A federal law prohibiting marijuana users from possessing firearms is unconstitutional, a federal judge in Oklahoma has concluded, citing last year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that significantly expanded gun rights.

U.S. District Judge Patrick Wyrick, an appointee of former Republican President Donald Trump in Oklahoma City, on Friday dismissed an indictment against a man charged in August with violating that ban, saying it infringed his right to bear arms under the U.S. Constitution’s Second Amendment.

Wyrick said that while the government can protect the public from dangerous people possessing guns, it could not argue Jared Harrison’s “mere status as a user of marijuana justifies stripping him of his fundamental right to possess a firearm.”

He said using marijuana was “not in and of itself a violent, forceful, or threatening act,” and noted that Oklahoma is one of a number of states where the drug, still illegal under federal law, can be legally bought for medical uses.

“The mere use of marijuana carries none of the characteristics that the Nation’s history and tradition of firearms regulation supports,” Wyrick wrote.

Laura Deskin, a public defender representing Harrison, said the ruling was a “step in the right direction for a large number of Americans who deserve the right to bear arms and protect their homes just like any other American.” She called marijuana the most commonly used drug illegal at the federal level.

The U.S. Department of Justice did not respond to request for comment but is likely to appeal.

The decision marked the latest instance of a court declaring a gun regulation unconstitutional after the U.S. Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority in June ruled that the Second Amendment protects a person’s right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense.

That ruling, New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, announced a new test for assessing firearms laws, saying restrictions must be “consistent with this nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

On Thursday, the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals cited that decision in declaring unconstitutional a federal law barring people under domestic violence restraining orders from owning firearms.

(JTA) — Germany held a ceremony to celebrate the first German-Jewish sites to be given UNESCO’s World Heritage designation on Wednesday.

The sites in the upper part of the Rhine River valley are known as the origin point of Ashkenazi culture and where the Yiddish language first began to develop over 1,000 years ago. They were recognized by UNESCO, the United Nations’ education and cultural body, in July 2021, but the coronavirus pandemic delayed Germany’s celebration of the designation.

UNESCO recognized the Speyer Jewry-Court, a synagogue and yeshiva complex in the city of Speyer; the Worms Synagogue Compound; the Old Jewish Cemetery of Worms, the oldest known in-situ Jewish cemetery in Europe; and the Old Jewish Cemetery of Mainz.

“The unique community centres and cemeteries have had a lasting impact on the material Ashkenazic culture and are directly and tangibly associated with the creative achievements of the early Ashkenazic scholars,” UNESCO’s listing explains.

President Frank Walter-Steinmeier visited a synagogue in Mainz on Wednesday.

“Before July 27, 2021, there were 49 World Heritage sites in our country, from Roman Trier to the old Hanseatic cities of Stralsund and Wismar, from Aachen Cathedral to Wartburg Castle near Eisenach. The list reflected the diversity of culture and nature, but it had a large gap: there were no Jewish cultural monuments,” Steinmeier said in his address. 

The mikvah, or ritual bath, in Speyer, Germany, seen Jan. 24, 2023, dates back to the 12th century. It’s known as the oldest remaining intact mikvah in Europe. (Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images) Image by

He was joined at the celebration by Audrey Azoulay, the director general of UNESCO. Azoulay, a French Jew, is the daughter of Andre Azoulay, a Moroccan-born Jewish banker who currently serves as an advisor to Morocco’s King Mohammed VI.

Steinmeier stressed how the sites give evidence that Jewish history in Germany, both good and bad, stretches far beyond the Holocaust. The cities of Speyer, Mainz and Worms were the sites of large scale massacres of Jews during the Crusades and the 14th-century bubonic plague epidemic, but they were also the home of some of the greatest leaders of European Jewry, such as the famed Torah commentator known as Rashi. 

“For centuries, Jews in Germany were seen as strangers, as others. They were repeatedly humiliated, excluded, deprived of their rights, persecuted, murdered — even before the National Socialists and their willing executors almost completely wiped out Jewish life in Germany and Europe,” Steinmeier said. “The monuments and gravestones in Speyer, Worms and Mainz tell of the deep roots of the Jews in our country, of the flourishing of their culture, of self-assertion and emancipation, of times of peaceful coexistence with the Christian majority.”

This article originally appeared on JTA.org.

The post Germany celebrates UNESCO World Heritage listing for sites known as the birthplace of Yiddish and Ashkenazi culture appeared first on The Forward.

