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Man named in July 4 plot sentenced on immigration charge

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 11, 2022

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — A Guatemalan immigrant who was identified by Richmond police as one of two suspects in a potential July 4 mass shooting plot has been sentenced to 5 1/2 months in prison for reentering the U.S. after deportation.

Rolman Balcarcel-Bavagas, 38, was sentenced Thursday in U.S. District Court after pleading guilty to the charge in August. He does not face any charges related to the alleged mass shooting plot.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported that Judge Hannah Lauck said during the sentencing hearing that it would be legally inappropriate for her to take into account that “there were some very serious firearms” recovered by police in the house where Balcarcel-Bavagas was living because there was no evidence tying him to the weapons. His housemate, Julio Alvarado Dubon, 52, has been charged with illegally possessing two AR-15-style rifles and a semiautomatic pistol that were discovered in his room during a search.

Prosecutors said Balcarcel-Bavagas illegally entered the U.S. three times and had been deported twice before. Balcarcel-Bavagas will be deported to Guatemala after serving his term.

During a July 6 press conference, former Richmond police Chief Gerald Smith said Balcarcel-Bavagas and Dubon had been planning a mass shooting at a Fourth of July gathering at the Dogwood Dell Amphitheater. But prosecutors ultimately determined there was no evidence to prosecute the two men on charges related to such an event.

In court documents filed last month, federal prosecutors said they lack evidence to prove Balcarcel-Bavagas was part of a mass shooting plot, but added that law enforcement acted “lawfully and appropriately” when investigating a tip from a concerned citizen about a potential mass shooting.

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‘Paranoid’ crypto millionaire Nikolai Mushegian drowns in Puerto Rico

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

Published: 15:03 GMT, 10 November 2022 | Updated: 15:03 GMT, 10 November 2022

Nikolai Mushegian, 29, died on October 28, hours after posting his final tweet

A ‘paranoid’ cryptocurrency millionaire drowned on a Puerto Rico beach after tweeting that he feared the CIA and Mossad were going to murder him.

Nikolai Mushegian, 29, died on October 28, hours after posting his final tweet.

The troubled young millionaire had a history of mental health problems and his family do not believe there was any foul play.

In a tweet hours before he died, he said: ‘CIA and Mossad and pedo elite are running some kind of sex trafficking entrapment blackmail ring out of Puerto Rico and Caribbean islands.

‘They are going to frame me with a laptop planted by my ex [girlfriend] who was a spy. They will torture me to death.’

However some in the cryptocurrency community in Puerto Rico are suspicious of the timing of his death.

He was discovered by a surfer in the water at Ashford Beach on October 29, fully clothed and carrying his wallet.

Mushegian was found in the water by a surfer in Puerto Rico, hours after posting this unhinged tweet

A surfer spotted Nikolai’s body floating in the water near Ashford Avenue in Condado on October 28

Brock Pierce, another cryptocurrency entrepreneur who is well known in the community, told The New York Post that he was satisfied Nikolai’s death was not suspicious after speaking to his family in Florida.

‘His mother clarified that his death had nothing to do with his [conspiracy] tweets.

‘He was a beautiful man and a child at heart. He was also an incredible visionary, I don’t call people brilliant very often but Nikolai was brilliant.

‘And brilliant people sometimes walk the edge of insanity,’ he said.

Nikolai’s family had become so concerned for his welfare that his father had gone to stay with him in Condado, Puerto Rico, where he is said to have lived in a $6million house.

The young man’s death comes at a time when the cryptocurrency industry is in flux.

Ameen Soleimani, the CEO of Spankchain, is among those who are suspicious of his death

FTX, the crypto trading platform, is on the brink of collapse and desperately awaiting a bailout.

It was reported that Binance had offered to prop up the platform with a cash bailout, but the company has since backed out.

Nikolai’s friends in the community were stunned by his death.

‘Yea so Nikolai is still F*****G DEAD my money is on him being murdered he was found drowned 4 hours after his riskiest tweet ever.

‘He had all year to drown randomly or be mugged, so it seems unlikely that his death was unrelated to his tweet…’ said Ameen Soleimani, the CEO of Spankchain.

One of Nikolai’s friends also told the Post that his paranoia was partly informed.

‘Some of his paranoia was based on fact.

‘He’d discover things. He knew things. Nikolai got bored a lot with the mundane of life. He’d go after things, constantly putting himself in weird positions. It wasn’t for the money.

‘He was interested in why things were the way they were and the corruption behind it.’

Police in Puerto Rico continue to investigate.

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WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Releases 9/11 Commission Interview With George W. Bush, Dick Cheney

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

A rough transcript of a 2004 interview George W. Bush and Dick Cheney gave to a government commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks provides a glimpse of the former president’s and vice president’s views of the seminal event that defined their eight years in the White House.

The April 2004 interview with the bipartisan 9/11 commission, which took place in the Oval Office, included discussion of intelligence warnings before the attacks and the events that unfolded on the day of Sept. 11, according to the copy of the 31-page document. It also describes Mr. Bush acknowledging that Air Force One had poor communications while he was on the plane shortly after the attacks began—and Mr. Bush’s assertion that he gave Mr. Cheney the authority to shoot down commercial airliners that were unresponsive.

The newly declassified document was released to the public Wednesday.

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Scoops, analysis and insights driving Washington from the WSJ’s D.C. bureau.

“‘Yes, engage the enemy,’” Mr. Bush is described as saying he had told Mr. Cheney. “‘You have the authority to shoot down an airplane.’” In other instances, the document recounts Mr. Cheney repeatedly telling Mr. Bush, who was on a stage at a school in Florida when the attacks began, not to return to Washington.

“The president agreed, reluctantly,” the document says. “The president asked the vice president to take necessary steps and stay in close touch.”

The interview wasn’t recorded, but a note taker was present. The document was authorized for public release by the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel, a body of representatives from various federal departments. It contains few redactions and includes Mr. Bush’s reflections on threat reports he received in the spring and summer of 2001. It is not a verbatim transcript, but a “memorandum for the record” taken during the meeting.

The attacks, just eight months into Mr. Bush’s presidency, killed nearly 3,000 people in New York, the Pentagon and Shanksville, Pa., and prompted the Bush administration to launch wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that would last much of the next two decades. The government’s failure to foresee and prevent them led to the massive expansion of the U.S. security and intelligence apparatus, including the Department of Homeland Security, the Transportation Security Administration and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

In the interview, Mr. Bush repeatedly pushed back against suggestions from some of the 9/11 commissioners and others that he and his top advisers could have been more proactive against the terrorist group al Qaeda, which had already attacked two U.S. embassies in East Africa and the Navy destroyer USS Cole, before Sept. 11, 2001.

The president told the commission that an item in his Aug. 6, 2001, Presidential Daily Brief entitled “Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in U.S.,” about the al Qaeda leader, contained no information about al Qaeda cells inside the U.S. “There was no actionable intelligence on such a threat—not one,” the transcript quotes him as saying.

Photo: National Security Archive

That intelligence report, declassified in 2004, said the Federal Bureau of Investigation had information on “patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijacking or other types of suspicious attacks,” but provided no details.

Nor was there appetite for putting U.S. military forces inside Afghanistan, where al Qaeda was based, before the attacks, Mr. Bush said. He quoted British Prime Minister Tony Blair as telling him, had Mr. Bush suggested it, “I would have looked at you like a nut.”

