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JPMorgan reports a Q4 earnings beat – but CEO Jamie Dimon warns of economic uncertainty ahead

P Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon looks on during the inauguration of the new French headquarters of US' JP Morgan bank on June 29, 2021 in ParisJPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon.

Michel Euler/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

  • JPMorgan published fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s forecasts Friday.
  • Shares fell 2.2% in premarket trading after the earnings were released.
  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of further economic uncertainty from the war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign.

JPMorgan Chase reported fourth-quarter earnings Friday that beat Wall Street forecasts.

Shares of the biggest US bank fell 2.2% in premarket trading after the earnings release, which covered the three months up until December 31.

JPMorgan reported managed revenues of $35.6 billion, beating Refinitiv consensus estimates of $34.3 billion, and earnings-per-share of $3.57, significantly outperforming the $3.06 figure that analysts had expected.

The bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon said consumers’ pandemic-era savings are propping up the US economy for now – but warned that both the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign to quell inflation make the longer-term outlook less certain.

“The US economy currently remains strong with consumers still spending excess cash and businesses healthy,” Dimon said. “However, we still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming from geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, the vulnerable state of energy and food supplies, persistent inflation that is eroding purchasing power and has pushed interest rates higher, and the unprecedented quantitative tightening.”

JPMorgan is seen as a bellwether stock – meaning its earnings reflect the US’s overall economic health. The Wall Street bank’s fourth-quarter update shows how it’s coping with soaring inflation and rising interest rates, which weighed heavily on economic growth in 2022.

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Bank earnings are under way. Here are the biggest storylines everyone on Wall Street is focused on.

Wishing you a spooky Friday the 13th! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC, and I’m laughing at how silly corporate America is when it comes to ridiculous C-level titles.

Fun-Fact Friday: The iconic green code in ‘The Matrix’ is actually just sushi recipes.

On tap, we’ve got stories about the newest class of managing directors at a big bank, why there might not be a recession after all, and a big change to the Delta Sky Club.

But first, we’ve got bank earnings.


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gamblingA croupier waits for gamblers at a table inside the Marina Bay Sands casino in Singapore April 27, 2010.

Reuters/Pablo Sanchez

1. Place your bets. 

Starting today, the six big US banks (Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo) report their Q4 and year-end earnings. 

If you’re interested in instant feedback on the actual numbers, check our colleagues over on Markets Insider. 

For me, earnings calls are where the juiciest stuff is. But instead of a boring preview on what to expect, I figured I’d have some fun by setting gambling lines on some of the biggest storylines heading into earnings.  

A quick refresher on betting: If the odds of something to occur are +110, that means a $100 bet wins you $110 in profit. On the flip side, if something is -110 that means you need to wager $110 for a $100 profit.

So a line set at +500 would be a massive longshot ($100 bet wins you $500 in profit) and a -500 line is a huge favorite ($500 bet only wins you $100).

Does that make sense? If not, I’m starting to question how you work in finance.

OK, let’s get into the biggest storylines and their odds:

David Solomon discusses the recent headcount reduction at Goldman Sachs. (-500)

Background: Solomon will almost certainly field questions about this week’s layoffs, which impacted around 6.5% of the bank’s total headcount. What’ll be interesting is if he teases even more cuts coming down the line as the bank looks to cut costs.

Jamie Dimon addresses JPMorgan’s lawsuit against college financial-planning site Frank. (-200)

Background: I doubt executives bring this up unprompted, but analysts are probably eager to ask Dimon his thoughts, as acquisitions have been a lightning-rod issue at the bank. Analysts have questioned the value of the deals the bank has made in recent years, while Dimon has insisted he’ll spend whatever it takes to compete with fintechs. The CEO detailed those plans during JPMorgan’s investor day last May. Now that the $175 million Frank deal has blown up in his face, I’m sure some analysts will be keen to take a victory lap.

Charlie Scharf details what’s next for Wells Fargo’s mortgage business. (-150)

Background: The bank got ahead of this one by announcing its plans to step back from mortgages earlier this week. But a lot of questions still remain, and Scharf hasn’t shied away from bemoaning the problems he sees in the industry these days. Is there an eventual plan to sunset the entire business? Where will Wells look to pivot to make up that revenue? This seems like a key talking point, but how much color we get remains to be seen.

Jane Fraser maps out where she wants to take the bank’s wealth business. (+250)

Background: Reorganizing Citi’s wealth division was one of Fraser’s first big moves when she took over as CEO in 2021. But two years later, the group has reportedly fallen behind on growth targets and is in search of a new leader. That type of shakeup is bound to lead analysts to ask questions about the future of the biz, but I doubt she wants to show her hand while Citi is in the midst of finding a new head.

James Gorman hints at retirement and a potential succession plan. (+500) 

Background: The departure of COO Jon Pruzan means that there are three prime candidates to take over for the 64-year-old Gorman: Co-Presidents Ted Pick and Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz, the head of investment management. But will Gorman, who has served as CEO since January 2010 and chairman since January 2012, discuss his succession plans? Executives don’t like to acknowledge their mortality, so it seems like a longshot. 

