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Andrew Cuomo’s criminal sexual assault charges dropped

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 5, 2022

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Bernadette Hogan | New York Post.

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ALBANY xe2x80x94 Andrew Cuomo appears to be spending his winter skating xe2x80x94 at least when it comes to legal charges.

The criminal sexual assault case against the disgraced former governor was dropped Tuesday by the Albany County district attorney.

xe2x80x9cAlbany County District Attorney David Soares announced today that a thorough and independent review of the investigation into the allegations against former Governor Andrew Cuomo has concluded,xe2x80x9d the DAxe2x80x99s office said in a statement.

xe2x80x9cWhile many have an opinion regarding the allegations against the former Governor, the Albany County DAxe2x80x99s Office is the only one who has a burden to prove the elements of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt. While we found the complainant in this case cooperative and credible, after review of all the available evidence we have concluded that we cannot meet our burden at trial,xe2x80x9d Soaresxe2x80x99 statement said.

xe2x80x9cAs such we have notified the Court that we are declining to prosecute this matter and requesting the charges filed by the Albany County Sheriff be dismissed.xe2x80x9d

Itxe2x80x99s the latest in a series of fortunate breaks for the run-out-of-office Cuomo.

On Monday, it was revealed that the Manhattan District Attorneyxe2x80x99s Office had dropped its probe into Cuomo over allegations he mishandled nursing homes during the initial coronavirus outbreak.

And last week, Cuomo was let off the hook by the Westchester County district attorney for inappropriately touching a female state trooper and kissing a random woman during separate incidents while he was in office.

Sources confirmed Brittany Commisso xe2x80x94 the former Cuomo staffer and current state worker who filed the criminal complaint against Cuomo with the Albany Sheriffxe2x80x99s Office for groping her in the Executive Mansion in Albany xe2x80x94 met with the Albany DAxe2x80x99s office on Monday and was told the office would not prosecute the case.

xe2x80x9cI, like most New Yorkers, remain deeply troubled by allegations like the ones at issue here. Such conduct has no place in government or in any workplace. Although avenues for criminal prosecution in these cases are sometimes limited, I encourage victims of workplace harassment and abuse to continue to come forward and bring these issues to light so that these important discussions can continue,xe2x80x9d said Soares.

xe2x80x9cThe decision to discontinue criminal prosecution is unrelated to any possible civil liability, which is beyond the scope of a District Attorneyxe2x80x99s jurisdiction.xe2x80x9d

Cuomo was due to be arraigned in court at 1:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 7.

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xe2x80x9cIn this case my client had no control over the filing or prosecution of criminal charges. She had no authority or voice in those decisions. The only thing she has any power over is her resolution to continue to speak the truth and seek justice in an appropriate civil action, which she will do in due course,xe2x80x9d said Commissoxe2x80x99s lawyer Brian Premo in a text message to The Post.

Facing threat of impeachment, Cuomo resigned in August xe2x80x94 a week after state Attorney General Letitia James released a 168-page bombshell report accusing him of harassing 11 women, including nine current or former state employees

Commissoxe2x80x99s claims against the governor were included in the report, though the timing of the alleged grope was left hazy, as it said in one section that it happened on Nov. 16, but also included a footnote saying that Commisso couldnxe2x80x99t remember the exact date.

Cuomoxe2x80x99s personal attorney, Rita Glavin, has tried to dismiss Commissoxe2x80x99s allegations by attacking the discrepancy in the timeline included in the Jamesxe2x80x99 report.

However, data obtained by the Assembly Judiciary Committee, which investigated the claims against Cuomo, clarified the timeline, specifically with a December text that Commisso had helped the governor send to another aide around the time of the alleged incident.

Multiple requests for comment made to the Albany County Sheriffxe2x80x99s Office were not returned to The Post.

A representative for Cuomo could not be reached for immediate comment.