Messrs. Bush and Cheney weren’t under oath, after the White House argued that would set a concerning precedent for future presidents. Afterward, Mr. Bush described the meeting as cordial, telling reporters he had answered every question.

A spokesman for Mr. Bush said the spokesman was unaware the release of the interview was forthcoming and declined to comment further. A spokesman for Mr. Cheney couldn’t be reached.

Philip Zelikow, executive director the 9/11 Commission, said that while much of the material from the interview was cited in the commission’s 2004 report, the memorandum gives the public a look at Mr. Bush’s discussion of the event that shaped his presidency, and at his relationship with Mr. Cheney.

“For a lot of people, it will be the first time they can really hear George Bush talking about the issue in a direct way under prolonged examination,” said Mr. Zelikow, who was present at the interview and drafted the memorandum. “It’s more the private Bush, not the public Bush.”

The interview, he said, undercuts a stereotype that Mr. Bush was deferential to, or even manipulated by, his vice president. Mr. Bush “took command from the start” in the session, he said.

The 9/11 Commission issued its final report in July 2004, concluding the U.S. government was ill-prepared to detect signs that al Qaeda was planning the attacks. The report was seen as a landmark document upon its release and became a bestseller—an unusual feat for a government document.

The 9/11 Commission document contains new insights into confusion at the highest levels of the U.S. government in the hours after the attacks.

Photo: Doug Mills/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Mr. Cheney thought the plane that crashed near Shanksville, United Airlines Flight 93, had been shot down by U.S. military aircraft. Mr. Bush was asked for authority to shoot down an airliner coming from Madrid, only to be told minutes later that the plane had actually landed in Madrid. Even on Air Force One, “communications were not as good as they should have been,” Mr. Bush told the commissioners.

In another revelation, the chairman of the commission, former New Jersey Gov. Thomas Kean, asked Messrs. Bush and Cheney if they were aware that the Secret Service had scrambled jets from Andrews Air Force Base outside of the military chain of command after the attacks.

“The president, surprised, asked the chairman to repeat ‘ordered by the Secret Service?’” the document states. “The chairman affirmed that. The president said he did not know about that.”

Last year, the Public Interest Declassification Board—a small panel of experts selected by presidents and congressional leaders to advocate for more transparency around government national-security information—sent a letter to President Biden recommending a list of 9/11 Commission documents to give priority to for declassification and public release. The board was involved in reviewing material for disclosure.

In addition to the interview with Messrs. Bush and Cheney, the board also requested the release of interviews with former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore and former national security officials including Condoleezza Rice, and a summary and analysis of information in president’s daily briefs from the Clinton and Bush administrations on al Qaeda terrorism planning.

In a statement, Ezra Cohen, chair of the declassification board, said the release of the historical record would be “an important step towards additional public transparency.”

Mr. Cohen added the board hoped in the coming months that additional records about the attacks would be released, consistent with a Biden executive order signed last year ordering the review of still-classified 9/11 documents for potential public disclosure.

Write to Dustin Volz at dustin.volz@wsj.com and Warren P. Strobel at Warren.Strobel@wsj.com

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The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

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And the loser is … Donald J Trump. The identity of the winners of America’s midterm elections was not clear the morning after the night before – even at lunchtime on Wednesday the TV anchors could not tell their audiences whether Democrats or Republicans would be in control of the House of Representatives or Senate – but there was no such ambiguity over the fate of the man who continues to loom over US politics, even two years after his removal from the White House. Trump took a beating.

True to form, the former president had wanted this election to be all about him. His rallies, nominally staged to boost support for Republican candidates in whichever state he had landed in, were instead intensely focused on himself. At an outdoor event in Latrobe, Pennsylvania on Saturday night, for example, he spoke only fleetingly of the men running for governor or senator, devoting most of his two-hour speech either to relitigating the past – insisting, against all evidence, that the 2020 election was stolen from him – or hinting at a glorious future, talking up his prospects for retaking the presidency in 2024.

When he projected charts on to the giant screens, the graphics did not make a case for why Democrats deserved to lose their majorities in Congress, still less offer policy remedies for how the Republicans would combat inflation or crime. No, they showed a series of opinion polls, each one confirming how Trump remained the Republican faithful’s favourite, miles in front of any would-be rival.

As things turned out, the ex-president’s trademark narcissism was not so wide of the mark. In a way, the 2022 midterms were indeed all about him – just not in the way he had hoped.

Trump, like so many others, had assumed Tuesday would see a red wave rolling across America, sweeping Democrats out of both houses of Congress, toppling blue citadels in the most unexpected places: in the final weekend, there was sufficient panic in the highest reaches of the Democratic party that both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were dispatched to New York, one of the bluest states in the union, to shore up a governor who was suddenly thought to be in a tight race. (In fact, she won easily.)

Trump was poised to claim credit for a famous victory and to enjoy the fruits of it. He looked forward to a decisive Republican takeover of the House, one that would see the Democrat-led investigation into the attempted insurrection of 6 January 2021 abandoned, its place taken instead by multiple probes into the affairs of the Biden family. As one seasoned Democrat put it to me this week, “He’ll expect the House to operate as his law firm.”

But even if his party does eke out an eventual congressional win, there was no Republican tsunami. “Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure,” admitted senator and tireless Trump sycophant Lindsey Graham.

That’s a surprise, and not only because it upended the Washington conventional wisdom. Heavy midterm defeat for the party of a first-term, incumbent president is seen as the norm, a pendulum effect all but governed by the laws of nature. Barack Obama lost 63 House seats in 2010, just as Bill Clinton lost 52 in 1994. Trump himself lost 40 in 2018. Yet Democratic losses this time will be much fewer, even at a time of great economic hardship and low poll ratings for the Democratic president. How was Biden able to buck that historical trend? The answer lies, in part, with Trump.

The former president inserted himself into multiple contests, endorsing candidates at the primaries stage when parties choose their standard-bearers. The Trump seal of approval proved decisive in several, but just look at how those Trump favourites fared. True, the memoirist and venture capitalist JD Vance won in now solidly red Ohio, but in swing states Trumpers performed badly. An election denier who had been present at the 6 January Capitol Hill riot was trounced in the race to be Pennsylvania governor, while TV doctor Mehmet Oz, another Trump pick, was defeated in the Senate race by Democrat John Fetterman – even though the latter faced persistent questions about his ability to serve following a severe stroke in the summer.

Perhaps most revealing of the Trump effect was Georgia. Two Republican officials who became nationally known when they resisted Trump pressure to overturn the 2020 presidential count in their state were comfortably re-elected. But Herschel Walker, handpicked by Trump to run for the senate in Georgia, was in a photo finish for that all-important seat, one set to be decided by a run-off next month. Meanwhile, a Trumper in New Hampshire was soundly beaten, while another, Kari Lake, seemed to be trailing in what should have been a winnable contest in Arizona.

As Wednesday morning came, a pattern seemed to be emerging. Even Fox News reporters were quoting Republican sources telling them: “If it wasn’t clear before, it should be now. We have a Trump problem.”