Brian Moynihan makes a prediction on a potential recession. (-110)

Background: Banks with a large consumer footprint are often viewed as an indicator of the wider economy, so Moynihan is likely to get at least some questions about what his bank’s performance means for this will-they-won’t-they recession. 


In other news:

Miss United States in the 2023 Miss Universe Costume Contest.Miss United States in the 2023 Miss Universe Costume Contest.

Benjamin Askinas

2. A new class of MDs at Morgan Stanley. The bank announced its latest class of managing directors, with 184 people getting the nod. Here’s more info on the newest class, including which division got the most promotions.

3. Sift names a new CEO. The $1.7 billion startup that’s focused on fraud prevention in payments named Kris Nagel its new CEO. From going public to what sector he’s targeting, this is what Nagel’s focused on in his new role.

4. A 2023 recession? Not so fast, my friend! Inflation slowed in December, which could mean we avert a recession altogether. Here’s the case for a recession-free 2023.

5. Sam Bankman-Fried just won’t stop. The disgraced crypto founder won’t stay quiet, this time posting on Substack. Topics included: why FTX International still has plenty of assets; the state of Alameda Research’s balance sheet in 2021 and 2022; how Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao’s November tweets were a “targeted attack,” and how FTX and Alameda were actually raking in billions in 2021. And that concludes your daily SBF update. 

6. Starter home? More like stay-at-your-parents’ home! If you’re planning on buying your first home in 2023, just give up now. The so-called entry-level home is essentially disappearing from the market. More on why we’re all destined to be renters forever.

7. Stripe’s internal valuation takes another dip. The payments-focused fintech saw its internal valuation drop by 11%, according to The Information, the third time since June the startup has made a cut. Click here to read more about what’s going on at Stripe.

8. Word is spreading about a settlement with a senior female employee at Tiger Global, and it’s making it harder for the firm to raise its money for its newest venture fund, Semafor reports. More details on the settlement here.

9. Delta Sky Club just got a lot more exclusive. The airline notified their staff they won’t be permitted to enter a Sky Club lounge unless they are traveling with a paid ticket in an effort to cut down on long lines and overcrowding. Now pilots and flight attendants flying on standby will be forced to eat stale Auntie Anne’s pretzels like the rest of us.

10. The many faces of Miss Universe. This competition, which is one of the “Big Four” pageants (who knew that was a thing?), has been around for 71 years. Take a stroll, with good posture of course, down memory lane to see some pics of how the competition has evolved.


Curated by Dan DeFrancesco in New York. Feedback or tips? Email ddefrancesco@insider.com, tweet @dandefrancesco, or connect on LinkedIn. Edited by Jeffrey Cane (tweet @jeffrey_cane) in New York and Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London. 

 

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Wounded Russians are being sent back to Ukraine with major injuries like punctured lungs and shrapnel still in their bodies, report says

In this handout photo taken from video and released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service,In this handout photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, Russian soldiers prepare a mortar to fire, January 13, 2022.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

  • Wounded Russian soldiers are being sent to Ukraine to fight despite their injuries, according to a report.
  • Soldiers with damaged lungs and shrapnel wounds have been returned to the frontline.
  • The presidential Human Rights Council in Russia is investigating the matter, a council member said.

Severely injured Russian soldiers are being returned to the frontline in Ukraine without the approval of military doctors, independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo reported on Thursday.

In one instance, two Russian soldiers with punctured lungs were sent into combat, instead of to a military medical commission for examination, Valentina Melnikova, executive secretary of the Union of the Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia, said, per Agentstvo.

In another example, soldiers with shrapnel wounds were returned to fight, without the shrapnel being removed, according to a translation of the article by independent media outlet Meduza.

There are “an unacceptable number” of documented cases of commanders sidestepping military doctors and instead sending wounded soldiers straight from the hospital to the frontline, Melnikova told Agentstvo, per a Meduza translation.

There have also been cases of soldiers receiving treatment for ulcers, heart attacks, and strokes being sent back to Ukraine, she said.

The presidential Human Rights Council in Russia is investigating the matter after receiving complaints from hospital staff in Moscow and in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in Ukraine, council member Olga Demicheva told the state-run RIA Novosti news agency on Tuesday.

“We learned of a situation in which fighters who had received high-tech medical care with recommendations for rehabilitation and follow-up care were sent straight to the front instead of rehabilitation,” Demicheva said.

“As a result, the treatments that they received simply go down the drain,” Demicheva added, according to a translation by the International Business Times.

In November, Army Gen. Mark Milley, the highest-ranking US military officer, estimated that “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine, according to The Washington Post.

Newsweek reported this week that Russia is building new hospitals in response to a growing number of injuries among its troops, citing a daily update from the Ukrainian army.

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A year after hostage-taking, 87% of U.S. Jews ‘feel less safe’ and a security expert offers four lessons learned

This article is part of our morning briefing. Click here to get it delivered to your inbox each weekday.