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

«Российский хакер со связями в Кремле» Так американская пресса называет Владислава Клюшина, пополнившего список российских хакеров, выданных США

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 4, 2022

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xd0xa4xd0xbexd0xbexd1x82: Samuel Corum / Getty Images

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xd0x98xd0xb2xd0xb0xd0xbd xd0x95xd1x80xd0xbcxd0xb0xd0xbaxd0xbexd0xb2, xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb7xd1x8bxd1x81xd0xbaxd0xb8xd0xb2xd0xb0xd0xb5xd0xbcxd1x8bxd0xb9 xd0xa4xd0x91xd0xa0. xd0xa4xd0xbexd1x82xd0xbe: justice.gov

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Артем Клюшин – русский хакер на службе в администрации президента.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 4, 2022

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<a href=”https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1996025643757650&id=100000507009523″ rel=”nofollow”>https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1996025643757650&id=100000507009523</a>

“xd0x98xd0xb7xd0xb2xd0xb5xd1x81xd1x82xd0xbdxd0xbe, xd1x87xd1x82xd0xbe xd1x81xd0xb5xd0xbcxd0xb5xd0xb9xd0xbdxd0xb0xd1x8f xd0xbfxd0xb0xd1x80xd0xb0 (xd0xbexd0xbdxd0xb8 xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb7xd0xb2xd0xb5xd0xbbxd0xb8xd1x81xd1x8c xd0xb2 2014 xd0xb3xd0xbexd0xb4xd1x83) xd1x81xd0xbexd1x81xd1x82xd0xbexd0xb8xd1x82 xd0xb2 xd0xb1xd0xbbxd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xbaxd0xb8xd1x85 xd0xbexd1x82xd0xbdxd0xbexd1x88xd0xb5xd0xbdxd0xb8xd1x8fxd1x85 xd1x81 xd0xbaxd0xbbxd0xb0xd0xbdxd0xbexd0xbc xd0x90xd0xb3xd0xb0xd0xbbxd0xb0xd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2xd1x8bxd1x85 xd0xb8 xd0xb1xd1x8bxd0xbbxd0xb0 xd0xbexd0xb4xd0xbdxd0xb8xd0xbc xd0xb8xd0xb7 xd0xbexd1x80xd0xb3xd0xb0xd0xbdxd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xb0xd1x82xd0xbexd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2 xd0xb2xd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xb8xd1x82xd0xb0 xd0x94xd0xbexd0xbdxd0xb0xd0xbbxd1x8cxd0xb4xd0xb0 xd0xa2xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xbcxd0xbfxd0xb0 ( Donald John Trump ) xd0xb2 xd0x9cxd0xbexd1x81xd0xbaxd0xb2xd1x83 xd0xb2 2013 xd0xb3xd0xbexd0xb4xd1x83 xd0xbdxd0xb0 Miss Universe Pageant. xd0xa2xd0xb0xd0xba, xd0xb2 xd0xb8xd1x8exd0xbdxd0xb5 2013 xd0xb3xd0xbexd0xb4xd0xb0 xd0xa2xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xbcxd0xbf xd0xbfxd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2xd0xb5xd0xbb xd1x87xd0xb0xd1x81xd1x82xd0xbdxd1x8bxd0xb9 xd1x83xd0xb6xd0xb8xd0xbd xd0xb2 xd0x9bxd0xb0xd1x81-xd0x92xd0xb5xd0xb3xd0xb0xd1x81xd0xb5 xd1x81 xd0x90xd0xb3xd0xb0xd0xbbxd0xb0xd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2xd1x8bxd0xbc, xd0x90xd0xbbxd1x84xd0xb5xd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2xd0xbexd0xb9 xd0xb8 xd0x9axd0xbbxd1x8exd1x88xd0xb8xd0xbdxd1x8bxd0xbc, xd1x87xd1x82xd0xbexd0xb1xd1x8b xd0xb4xd0xbexd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb1xd0xbexd1x82xd0xb0xd1x82xd1x8c xd0xb4xd0xb5xd1x82xd0xb0xd0xbbxd0xb8 xd0xbfxd0xbexd0xb5xd0xb7xd0xb4xd0xbaxd0xb8.