(JTA) — “Hi, my name is Dan. I’m 11 years old and I like doing magic and circus skills, especially unicycling. I’m here today to testify against House Bill 170, 183, and 337,” a young voice said into the microphone.

“I really like to play sports with my friends, although honestly I’m not very good at it,” he added. “I’d really like the chance to play.”

Dan — a transgender boy whose parents asked that his last name not be used — was the youngest person to testify at the Missouri State House last week in opposition to eight bills heard in the chamber that would restrict trans children from participating in sports that align with their gender identity and limit their access to specialized medical care.

He was also part of a delegation of Missouri’s Jewish community members, alongside a few Christian clergy, that has been consistently appearing at the state Capitol to advocate for trans rights in response to a slew of bills that activists say violate their religious freedoms and cause significant harm to the LGBTQ community.

Daniel Bogard, the rabbi at Central Reform Congregation in St. Louis and the parent of a trans child, was at the State House Jan. 24 and again on Feb. 1 to support those testifying against the bills and to lobby lawmakers against them. He is a frequent visitor to Jefferson City as a trans rights activist, saying the possibility of restrictions on medical care are what scare him the most. One piece of legislation would bar physicians and health care professionals from providing gender affirmation procedures to anyone under 18. It would also deny access to medication like puberty blockers, which are administered to delay the onset of puberty.

“What we want to do is we want to protect kids from unnecessary and harmful surgeries and medications,” said Brad Hudson, a Republican representative and one of the sponsors of the bill. “I say harmful because giving kids puberty blockers cross-sex hormones and even transgender surgery violates the first duty of medicine, do no harm.” (The Transgender Center at St. Louis Children’s Hospital and other providers say they are generally considered safe to use.)

Hudson also identified himself in his testimony that he is a Christian pastor, and said that his worldview is one in which human beings are created “in the image and likeness of their Creator.”

“Those are the bills that criminalize treating your child as every medical and psychological mainstream organization recommends,” Bogard countered. “And that means parents are left with a choice of not giving these kids the sorts of treatment and care that are best practice according to everything that we know, or fleeing the state, or staying and risking some sort of criminal charge. The one that terrifies me is the idea of DSS [Department of Social Services] agents showing up to my door to take my kid away.”

Bogard, who has been going to the state Capitol for five years now, says the experience of being back at the State Legislature has been simultaneously “awful and affirming.”

With only 25 hours of advance notice, the group going to testify in Jefferson City had to leave St. Louis at 5:30 am in order to make it on time. (Courtesy of Daniel Bogard) Image by

“What’s remarkable is you go in and two-thirds of the people who are sponsoring these bills or testifying in favor of these bills are using overtly Christian theological language when they’re talking about the why,” he explained. “And then you look around and the people who are showing up to protect trans kids are Jews.”

“I’m just so proud of our Jewish community, the way we have shown up around this issue here in Missouri,” Bogard said, remarking on the decades-long history of Jewish-led LGBTQ advocacy in the state. (The founder of the statewide LGBTQ advocacy group PROMO, which is not itself a Jewish group, was founded by Rabbi Susan Talve, one of the founding members of Bogard’s synagogue. Shira Berkowitz, a Jewish summer camp friend of Bogard’s, is the senior director of public policy and advocacy at the organization, and last year, Bogard and Berkowitz launched a summer camp for trans kids.)

The new principal of Saul Mirowitz Jewish Community School, Raquel Scharf-Anderson, made the two-hour drive early on Jan. 24 to testify on behalf of her students.

“I make all of my decisions in the best interest of children,” Scharf-Anderson told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. “Anything that would impact the students in my school, I want them to see me standing with them.”

The sports bills in particular, she said, would impact trans students at private schools, like Mirowitz.

Over the course of the Jan. 24 hearing, Rachel Aguirre, a special education teacher who ran unsuccessfully for State Senate in the Republican primary in 2022, argued that the government was “founded upon the word of God,” and therefore athletes should only play on teams whose gender matches the sex they were assigned at birth. Nancy Delcour, another witness testifying in favor of the bill, also cited the biblical principle that humankind was created in God’s image, and an attempt to change that is the work of Satan.

Before the nine-hour long hearing was over, another interpretation of the principle of “the image of God” was explored on the hearing room floor.