Opinion | One year after the Texas hostage incident, four practical ways Jews can protect themselves: Rabbi Charlie Cytron-Walker and three of his congregants survived the attack one year ago this Shabbat thanks, in part, to the training they received from the Secure Community Network. SCN’s national director, Michael Masters, says there’s a lot other Jewish institutions can learn from that experience. “These suggestions for a thorough security plan,” he writes, “are the best way to save lives.” Read his essay ➤

 

And a new survey found that the hostage-taking has left the overwhelming majority of U.S. Jews, 87%, feeling less safe. The American Jewish Committee, which conducted the study, found that U.S. Jews were more acutely aware of the incident than other adults, despite extensive media coverage of it, and that younger Jews are more concerned about their physical safety than older Jews. Read the story ➤

Follow all our coverage from the aftermath of the hostage crisis. And read a new Associated Press interview with all four of those held hostage.

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An interfaith rally against antisemitism in Miami in 2021. (Getty)

One in five Americans think Jews ‘have too much power’: A new ADL survey found that belief in core antisemitic tropes is on the rise. A majority of those polled agreed with statements like Jews “stick to together more than other Americans” and “seek to hire Jews,” while 39% said they’re more loyal to Israel than the United States and 21% that they “don’t care about anyone other than themselves.” And adults under 30 were almost as likely to share antisemitic beliefs as older Americans. ADL chief Jonathan Greenblatt called the data “stunning and sobering.” Read the story ➤

Television’s goriest Holocaust revenge fantasy got a little less gory: Three years after stoking the ire of the Auschwitz Memorial Museum and the USC Shoah foundation, the controversial Amazon series Hunters returns for its farewell season. In a surprise, it dials back on much of what made it controversial. The show’s creator, David Weil, seems to have heard the institutional complaints, PJ Grisar writes, and has “shifted gears and steered clear of Shoah shock value — even if his comments to the press belie the growth he’s made.” Read the story ➤

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Playwright Paula Vogel, author of Indecent, at the 2022 Tony Awards. (Getty)

Why the decision to shut down a Jewish play in Florida borders on obscenity: A local school district canceled a high school production of Paula Vogel’s play Indecent, which tells the real-life story of a Yiddish play that was shut down a century ago because it featured a lesbian relationship. David Chack, who directed the play last summer in Kentucky, spoke with Vogel about life imitating art imitating life. “Why hurt the students who are aiming to become theater makers?” Vogel asked. “Instead of letting them discover the issues of antisemitism, intolerance, censorship and the Holocaust, the school board is censoring them.” Read the story ➤

 

But wait there’s more…

  • Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s governor-elect, will take the oath of office on Tuesday with a Hebrew Bible that survived the deadly attack at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh with no damage.

     

  • The man behind companies that provide special education services to several New York City yeshivas is facing charges that he embezzled almost $3 million from the state government.
  • A reader who keeps kosher asked our Bintel Brief advice column about giving shrimp to a baby as a way to prevent food allergies. Turns out there’s no need to sully the kitchen on this one — science and data from Israel have the answer!
  • Jews looking for a destination wedding spot that offers sun, sand and a fully halachic experience can now pick Jamaica, where a Chabad has opened a mikvah.
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Inspired by Jewish folklore and kabbalistic rituals, The Offering is a welcome addition to a growing canon of Jewish horror films. The movie follows the son of a Hasidic funeral director and his pregnant wife as they return home to reconcile with his father, only to find an ancient evil waiting there for them. Now available in theaters and on demand!

WHAT ELSE YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

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A GWU student attends a campus vigil against antisemitism in 2021, after a replica Torah was vandalized. (Eric Lee)

🏫  StandWithUs, a pro-Israel nonprofit, has filed a Department of Education complaint against George Washington University alleging that the school failed to take action against a professor accused of antisemitism. The complaint says that the professor, who teaches a mandatory course on diversity, required students to attend a lecture by a speaker who “invoked age-old antisemitic tropes” about Jews and money; suggested a student should feel shame for being Israeli; told Jewish students they could not separate their identities from “the political;” and filed disciplinary charges against them in retaliation for their accusing her of antisemitism. (Jewish Journal) Related: Read our year-long look at what it’s really like to be Jewish at GWU. 

 

🇩🇪  The German rabbi found last year to have abused his power at rabbinical schools he created has relinquished his ownership stake in the seminaries. The rabbi, who was also accused of sexual harassment, sold his portion of the Reform and Conservative training schools for about $27,000 to the Berlin Jewish community and will no longer run them. (JTA)

 

🙏  The United States Merchant Marine Academy in Kings Point, New York, said it planned to cover a gigantic painting of Jesus in one of its conference rooms in response to a complaint filed by Mikey Weinstein, the president of the Military Religious Freedom Foundation. “Given the size of the painting,” wrote the school’s superintendent, “there is no other location to which it can be moved.” (DailyKos)

 

🇺🇸  Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff met on Thursday with the co-chairs of the House Bipartisan Task Force for Combating Antisemitism. Among the topics they discussed was fighting misinformation and the need to continue educating people about the history of antisemitism. 