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n xd0x9fxd0x95xd0xa2xd0xa0 xd0x98xd0x92xd0x90xd0x9dxd0x9exd0x92
n xd0xa2xd0x95xd0xa0xd0xa0xd0x98xd0xa2xd0x9exd0xa0xd0x98xd0xaf xd0xadxd0x9bxd0x98xd0xa2

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Who really is Vladislav Klyushin? Who is Artyom (or Artem) Klyushin, who reportedly “gave Trump instructions via Tweets”? Is this the same person? – Russia News Review

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 4, 2022

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Russia News Review.

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The more I read, on the Web of course, about Vladislav Klyushin, the more confusing and murky it becomes, possibly by the deliberate design (of the GRU?).xc2xa0

The following is the list of the Google Search terms, the only sorce of the publicly available information.xc2xa0

Who really isxc2xa0Vladislav Klyushin?xc2xa0

Who isxc2xa0Artyom Klyushinxc2xa0(also spelledxc2xa0Artem Klyushin), who reportedly xe2x80x9cgave Trump instructions via Tweetsxe2x80x9c? Seexc2xa0Debunking the Artem Klyushin Mystique.xc2xa0

They look similar.xc2xa0

Is this the same person?xc2xa0

Are they related, e.g. brothers, etc.?xc2xa0

Who is Yulia Alferova-Klyushina, in whom Trump reportedlyxc2xa0 was romantically interested during his visit to Moscow? Yulia and Artem were breifly married specifically around the time of this visit.xc2xa0

What are the Vladislav Klyushinxe2x80x99s (and/or Artemxe2x80x99s) relations with Alexey Gromov?xc2xa0

Many other questions, it is difficult to list them all, I have to leave this exercise for later. We need clarity on these issues.xc2xa0

Michael Novakhov (Mike Nova) | 12:18 PM 1/4/2022

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Отпустили почирикать … Значит это было кому-то нужно? Кому и зачем? | The draft for the Group Portrait with the focus on Vladislav Klyushin: They sent him to Amertica to chirp (but not to tweet any more) and sing. Does this mean, that someone in the Kremlin needed to do that? Why, and what for? What is their plan and strategy?

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 4, 2022

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from The News And Times.

b’

xd0x9exd1x82xd0xbfxd1x83xd1x81xd1x82xd0xb8xd0xbbxd0xb8 xd0xbfxd0xbexd1x87xd0xb8xd1x80xd0xb8xd0xbaxd0xb0xd1x82xd1x8c …

xd0x97xd0xbdxd0xb0xd1x87xd0xb8xd1x82 xd1x8dxd1x82xd0xbe xd0xb1xd1x8bxd0xbbxd0xbe xd0xbaxd0xbexd0xbcxd1x83-xd1x82xd0xbe xd0xbdxd1x83xd0xb6xd0xbdxd0xbe?xc2xa0

xd0x9axd0xbexd0xbcxd1x83 xd0xb8 xd0xb7xd0xb0xd1x87xd0xb5xd0xbc?

The draft for the Group Portrait with the focus on Vladislav Klyushin: They sent him to Amertica to chirp (but not to tweet any more) and sing. Does this mean, that someone in the Kremlin needed to do that? Why, and what for? What is their plan and strategy?xc2xa0

Tweetsxc2xa0byxc2xa0xe2x80x8e@mikenov

Michael Novakhov@mikenov

xd0x90xd1x80xd1x82xd1x91xd0xbc xd0x9axd0xbbxd1x8exd1x88xd0xb8xd0xbd xd0xb8 xd0xadxd0xbcxd0xb8xd0xbd xd0x90xd0xb3xd0xb0xd0xbbxd0xb0xd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2 – Google Search https://shar.es/aWKJCe

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Lenta.ru : Новости: Стало известно о доступе бизнесмена Клюшина к данным о спецоперациях ГРУ – Russia News Review

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 3, 2022

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Russia News Review.