It wasn’t just Trump’s talent for picking duff candidates in states Republicans had to win (and will need to win again in 2024). It was the transformation he has wrought in the Republican party itself. A majority of GOP candidates had cast doubt on or outright denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. That enabled Democrats, starting with Biden himself, to argue that, whatever grievances voters had with the party’s handling of the economy, they had to vote Democrat to save democracy.

Bad poll numbers had some wondering if that was a mistaken message, given voters’ preoccupation with rising prices, but it seems to have paid dividends. Along with reproductive rights, imperilled by the supreme court’s summer ruling ending constitutional protection for abortion, the threat to democracy galvanised blue turnout, seemingly turning a red wave into a red ripple. Blame, or credit, for that comes entirely down to Trump, who made election denial a Republican article of faith.

All this affects Trump’s prospects for 2024, not least because his most obvious rival for the Republican nomination, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, had such a good night. DeSantis was re-elected in his own state by a landslide, racking up big numbers in historically Democratic counties. At that Saturday rally in Pennsylvania, Trump had mocked the governor, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” (not one of his better hostile nicknames). The contrast between the two is no longer flattering to Trump, a point made robustly by one senior Republican: “The one guy [Trump] attacked before election day was DeSantis – the clear winner. Meanwhile, all his guys are shitting the bed.” In Ohio, strikingly, JD Vance did not even mention the former president in his victory speech.

Cold, hard logic suggests Republicans should step away from Trump, a man who has now presided over three consecutive defeats in 2018, 2020 and 2022 (four if you include the two Georgia senate runoffs in January 2021). But it won’t be simple. For one thing, Trump’s defenders can argue that they do better when his name is on the ballot than when it is not – and it is true that Republicans did gain congressional seats in 2016 and 2020. But in some ways that underlines the problem. Because in a year when Trump himself is not a candidate, like 2022, his absence weakens hardcore Trump devotees’ desire to turn out, while his looming presence on the scene repels the floating voters who decide elections. Put another way, the Republicans’ problem is not simply Trump the man. It is that they have become Trump’s party.

All of this is sweet balm for Democrats, who can now crack open the popcorn and enjoy the spectacle of Republicans fighting each other. But that too has implications for 2024. One clear winner from these midterms is Joe Biden, who presided over a better than expected performance for his party. That will reduce the pressure on him to make way for a fresher candidate for next time. Some Democrats anticipated that the thundercloud of defeat they expected on Tuesday would have one silver lining: Biden, who is showing his 80 years, would feel compelled to announce that he would not seek re-election. Those voices have now been stilled, at least for now.

In part, Biden can thank his 2020 antagonist for that. The flaws of the 45th president helped put the 46thin the White House – and now the predecessor may have done his successor another favour. For this election night, like the previous three in America, was all about Donald Trump.

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Midterm elections 2022 results: Republicans urge Trump to delay 2024 announcement

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

Republicans have urged Donald Trump to delay his announcement that he will run for president in 2024 after the Republicans failed to make a predicted “red wave” in the midterm elections.

The former president was implored to “look at realities on the ground” amid setbacks for the GOP that have raised questions about Trump’s appeal and the future of a party that has fully embraced him.

Kayleigh McEnany, former press secretary for Trump, added that he would be wise to wait until the Georgia runoff.

“I think he needs to put it on pause,” she said.

Jason Miller, a former Trump advisor who spent the night with the former president at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, also suggested he delay.

“Georgia needs to be the focus of every Republican in the country right now,” Mr Miller said. “I’m not alone when I say President Trump’s best moves are to put all his efforts to get Herschel Walker elected.”

With counting still underway, the Democrats have won a stronger-than-anticipated performance, although Control of the Senate and House is still yet to be decided and they could lose both.

Follow the latest updates.

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Here’s how Donald Trump sabotaged the Republican midterms

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

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Hey, Lyin’ Ted and Sleepy Joe: Meet Toxic Trump. You know, if the former president had any self-knowledge or even the slightest ability to be self-deprecating, he might consider giving himself this alliterative nickname.

After three straight national tallies in which either he or his party or both were hammered by the national electorate, it’s time for even his stans to accept the truth: Toxic Trump is the political equivalent of a can of Raid.

What Tuesday night’s results suggest is that Trump is perhaps the most profound vote repellant in modern American history.

The surest way to lose in these midterms was to be a politician endorsed by Trump.

This is not hyperbole.

Except for deep red states where a Republican corpse would have beaten a Democrat, voters choosing in actually competitive races — who everyone expected would behave like midterm voters usually do and lean toward the out party — took one look at Trump’s hand-picked acolytes and gagged.

Liberal fundraisers actually put money behind Trump-endorsed candidates in GOP primaries all over the place to help them prevail so that Democrats could face them in the general election. It was transparently cynical and an abuse of our political process. But it worked like gangbusters.

New York Post cover for Nov. 10, 2022.

Candidates backed by former President Donald Trump fared poorly in the midterm elections.REUTERS/Ricardo Arduengo/File Photo

As Kevin Robillard of the Huffington Post noted on Wednesday afternoon, when a Michigan Democrat named Hilary Scholten was finally declared the winner of her House seat against a raving lunatic named John Gibbs: “With this race call, every single Republican who won their primary with help from Democratic meddling has lost in the general election.”

Gibbs is an example of Trump’s monomania. A former official for Trump’s Department of Housing and Urban Development, Gibbs Tweeted that officials associated with Hillary Clinton participated in Satanic rituals. But no matter! Gibbs believed the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, the only stance that matters to the former president.

Trump backed Gibbs in the primary to unseat a sitting Republican, Peter Meijer, because Meijer had the temerity to vote in favor of impeachment after the shame of Jan. 6.
Trump got his way. Republicans lost the seat.

This pattern repeated itself over and over and over again.

In almost every place a Trumpster lost, there had been a regular Republican who could and should have been the party’s nominee — a nominee who could have taken advantage of the uniquely horrible facts and fundamentals confronting Democratic candidates in 2022.

John Gibbs, the GOP candidate for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, lost after being endorsed by Trump for repeating lies about the 2020 election.Joel Bissell/The Grand Rapids Press via AP

Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz lost his race against Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.REUTERS/Hannah Beier

But then Toxic Trump came in to these races, picking the candidate who bowed lowest — or, as in Pennsylvania, went for a snake-oil doctor salesman because, it seems, his wife enjoyed watching Mehmet Oz carny-bark on afternoon TV.

And the independent voters history tells us would ordinarily have flocked to the GOP said, “Oh, man, what is that stink?”

In the past four midterms, indies chose the party that did not hold the White House by double-digit margins. In 2018, with Trump as president, the Independent vote was 12 points in the Democrats’ favor. In 2006, with George W. Bush in the Oval Office, the number was 18 points. When Obama was president in 2010 and 2014, Indies went 16 and 12 points in the Republican direction respectively.

Piers Morgan column on Trump and DeSantis.

This week, Independents went 49-48 for the Democrats. One point — in the other direction.

Independents made the difference then and they made the difference on Tuesday. They didn’t want to keep hearing about voter fraud that didn’t exist, or about how the world done wrong a multi-billionaire boo-hoo whiner who lost his reelection bid due to his own incompetence.

Voters have their own problems. This election was about them, not Toxic Trump’s pathological inability to accept his own failure — and his desperate need to elevate cringe-inducing boot-lickers while punishing politicians capable of an independent thought.

