Reshaping the order

This month’s topline events

Biden-Xi Summit. Meeting in-person for the first time as national leaders, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to diminish tensions in what has become an increasingly adversarial relationship between China and the United States. On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Indonesia, the two leaders agreed to reopen talks on climate change and discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Xi reportedly agreeing with Biden that “nuclear weapons must not be used.” But Xi also warned the US not to “cross the redline” regarding Taiwan.

• Shaping the order. While the historic summit may help the two nations establish guardrails in their relationship, it is unlikely to impact the broader trajectory, as the US and China seem headed toward a potentially decades-long strategic competition over the future of the global order. Such a competition appeared to be playing out in real time, as Xi met separately at the G20 with French president Emmanuel Macron and earlier in Beijing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suggesting that European leaders should act independently and distance themselves from US polices toward China.
• Hitting home. The intensifying strategic competition between the West and China will have direct implications for American businesses, which will need to look at ways to reduce vulnerabilities to China in critical sectors.
• What to do. Washington should continue to pursue cooperation with Beijing in potential areas of common interest. But with China seeking to undermine democratic solidarity, the US should prioritize efforts to forge a common strategic approach for dealing with Beijing among its core allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Protests Across China. In a remarkable show of bravery, thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in cities across China, many shouting anti-regime slogans, to protest Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policies of forced quarantines and strict lockdowns. Chinese authorities responded to the protests – the most widespread in mainland China since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre – by arresting and intimidating demonstrators and restricting social media. Chinese officials later seemed to indicate a willingness to soften Covid restrictions. US officials reacted cautiously, defending the right to peaceful protest but avoiding direct criticism of Beijing. 

• Shaping the order. The anti-government protests erupting across China suggest that Beijing’s response to Covid may not be a model of autocratic efficiency, as it was once touted. More broadly, the protests follow those recently taking place in Iran and Russia (albeit briefly) and appear to be part of a pattern of growing citizen unrest in autocracies around the world. But authoritarian regimes have become increasingly adept in clamping down on demonstrations and blunting their impacts, including by deploying and sharing more sophisticated surveillance technologies.
• Hitting home. American values are better protected in a world where democratic norms and human rights are respected.
• What to do. In coordination with allies, the Biden administration should supplement measures to constrain authoritarian governments with assistance to non-violent civil resistance movements across the world. Its upcoming Summit for Democracy, in March 2023, will provide an opportunity to focus on efforts in this space.

Russia Scales Back. In a significant setback for the Kremlin’s war aims in Ukraine, Russian forces pulled out of Kherson, the capital of one of the four regional provinces that Russian president Vladimir Putin formally purported to annex in September. As Russian forces consolidate, the Ukrainian military appeared to be preparing for a new counteroffensive potentially aimed at seizing back territory to the south and east. Russia continued to strike power and water facilities across the country, causing widespread outages as a cold winter approaches, as G7 leaders condemned the “barbaric missile attacks” on civilian infrastructure.

• Shaping the order. While the conflict is likely to go on for months, the tide of the war continues to turn in favor of Ukraine, as Russian forces have been put on the defensive. Russia also appears to be increasingly isolated on the global stage, with Putin choosing to stay away from the G20 leaders’ summit in Bali – one that concluded with a joint statement announcing that “most leaders” strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and declaring the threat to use nuclear weapons as “inadmissible.”
• Hitting home. America is less secure in a world where global powers can invade their neighbors and commit war crimes with impunity.   
• What to do. Washington should work with allies to ensure that Ukraine continues to receive advanced weapons and equipment to repair power and water systems, while seeking to incentivize governments in the global South to join in efforts to sanction and isolate Russia.

Quote of the month

“[I]f we let Putin win, all of us will pay a much higher price, for many years to come… There can be no lasting peace if the aggressor wins. There can be no lasting peace if oppression and autocracy prevail over freedom and democracy.” 

– NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, November 29, 2022

State of the Order this month: Strengthened

Assessing the five core pillars of the democratic world order    

Democracy (↑)

• In the most significant protest movement in mainland China since the Tiananmen Square massacre, thousands of citizens across the country demonstrated against Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policies, many shouting anti-regime slogans, as government authorities arrested and intimidated demonstrators and restricted social media.
• The UN Human Rights Council approved an investigation into human rights abuses in Iran, where over 300 people have been killed and 14,000 arrested since anti-regime protests began three months ago. 
• In the US midterm elections, nearly every candidate for an office that oversees and certifies elections in battleground states that had denied the results of the 2020 election was defeated — a win for the integrity of America’s democratic system.
• Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, who had been diplomatically isolated after conducting fraudulent elections in 2018, was welcomed back to the international community, attending a UN climate conference in Egypt and shaking hands with French President Emmanuel Macron and US climate envoy John Kerry.
• On balance, the democracy pillar was strengthened.

Security (↑)

• In a significant battleground victory for Ukraine, Russian forces pulled out of Kherson, a key southern city and capital of one of the four regional provinces that Russian president Vladimir Putin formally purported to annex in September. 
• Russia came under increasing diplomatic pressure over its aggression in Ukraine, as Putin backed out of the G20 summit and faced subtle pushback from allies in a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-dominated alliance of post-Soviet nations.
• North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile potentially capable of reaching the US mainland, a move strongly condemned by the US and its allies, including Japan and South Korea.
• At a meeting in Tehran signaling a growing polarization between democracies and autocracies, officials from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Belarus, and other nations issued a joint rebuke of the “so-called rules-based order” and criticized efforts to “divide our world into blocs.
• In light of Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, the security pillar was strengthened.

Trade ()

• France and other European nations criticized subsidies for US companies included in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, suggesting that such measures were protectionist and inconsistent with principles of an open economic order. 
• Russia asked India for assistance in keeping vital industries running, as the two nations exchanged lists of products that could be the basis for expanded trade between the two nations, despite Western sanctions on Russia.
• On balance, the trade pillar was unchanged.

Commons (↑)

• With emissions likely to reach historic levels this year, the US and its allies agreed at a global climate summit in Egypt to establish a fund for wealthy industrial nations to compensate developing countries for negative effects of climate change and accelerate global decarbonization.
• China braced for significant increases in nationwide Covid-related illnesses as the government’s zero-Covid strategy came under pressure in the wake of a looming economic slowdown and an under-vaccinated population.
• With the actions taken at the climate summit, the global commons pillar was strengthened.

Alliances ()

• G7 leaders, meeting on the margins of the G20 summit in Bali, jointly condemned Russia’s “barbaric” missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and vowed to hold Russia accountable.
• While in Asia, President Biden met with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea and resolved to forge closer trilateral links, amid continuing discord between Tokyo and Seoul, and also announced a new economic security dialogue among the three nations.
• In a sign of potential divergence among allies, Emmanuel Macron accused former Australian prime minister Scott Morrison of provoking “nuclear confrontation” with China, and, in a meeting with Indo-Pacific leaders, called for “dynamic balance” with regard to China as opposed to strict alignment with the US.
• Overall, the alliance pillar was unchanged.

Strengthened (↑)________Unchanged ()________Weakened (↓)

What is the democratic world order? Also known as the liberal order, the rules-based order, or simply the free world, the democratic world order encompasses the rules, norms, alliances, and institutions created and supported by leading democracies over the past seven decades to foster security, democracy, prosperity, and a healthy planet.

This month’s top reads

Three must-read commentaries on the democratic order     

• John Ikenberry, in Foreign Affairs, contends that as the world faces a struggle between liberal and illiberal world orders, America is well-positioned to succeed given the appeal of its ideas and capacities to build partnerships and alliances.
• Andrea Kendall-Taylor, in Foreign Affairs, argues that despite its mounting setbacks in Ukraine, Russia will remain a formidable threat to the United States and its allies.
• Fareed Zakaria, in the Washington Post, contends that while much has been written about democracy’s fragility, the world’s most powerful autocracies are showing signs of deep and structural weaknesses.

Action and analysis by the Atlantic Council

Our experts weigh in on this month’s events

• In an Atlantic Council Strategy Paper, Matthew Kroenig and Jeffrey Cimmino joined Stephen Hadley, William Taylor, John Herbst, and Melinda Haring in proposing a long-haul strategy to help Ukraine win the war against Russia and secure the peace.
• Dan Fried, in Just Security, contends that initiating negotiations to end the Ukraine war on Putin’s terms is oddly timed, and potentially dangerous.
• Peter Engelke, in the New Atlanticist, outlines key recommendations for G20 member states on how to combat global food insecurity, in the context of the Atlantic Council’s Global Food Security Forum in Bali, on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
• Atlantic Council experts react to recent waves of protests in China against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) restrictive Covid-19 policies.