b’

xd0xa0xd0xbexd1x81xd1x81xd0xb8xd0xb9xd1x81xd0xbaxd0xb8xd0xb9 xd0xb1xd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xbdxd0xb5xd1x81xd0xbcxd0xb5xd0xbd xd0x92xd0xbbxd0xb0xd0xb4xd0xb8xd1x81xd0xbbxd0xb0xd0xb2 xd0x9axd0xbbxd1x8exd1x88xd0xb8xd0xbd, xd0xbaxd0xbexd1x82xd0xbexd1x80xd1x8bxd0xb9 xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xbdxd0xb5xd0xb5 xd0xb1xd1x8bxd0xbb xd1x8dxd0xbaxd1x81xd1x82xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb4xd0xb8xd1x80xd0xbexd0xb2xd0xb0xd0xbd xd0xb8xd0xb7 xd0xa8xd0xb2xd0xb5xd0xb9xd1x86xd0xb0xd1x80xd0xb8xd0xb8 xd0xb2 xd0xa1xd0xa8xd0x90, xd0xb8xd0xbcxd0xb5xd0xbb xd0xb4xd0xbexd1x81xd1x82xd1x83xd0xbf xd0xba xd0xb4xd0xb0xd0xbdxd0xbdxd1x8bxd0xbc xd0xbe xd1x81xd0xb5xd0xbaxd1x80xd0xb5xd1x82xd0xbdxd1x8bxd1x85 xd0xb7xd0xb0xd1x80xd1x83xd0xb1xd0xb5xd0xb6xd0xbdxd1x8bxd1x85 xd0xbexd0xbfxd0xb5xd1x80xd0xb0xd1x86xd0xb8xd1x8fxd1x85 xd0x93xd0xbbxd0xb0xd0xb2xd0xbdxd0xbexd0xb3xd0xbe xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb7xd0xb2xd0xb5xd0xb4xd1x8bxd0xb2xd0xb0xd1x82xd0xb5xd0xbbxd1x8cxd0xbdxd0xbexd0xb3xd0xbe xd1x83xd0xbfxd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb2xd0xbbxd0xb5xd0xbdxd0xb8xd1x8f (xd0x93xd0xa0xd0xa3) xd0x93xd0xb5xd0xbdxd1x88xd1x82xd0xb0xd0xb1xd0xb0 xd0xa0xd0xa4. xd0x9exd0xb1 xd1x8dxd1x82xd0xbexd0xbc xd1x81xd1x82xd0xb0xd0xbbxd0xbe xd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xb2xd0xb5xd1x81xd1x82xd0xbdxd0xbe Bloomberg xd0xbexd1x82 xd0xb8xd1x81xd1x82xd0xbexd1x87xd0xbdxd0xb8xd0xbaxd0xbexd0xb2, xd0xb1xd0xbbxd0xb8xd0xb7xd0xbaxd0xb8xd1x85 xd0xba xd0x9axd1x80xd0xb5xd0xbcxd0xbbxd1x8e xd0xb8 xd1x80xd0xbexd1x81xd1x81xd0xb8xd0xb9xd1x81xd0xbaxd0xbexd0xb9 xd1x80xd0xb0xd0xb7xd0xb2xd0xb5xd0xb4xd0xbaxd0xb5.

Lenta.ru : xd0x9dxd0xbexd0xb2xd0xbexd1x81xd1x82xd0xb8

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

U.S. nabs highest-ranking Kremlin insider ‘in recent memory’

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date January 3, 2022

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Kerry Eleveld.

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xe2x80x9cYou may be seeing the signs that they are continuing to pursue this case, with real big implications for exposing in even greater detail what the Russians did to influence the outcome of our election,xe2x80x9d said Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia in the Obama administration.

According to the insider trading indictment, Klyushin’s IT company, M-13,xc2xa0worked for the Russian presidency and governmental agencies. Also named in the indictment was Ivan Yermakov, a former military intelligence official who was indicted in 2018 as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in 2016.

But the intriguing part of Klyushin’s capture in Switzerland may be that he traveled there at all.

