The European Commission wants to increase EU clout in the strategically important Black Sea region, countering Russian influence through closer collaboration with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“Against a backdrop of Russia breaching airspace, attacking ports and shipping routes … front and center of this work is improving security in the region,” EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday, unveiling a new strategy for the region.

The Black Sea is a body of water bordering seven countries with its coast spanning two EU member states — Bulgaria and Romania— as well as EU accession candidates Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine, plus Russia. Moldova, another aspiring EU state, also has access via the Danube River.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Black Sea has been both a theatre of combat and the site of Russian blockades of Ukrainian grain exports, which are key to world food security.

More recently, the EU has grown concerned about potential Russian attacks on critical undersea infrastructure like cables needed for internet and communications as well as so-called “shadow fleet” shipping that helps Russia skirt EU sanctions on its oil exports, Kallas said.

What is the EU proposing?

In general, the plan is to further build on trade, energy and transport cooperation.

The most concrete aspect of the new proposal is to set up a “maritime security hub” to enhance “situational awareness and information sharing on the Black Sea, real-time monitoring from space to seabed, and early warning of potential threats and malicious activities,” according to the strategy document.

Kallas said it could also help monitor a potential future ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Another goal is to support the buildup of regional transport infrastructure, in part “to improve military mobility so troops and equipment can be where they are needed, when they are needed,” Kallas said.

However, where the hub would be based and which countries would be involved is not clear, nor is there any clarity on which financial resources would be allocated to it.

How might Black Sea countries respond?

While most Black Sea countries apart from Russia are on cooperative terms with the EU, some are more closely aligned with the 27-country bloc’s agenda than others.

The governments of Ukraine and Moldova are striving to join the EU. Georgia and Turkey are also EU candidate countries although their bids to join are currently frozen. Armenia has drawn closer to the EU in recent years while Azerbaijan has a complex relationship with Russia and the EU.

Turkey is a close partner of the EU and member of the military alliance NATO but as a strong regional player, it also has its own interests to consider.

Like Russia, Turkey also has an interest in keeping the US and other NATO countries out of the Black Sea region, Stefan Meister, head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP, said. Ankara is hedging its bets, fulfilling its obligations to NATO while trying not to provoke Moscow, he notes.

Ankara “understands Russia as a security threat, supports Ukraine in the war and does not agree with the Russian annexation of Crimea,” Meister told DW. “But it benefits from the Western sanctions, still buys Russian resources and benefits from the trade with Ukraine.” 

EU relationship with Black Sea region has changed

The EU first started taking a keener interest in the Black Sea region, which was traditionally dominated by Russia and Turkey, after Bulgaria and Romania joined the bloc in 2007. It is not alone: China has also increased its footprint there. Last year the Georgian government awarded the tender to construct a deep sea port at Anaklia to a Chinese conglomerate that includes entities under US sanctions.

Meister says it is a good thing that the EU is looking to take a more active role in security in the Black Sea with a monitoring hub. But much was still unclear, he stressed, referring to the lack of further details on participation, financing and resources for the new security hub.

On Wednesday, the European Commission said the next step would be to gather ministers from EU member states and Black Sea countries to discuss how to take the proposal forward. 

The European Union aims to strengthen its presence in the Black Sea, a region of renewed geostrategic value, by setting up a security hub that would protect critical infrastructure, remove naval mines, combat hybrid threats, mitigate environmental risks and ensure freedom of navigation for commerce.

The hub is primarily designed to counter Russia’s expansionism in Eastern Europe and could eventually be employed to monitor and sustain a peace settlement in Ukraine.

“The Black Sea region is of great strategic importance to the European Union because of the connection (between) Central Asia and Europe. It is important because of security, trade and energy,” High Representative Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday as she unveiled a new strategy to bolster ties with the Black Sea.

“But the region’s potential is marred by Russia’s war. Recurring airspace violations and attacks on ports and shipping lanes highlight this reality.”

Notably, the strategy, which also touches upon transport, energy, digital networks, trade, climate change and the blue economy, lacks a specific financial envelope to realise its ambitions and instead builds upon other programmes under the EU budget, such as SAFE, the new €150-billion initiative of low-interest loans to boost defence spending.

The funding, location and operational model of the security hub will depend on the negotiations of the bloc’s next seven-year budget, Kallas said.

The European Commission is expected to present the much-anticipated proposal for the 2028-2032 budget before the end of the year. The draft will then kick-start a prolonged, complex and possibly explosive debate among governments.

Brussels hopes the magnified importance of the Black Sea, which encompasses 174 million people, two member states (Romania and Bulgaria) and four candidates to join the bloc (Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia), will convince capitals to bet on the strategy and provide the necessary funds. The plan may also benefit from the fiscal effort that most member states will have to make to meet NATO’s likely future 5% of GDP target.

Chasing the ‘shadow fleet’

One of the main threats that inspired the strategy is the “shadow fleet”, the old-age tankers that Russia has deployed to circumvent the G7 price cap on seaborne oil.

The fleet, present in both the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, uses obscure insurance and ownership to escape the surveillance of Western allies and engages in illicit practices at sea, such as transmitting false data and becoming invisible to satellite systems. Its condition is so poor that it has stoked fears of an environmental disaster.

In recent months, “shadow fleet” vessels have been accused of engaging in sabotage and vandalism against the EU’s critical infrastructure, fuelling calls for hard-hitting sanctions. Estonia has warned that Moscow is ready to provide military assistance to protect the decrepit tankers from inspections and seizures.

On Wednesday, Kallas admitted the “shadow fleet” was becoming a “bigger problem” for the EU. “We see our adversaries finding new ways to use it,” she said.

Asked if Brussels should set up an EU-wide military mission to keep a closer eye on the “shadow fleet”, Kallas appeared open to the idea but acknowledged the limitations imposed by international law, which provides for the right of innocent passage that compels all states to guarantee unimpeded, non-discriminatory transit.

The right entails a heavy burden of proof to justify the intervention of a foreign vessel.

“The discussions are ongoing,” Kallas said. “We need to work also with our intentional partners to address these concerns (such as) when you can stop the ships. They need much broader attention than only the European Union.”