said. “Gazprom is Russia, make no mistake. It has no choice but to lie in chorus with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”

Russia has drastically reduced gas supplies to Europe in recent months, with flows via the pipeline operating at just 20% of the agreed-upon volume before the indefinite suspension.

“Russia’s move to again cut gas supply to the EU just as the region scrambles to fill its inventories ahead of winter is a further escalation of its policy of the past months to inflict economic pain through repeated supply cuts to Germany, the EU’s biggest economy and gas consumer,” analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a research note.

“Sources in Berlin say they are now making all winter energy plans on the assumption of zero supply from Russia,” they added. “That means there will now also be a focus on central and southern Europe, which still receives Russian gas including through pipeline transit of Ukraine and Turkey.”

European policymakers are currently racing to secure gas supplies in underground facilities in order to have enough fuel to keep homes warm during the colder months.

Energy analysts say Russia’s latest move to suspend gas flows via Europe’s major supply route could exacerbate what was already likely to be an extremely challenging winter period.

Uniper CEO says the worst is still to come after Russia halts gas flows to Europe

“The European energy sector continues to be shocked by price volatility and uncertainty over energy balances for the coming winter,” analysts at consultancy Rystad Energy said in a research note, noting that power spot prices across Western Europe have climbed to “unparalleled levels.”

“This latest move has significantly increased the risk that Europe may not get further gas flows through Nord Stream 1 for the whole winter,” they added.

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Has the Ukraine War Kicked off the 4th Modern Exodus of Jews from Russia?

By Stephen Hall, University of Bath | –

It’s not the first time that Jews have felt it necessary to flee Russia, but the invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the fourth wave of exiles in the past hundred years.

Since Vladimir Putin became president for the second time in 2012, the authorities have become increasingly repressive towards minorities, as well as cracking down on freedom of speech and getting rid of any opposition figures. But it was the 2022 invasion of Ukraine that was the final straw for many Jewish people.

With anti-Jewish crackdowns between 1880 and 1906, about 2 million people left the Russian empire for the US; many were Jews. From 1970-88 around 291,000 Jews left the Soviet Union and in the 1990s a further 128,000 left for Germany. The new Jewish exodus has been sudden, and many are still trying to leave. Out of 165,000 Jews in Russia at the beginning of the war, reports suggest that 20,500 have left in the past six months.

Since the war began in February 2022, the authorities have doubled down on repression, changing it from a targeted practice to mass repression. An example is the arrest of children for placing flowers outside the Ukrainian embassy in Moscow in March. This is something that the Russian authorities have not done before. At the same time, the economy appears to be spiralling beyond the control of the authorities.

Historically, when economies tank, governments often look for minorities to blame – and Russian Jews know this could be the case again.

Data from the International Monetary Fund in early August 2022 suggested that the Russian economy would only contract by 6% in 2022, rather than the predicted 8.5%. Although the economy has not collapsed – as predicted by many western specialists – businesses are leaving or have curtailed operations in Russia, and sanctions are beginning to cripple the economy.

Although Russia’s Jewish population is very small at 165,000, compared to the whole Russian population (145.2 million), it makes up a disproportionate number of the Russian middle class. This group has been in decline for a while, but the possibility of mass conscription, a failing economy and increased restrictions over the few independent areas of life have led to about 200,000 middle-class Russians leaving during the Ukraine war for Georgia, Turkey, Armenia and beyond.

Significantly, Moscow’s chief rabbi, Pinchas Goldschmidt, left Russia in July after the authorities put pressure on him to support the war in Ukraine. In late July, the ministry of justice of the Russian Federation announced it would shut down the Moscow office of the Jewish Agency, which organises migration to Israel, after Israeli prime minster, Yair Lapid, condemned the war.

Both of these actions put many Russian Jews on high alert. In an interview after he left Russia, Goldschmidt said that the sanctions and pressure to support the war changed Russia from a modern country back to one echoing the Soviet Union.

History of Jewish repression

Sadly, antisemitism has a long and painful history in Russia. The expansion of Muscovy – a name given to combine the Grand Duchy of Moscow (1263-1547) and the Tsardom of Russia (1547-1721) – to the east and west, culminating in the pronouncement of the Russian empire in 1721, saw Russia incorporate a large Jewish population.