Bloomberg reports that Klyushin was “approached by U.S. and U.K. spy agencies in the two years before his exit from Russia and received heightened levels of security in Switzerland.” He also curiously failed to make a final appeal challenging his extradition to the U.S. after both U.S. and Russianxc2xa0officials had been competing to win his extradition from Switzerland following his arrest there.

xe2x80x9cIt underscores the risk that anybody, billionaires or others close to the Russian state, face when they break American laws if they travel abroad,xe2x80x9d McFaul noted.

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Russia tells NATO to leave eastern Europe | Illawarra Mercury

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 31, 2021

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Illawarra Mercury – The Border Mail Local News.

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Russia says it wants to negotiate a legally binding guarantee that the NATO military alliance would give up any military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine. The demands form a package that Russia says is an essential requirement for lowering tensions in Europe and defusing a crisis over Ukraine, which other countries have accused Russia of sizing up for a potential attack – something it has denied. They also contained elements – such as an effective Russian veto on NATO membership for Ukraine – that the US and its allies have already ruled out. Presenting the demands in detail for the first time, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Russia and NATO must start from a clean sheet in rebuilding relations. “The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous,” he said. “Washington and its NATO allies should immediately stop regular hostile actions against our country, including unscheduled exercises… and manoeuvres of military ships and planes, and stop the military development of Ukrainian territory.” Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London, said on Twitter that President Vladimir Putin was “drawing a line around the post-Soviet space and planting a ‘keep out’ sign”. “It’s not meant to be a treaty: it’s a declaration,” he said. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean this is a prelude to war. It’s a justification for keeping Moscow’s hair-trigger stance, in order to keep Washington and others off balance. Question is, how long can that be maintained, before it loses its efficacy?” Ryabkov said Russia was not willing to put up with the current situation any more. He urged the United States to take the proposals seriously and come up with a constructive response fast. Ryabkov said Russia was ready to start talks as soon as Saturday, with Geneva a possible venue, and that its negotiating team was ready. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the United States had seen the proposals and was speaking to allies. “There will be no talks on European security without our European allies and partners,” Psaki told reporters. Russian news agency TASS quoted Ryabkov as saying later that his government was extremely disappointed by the signals coming from the United States and NATO. Russia handed over its proposals to the US earlier this week amid soaring tensions over a build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine. It says it is responding to what it sees as threats to its own security from Ukraine’s increasingly close relations with NATO and aspirations to join the alliance although there is no imminent prospect of Ukraine being allowed to join. The Russian proposals were set out in two documents – a draft agreement with NATO countries and a draft treaty with the United States, both published by the foreign ministry. Important points of the two documents include: – To rule out further NATO expansion and Ukraine’s accession to the alliance – Not to deploy additional troops and weapons outside the countries in which they were in May 1997 (before any eastern European countries joined the alliance) except in exceptional cases with the consent of Russia and NATO members – To abandon any NATO military activities in Ukraine, eastern Europe, the Caucasus and central Asia – Not to deploy intermediate and shorter-range missiles where they can hit the territory of the other side – Not to conduct exercises with more than one military brigade in an agreed border zone, and to regularly exchange information about military exercises – To confirm that the parties do not consider each other as adversaries, and agree to resolve all disputes peacefully and refrain from the use of force – To commit not to create conditions that might be perceived as a threat by the other party – To create hotlines for emergency contacts – To agree that neither Russia nor the United States may deploy nuclear weapons outside their own territories. Australian Associated Press

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Russia says it wants to negotiate a legally binding guarantee that the NATO military alliance would give up any military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine.

The demands form a package that Russia says is an essential requirement for lowering tensions in Europe and defusing a crisis over Ukraine, which other countries have accused Russia of sizing up for a potential attack – something it has denied.

They also contained elements – such as an effective Russian veto on NATO membership for Ukraine – that the US and its allies have already ruled out.

Presenting the demands in detail for the first time, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Russia and NATO must start from a clean sheet in rebuilding relations.