 

📈  More and more Haredi Israelis in recent years got over their fear of psychotherapy. Rising demand — one therapy office sees 400 patients a week — has led to long waiting lists, and unqualified therapists trying to fill the void. (Haaretz) 

 

💑  A happily married Jewish entrepreneur launched a website to help people going through a divorce. He acknowledged that it might seem a little weird for him to do this, but says he knew there was a need after witnessing friends and family go through painful separations. “At the end of the day,” he said, “you don’t have to have a bad heart to be a heart surgeon.” (Bloomberg)

 

🎞️  Turner Classic Movies is airing films this month honoring the “Jewish experience” – including The Chosen, Annie Hall and The Frisco Kid. The network says the goal is to show “how filmmakers have attempted to deal with such themes as assimilation, antisemitism, religion, family life and the Holocaust, sometimes with clarity and honesty, other times with varying degrees of distortion and caricature.” (JTA)

Long weekend reads ➤  Why are Hindus and Muslims in India worshiping dead Jews? … A DJ’s remixes are bringing classic Israeli songs to today’s clubs … Archaeologists find a surprising ‘moment in the life’ of prehistoric hunters in Israel.

Spread the word! Invite someone

to sign up for this newsletter.👇

SHABBAT READING

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In this weekend’s edition of our print magazine: Yirmiyahu Danzig argues in a new essay that Hebrew Israelites are “extremists” and conflating them with Jews of color, like himself, delegitimizes his place in the Jewish community. Jews of color, he writes, “are rabbis in your local synagogue. They are members of the local chapter of the Jewish federation. They attend Hebrew day schools with your kids.” Plus: a chat with the Jewish Democrat who lost to Rep. George Santos, how a master forger used his talent to save Jews from the Holocaust, a review of Netflix’s new Bernie Madoff series and much more. Download your copy now ➤

ON THE CALENDAR

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Sophie Tucker, who the Forward once called the Yiddish Lady Gaga. (Library of Congress)

On this day in history (1886): Entertainer Sophie Tucker was born in what is present-day Ukraine. Tucker was perhaps best known for her rendition of “My Yiddishe Momme,” which was played by American soldiers as they entered Berlin at the end of World War II, but experienced widespread fame as a comedian, singer and Vaudevillian throughout her career. “From around 1907 almost until her death in 1966,” Curt Schleier wrote in the Forward in 2015, “the ribald Tucker was the Madonna of her time.”

 

Last year on this day, we profiled Miriam Anzovin, a TikTok star who offers irreverent and spicy daily takes on the Talmud.

 

On the Hebrew calendar, it’s the 20th of Tevet, the yahrtzeit of Maimonides, one of the most prolific and influential Torah scholars of the Middle Ages, who died in 1204.

 

In honor of National Rubber Ducky Day, check out these Jewish-themed rubber ducks on Etsy.

And in honor of Friday the 13th, here are five horror movies to watch by Jewish directors.

VIDEO OF THE DAY

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A new film called SHTTL, debuting this weekend at the New York Jewish Film Festival, takes a dramatically different approach to telling the Holocaust story: It depicts the bustling life in a Jewish shtetl the day before it was invaded by Nazis. Adding to the authenticity, the entire film was shot in one single take. Read more about the movie ➤

 

–––

Thanks to Samuel Breslow, PJ Grisar, Beth Harpaz, Jacob Kornbluh and Talya Zax for contributing to today’s newsletter. You can reach the “Forwarding” team at editorial@forward.com.

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The post A year after hostage-taking, 87% of U.S. Jews ‘feel less safe’ and a security expert offers four lessons learned appeared first on The Forward.

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Analysis: Russian mercenary boss courts Putin with Ukrainian battlefield success

2023-01-13T12:45:04Z

In the twilight of the Soviet Union, Yevgeny Prigozhin was languishing in prison for theft. Now as the founder of Russia’s most powerful mercenary group, he is vying for Vladimir Putin’s favour by claiming a rare battlefield win in Ukraine.

His aim is to leverage the success that Wagner Group, his mercenary outfit, had this week in pushing Ukrainian forces out of the salt mining town of Soledar, a move that revives Russian plans to seize more of eastern Ukraine after multiple defeats.

Russia claimed victory on Friday after Ukraine said its forces were holding on after a ‘hot’ night of fighting. Reuters could not immediately verify the situation in the town.

Prigozhin, 61, who is sanctioned in the West and casts himself as a ruthless patriot, has posed in combat gear with his men in a salt mine deep beneath Soledar and said they were fighting alone, an assertion contradicted by defence officials.

The Kremlin on Thursday spoke of the “absolutely heroic selfless actions” of those fighting in Soledar. The defence ministry on Friday attributed victory to its airborne units, missile forces and “artillery of a grouping of Russian forces”.

Prigozhin said Russian officials were not giving his forces their due credit.

“They constantly try to steal victory from the Wagner PMC (private military company) and talk about the presence of other unknown people just to belittle Wagner’s merits,” he complained.

Some commentators have said he could one day be made defence minister, but it is not fully clear how much influence the businessman from St Petersburg has gained with Putin, who tends to balance factions with a strategy of divide and rule.

Prominent Putin supporters, some with access to the Russian leader, have contrasted Prigozhin’s progress with what they say has been a less impressive performance by the regular military.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, has hailed the shaven-headed mercenary chief as “a new hero.”