__________________________________________________

The Democratic Order Initiative is an Atlantic Council initiative aimed at reenergizing American global leadership and strengthening cooperation among the world’s democracies in support of a rules-based democratic order. Sign on to the Council’s Declaration of Principles for Freedom, Prosperity, and Peace by clicking here.

Ash Jain – Director for Democratic Order
Dan Fried – Distinguished Fellow
Jeffrey Cimmino – Associate Director
Danielle Miller – Program Assistant
Otto Hastrup Svendsen – Georgetown Student Researcher

If you would like to be added to our email list for future publications and events, or to learn more about the Democratic Order Initiative, please email AJain@atlanticcouncil.org.

The post State of the Order: Assessing November 2022 appeared first on Atlantic Council.

(NewsNation) —University of Idaho students are heading home after a semester like no other. While such an exodus at semester’s end is typical, a good many students left long before now.  

“They’ve all moved their classes online because, one, it’s more convenient, but, also, the campus made a good policy of working with the students in the way they need to be worked with,” said Andrew Tucker, a Moscow resident, speaking on NewsNation’s “Rush Hour.”     

“Terror ran through the neighborhood — it ran through the community — and I’m sure there were moms and dads saying, ‘get your stuff, get in your car and come home now,’” Joseph Scott Morgan, a Jacksonville State forensics professor, said.   

Morgan, who is also a host of the podcast “Body Bags,” said those students going home potentially took important clues with them. And while Zoom and phone calls are available, they just don’t cut it with detectives.  

“If you have an interviewer that’s sitting there, they can ask that question and elicit a response and get that little piece of information that might lead back to something else, like If they heard something or if they saw something. ‘Have you ever met this person?’ ‘Yeah, I have.’ ‘Well, where were you? Oh, really? You were there?’ So that’s gone,” Morgan said.   

Artsy and funky, the small city of Moscow, Idaho, is like many college towns in that it attracts drifters and others drawn to the vitality of campus life.  

That nonstudent population, however, has no roots and is not easily trackable.  

“It would truly have to be very transient for that to cause problems. I think most of the time, those smaller colleges tend to be very homey, and you know each other,” retired FBI Agent Kathy Guider said on “Rush Hour” Tuesday.  

Only, some of those very students who might hold a critical clue that could crack the case wide open are no longer within easy reach of detectives.  

“It’s not like you’re in Small Town, USA, where people have lived there for generations, and they aren’t going anywhere, and their homes are there. That’s not the case. People go home and sometimes they do not come back,” Morgan said.  

Blaine Eckles, vice provost for student affairs and dean of students at the University of Idaho, said about one-third of the students living in dorms did not come back to campus after Thanksgiving. And this week’s final exams are all online.

(NewsNation) — Officials are preparing for the end of Title 42, a public health policy born of the pandemic that allowed border officials to turn away migrants at the border to curb the spread of COVID-19. But daily crossings haven’t stopped and shelters in El Paso are at capacity.

The sector’s Border Patrol facility is maxed out, too.

More than 5,600 migrants remain in Border Patrol custody — in a facility suited to hold just 3,000 people. Customs and Border Patrol officials have warned that ending Title 42 could lead to a further influx of migrant arrivals.

The agency has used the policy to turn away more than 1 million people at the nation’s land crossings since Title 42 was invoked under former President Donald Trump in March 2020.

Wind and temperatures cold enough to produce flurries overnight on Monday led some migrants to sleep in a downtown El Paso, Texas, parking garage.

Elsewhere, migrants crossing through Yuma, Arizona’s Cocopah Gap faced similar conditions Tuesday, warming themselves over small, man-made fires as they waited at the border in 37-degree weather.

The U.S. Border Patrol’s acting El Paso Sector Chief Peter Jaquez said there has been on average about 2,400 daily migrant encounters involving people crossing into the area over the past weekend.

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas visited El Paso Tuesday to assess the situation.