“The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous,” he said.

“Washington and its NATO allies should immediately stop regular hostile actions against our country, including unscheduled exercises… and manoeuvres of military ships and planes, and stop the military development of Ukrainian territory.”

Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London, said on Twitter that President Vladimir Putin was “drawing a line around the post-Soviet space and planting a ‘keep out’ sign”.

“It’s not meant to be a treaty: it’s a declaration,” he said.

“But that doesn’t necessarily mean this is a prelude to war. It’s a justification for keeping Moscow’s hair-trigger stance, in order to keep Washington and others off balance. Question is, how long can that be maintained, before it loses its efficacy?”

Ryabkov said Russia was not willing to put up with the current situation any more.

He urged the United States to take the proposals seriously and come up with a constructive response fast.

Ryabkov said Russia was ready to start talks as soon as Saturday, with Geneva a possible venue, and that its negotiating team was ready.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the United States had seen the proposals and was speaking to allies.

“There will be no talks on European security without our European allies and partners,” Psaki told reporters.

Russian news agency TASS quoted Ryabkov as saying later that his government was extremely disappointed by the signals coming from the United States and NATO.

Russia handed over its proposals to the US earlier this week amid soaring tensions over a build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine.

It says it is responding to what it sees as threats to its own security from Ukraine’s increasingly close relations with NATO and aspirations to join the alliance although there is no imminent prospect of Ukraine being allowed to join.

The Russian proposals were set out in two documents – a draft agreement with NATO countries and a draft treaty with the United States, both published by the foreign ministry.

Important points of the two documents include:

– To rule out further NATO expansion and Ukraine’s accession to the alliance

– Not to deploy additional troops and weapons outside the countries in which they were in May 1997 (before any eastern European countries joined the alliance) except in exceptional cases with the consent of Russia and NATO members

– To abandon any NATO military activities in Ukraine, eastern Europe, the Caucasus and central Asia

– Not to deploy intermediate and shorter-range missiles where they can hit the territory of the other side

– Not to conduct exercises with more than one military brigade in an agreed border zone, and to regularly exchange information about military exercises

– To confirm that the parties do not consider each other as adversaries, and agree to resolve all disputes peacefully and refrain from the use of force

– To commit not to create conditions that might be perceived as a threat by the other party

– To create hotlines for emergency contacts

– To agree that neither Russia nor the United States may deploy nuclear weapons outside their own territories.

Australian Associated Press

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Biden and Putin speak amid fears of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 30, 2021

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from GANNETT Syndication Service.

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WASHINGTON xe2x80x93xc2xa0President Joe Bidenxc2xa0spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for nearly an hour Thursday amid growing concerns over Moscow’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine.xc2xa0

Biden told Putin that the United States and its allies “will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine,xe2x80x9d White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement released after the phone call.xc2xa0

A senior administration official said Biden told Putin he has two options: diplomacy leading to de-escalation or further aggression leading to xe2x80x9cserious costs and consequences.xe2x80x9d

The possible consequences include economic sanctions, adjustments of NATO forces in allied nations and additional assistance to Ukraine to defend its territory, said the official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity.

The White House has repeatedlyxc2xa0warned Russia against invading its neighborxc2xa0xe2x80x94 with a senior administration official labeling the situation a “moment of crisis” Wednesdayxc2xa0xe2x80x94 and Bidenxe2x80x99s call with Putin marked a new test of American diplomacy and leadership.xc2xa0

xe2x80x9cBiden is under pressure to show results and to show whether the United States, with its allies, can deter Russia and get it to step down from this build up,xe2x80x9d said Angela Stent, director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University.

Biden’s call with Putin lasted roughly 50 minutes, ending at 4:25 p.m. EST, according to the White House.

Russia has ramped up its military presencexc2xa0along Ukraine’s eastern border over the past several months. Biden and America’s Westernxc2xa0allies have said they will impose tough economic sanctions against Russia if its aggression against Ukraine escalates.