“Prigozhin has flaws too. But I won’t tell you about them. Because Prigozhin and Wagner are now Russia’s national treasure. They are becoming a symbol of victory,” Markov wrote on his blog, saying they should be given more resources by the state.

Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state-controlled RT channel and close to the Kremlin, thanked Prigozhin for Soledar.

Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speech writer, suggested on his blog that Prigozhin was manoeuvring in case Putin removed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, 67, his long-standing ally.

Prigozhin has played down the idea he is seeking official elevation in the past, while not emphatically ruling it out. His press service, and the Kremlin, did not immediately reply to requests for fresh comment.

Putin has said Wagner does not represent the state and is not breaking Russian law and has the right to work and promote its business interests anywhere in the world.

One of the military bloggers who help shape Russians’ view of the conflict likened Prigozhin to a Roman centurion licensed to operate above and outside the law to achieve Putin’s goals.

“A couple more successful Wagner operations and online votes proposing Prigozhin for Minister of Defence will cease to be fantasy,” said Zhivov Z.

Yet Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist and former Federal Security Service officer who helped launch the original Donbas war in 2014 and is under U.S. sanctions, has said Prigozhin is careless with the lives of his men. He has also said capturing Soledar and nearby Bakhmut would not be militarily significant.

Prigozhin, nicknamed “Putin’s Chef” by Western media because he once ran a floating restaurant in St Petersburg where Putin ate, has plenty to gain or lose.

He has his own future to consider at a time of tumult as well as the commercial interests of Wagner, which Russian officials say has military and mining contracts in Africa and is active in Syria. He also has a vast catering company serving state entities, as well as troll farms and media outlets.

“In essence, he is a private businessman who is highly dependent on how his relations with the authorities are structured. This is a very vulnerable position,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm.

The attendance on a Wagner training course this month of the governor of Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine looked like another way for Prigozhin to enhance his connections, she said.

Russia has allowed Prigozhin to recruit tens of thousands of convicts from its prisons for Wagner, which U.S. officials say is a 50,000-strong force, and let him equip them with tanks, aircraft and missile defence systems.

It has also stood by while he flung sometimes profane criticism at the top brass, although some Western military analysts suggested the appointment of the most senior general to lead the war in Ukraine was designed to balance his influence.

Before Russia’s invasion, something Moscow calls “a special military operation”, Prigozhin had denied his Wagner connection. In September, he said he had founded the mercenary group in 2014.

Despite its sometimes publicly strained ties with the Russian defence ministry, some Western military analysts suspect Wagner is closely affiliated with it.

Leonid Nevzlin, an Israel-based former executive at oil major Yukos which he says was illegally appropriated by the Russian state, something it denies, said this week there was a risk Wagner could throw off Kremlin control.

One source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media, said the Kremlin viewed Prigozhin as a useful operator but maintained unspecified safeguards over leaders of armed groups.

“There is a ceiling (of growth) and mechanisms in place,” said the source, who declined to provide more details.

Related Galleries:

Yevgeny Prigozhin (L) assists Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a dinner with foreign scholars and journalists at the restaurant Cheval Blanc on the premises of an equestrian complex outside Moscow November 11, 2011. Picture taken November 11. REUTERS/Misha Japaridze/Pool

A truck displaying “Z” symbols in support of the Russian armed forces involved in a military conflict in Ukraine is parked outside PMC Wagner Centre, which is a project implemented by the businessman and founder of the Wagner private military group Yevgeny Prigozhin, during the official opening of the office block in Saint Petersburg, Russia, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Igor Russak


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Futures extend declines after bank earnings

2023-01-13T12:31:44Z

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

U.S. stock index futures extended falls on Friday, as quarterly results from some major U.S. banks added to concerns that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening has started taking a toll on economic growth.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) set aside $1.4 billion in anticipation of a mild recession as it reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on the back of strong performance at its trading unit. Shares of the bank fell 2.4% in premarket trading.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) dropped 2.6% after reporting a 50% plunge in quarterly profit as the bank stockpiled money to prepare for soured loans against the backdrop of a weaker economy.

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) was an outlier among big banks, rising 0.6% after reporting a better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit as rate hikes helped it charge more interest on loans to customers.

Earnings from big banks were viewed as a major test of the strength of corporate America in the backdrop of sharp interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to curb decades-high inflation.

Wall Street’s main indexes gained on Thursday after consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years last month, fueling hopes for a sustained downward trend in inflation that could give the Fed room to scale down the size of its rate hikes.

Money market participants see a 90.6% chance the Fed will hike the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in February, but see the terminal rate at 4.9% by June after the December inflation print.

Hopes of a less hawkish monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve have supported equities in 2023, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) on track for their best weekly performance since November 2022.

Investors will also closely monitor University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for January, while tracking comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to assess the strength of the U.S. economy.

At 7:06 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 85 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.25 points, or 0.36%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 58 points, or 0.5%.

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) fell 5.1% in premarket trading after slashing prices on its electric vehicles in the United States and Europe by as much as 20% after missing 2022 deliveries estimates.

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) fell 3.8% as the company forecast current-quarter profit below expectations on higher operating costs.