The British political figure Oliver Cromwell once said about other British politicians who had overstayed their welcome and were ruining the country, “In the name of God, go!”

Yo, Toxic Trump: Scram.

TRUMP’S BIGGEST LOSERS

DR. MEHMET OZ

David McCormick, a former undersecretary of the Treasury Department under George W. Bush, was recruited to run for the Pennsylvania seat vacated by Republican Pat Toomey. But Trump favored TV personality Oz, and attacked McCormick in the primary. Oz lost to John Fetterman, a Democrat was so addled by a stroke he could barely debate.

BLAKE MASTERS

Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders very much wanted Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to run against Democrat Mark Kelly for senate. But Trump blasted Ducey for not illegally overturning the 2022 election results in Arizona, and the governor decided not to run. The race hasn’t been called, but it seems that Kelly will defeat election denier Masters.

Trump backed Blake Masters to run in Arizona over Gov. Doug Ducey.Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

DON BOLDUC

The Republican candidate for senator from New Hampshire got Trump’s support for saying 2020 was stolen during the primary. But when he wavered in the general, Trump attacked him, and when Bolduc lost to Democrat Maggie Hassan, Trump disowned him.

HERSCHEL WALKER

Trump was all-in on the former NFL player despite doubts from other Republicans. Walker way underperformed fellow Republican Brian Kemp (whom Trump refused to endorse or campaign for because he wouldn’t illegally overturn Georgia’s vote), who cruised to re-election as governor. Walker now faces a runoff with Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Herschel Walker is heading to a runoff election after failing to beat out incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

DOUG MASTRIANO

The GOP thought they had a shot at the Pennsylvania governor’s seat, but Trump boosted the election-denying Mastriano, who lost to Democrat Josh Shapiro.

TUDOR DIXON

She earned Trump’s endorsement, and a primary win, by claiming 2020 was stolen. But Republican Dixon lost the governor’s race in Michigan to incumbent Gretchen Whitmer.

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Circulan nuevas variantes de covid. Esto es lo que hay que saber

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 10, 2022

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La “variante pesadilla” no es tan mala como suena.

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10 de noviembre de 2022 a las 03:00 ET

A medida que va haciendo frío y más personas trasladan sus actividades a espacios interiores, el reciente descenso de los casos de COVID-19 en Estados Unidos ha empezado a estabilizarse. Las hospitalizaciones relacionadas con el coronavirus están aumentando en algunos estados, incluyendo Arizona, Indiana, Illinois, Nevada, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Dakota del Sur y Wisconsin. Y ha habido una variedad de titulares preocupantes sobre la evasión inmunitaria y la mayor transmisibilidad de la siguiente ronda de variantes de coronavirus.

Al menos media decena de versiones del virus compiten por convertirse en la próxima cepa dominante en Estados Unidos, pero todas forman parte del mismo árbol genealógico. “Todas son descendientes de ómicron”, afirmó Albert Ko, médico y epidemiólogo de la Escuela de Salud Pública de Yale. Aunque cada subvariante tiene mutaciones ligeramente diferentes, ninguna de ellas parece estar creando olas significativas todavía, como sí lo hicieron las variantes delta y ómicron cuando aparecieron por primera vez, aseguró Ko.

Esto es lo que saben los expertos hasta ahora sobre las nuevas subvariantes y lo que sus mutaciones pueden significar para las infecciones reincidentes, los síntomas, los picos de casos y las opciones de tratamiento.

¿Qué subvariantes están circulando ahora?, y ¿qué es la “variante pesadilla”?

Según los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (CDC, por su sigla en inglés), la subvariante BA.5, que impulsó la oleada de COVID-19 en el verano, sigue causando algo menos de la mitad de las infecciones en todo el país. Pero otras dos subvariantes están creciendo rápidamente y se espera que superen a la BA.5 muy pronto: BQ.1 y BQ.1.1.

Hasta el 28 de octubre, BQ.1 representaba el 14 por ciento de las infecciones por COVID-19 en Estados Unidos, mientras que BQ.1.1 representaba el 13,1 por ciento. Otra variante, denominada BQ.4.6, también ha ganado algo de terreno desde agosto. Ahora representa el 9,6 por ciento de los casos.

Las BF.7, BA.5.2.6, BA.2.75 y otras variantes también se disputan la posición en Estados Unidos, mientras que otra variante llamada XBB ha sido noticia por su papel en el aumento de casos de COVID-19 en Singapur. Algunos informes han llegado a llamar a la XBB la “variante pesadilla”, a pesar de que el número de casos e ingresos hospitalarios asociados a ella ya había descendido de manera significativa para el 29 de octubre.

El recuento de casos y la localización de cada subvariante son importantes sobre todo para quienes siguen de cerca la pandemia e intentan rastrear hasta qué punto las subvariantes evaden las protecciones inmunitarias, cuánto circulan en una comunidad y qué gravedad pueden tener para los infectados.

¿Hasta qué punto deben preocuparme estas nuevas subvariantes?

La evolución de nuevas variantes de coronavirus no es nada nuevo. “Ya nos hemos enfrentado a esto antes, con la gripe, por ejemplo”, explicó Ko. “Los virus y los patógenos intentan constantemente adaptarse y escapar de la presión inmunitaria que les planteamos”.

Con las nuevas subvariantes que son más eficaces para escapar al sistema inmunitario, los adultos sanos tienen más probabilidades de infectarse incluso después de la vacunación o de una infección previa con una variante diferente. De hecho, algunos estudios en prepublicación indican que la infección o la vacunación previas podrían no producir anticuerpos que protejan de manera sólida contra las nuevas subvariantes en los experimentos de laboratorio.

Sin embargo, otras partes del sistema inmunitario pueden salir en nuestra defensa, según Otto Yang, médico especialista en enfermedades infecciosas e investigador en inmunología de la Escuela de Medicina David Geffen de la Universidad de California en Los Ángeles.

“Las mutaciones que definen estas nuevas variantes se agrupan alrededor de un área clave para las interacciones de los anticuerpos, pero la secuencia general de la espiga no se modifica lo suficiente como para afectar a las células T que reconocen cualquier parte de la secuencia, y son las que previenen la enfermedad grave”, señaló Yang. “Las personas que están al día con sus vacunas y que reciben un tratamiento temprano con Paxlovid o con remdesivir van a estar bien en su mayor parte”. (Paxlovid es un medicamento oral antiviral, y remdesivir es un antiviral inyectable).

A la mayoría de los expertos no les preocupa la posibilidad de que las nuevas subvariantes causen enfermedades leves. “Si vemos que se reducen las muertes y si se reducen las enfermedades graves y las hospitalizaciones, incluso si la gente se infecta, eso sigue siendo un gran éxito”, aclaró Michael Osterholm, epidemiólogo y director del Centro de Investigación y Política de Enfermedades Infecciosas de la Universidad de Minnesota.

La evasión inmunitaria es una preocupación mayor para las personas inmunodeprimidas o que no tienen una respuesta inmune fuerte a las vacunas. Esto incluye a las personas que se han sometido a trasplantes de células madre u órganos, a las que reciben tratamientos contra el cáncer, a las que padecen enfermedades autoinmunes y a las que necesitan medicación inmunosupresora para varios padecimientos médicos, comentó Alpana Waghmare, experta en enfermedades infecciosas del Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center.