The partitions of Poland between 1772 and 1795 and victory over the Ottomans in the 17th century gave Russia a large Jewish minority. The Pale of Settlement, an area where Jews were forced to live, was created in 1791 to keep most Jews in the newly annexed territories and away from inner Russia.

Throughout the period of the Russian empire (1721-1917) the Jewish population experienced numerous pogroms (organised massacres). In the late Tsarist period (1905-1917), famine and state support of nationalist groups, such as the Black Hundredsresulted in the need to locate an “enemy” to blame for Russia’s woes. The Jews served this purpose and pogroms, like the one in Kishinev in 1903 (present day Chișinău, capital of Moldova) were widespread across the empire.

The Tsarist regime was imbued with a deep antisemitism, epitomised by the deep fake publication the Elders of Zion. This document was created by the Tsarist secret police – Okhrana – to justify this antisemitism and create the conspiracy that the Jews were trying to control the world.

This antisemitism continued into the Soviet Union, which was anything but the egalitarian society it claimed to be. Jewish schools and cultural institutions were closed, Jewish leaders murdered and antisemitic plots were created by the Soviet system to justify crackdowns. The 1953 doctors plot, where Jewish doctors were accused of murdering Stalin is the most famous example of these fake creations.

This persecution, combined with Israel being a key ally of the US in the cold war, put Jews in a difficult position. Facing discrimination at school and in the workplace many Russian Jews chose to leave the Soviet Union. This led to the term refusenik, where many Soviet Jews had “refused” stamped in their visa applications.

Claims circulated that Soviet Jews were a fifth column, a set of organisations aiming to undermine the national interest, and in cahoots with the US. This led to further persecution, more Soviet Jews fleeing and further accusations.

Soviet similarities

While Russia is not the Soviet Union, the Putinist system is increasingly reactionary and autocratic – some would say fascist. Autocracies generally need an enemy to put the public on their side and show that they are fighting instability and protecting the population.

The phrase came up recently, during a state-sponsored rally in the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow in March 2022, when Putin spoke about a fifth column and national traitors. Authoritarian leaders often like to cite an internal enemy as well as an external enemy.

The fear of Russian history repeating itself doesn’t go away. Past and present Russian regimes have always blamed Jews for their problems. Many Russian Jews are not waiting around to find out if Russia is about to take this dark path, again.

Stephen Hall, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Politics, International Relations and Russia, University of Bath

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Russia Shuts Down Nord Stream Pipeline to Europe

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By Vladimir Soldatkin

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (Reuters)—Russia’s biggest natural gas pipeline to Europe will not resume pumping until Siemens Energy repairs faulty equipment, Gazprom’s Deputy Chief Executive Vitaly Markelov told Reuters on Tuesday.

Europe is facing its worst gas supply crisis ever, with energy prices soaring and German importers even discussing possible rationing in the European Union’s biggest economy after Russia reduced flows westwards.

Gazprom on Friday said the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Europe’s major supply route, would remain shut as a turbine at a compressor station had an engine oil leak, sending wholesale gas prices soaring.

When asked when Nord Stream 1 would start pumping gas again, Markelov told Reuters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian Pacific port of Vladivostok: “You should ask Siemens. They have to repair equipment first.”

Siemens Energy said it was not currently commissioned by Gazprom to do maintenance work on the turbine with the suspected engine oil leak, but was on standby.

The company, headquartered in Munich, Germany, said on Tuesday that it did not comprehend Gazprom’s presentation of the situation.

It said an engine oil leak at the last remaining turbine in operation at the Portovaya compressor station did not constitute a reason to keep the pipeline closed.

“We cannot comprehend this new representation based on the information provided to us over the weekend,” Siemens Energy said in a written statement.

“Our assessment is that the finding communicated to us does not represent a technical reason for stopping operation. Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site,” it added.

ENERGY WAR?

The Kremlin blames the energy crisis on sanctions imposed on Russia by the West over what President Vladimir Putin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine. European leaders say Moscow is using energy to blackmail the EU.

Nord Stream 1, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, is by far the biggest Russian gas pipeline to Europe, carrying up to 59.2 billion cubic metres of gas per year.