During his visit, Mayorkas said the administration is talking with the Mexican government, but declined to go into detail, the El Paso Times reported.

Border Patrol agents were instructed to process as many people as possible by any means necessary ahead of the visit, sources told NewsNation.

San Diego, California, Mayor Todd Gloria fears that unless Mayorkas and Congress can come together on immigration reform, the situation on either side of the border won’t improve, NewsNation’s affiliate Border Report said.

While some who cross the nation’s southern border have a family member or sponsor to help them, others spent recent days on the streets in near-freezing conditions. 

City police said they made calls seeking accommodations for migrants without shelter, but so far have been unsuccessful.

In the meantime, a local ordinance that bars camping means migrants were forced to pack up and leave.

“I think the only thing that could help this situation is to help them in their own countries, but that’s something that we can’t do,” said El Paso resident Cristina Zapata. “So, for now, all we can do is just feed them and make sure they’re OK.”

Zapata handed out coffee and bags of McDonald’s food at one of the migrant camps Tuesday. Groups of volunteers have dwindled since the summer, but the need remains, she said.

“They just want to go and get to their families,” Zapata said. “That’s all they want. So if people would come and help, maybe all these people could leave. But no one comes and helps, so they have to stay.” 

El Paso County has recognized that need. The county recently announced it would consider expanding a Migrant Support Services Center that opened in response to the last wave, to a larger location. 

One group from Nicaragua told NewsNation they had no money for food and hoped to work in the U.S. — an option Zapata says they should have.

“If my kids were ever in this situation, I would want someone to help them, you know,” she said.

The migrants who have been released by Border Patrol have been processed by agents and are now free to continue their journey.

Many of them will be required to contact an ICE office when they reach their destination. Others were given court dates, which could be scheduled for two to five years into future.

Negotiators in the U.S. Congress on Tuesday said they had reached agreement on funding the government through the end of its current fiscal year, as lawmakers scampered to meet a midnight Friday deadline when existing funds expire.

They did not say how much money they had agreed on, providing no details in statements from three key appropriations negotiators, Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, Republican Senator Richard Shelby and Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro.

“If all goes well, we should be able to finish an omnibus appropriations package by Dec. 23,” Shelby said in a statement.

The news came hours after the House began moving a stopgap spending bill to avoid a partial shutdown that would otherwise begin on Friday, providing time to pass the sweeping full-year bill, which was expected to include more than $1.5 trillion in funding and will run through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, 2023.

A first, procedural vote on the stopgap legislation was set for Wednesday.

The full-year “omnibus” bill is also expected to contain new emergency funds to aid Ukraine in its battle against Russian forces.

Ukraine could get billions more, after Biden asked Congress last month for $37 billion.

It also is expected to fold in an unrelated bill reforming the way Congress certifies U.S. presidential elections.

The latter is aimed at avoiding a repeat of the deadly turmoil of Jan. 6, 2021, when supporters of then-President Donald Trump tried to stop the certification of Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had said his Republicans want work on the omnibus bill wrapped up by Dec. 22. “We intend to be on the road going home on the 23rd,” he told reporters ahead of the agreement.

Any negotiations on the funding bill would get more complicated next year, when Republicans take majority control of the House.

Conservative Republicans have been clamoring for deep domestic spending cuts Democrats want to avoid.

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More of Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s economic policy team took shape on Tuesday, with Workers Party (PT) veteran Aloizio Mercadante running development bank BNDES and a former banker taking a key role at the Economy Ministry.

Brazilian financial markets reacted as Lula named Mercadante as investors gauged the possible return of the PT’s intervention in long-term credit markets.

Brazil’s currency gave back gains and the Bovespa stock index deepened losses, dropping 1.71% after reports of the new role for Mercadante, who also served as chief of staff to Lula’s PT successor following his 2003-2010 presidency, former President Dilma Rousseff. , (.BVSP)

Incoming Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said separately on Tuesday that former investment bank Banco Fator Chief Executive Gabriel Galipolo would be appointed as his executive secretary, underscoring an emphasis on public-private partnerships in the next administration.

The former banker, whose new role was first reported by Reuters on Tuesday, has advised several public-private partnerships as managing partner at the Galipolo Consultancy since leaving Banco Fator.