Las personas inmunodeprimidas suelen recurrir a vacunas preventivas como Evusheld y tratamientos intravenosos de covid como bebtelovimab, que se elaboran a partir de anticuerpos monoclonales y pueden llenar los vacíos en la protección que estos pacientes pueden tener de las vacunas, comentó Waghmare. Pero los tratamientos con anticuerpos monoclonales están diseñados para actuar sobre una parte concreta del virus; si esa parte se altera en las nuevas subvariantes, esos tratamientos podrían dejar de ser eficaces.

“Esa es la preocupación de la mayoría de los médicos, que perdamos este conjunto de herramientas para luchar contra la covid”, agregó Waghmare. Como resultado, las personas inmunodeprimidas tal vez tengan que enfrentarse a una enfermedad más grave sin la opción de un tratamiento con anticuerpos monoclonales, aunque otros tratamientos antivirales sigan impidiendo que aumenten las muertes totales en ese grupo.

¿Cuáles son los síntomas de una infección por COVID-19 con una de las nuevas subvariantes?

Todavía no hay pruebas que sugieran que las personas infectadas por BQ.1, BQ.1.1 o cualquiera de las otras subvariantes experimenten ningún síntoma nuevo o inusual, o que su enfermedad sea más grave que lo que hemos visto con las variantes anteriores de ómicron, afirmó Waghmare.

Los síntomas más comunes siguen siendo una leve secreción nasal, dolor de cabeza y dolor de garganta. Estos pueden preceder a una prueba de covid con resultado positivo, y los síntomas pueden ser leves o un poco más graves durante la duración de la enfermedad. “Es difícil saber si la reducción de la gravedad que estamos observando se debe a la variante real o a que la gente está más protegida porque se ha vacunado o ha sufrido una infección anteriormente”, añadió Waghmare.

¿Cómo puedo protegerme contra el virus?

Lo mejor que puede hacer la mayoría de la gente para protegerse en invierno es vacunarse y luego tomar la dosis de refuerzo. En particular, las personas de alto riesgo, así como las que no han recibido un refuerzo o una infección por covid en los últimos cuatro a seis meses, deberían hacer planes de vacunarse, aseguró Yang. Algunos expertos recomiendan recibir el refuerzo incluso antes.

Un estudio de Pfizer sugiere que el refuerzo actualizado bivalente, que en Estados Unidos está disponible desde septiembre, produce una mejor respuesta de anticuerpos contra la BA.5 para las personas mayores de 55 años que el refuerzo disponible anteriormente. Otros datos independientes indican que la inyección podría no ofrecer muchos beneficios adicionales a personas relativamente jóvenes y sanas que ya han recibido cuatro dosis de la vacuna. El refuerzo bivalente puede entrenar al sistema inmunitario para que reconozca el virus original de 2020, así como la variante ómicron BA.5. Pero aún está por ver la eficacia de los anticuerpos de la vacuna bivalente contra las subvariantes más recientes, como BQ.1 y BQ.1.1, que ya se han diferenciado de la BA.5.

Aparte de los anticuerpos, la protección de las células T que surge del refuerzo debería poder protegernos contra la enfermedad grave si nos infectamos, dijo Yang. Según algunos estudios realizados en Israel, la protección de las células T parece empezar a disminuir en torno a los seis meses, por lo que podrías considerar la posibilidad de recibir otra vacuna si ha pasado más tiempo, incluso si eres joven y estás saludable.

Las personas con alto riesgo de padecer COVID-19 grave o con familiares vulnerables también deben considerar la posibilidad de usar cubrebocas, evitar los lugares cerrados con mucha gente y preguntar a los demás sobre los síntomas de covid o las exposiciones si asisten a reuniones durante la temporada de festividades. También deben hacerse pruebas con frecuencia y recibir medicación antiviral, como Paxlovid, desde el principio si una prueba da resultado positivo, explicó Waghmare.

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Biden Celebrates Beating the Odds, but He Faces a New Challenge

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 9, 2022

Continue reading the main story

President Biden appeared to have the best midterms of any president in 20 years, avoiding the “shellacking” his predecessors endured. But even a narrow Republican majority could transform his presidency.

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President Biden, wearing a blue suit, holds a microphone while looking at a reporter asking a question into a microphone, which was held by a White House staffer.

President Biden scored the best midterm result of any president in 20 years, avoiding a predicted Republican surge.Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

Nov. 9, 2022Updated 7:05 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — President Biden on Wednesday celebrated avoiding the “giant red wave” that many had anticipated in this week’s midterm elections and reaffirmed that he intends to run again in 2024, even as he vowed to work across the aisle with ascendant congressional Republicans.

While the president appeared to have beaten the historical odds by minimizing his party’s losses, he still faced the sobering prospect of a Republican-controlled House for the next two years even if Democrats hold the Senate, jeopardizing his ambitious legislative agenda and presaging a new era of grinding conflict with subpoena-powered opponents.

But at a post-election news conference at the White House, a cheerful Mr. Biden appeared energized by the better-than-expected results, calling it “a good day for democracy” while signaling no course correction and acknowledging no mistakes.

“I’m not going to change,” he said. While open to cooperation with Republicans, he defiantly said he would block any efforts by the opposition to unravel the accomplishments of his first two years. “I have a pen that can veto,” he said, making a signing motion with his hand.

The mixed results from the midterm elections will take days or weeks to unfold as counting continues in key states and a Senate runoff looms in Georgia. It may take even longer to determine definitively what those results will mean for the rest of the Biden presidency. By any measure, Mr. Biden scored the best midterm result of any president in 20 years, avoiding the Republican surge that many strategists in both parties predicted, even as it could leave him with a more hostile Congress and uncertain prospects for advancing his priorities for the remainder of his term.

The elections were not a clear mandate for Mr. Biden, but neither were they the repudiation that many of his predecessors endured during midterms. An aging president sometimes seen as frail and hobbled by the highest inflation in four decades, an overseas war roiling energy markets and anemic poll numbers somehow overcame expectations anyway — another chapter in Mr. Biden’s lifelong narrative of stubborn resilience in the face of adversity.

The results may encourage him to seek re-election and could for now quiet dissenting voices within his party that have been agitating for another standard-bearer in 2024 as he approaches his 80th birthday later this month. He has some breathing room to think it over without feeling rushed because former President Donald J. Trump may jump into the race as soon as next week. Mr. Biden indicated that he would talk it over with his family during the holidays and announce a decision “early next year.”

“Our intention is to run again,” he said. “That’s been our intention regardless of what the outcome of this election was.”

He added: “This is ultimately a family decision. I think everybody wants me to run, but we’re going to have discussions about it. And I don’t feel any hurry one way or another to make that judgment, today, tomorrow, whenever, no matter what my predecessor does.”

Asked if polling that shows most voters would rather he not run again would have any influence on his decision, he said crisply, “It doesn’t.” What would be his message to the doubters? “Watch me.”

Card 1 of 4

Much remains uncertain. For the second Election Day in a row, election night ended without a clear winner. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, takes a look at the state of the races for the House and Senate, and when we might know the outcome:

The House. The Needle suggests the House is leaning towards Republicans, but the G.O.P. is nowhere close to being called the winner in several key races, where late mail ballots have the potential to help Democrats. It will take days to count these ballots.