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Parliamentarian Identifies Three Allegedly Most Corrupt Government Agencies

A senior Ukrainian lawmaker has named what he believes are the a few most corrupt government companies which all contributed to enormous losses in the country’s point out finances in 2022. 

Yaroslav Zheleznyak of the opposition Holos (Voice) faction in the Ukrainian parliament, is now heading a fee whose remit is to examine attainable violations of Ukrainian laws by officers. He statements that “billions are becoming stolen.” 

Kyiv Put up spoke with Zheleznyak and questioned him to title the companies he points to and describe why he thinks they are liable for these injury to the Ukrainian economy. 

Customs Support – However Problematic

 According to Zheleznyak, the Ukrainian Customs Company, which collects tariffs on the movement of products into and out of the nation, is a key illustration of “inefficiency and corruption.”

“Just 56.9 %, 300 billion hryvnias [$8.2 billion] of the planned 528 billion hryvnias [$14.5 billion], were acquired by the funds in 2022,” he explained.

The Customs Assistance has always experienced a status as one of the most corrupt agencies in Ukraine and due to the fact 2014 all makes an attempt at reforming this business have fulfilled with failure.

The war has seriously impacted the do the job of the Customs Support thanks to the reduction of transit, customs privileges, and export constraints on customs revenues.

 Having said that, devaluation of the hryvnia and soaring inflation have played a substantial function in growing the price of payments to be been given by the Customs Assistance which should really have offset the results of the war.

Zheleznyak told Kyiv Post that the failure to collect revenues for the state spending budget by 44 percent was apparent: “The principal explanation for this kind of failure on the component of the Customs Support is pretty very simple – they steal there. 

“Billions are being stolen,” he claimed.

As a comparison, he claimed the State Tax Administration managed to fulfill peacetime targets by nearly 100 % even with the decline of taxpayers and the wider financial effects of the war.

In December, the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered an embezzlement scheme at the Odesa department of the Customs Support involving Ukrainian grain export cash. 

Much more than 10 substantial-ranking officials are allegedly included in the scheme, which include the deputy head of one particular of the departments of the Point out Migration Company and management at Odesa Customs.

Officers found a huge-scale tax evasion mechanism employed in the export of Ukrainian grain resulting in the decline of hundreds of millions of hryvnias that need to have entered the condition finances.

 The Customs Company did not reply to a request for comment from Kyiv Put up.

The Financial Stability Bureau 

The Financial Safety Bureau (ESB) officially started functions back again in November 2021 and was anticipated to develop into a counterpart to the Nationwide Anti-Corruption Bureau in Ukraine, but this objective has nevertheless to be accomplished.

In accordance to formal figures, in the to start with 6 months of 2022, the ESB investigated 323 proceedings. Even so, just 62 were being accomplished and only four indictments ended up essentially despatched to court.

In accordance to Zheleznyak, the ESB put in 211 million hryvnias [$5.8 million] from the point out finances in the very first 11 months of 2022, but the point out funds unsuccessful to obtain a single hryvnia from its functions. 

“In excess of the system of 11 months, the ESB submitted only 7 instances to the courts. The sum of compensated damages from felony proceedings is zero,” Zheleznyak wrote on his Telegram channel.

This kind of inefficiency, he claims, can only be defined by the steps of workers of the organization in covering up irregularities and involvement in corrupt schemes.

“There is so substantially fraud, and we are losing 10-20 billion hryvnias [$250-500 million] each and every thirty day period as a end result of illegal routines – in tobacco, gambling, alcoholic beverages trafficking, tax evasion, etc.,” Zheleznyak mentioned. 

Final month the SBU accused a detective from the ESB in Zakarpattia Region of bribery. 

He is claimed to have been given around $6,000 in exchange for defending the unlawful investing of electronic cigarettes from neighborhood entrepreneur.

The ESB did not respond to a request for remark from Kyiv Put up.

Assets confiscator ARMA

The Asset Recovery and Management Company (ARMA) is a distinctive governmental human body that traces and seizes belongings of these associated in criminal proceedings.

Zheleznyak explained ARMA was the third company on his checklist due to the infective promoting of seized Russian property. 

“The most glaring illustration is the ammonia circumstance,” Zheleznyak spelled out. 

Back in November 2022, ARMA marketed 42,000 tons of Russian ammonia, seized at the commence of Russia’s whole-scale invasion very last 12 months. 

ARMA’s management made the decision to split the 42,000 tons into smaller a lot and provide them by way of the Prydniprovye-2021 commodity trade,

A total of three auctions were held but the marketing selling price per ton of ammonia was, on common, $300 much less than the value by using the Prozorro on the internet auction. On Sep. 16, the state-owned enterprise Ukrkhimtransamiak bought the exact chemical at a cost of $1,312 for each ton.

Zheleznyak promises the sale was a primary case in point of Ukraine’s inefficient administration when promoting confiscated Russian property. 

When Kyiv Article questioned ARMA to respond to this accusation, its head, Oleksiy Tamozhansky, mentioned the big difference in selling prices was thanks to the actuality that products bought by ARMA do not consist of the 20 per cent VAT that is paid out by the buyer. 