Ukraine declaredxc2xa0independencexc2xa0from the former Soviet Union in 1991, and it is now a fledgling democracy with a pro-Western tilt.xc2xa0U.S. foreign policy experts say it is in Americaxe2x80x99s interest to stave off Russian aggression, particularly as Putin looks to rebuild the Soviet empire.

Russia annexed thexc2xa0Crimean peninsulaxc2xa0in 2014, a swath of Ukrainianxc2xa0territory located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The Kremlin has continued to try to undermine the countryxe2x80x99s sovereignty, militarily and in other ways.

The White House has previously said discussions with Russia would be more productive if Putin withdraws some of thexc2xa0estimated 100,000 Russian troops from Ukraine’s border.xc2xa0However, troop presence has remained consistent, worrying the White House.

What is happening at Ukraine’s border?:Putin’s buildup of Russian troops sparks concern

Biden and Putinxe2x80x99s call camexc2xa0ahead of a bilateral meeting between U.S. and Russian officials scheduled for Jan. 10.xc2xa0That same week, there will also be meetings between NATO and Russia, as well as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, where Ukraine will be present.

The administration official said Biden viewed his conversation with Putin on Thursday as an opportunity to lay the groundwork for the upcoming January meetings.xc2xa0

xe2x80x9cBoth leaders acknowledged that there were likely to be areas where we could make meaningful progress,xe2x80x9d the official said.

Putin has said he wantsxc2xa0the U.S. and Western allies to not allow Ukraine to join NATO xe2x80x94 a move he argues would pose a threat to Russian security. The Russian leader has also demanded that NATO no longer station troops orxc2xa0military equipment in countries that were formerly part of thexc2xa0Soviet Union.

xe2x80x9cWe have made it clear that any further movement of NATO to the East is unacceptable,xe2x80x9d Putin said at a news conference on Dec. 23. xe2x80x9cIs there anything unclear about this? Are we deploying missiles near the US border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep.”xc2xa0

Biden held a high-stakes video teleconference with Putin earlier this month, where he emphasized that he preferred a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine. However, the president warned that if Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. would send additional defense resources to Ukraine and would look to deploy additional forces to fortify its NATO allies in the area.

Contributing: Michael Collins, Matthew Brown and Joey Garrison

Reach Rebecca Morin at Twitter @RebeccaMorin_

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Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks℠

Russia May Underestimate Ukraine and NATO

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 30, 2021

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from The RAND Blog.

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Moscow has unveiled outlandish security demands which sound aggressive and suggest that it may underestimate both NATO and Ukraine. Although any new Russian invasion could be devastating, they must prepare for the possibility.

The Brezhnev-era Kremlin underestimated the West. In the late 1970s, the USSR began deploying SS-20 theater-range ballistic missiles aimed at Europe and Japan. Despite Moscow’s fierce campaign (PDF) of propaganda, disinformation, and intimidation, NATO responded by deploying in Europe missiles of comparable range. Having failed to scare NATO into submission, hidebound Soviet leaders lost face. Then a liberalizing leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, came to power and agreed with President Ronald Reagan to ban both sides’ missiles.

Soviet leaders in the xe2x80x9cera of stagnationxe2x80x9d may have believed their own false propaganda that the West was weak and disunited. Today’s Kremlin may be making the same mistake.

On December 17, Moscow publicized proposed demands which would in effect require the United States to withdraw from Europe and NATO to collapse. Only a day later, the Kremlin said it might xe2x80x9cup the ante.xe2x80x9d Nonetheless, on December 21 U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan said the United States was ready for talks in xe2x80x9cfull coordination with our European allies and partners.xe2x80x9d

In his December 23 press conference, Putin said he had xe2x80x9cso far seen a positive reactionxe2x80x9d to Moscow’s proposals, but satellite photos show that in mid-December Russia was still deploying more tanks, short-range ballistic missiles, and other arms near Ukraine.