The Senate. The fight for the Senate will come down to four states: Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. Outstanding ballots in Nevada and Arizona could take days to count, but control of the chamber may ultimately hinge on Georgia, which is headed for a Dec. 6 runoff.

How we got here. The political conditions seemed ripe for Republicans to make big midterm pickups, but voters had other ideas. While we wait for more results, read our five takeaways and analysis of why this “red wave” didn’t materialize for the G.O.P.

Even as the elections lifted Mr. Biden’s spirits, they undercut Mr. Trump, who watched with frustration as key allies went down to defeat and his own strongest rival for the next Republican nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis, scored an impressive landslide victory in Florida. Exit polls showed that even a not-popular Mr. Biden retains more public support than his predecessor.

The president conceded that Mr. Trump’s supporters retain enormous influence and will be a challenge for him. “I don’t think that we’re going to break the fever for the super-mega MAGA Republicans,” he said. But he expressed hope that he can find common ground with the rest of the Republicans, whom he called “decent, honorable people.”

“As I have throughout my career, I’m going to continue to work across the aisle to deliver for the American people,” he said. “And it is not always easy, but we did it in the first term.” To those Republicans planning to investigate his administration and even his family, he said, “Good luck in your senior year, as my coach used to say.”

Mr. Biden acknowledged that the midterm elections were not a sign of satisfaction by the public. “The voters were also clear that they are still frustrated,” he said. “I get it. I understand it has been a really tough few years in this country for so many people.”

Mr. Biden spoke a day before he is scheduled to leave town for an overseas trip that will allow him to emphasize his role as a world leader floating above domestic troubles. He is set to head to a series of meetings with international leaders in Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia with more wind at his back than anticipated, allowing him to avoid the perception of a president in trouble back home.

In his news conference, Mr. Biden repeatedly returned to two themes: that Tuesday’s elections showed a renewed level of civility in the political process, and that they should reassure American allies and adversaries that the democratic process is alive in the United States.

He recalled his first Group of 7 summit in 2021, held in a British coastal resort, and remembered telling the assembled world leaders “that America is back. And one of them turned to me and said, for how long? For how long?”

But Mr. Biden may return from his overseas trip to a reality that is less heady than the Democratic exuberance now rippling through the party. If Republicans pick up the handful of seats needed to secure the House, as currently projected, not only would they be able to block Mr. Biden’s top legislative initiatives, but they would also be empowered to try to force the president to make concessions in some policy areas through the power of the purse.

While Mr. Biden remains armed with his veto pen, as he said, the road to keeping government doors open and avoiding default on the national debt could run through Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader aiming to become speaker. Just as ominous for the White House, Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, the hard-charging firebrand Trump ally set to take over the House Judiciary Committee, would have subpoena power to investigate the Biden administration.

The road to keeping government doors open and avoiding default on the national debt could run through Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader aiming to become speaker.Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

Democrats are in a better position to hold onto the Senate, but it will come down to a few outstanding races and possibly could wait until a Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia. The loss of the Senate would not only further complicate Mr. Biden’s legislative aspirations but also hinder his efforts to confirm officials to his administration and judges to the federal bench, even possibly a Supreme Court justice, should a vacancy emerge.

The historical headwinds Mr. Biden faced as he went into Tuesday night were powerful. Only three times since the first congressional elections after World War II has inflation been as high as it is today heading into a national vote — in 1974, 1978 and 1980 — and in all three cases, the party of the incumbent president lost between 15 and 48 seats in the House.

How we get live election results. We report vote totals provided by The Associated Press, which collects results from states, counties and townships through a network of websites and more than 4,000 on-the-ground correspondents. To estimate how many votes remain to be counted, our team of data journalists and software engineers gathers vote tallies directly from the websites of election officials and compares these with our turnout expectations.

Here’s more on how that works.

Given that history and Mr. Biden’s weak approval ratings, the possibility that the Republican pickups in the House this year could be held to about a dozen seats looked like a victory, especially compared with the losses of recent presidents. Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 House seats in 1994, George W. Bush’s Republicans lost 31 seats in 2006 (a “thumping,” he called it), Barack Obama’s party lost 64 seats in 2010 (a “shellacking”) and Mr. Trump’s Republicans lost 42 seats in 2018.

“The political graveyards are full of those who underestimated him,” Paul Begala, who was a top adviser to Mr. Clinton, said of Mr. Biden. “How many times in 2020 did they count him out?” Or, he added, dismiss his chances of pushing through legislation that he eventually passed? “Politics is an uncertain business. But one constant remains: Joe Biden will be underestimated.”

For Mr. Biden, there could be an advantage in having Republican control on Capitol Hill, enabling him to use the opposition as a foil much as Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama did after their midterm defeats. Both of those presidents employed a mix of confrontation and compromise to rebound from those losses and go on to win re-election two years later.

Aides to Mr. Biden insist there are potential areas of cooperation even with today’s Trump-dominated Republicans, focusing on issues that are at the top of both parties’ priority lists, like combating the opioid crisis, imposing new regulations on major technology companies and fighting crime.

And some Republicans signaled on Tuesday night that they would like to find discreet areas of common ground. “If it’s a divided government, maybe something good can come of it,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies, told NBC News.

But the historical pattern of bipartisan deal making may be less relevant in an age of extremes. Although Mr. Biden has a history of working across the aisle, the next House Republican conference will be even more dominated by allies of Mr. Trump. And if Mr. Trump campaigns for the White House, he seems likely to goad those members to resist the sitting president at every turn.

“Before, one could read such a midterm as a sign that the country wanted cooperation among both parties rather than rule by one,” said Russell Riley, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. “That hardly seems plausible now — either in theory or in practice. The result of a divided government now is more akin to putting armed gladiators in the arena.”

Watching election news coverage at a bar in Washington on Tuesday. Credit…Kenny Holston for The New York Times

And Mr. Biden would face pushback from some in his own party if he concedes too much in their view in the interest of bipartisanship. “Voters sent a clear message that working people are hurting and demanding more action not less,” Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington state and head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said on Wednesday. “That is the big takeaway from last night, whether or not we keep the House.”

As it stands, Mr. Biden already has a lot of work to be done, without Congress, just putting into effect the legislation he passed in his first two years, including trillions of dollars in spending on infrastructure, climate change, health care, manufacturing and other areas. As aides envision it, Mr. Biden could spend much of the next two years crisscrossing the country for ribbon-cutting ceremonies.

But the confrontation part of the Clinton-Obama strategy may yet be the formula he turns to. “In terms of Biden’s hopes of getting re-elected, he knows from experience that losing a midterm election positions the president to become a counterpuncher — as Obama did in 2011-2012 and Clinton did in 1995-1996,” said Michael Nelson, a political science professor at Rhodes College and author of several books on modern presidents. “It would help if the Republicans overplayed their hand as they did in those two prior cases.”

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.

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Senate control still a toss-up as key midterm races remain uncalled

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 9, 2022

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Control of the US Senate was still up in the air on Wednesday as several hotly contested seats remained uncalled and the fierce race between Georgia’s Democratic incumbent senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker moved to a runoff.

Warnock is narrowly leading Walker, but neither candidate will be able to clear the 50% threshold needed to win outright after the polls closed on Tuesday and avoid a 6 December runoff, said Georgia’s top elections official, Brad Raffensperger.