He also reported the cost does not replicate the charge of storage at the Odesa Port Plant, which is $250, so thus the price on the Prozorro is not comparable.

The brief sale of ammonia was a priority for the governing administration to steer clear of the pitfalls related with the war. In common, the marketplace of confiscated merchandise is problematic for purchaser, Tamozhansky admitted. The consumer has to distinct the items and receive more permits, which may incur more prices.

Obviously, as Zheleznyak indicates, from the point of watch of suitable accountability, there is a good deal to check, probe, and report on.

 

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The post Parliamentarian Identifies Three Allegedly Most Corrupt Government Agencies appeared first on Ukraine Intelligence.

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Swedish govt moves to get rid of permits needed for dancing

STOCKHOLM (AP) — Sweden’s center-right coalition government wants to cut red tape when it comes to dancing by abolishing a decade-old requirement for restaurants, nightclubs and other venues to obtain permits before they let patrons shimmy and sway.

The proposal made Thursday means that venues no longer would need a license to organize dances. Instead, as a general rule, they would only have to register with the police, which can be done verbally and does not cost anything.

Applying for a permit incurs a fee of at least 700 kroner ($67) for the establishment. As it is now, owners can lose their liquor and business licenses if police officers come by and find out that a venue did not have authorization to let patrons dance.

“It is not reasonable for the state to regulate people’s dance,” Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer said in a government statement. “By removing the requirement for a dance permit, we also reduce bureaucracy and costs for entrepreneurs and others who organize dances.”

Swedish media outlets welcomed the move to abolish the dance permits, which have been called outdated and moralistic.

The government proposed having the change take effect on July 1, although it requires parliamentary approval.

In 2016, the Swedish parliament voted unanimously to do away with the permits but the requirement still exists in law and is enforced. Swedish broadcaster SVT said that for the past 20 years, lawmakers from every party except the Social Democrats have favored abolishing the permits.

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Online Yiddish theater workshop and Yiddish courses at a low price

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An online Yiddish theater workshop, as well as Yiddish courses on all levels, is starting on the week of January 15, sponsored by the venerable Toronto UJA Committee for Yiddish. Each course is $160.

In the Yiddish theater workshop, which will run on Tuesday evenings from 7:00 pm to 8:30 pm EST, students will act out the roles of the Yiddish translation of Arthur Miller’s “Death of a Salesman”. A production of the play, translated years before by the late Yiddish actors Joseph Bulov and Luba Kadison, was sponsored by the New Yiddish Rep in New York City in 2015 to high acclaim, with Avi Hoffman playing the lead role, Willie Loman. Scripts in the workshop will be available in both transliteration and in Yiddish, and no previous Yiddish or performance experience is required. The workshop will be facilitated by award-winning performer, director, and playwright, David Gale.

The Committee for Yiddish is also running Yiddish language courses for beginners on three levels: A beginners class for people who have no Yiddish knowledge; Beginner-Plus for those who want to develop basic conversational skills, grammar and facility with the alef-beys, and an intermediate class. All courses will be taught by Ruth Gerlock.

There will also be an advanced Yiddish language course, conducted entirely in Yiddish, focused on advanced reading, writing, grammar, and conversation. The foundation of the course will be reading and discussing short stories by a selection of Israeli Yiddish authors. Students will use the texts as jumping-off points to explore higher-level grammatical topics and discuss historical, cultural, and linguistic points of interest. Sharon Power is the instructor.

To learn the schedule for these and other classes and to register, click here.

 

The post Online Yiddish theater workshop and Yiddish courses at a low price appeared first on The Forward.

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Early Edition: January 13, 2023

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Signup to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here.

A curated weekday guide to major national security news and developments over the past 24 hours. Here’s today’s news.

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS

Attorney General Merrick Garland yesterday named Robert Hur as special counsel to examine why classified documents were found at President Biden’s home and office. Hur is a veteran federal prosecutor who was the U.S. attorney in Maryland during the Trump administration and a senior aide to the deputy attorney general. In a brief order, Garland said Hur would examine the possible unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents. “The Special Counsel is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters,” the order said. Sadie Gurman, Aruna Viswanatha and Tarini Parti report for the Wall Street Journal.  

The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday launched the panel’s investigation into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Chair Michael McCaul (R-TX), requested a vast number of documents related to the withdrawal from the State Department, giving it a deadline of Jan. 26 to respond and threatening the power of subpoena if it fails to comply. Kylie Atwood reports for CNN. 

Prosecutors and defense attornies made their opening statements yesterday at the seditious conspiracy trial of five members of the far-right Proud Boys group. During their statements, prosecutors sought not only to place the group at the center of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol but also to tie it directly to Trump. The defense also pointed to Trump arguing that the defendants were being used as a “scapegoat” for the former president. Live reporting is provided by the Washington Post. 

Two Trump Organization entities will be sentenced today for running a decade-long tax fraud scheme. The Trump Corp. and Trump Payroll Corp. were convicted last month of 17 felonies, including tax fraud and falsifying business records. No individual will go to jail and the business is not at risk of being dissolved. Under New York law, the most the companies can be fined is about $1.6 million. Kara Scannell reports for CNN. 

