U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries may be poised to become the first Black Speaker of the House — if Democrats are successful in flipping the Republican-majority House of Representatives on Election Day. 

Before Nov. 5, Republicans held a narrow majority in the House, 220-212. But with several key seats in play — including a handful of hotly-contested races in New York — Democrats may be able to regain control.

That would likely make Jeffries the top Democrat in Congress, and one of the most powerful men in Washington, D.C. The House will officially vote for a Speaker on Jan. 3, 2025, but Democrats are widely in agreement that Jeffries — who was elected House Minority Leader in Nov. 2022 — would take the role.  

Whichever party wins the House is expected to take it by a slim margin, according to Reuters, with tight Congressional races in Virginia and North Carolina. But Democrats are also looking to unseat Republicans in New York — and to hold on to a few key seats.

In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans secured narrow victories in several districts, including NY-4 on Long Island, NY-19 upstate, and NY-22 near Syracuse. Democrats are fighting to take back those seats, and a few others, including NY-1 in Nassau County, where incumbent Republican Nick LaLota is facing a challenge from Democrat John Avlon.

Jeffries himself attended a rally for Avlon on Long Island on Nov. 3. In a post about the rally on X, Avlon called Jeffries the “soon-to-be-Speaker.” 

Gov. Kathy Hochul and other New York congress members have similarly showed support for Democratic candidates, hoping to shore up their own positions and take back the House. 

The outcomes of some tight races may not be clear until several days after the election, as officials count early and mail-in votes — but the New York Times predicts concrete results out of New York late on election night, or early the following morning. 

What happens if Democrats take the House?

If Democrats do manage to flip the House, Jeffries will replace current Speaker Mike Johnson, a conservative from Louisiana who House Republicans nominated for the role after trying — and failing — to vote three other candidates into the role. 

The Speaker of the House is the top legislator in the U.S., and oversees all happenings in the House, including introducing and voting on bills. They are also responsible for liaising between the House, the Senate, and the White House, and play a key role in government spending.

One of the first things Congress will do in the new year is certify the election on Jan. 6 in a joint session called by the Speaker of the House.

In recent weeks, Jeffries and Johnson have reportedly argued over certification. Democrats have vowed to certify the results no matter who wins — but worry that Republicans might try to stand in the way of a potential Harris victory. In September, Johnson said the House would certify the results “if we have a free, fair and safe election,” sparking concerns that Trump could influence Republicans to deny valid results, as they did in 2021. 

If Jeffries is made Speaker, after certifying the election, he would proceed with the day-to-day responsibilities of the role — and would continue to serve as representative for NY-8. The former state Assembly Member was elected to Congress in 2012, and has represented the same district since he took office in 2013. 

Last year, in his first inaugural address after he became Minority Leader, Jeffries vowed to keep fighting for Brooklynites despite his new position.

“No matter what responsibilities I will now have down in Washington, D.C., I want you to understand I will never walk away from you and I will always have your back,” he said in Jan. 2023. “It has been the professional honor of my life to serve you in the United States Congress.”

Since throwing his hat in the ring for Minority Leader in 2022, Jeffries has provided millions of dollars in funding for Brooklyn nonprofits and other local projects, but has faced criticism from locals who say he should be doing more for Brooklynites and for the U.S. at large.

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