The Associated Press has not yet called the Georgia race, though several major broadcast networks had projected a runoff before Raffensperger.

The Democrats entered the midterms with the slimmest of advantages in the Senate, which was evenly divided 50-50, though Vice-President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote in effect gives them control of the chamber.

Warnock won his current partial term over then Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler during a runoff in 2020 which helped decide the upper congressional chamber’s balance of power. Like Loeffler was, his opponent this time is backed by Donald Trump, though the ex-president’s former adviser Kayleigh McEnany on Wednesday questioned whether he should campaign alongside Walker after other candidates that he endorsed underperformed or lost on Tuesday.

Warnock – a senior minister at Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist church – unsuccessfully sought to win outright by portraying Walker as unfit for office, alluding to allegations that the Republican candidate was violent against his ex-wife and paid for two past sexual partners to terminate pregnancies despite publicly claiming to oppose abortion rights.

“I’ll work with anybody to get things done for the people of Georgia,” Warnock said as the prospect of a runoff with Walker came into focus.

Walker, for his part, aimed to cast Warnock as a rubber-stamp vote for the Joe Biden White House. Warnock, the former football star contended, has “forgotten about the people of Georgia”.

The contest between Warnock and Walker is one of a handful of unresolved midterm Senate races that could determine control of the chamber. Eyes across the nation were also on Nevada and Arizona on Wednesday.

In Nevada as of midday on Wednesday, with about 77% of the votes counted, Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto was trailing her Republican rival Adam Laxalt, 47.2% to 49.9%.

Cortez Masto is the first Latina senator. Laxalt is a former state attorney general who aided Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Both candidates have urged patience as residents wait to hear the outcome of the race and several other close elections, which could take days.

Democratic Senator from Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto arrives at a campaign event. Photograph: Caroline Brehman/EPA

“The votes are still being counted. We know this will take time and we won’t have more election results for several days,” Cortez Masto said at an election night gathering. “I am confident in the campaign that we have built to win.”

Laxalt said he was confident the results would favor him, telling supporters : “We are exactly where we want to be in this race.”

Meanwhile, Arizona’s Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly was ahead of his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, 51.4% to 46.4%, with 45% of the vote counted.

Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of ex-congressional representative Gabby Giffords, was elected to office in a 2020 special election that delivered both of Arizona’s Senate seats to Democrats for the first time in 70 years.

This year, he has a sizable edge among early votes cast in crucial Maricopa and Pima counties, but he is likely to see his lead tighten as more votes are tallied.

Masters, a venture capitalist endorsed by Trump, struggled throughout his campaign as he waffled between professing far-right ideologies and dialing back his most extreme views.

Once a Republican bastion, Arizona has recently become a closely watched swing state where close races can take weeks to tabulate. State law gives officials until 28 November to tally ballots.

Voters were expected to weigh economic concerns above most other issues. Phoenix, one of the fastest growing US cities, also has the highest inflation rate in the country. Kelly tried to distance himself from Joe Biden, whom six in 10 Arizona voters blame for inflation, according to AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 3,200 voters in the state.

The parties by Wednesday had split key races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

John Fetterman speaks during his midterm elections night party in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Photograph: Quinn Glabicki/Reuters

Pennsylvania’s Democratic lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, won a Senate seat up for grabs in his state over the Trump-backed Republican television personality Dr Mehmet Oz. An outgoing Republican held the seat, representing a flip in the Democrats’ favor.

In the meantime, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson held off a challenge from his Democratic opponent, Mandela Barnes.

As for the US House, many races there were still too close to call on Wednesday.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger and Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin scored narrow wins, keeping the party’s hopes alive of either retaining control of the lower congressional chambers or limiting Republican gains significantly more than initially predicted.

Maanvi Singh and Dani Anguiano contributed reporting

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2022 New York state legislative general election results

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 9, 2022

Democrats in the state Legislature are in for a close fight, as early returns on election night showed several incumbents in extremely tight races – including several potential surprise upsets.

While few of the state Legislature’s most competitive races were called as of 1 a.m. on Wednesday – and Suffolk County had yet to report any results – early tallies showed Democratic incumbents including state Sens. James Skoufis, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick, Pete Harckham, and Assembly Members Stacey Pheffer Amato, Mathylde Frontus and Peter Abbate Jr. with tight margins.

Democratic Assembly Member Steven Cymbrowitz and state Sen. John Brooks, meanwhile, trailed their Republican opponents by much more drastic margins.

With results slowly trickling in, these races are still in flux and a clear picture of the Legislature’s makeup is not yet evident. But much of the potential trouble for Democrats came from pockets of Brooklyn and the Lower Hudson Valley, where the party appeared to have underperformed.

After gaining a supermajority in the state Senate in 2020, Democrats have dominated the state Legislature. But initial election results show that Republicans have a good chance at picking off some of that edge. In their attempt to do so, Republican candidates have largely campaigned on inflation and crime – the top two issues for most voters heading to the polls.

After a chaotic redistricting process that led to a court-appointed special master redrawing new state Senate maps, Republicans are in a comparatively better position than the maps proposed by Democrats. However, compared to the previous maps based on the 2010 census, the Republican Party still finds itself in a tough position heading into Election Day – with many of their safe seats turned competitive. Long Island is home to several contentious races and a key battleground that Republicans are hoping to win. The new state Senate maps created lots of competitive races – pitting incumbents against one another, the potential for political comebacks and several open seats. And while the Assembly doesn’t have as many competitive races, there are still a few worth keeping an eye on.

These Democratic candidates have been declared as winners in the following state Senate races: Kevin Thomas (6), James Sanders Jr. (10), Michael Gianaris (12), Jessica Ramos (13), Leroy Comrie (14), Julia Salazar (18), Roxanne Persaud (19), Zellnor Myrie (20), Kevin Parker (21), Simcha Felder (22), Jabari Brisport (25), Andrew Gounardes (26), Brian Kavanagh (27), Liz Krueger (28), José M. Serrano (29), Cordell Cleare (30), Robert Jackson (31), Luis Sepúlveda (32), Gustavo Rivera (33), Andrea Stewart-Cousins (35), Jamaal Bailey (36), Shelley Mayer (37), Neil Breslin (46), Brad Hoylman (47), Samra Brouk (55), Kristen Gonzalez (59), Sean Ryan (61), Timothy Kennedy (63).

These Republican candidates have been declared as winners in the following state Senate races: Alexis Weik (8), Andrew Lanza (24), Dan Stec (45), Mark Walczyk (49), Joseph Griffo (53), Pamela Helming (54), Thomas O’Mara (58), Patrick Gallivan (60), Robert Ortt (62).

In addition to the competitive races that City & State New York is tracking on election night, these are the likely Democratic state Senate winners – with their district numbers in parentheses – of races that aren’t expected to be close: Toby Ann Stavisky (11), Joseph Addabbo (15), John Liu (16), Nathalia Fernandez (34), Rachel May (48).

These are the likely Republican state Senate winners of races that aren’t expected to be close: Dean Murray (3), Peter Oberacker (51), George Borrello (57).

For third-party abbreviations below, WFP is the Working Families Party, CON is the Conservative Party, IND is the Independence Party and MFP is the Medical Freedom Party.

Click here to view the statewide general election results and the congressional election results.