Seen as an economist with connections across the ideological spectrum, Galipolo helped set up meetings between Haddad and business leaders during this year’s election, when the incoming finance minister ran a failed Sao Paulo gubernatorial campaign.

Galipolo has co-authored books and articles with Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo, a longtime Lula adviser and economics professor at Unicamp, considered a center of heterodox economic thought.

He also served as an economic adviser in the Sao Paulo state government under center-right Governor José Serra.

By contrast, Mercadante has long been a prominent member of Lula’s Workers Party, as lawmaker in both chambers of Congress and in several roles in Rousseff’s Cabinet.

A member of Lula’s transition team, Mercadante took part in a recent news conference stressing the need to reform how BNDES charges interest rates to lenders.

Brazil’s central bank, which is now formally independent from the president’s Cabinet, has openly opposed a return to state-subsidized long-term credit, which would likely reduce the impact of monetary policy.

In his first press conference late afternoon, Haddad also appointed economist Bernard Appy as the country’s special secretary for tax reform, which he highlighted will be a priority in the new government.

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All his life, Donald Trump had gotten away with things. Time after time after time, he’d skirted with criminality. And time and again, he’d emerged unscathed. Not this time. “Trump faces peril in Docs probe after decades of scrutiny.” That’s the headline in an AP article. Think about all the horrible things Donald Trump has done. There are many. One would need to write a manuscript to count them all.

But perhaps none of these things have come back to bite him the way the paper scandal has. Paper. Such a simple word. Paper, however, tells stories. And the story that the paper is telling right now is that Donald Trump is a thief.

By stealing classified documents — Trump perhaps entangled himself in a trap he can’t get out of. Where are the rest of the documents? Where are all the papers? There are trails and trails of paper. And more paper keeps being found in unlikely places like storage units.

One needs to ask themselves — where are they going to turn up next? Under his pillow? Beneath is McDonald’s bag? Nothing would be surprising at this point. In the article from AP I referenced above, it says: “He’s perhaps never confronted a probe as perilous as this.”

I agree. Trump has left himself vulnerable. The man who never lets his hands get dirty has muddied them beyond recognition. He could be looking at espionage charges. He could be facing charges of obstruction of justice. All because of paper. Paper which was not — and will never be — his.

For years, Palmer Report has said Donald Trump is not nearly as threatening as he (and some in the media) would like us to believe — that he is a paper tiger. He, like all paper tigers, is weak and ineffectual.

Donald Trump will likely be indicted. He will be indicted because he is a thief — a paper thief. He will be indicted because — finally — at long last — he got his hands dirty.

He made a precious mistake, one many criminals make. He assumed he was invincible. He isn’t. He is weak. He is a paper tiger. And his denials are not worth the paper they’re printed on.

The post Paper tiger appeared first on Palmer Report.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D.) this week warned that California would experience an unsustainable flow of illegal immigrants once President Joe Biden reverses the Trump administration’s border policy.

“The fact is, what we’ve got right now is not working and is about to break in a post-42 world unless we take some responsibility and ownership,” the governor told ABC News Monday.

Newsom’s comments allude to the Biden administration’s plan to next week lift Title 42, a Trump-era policy that allows law enforcement to quickly expel illegal immigrants. The governor also complained about the Biden administration’s decision to send “planes and buses to California full of migrants because of all the good work … the state is doing for the immigrant community,” ABC News’s Sacramento, Calif., affiliate reported.

Newsom’s apparent criticism of Biden’s immigration moves is new for the governor known for tweeting condemnations of Texas and Florida, whose Republican governors have transported busloads of illegal immigrants to liberal enclaves like Martha’s Vineyard and Washington, D.C. Newsom also raised his national profile by fighting President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.

Now, it seems, he will miss at least some aspects of Trump’s pandemic policy.

“I’m saying that as a father,” Newsom said. “I’m saying that as someone that feels responsible for being part of the solution and I’m trying to do my best here.”

Newsom added that he didn’t mean “to point fingers.”

Spokesmen for Newsom and the Department of Homeland Security did not immediately respond when the Washington Free Beacon asked how many immigrants the federal government has sent to California this year.

The Newsom team did not give California reporters advance warning of his border visit, which ABC said was apparently only covered by national press.

The post ‘About to Break’: Newsom Says Feds Are Overwhelming California With Immigrants appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.