Once considered a symbol of the cooperation between one of the world’s biggest energy powers and the world’s fourth largest economy, Nord Stream has now become the subject of recriminations between Berlin and Moscow.

Germany, the biggest European purchaser of Russian energy, says Russia is no longer a reliable supplier. EU politicians say Putin is using his clout as the head of one of the world’s biggest energy powers to stoke discord in Europe over the conflict in Ukraine.

Germany dismisses Gazprom’s explanations about turbine issues as a pretext.

But the Kremlin says that the West triggered the energy crisis by imposing the most severe sanctions in modern history, a step Putin says is akin to a declaration of economic war.

The Kremlin also warned that Russia would retaliate over a G7 proposal to impose a price cap on Russian oil, a step that is unlikely to hurt Russia unless China and India were to follow suit.

Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Tuesday in Vladivostok that Russia will respond to the price cap by shipping more oil to Asia. He said Russia and its partners were considering setting up an insurer to facilitate the oil trade.

(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Jan Harvey)

Published under: Energy, Russia

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Putin appears to limp as he observes Russia’s major Vostok war games

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Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to walk with a limp as he attended Russia’s major Vostok war games on Tuesday, raising fresh doubts over his health, Daily Mail reported.

The Russian leader, 69, observed the major military exercises from inside a command post while sitting next to his defence minister Sergei Shoigu who is said to have been ‘sidelined’ by Putin due to Russia’s heavy losses in Ukraine.

As Putin arrived at the command post at the Sergeyevsky training range in Russia’s Far East, he appeared to be walking with a limp when he crossed the room to watch the war games, Daily Mail reported.

Video shows Putin walking stiffly across the room and he appears to hesitate before stepping down to reach a set of chairs.

It comes just a day after Putin’s legs were seen twitching uncontrollably while giving a rambling speech in front of young Russians, Daily Mail reported.

Questions about Putin’s health have been circulating for some time in Russia with some suggesting he has cancer or Parkinson’s and he has regularly disappeared for days at a time amid claims he is undergoing surgery.

The rumours gained such traction that the Kremlin was forced to go on record and deny them, with Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisting the Russian leader was in ‘excellent health’ and any rumour to the contrary was ‘complete nonsense’.

In recent months, he has been seen hobbling off a plane in Iran with a limp arm and twisting his foot in a meeting with Belarus dictator Lukashenko in May.

And this week, Putin was seen speaking to schoolchildren while twitching his legs and firmly gripping an armrest.

Shaking is one of the main symptoms of Parkinson’s – a condition that Hitler is thought to have suffered from towards the end of the Second World War, Daily Mail reported.

On Tuesday, he was seen limping across the room and looking ill at ease as he stepped down to sit down in a chair.

–IANS

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(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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Russia halts gas flows to Europe as Ukraine war intensifies

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(CN) — Moscow is upping the stakes in the Ukraine war by indefinitely closing off the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline into Germany, a move that puts even more economic and political pressure on the European Union, where gas prices are soaring.

On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Western sanctions had hindered work to repair the pipeline, which is a principal artery for Russian gas, and that forced its closure. The EU is now bracing for a winter of possible gas rationing and deep economic turmoil.

“Western sanctions have rendered the maintenance system for gas pumping units inoperable, the Nord Stream turbine is not being repaired,” Peskov said.

European leaders accuse Russia of weaponizing its gas supplies and seeking to “blackmail” them into lifting sanctions, which the EU is refusing to do as long as Moscow doesn’t retreat from Ukraine. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU got about 40% of its gas from Russia and some EU countries rely almost exclusively on Russia for gas.

Although the EU was a major market for Russia, the global surge in energy prices has allowed Russia to continue bringing in massive profits despite Western sanctions as it sells its gas and oil to India, China and other developing nations that have refused to condemn Russia for its invasion and chosen not to impose sanctions.

Russia’s retaliatory move over Nord Stream came shortly after the Group of Seven nations on Friday proposed capping the price for Russian crude oil.

In the EU, gas prices are 10 times higher than average and surged by more than 33% on Monday following the Nord Stream announcement.