State Senate

1st District

Suffolk County

Incumbent: Anthony Palumbo (R)

Anthony Palumbo (R, CON): 54.83%

Skyler Johnson (D, WFP): 42.30%

With 208 of 211 election districts reported

2nd District

Suffolk County

Incumbent: Mario Mattera (R)

Mario Mattera (R, CON): 56.66%

Susan Berland (D, WFP): 40.85%

With 269 of 270 election districts reported

4th District

Suffolk County

Incumbent: Vacant, Republican Phil Boyle retired on Oct. 21

Monica Martinez (D, WFP): 49.18%

Wendy Rodriguez (R, CON): 46.85%

With 198 of 201 election districts reported

5th District

Nassau County

Incumbent: John Brooks (D)

Steven Rhoads (R, CON): 59.03%

John Brooks (D, WFP): 37.86%

With 257 of 257 election districts reported

7th District

Nassau County

Incumbent: Anna Kaplan (D)

Jack Martins (R, CON): 51.98%

Anna Kaplan (D, WFP): 45.45%

With 264 of 264 election districts reported

9th District

Nassau County

Incumbent: Vacant, Todd Kaminsky (D) resigned on July 29

Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick (R, CON): 53.84%

Kenneth Moore (D, WFP): 42.09%

With 246 of 246 election districts reported

17th District

Bensonhurst, Bay Ridge and Sunset Park, Brooklyn

Incumbent:

Iwen Chu (D, WFP): 48.30%

Vito LaBella (R, CON): 47.70%

With 123 of 123 election districts reported

23rd District

North Shore of Staten Island and Coney Island, Brooklyn

Incumbent: Diane Savino (D), who is not seeking reelection

Jessica Scarcella-Spanton (D): 49.01%

Joseph Tirone (R, CON): 46.38%

With 162 of 162 election districts reported

38th District

Rockland County

Incumbent: Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D)

Bill Weber (R, CON): 49.29%

Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D, WFP): 45.81%

With 286 of 286 election districts reported

39th District

Hudson Valley

Incumbent: James Skoufis (D) running in the 42nd District

Rob Rolison (R): 51.30%

Julie Shiroishi (D, WFP): 44.84%

With 261 of 261 election districts reported

40th District

Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties

Incumbent: Pete Harckham (D)

Pete Harckham (D, WFP): 53.26%

Gina Arena (R): 46.74%

With 350 of 355 election districts reported

41st District

Hudson Valley

Incumbents: Sue Serino (R), Michelle Hinchey (D), who were redistricted into the same seat

Michelle Hinchey (D, WFP): 51.63%

Sue Serino (R, CON, IND): 46.94%

With 297 of 297 election districts reported

42nd District

Orange County

Incumbent: James Skoufis (D)

James Skoufis (D, WFP): 48.95%

Dorey Houle (R, CON): 47.76%

With 275 of 275 election districts reported

43rd District

Rensselaer, Washington and Albany counties

Incumbent: Daphne Jordan (R), who dropped out due to redistricting

Jake Ashby (R, CON): 51.39%

Andrea Smyth (D, WFP): 45.47%

With 255 of 255 election districts reported

44th District

Saratoga and Schenectady counties

Incumbent: James Tedisco (R)

James Tedisco (R, CON): 55.98%

Michelle Ostrelich (D, WFP): 41.87%

With 248 of 248 election districts reported

50th District

Onondaga and Oswego counties

Incumbent: John Mannion (D)

Rebecca Shiroff (R, CON): 49.29%

John Mannion (D, WFP): 48.97%

With 289 of 289 election districts reported

52nd District

Tompkins, Cortland and Broome counties

Incumbent: Fred Akshar (R), running for Broome County sheriff

Lea Webb (D, WFP): 49.82%

Richard David (R, CON): 48.41%

With 222 of 222 election districts reported

56th District

Monroe County

Incumbent: Jeremy Cooney (D)

Jeremy Cooney (D, WFP): 52.73%

Jim VanBrederode (R, CON, IND): 44.95%

With 0 of 340 election districts reported

Assembly

District 15

Northeastern Nassau County

Incumbent: Michael Montesano (R), who is running for Nassau County District Court judge

Jake Blumencranz (R, CON): 55.47%

Amanda Field (D): 40.33%

With 112 of 112 election districts reported

District 21

Malverne, Lynbrook and Rockville Centre, Nassau County

Incumbent: Judy Griffin (D)

Judy Griffin (D): 48.33%

Brian Curran (R, CON): 48.85%

With 117 of 117 election districts reported

District 23

Howard Beach and Rockaway, Queens

Incumbent: Stacey Pheffer Amato (D)

Tom Sullivan (R, CON): 49.24%

Stacey Pheffer Amato (D): 48.44%

With 105 of 105 election districts reported

District 30

Elmhurst and Woodside, Queens

Incumbent: Brian Barnwell (D), who is not seeking reelection

Steven Raga (D): 54.55%

Sean Lally (R, MFP): 39.63%

With 70 of 70 election districts reported

District 45

Gravesend and Brighton Beach, Brooklyn

Incumbent: Steven Cymbrowitz (D)

Michael Novakhov (R, CON): 58.20%

Steven Cymbrowitz (D, IND): 38.25%

With 54 of 54 election districts reported

District 46

Bay Ridge, Fort Hamilton and Coney Island, Brooklyn

Incumbent: Mathylde Frontus (D)

Alec Brook-Krasny (R, CON): 49.11%

Mathylde Frontus (D, WFP): 46.32%

With 76 of 76 election districts reported

District 49

Dyker Heights, Bath Beach, Bensonhurst and Borough Park, Brooklyn

Incumbent: Peter Abbate Jr. (D)

Lester Chang (R, CON): 50.29%

Peter Abbate Jr. (D): 45.61%

With 52 of 52 election districts reported

District 63

Mid-Island, Staten Island

Incumbent: Michael Cusick (D), who is not seeking reelection

Sam Pirozzolo (R, CON): 53.54%

Vincent Argenziano (D, I): 44.22%

With 77 of 77 election districts reported

District 73

Upper East Side, Manhattan

Incumbent: Dan Quart (D), who is not seeking reelection

Alex Bores (D, WFP): 71.08%

David Casavis (R): 25.10%

With 71 of 71 election districts reported

District 90

Yonkers

Incumbent: Nader Sayegh (D)

Nader Sayegh (D, Fair Deal): 47.97%

Michael Breen (R, CON): 46.89%

With 163 of 166 election districts reported

District 97

Rockland County

Incumbent: Mike Lawler (R), who is running for Congress in the 17th District

John McGowan (R, CON): 61.35%

Eudson Tyson Francois (D): 30.33%

With 106 of 106 election districts reported

District 99

Orange and Rockland counties

Incumbent: Colin Schmitt (R), who is running for Congress in the 18th District

Christopher Eachus (D): 47.52%

Kathryn Luciani (R, CON): 47.47%

With 100 of 100 election districts reported

District 113

Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties

Incumbent: Carrie Woerner (D)

Carrie Woerner (D): 51.22%

David Catalfamo (R, CON): 46.99%

With 110 of 110 election districts reported

District 135

East Rochester and Pittsford

Incumbent: Jennifer Lunsford (D)

Jennifer Lunsford (D, WFP): 54.41%

Joseph Chenelly (R, CON): 44.10%

With 0 of 148 election districts reported