In a court filing yesterday Google urged the Supreme Court not to scale back liability protections for websites such as YouTube and Facebook. In its filing, Google argued that doing so could lead internet giants to block more potentially offensive content – including controversial political speech – while also leading smaller websites to remove their filters to avoid liability that can arise from efforts to screen content. John D. McKinnon reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

U.S. RELATIONS 

Russia has released a U.S. Navy veteran who had been detained in Kaliningrad since April, a spokesperson for his family announced yesterday. Russian officials allowed Taylor Dudley to leave custody in the Russian enclave and cross the border into Poland where he was greeted by an official from the U.S. embassy. Dudley’s release marks the second time in just over a month that an American has been freed from Russian custody. Michael Crowley reports for the New York Times. 

RUSSIA, UKRAINE

The Russian defense ministry said this morning that its forces had taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar. According to the ministry, this will make it possible to cut off Ukrainian supply routes to the larger town of Bakhmut and trap the remaining Ukrainian forces there. Russia’s claim could not be verified, and earlier this morning Ukraine said that its forces were still holding out in the town. Reuters reports. 

The U.N.’s atomic energy agency is set to deploy international inspectors at all of Ukraine’s nuclear plants. The deployment will dramatically expand the International Atomic Energy Agency’s role in the war, with Kyiv hoping that increased U.N. presence will deter further Russian attacks. Drew Hinshaw, Laurence Norman and Joe Parkinson report for the Wall Street Journal. 

Russia’s replacement of its commander in charge of the war in Ukraine likely reflects “systemic problems” in the Russian army, a Pentagon spokesperson said yesterday. These include “logistics problems, command and control problems, sustainment problems, morale and the failure to achieve the strategic objectives that they’ve set for themselves,” spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder added. Anushka Patil reports for the New York Times. 

A global recession can be avoided so long as China continues to ease its COVID-19 restrictions and Russia’s war with Ukraine does not worsen, the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) has said. Speaking to reporters in Washington yesterday, the managing director of the IMF expressed optimism that economic expansion could accelerate next year but warned that the global economy continues to be fragile. Alan Rappeport reports for the New York Times. 

BRAZIL 

Authorities in Brazil yesterday asked a federal court to block assets belonging to 52 people and seven companies in relation to the attack in the capital on Sunday. The individuals and companies in question are alleged to have helped fund the buses that carried supporters of defeated former president Jair Bolsonaro to the riot. The blocked assets would be used to compensate the government for the massive damage caused by rioters during the attack. Samantha Schmidt, Amanda Coletta and Diana Durán report for the Washington Post. 

Brazilian authorities have found a draft decree proposing the introduction of a state of defense to overturn the result of the country’s presidential elections in the house of Bolsonaro’s justice minister. The document was found during a search and arrest warrant at the house of Anderson Torres on Tuesday, a Justice Ministry spokesperson said. The document has not been signed by Bolsonaro, the spokesperson added. Rodrigo Pedroso, Vasco Cotovio and Karen Smith report for CNN. 

OTHER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS 

Israel’s new justice minister, Yariv Levin, has announced his controversial proposals for judicial change. The first proposal would reduce the Supreme Court’s ability to revoke laws passed in Parliament. The second would give the government greater influence over who gets to be a judge. Collectively, the two proposals would give more power to the government of the day, prompting sharp criticism from opposition leader Yair Lapid as well as a former defense minister and a former army general. Patrick Kingsley reports for the New York Times. 

Sri Lanka’s top court yesterday ordered the country’s former president and several of his senior officials to pay compensation to the families of the victims of terrorist attacks on Easter Sunday in 2019. The court ruled that Maithripala Sirisena, the president of Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2019, and his security officials had failed to take steps to prevent the attacks despite detailed intelligence reports suggesting they were imminent. Skandha Gunasekara and Mujib Mashal report for the New York Times. 

Japanese prosecutors have indicted a man suspected of fatally shooting former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last year. Tetsuya Yamagami has been indicted on murder and firearms charges, Nara prosecutors’ office said in a statement. Junko Ogura, Emiko Jozuka, Aliza Kassim Khalidi and Heather Chen report for CNN. 

Ethiopia’s defense forces say members of the Amhara special force – allies of the federal government – have started withdrawing from the Tigrayan city of Shire and its surrounding area. This comes as Tigrayan fighters began handing over their weapons early this week. Tigrayan forces long demanded the withdrawal of forces from Amhara and neighboring Eritrea from the region. Kalkidan Yibeltal reports for BBC News. 

COVID-19

COVID-19 has infected over 101.611 million people and has now killed over 1.10 million people in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Globally, there have been over 666.328 million confirmed coronavirus cases and over 6.72 million deaths. Sergio Hernandez, Sean O’Key, Amanda Watts, Byron Manley and Henrik Pettersson report for CNN.

A map and analysis of all confirmed cases of the virus in the U.S. is available at the New York Times.

U.S. and worldwide maps tracking the spread of the pandemic are available at the Washington Post. 

The post Early Edition: January 13, 2023 appeared first on Just Security.

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