The weekend also saw large demonstrations in several European capitals where protesters expressed anger over soaring prices. Protests and frustration over inflation are growing, posing a major challenge to European leaders, the majority of whom remain steadfast in their commitment to help Ukraine win.

As the economic war between Russia and the West intensifies, the fighting in Ukraine is getting fiercer too and seeing increased involvement by the United States and its NATO allies on behalf of Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, is turning to its allies and has allegedly begun buying huge stockpiles of munitions from North Korea and war drones from Iran.

In recent days, a number of reports indicate that NATO is becoming more brazen in its support for Ukraine, which has launched a critical counteroffensive against Russian forces in a bid to recapture Black Sea territories it’s lost.

The Hill reported over the weekend that the U.S. has begun arming Ukraine “with weapons that can do serious damage to Russian forces, and, unlike early in the war, U.S. officials don’t appear worried about Moscow’s reaction.”

The Pentagon is sending Ukraine ScanEagle surveillance drones, heavily armored MaxxPro mine-resistant vehicles and guided anti-tank missile systems, the article said. The U.S. is also providing AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles and more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. In addition, multiple reports indicate that Ukraine may soon receive Excalibur precision-guided artillery munitions, weapons that can travel up to about 43 miles.

William Taylor, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told The Hill that U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration have “recognized that they can provide larger, more capable, longer-distance, heavier weapons to the Ukrainians and the Russians have not reacted.”

“The Russians have kind of bluffed and blustered, but they haven’t been provoked. And there was concern [over this] in the administration early on – there still is to some degree – but the fear of provoking the Russians has gone down,” Taylor added.

ukraine-soldier-selfie-1280x720.jpgA Ukrainian soldier takes a selfie as an artillery system fires in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine on Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Kostiantyn Liberov)

At the end of August, the Biden administration also announced that it plans to set up a military assistance mission in Ukraine and make it a new separate command with its own general, such as was done for other American military campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. This move indicates the White House is planning for a long war in Ukraine.

American officials have also become quite open about U.S. tactics and aid to Ukraine. For example, General Richard Clarke, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command until his recent retirement, boasted to the Washington Post about a U.S. program to train Ukraine on how to conduct a “partisan campaign” to fight an occupying army.

Since the overthrow of a pro-Russian Ukrainian president during the violent Maidan Revolution in 2014, American Special Operations officials have helped Ukraine build up its own special operations forces, Clarke said.

“With our assistance, they built the capacity, so they grew and they grew in numbers, but more importantly, they built capability,” in both combat assaults and information operations, Clarke told the newspaper.

He said Ukrainian special forces created and trained “resistance companies” recruited from the local population to target Russians.

“If you’re a Russian soldier today, your head must be on a swivel because you don’t know where the threat is,” he said. “They can’t look at any Ukrainian and know if that person is an enemy.”

“This guerrilla war has produced a grim body count among pro-Russian officials in the occupied areas,” the Post said. “In the past few weeks, pro-Russian officials have been killed or injured by car bombs, roadside bombs, poison and shotguns.”

Meanwhile, British media is reporting that the United Kingdom will expand a military training program in Britain for Ukrainians. Since June, about 4,700 Ukrainians have gone through military courses set up at bases in Britain and now Britain says it wants to train tens of thousands of more Ukrainian citizens. Military instructors from eight other countries, including New Zealand, Sweden and the Netherlands, are also involved.

Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, told Sky News that the training program “developed rapidly, and we are now extending it to five weeks to provide the best possible preparation for Ukrainian soldiers who will soon be in active combat operations.”

He added: “We must do everything we can to help them defend their homes against this illegal and unprovoked Russian invasion, and will continue to do so for as long as it takes. We stand with Ukraine.”

Ukrainians are taught how to handle weapons, perform battlefield first aid and conduct fieldcraft and patrol tactics. The extra two weeks will provide the new soldiers with more advanced training, such as trench and urban warfare, vehicle-mounted operations, and battlefield exercises in simulated combat environments, Sky News reported.

Details have also emerged about Western intelligence agencies providing Ukrainian forces with detailed information about Russian troop movements and actions. British strike and reconnaissance special forces personnel reportedly have been on the ground in Ukraine to help Kyiv strike at Russian targets far behind the front lines.

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

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