Russia’s demands would force the United States to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and forego deployment of theater-range missiles, even though such weapons could be deployed in European Russia. Proposed accords would ban NATO from admitting any xe2x80x9cformer Soviet republicxe2x80x9d even though NATO has rejected such a ban. They would require that NATO withdraw infrastructure in its eastern members, but the heightened Russian threat to Ukraine may spur NATO to do the opposite. Evidently anxious about popular uprisings against its rule, the Kremlin also demands a ban on xe2x80x9cactions aimed at changing the political or social order.xe2x80x9d

Putin hinted that the purpose of new unrealistic demands was to help create a justification for war.

The Kremlin knows how to negotiate constructively, as it did successfully when it achieved the New START Treaty and the Iran nuclear agreement. On December 21, President Vladimir Putin hinted that the purpose of the new unrealistic demands was to help create a justification for war: xe2x80x9cIf our Western counterparts continue a clearly aggressive line, we will undertake proportionate military-technical countermeasures.xe2x80x9d

Thus, NATO might be wise to consider that Russia could launch a wider invasion of Ukraine. Wars always bring uncertainties, but several considerations could be relevant.

First, any attempt to seize a large area east of the Dnipro River, including such cities as Karkhiv, Dnipro, and Odessa, and possibly Kyiv, would pose a major military operational challenge and take time. Looking at a notional scenario of an invasion by 130,000 Russian troops, RAND found that the operation would take xe2x80x9cweeks, if not months, to fully develop and execute.xe2x80x9d And an invasion could meet resistance and incur heavy casualties.

Second, in 2014 Russian invaders faced a disorganized but determined Ukrainian opposition, but this time they would confront a better trained, armed, and motivated fighting force. Even a Russian xe2x80x9cshock and awexe2x80x9d assaultxe2x80x94mass cyber and electronic attacks, and a multi-front combined arms operationxe2x80x94might not easily carry the day.

Ukraine’s defenses could be stressed but still slow invaders. Many Ukrainian commanders and soldiers are battle-hardened from the seven-year war in the Donbas. To reduce risks from drone attacks, some Ukrainian forces could disperse in small squads on ATVs or other mobile platforms. Equipped with precision-guided mortars, guided anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, and loitering munitions, mobile forces could frustrate some Russian battle plans.

Third, if Ukraine were at risk of being overrun or if adjacent NATO allies were threatened, NATO might intervene. As in the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Israel was threatened with potential defeat, the United States could airlift military aid. Washington has not provided Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which could down Russian helicopters and low-flying fixed-wing aircraft, but in an extreme scenario it might do so. Although Biden says that providing U.S. troops is xe2x80x9cnot on the table,xe2x80x9d in compelling circumstances NATO could unleash formidable air and naval power.

Fourth, the Kremlin might be tempted think that fears of a widened war or of attacks by cyber weapons, long-range precision-guided missiles, or even limited use of nonstrategic nuclear forces would deter NATO from intervening militarily. These concerns might be a factor, but the alliance has prepared to respond to aggression with its own tools of coercion. For example, it could mount cyber assaults that disrupt Russia’s economy and financial system and military logistics for its fighters in Ukraine.

The Kremlin may err if it thinks Ukraine or NATO would easily submit to aggression.

Fifth, Ukraine could mount a longer-term insurgency against Russian occupiers, which might be stretched thin or rely partly on ill-trained conscripts. On December 19, The Washington Post said the Biden administration was exploring ways to aid guerillas. An insurgency might be sustainable if Ukraine west of the Dnipro River or an adjacent NATO member state were to be a sanctuary and source of resupply. At the same time, Russian reactions to armed resistance could be xe2x80x9cswift, direct, and brutal.xe2x80x9d

The Kremlin may err if it thinks Ukraine or NATO would easily submit to aggression. The hour is late, but Kremlin leaders might consider instead seeking a stable European security architecture that protects Russia’s interests while also allowing for a vibrant and sovereign Ukraine.

William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, and was U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and a U.S.-Soviet commission to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. Peter A. Wilson is an adjunct international/defense researcher at RAND.

This commentary originally appeared on Moscow Times on December 27, 2021. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.

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