“As a Jew, this is something that speaks to me quite a bit. We call it ‘b’tzelem Elokim’ — ‘created in the image of God,’ literally,” said Russel Neiss, a Jewish educator and technologist and the parent of a trans child. “But the way we understand this is that God bestows a special honor onto humans that requires that we need to be treated with dignity and we need to treat others with dignity.”

Maharat Rori Picker Neiss, the executive director of the Jewish Community Relations Council of St. Louis, a rabbi, and the wife of Russel Neiss, also testified against the bills and in support of their child.

“Sitting here for the past two hours has been one of the most painful things that I’ve ever had to do as a mother and we’ve been doing this for four years,” she said. Picker-Neiss stayed home from the Jan. 31 Senate hearing for the first time in four years — but was back at the Capitol fighting for her child’s rights by the next day.

Next week, as another bill limiting what can be said about trans identity in schools makes its way through the Missouri chambers, Scharf-Anderson says school leadership will return to the state Capitol.

“We know that children imitate what we do, and we want to make sure that we’re being good role models for them,” she said. “And we will continue to stand by the children that we need to support who are part of our school and in our broader community.”

This article originally appeared on JTA.org.

The post Missouri Jewish leaders advocate for trans rights at state legislature appeared first on The Forward.

iStock; Michael Conroy/AP; Jacquelyn Martin, File/AP; Darron Cummings/AP; Michael Conroy/AP; Rebecca Zisser/Insider

• In years past, former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would have been an ideal GOP Senate candidate.
• But this week, Daniels — opposed by social conservatives — announced that he would skip a campaign.
• Daniels’ decision offers a look at the obstacles that the party continues to face headed in 2024.

In the Republican Party of the 1990s and 2000s, former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would have been seen by most traditional conservatives as an ideal candidate to run for the Senate.

But after Daniels visited Capitol Hill last week, he announced on Tuesday that he would pass on a Senate bid in 2024, which will be an open seat contest due to Republican Sen. Mike Braun’s decision to run for governor.

“After what I hope was adequate reflection, I’ve decided not to become a candidate for the US Senate,” Daniels first told Politico in a statement. “With full credit and respect for the institution and those serving in it, I conclude that it’s just not the job for me, not the town for me, and not the life I want to live at this point.”

While Daniels, 73, won’t be going back to Washington anytime soon, the repercussions of his decision will shape the still-fluid GOP Senate field. Rep. Jim Banks is seen as the early frontrunner for the party’s nomination, while Gov. Eric Holcomb remains in the mix as a potential candidate.

Once a GOP ideal

Daniels checks off all the boxes of a top-tier GOP figure: former Senate chief of staff for onetime Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, former Office of Management and Budget director under President George W. Bush, former two-term governor, and the ex-president of Purdue University — one of the most influential research universities in the state.

During Daniels’ 2004 gubernatorial bid, the slogan “My Man Mitch” — an old nickname given to him by Bush — was synonymous with his campaign, which was strongly backed by the then-president. And when Daniels ran for reelection in 2008, his nearly 18-point victory coincided with then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s stunning one-point presidential win in the traditionally conservative Hoosier State, a reflection of the governor’s strong GOP support and crossover appeal with Independents.

Daniels is in many ways cut from the same cloth as Lugar — who served in the Senate from 1977 to 2013 before his death in 2019 — embracing traditional GOP fiscal conservatism while steering clear of divisive social issues.

His decision that a tough, contested primary was unpleasant, undesirable, or unwinnable points to larger questions: Is there still room in a Republican primary for a candidate like Daniels? And what does Daniels’ decision say about the party headed into 2024?

Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels rose through the ranks of Republican politics years before Donald Trump reshaped the party.

AP Photo/Tom Strickland, File

The GOP remains in a ‘Trumpified’ state

In 2010, when Daniels was eyeing a potential 2012 presidential candidacy, he upset many Republicans when he told The Weekly Standard — the now-defunct conservative magazine — that the next commander-in-chief “would have to call a truce on the so-called social issues” and instead focus on more pressing economic and foreign policy matters.

Daniels — who was succeeded in the governor’s mansion by future Vice President Mike Pence — would eventually pass on a presidential bid, citing his family’s reluctance to endure such a campaign.

And in January 2013, Daniels would begin a nearly decadelong stretch leading Purdue.

But as the former governor made waves in the halls of academia, Donald Trump burst onto the national political scene, reshaping the Republican Party into one that was less conciliatory and more aggressive in pushing an “America First” philosophy, which disrupted the very international order that had long been embraced by moderates from both parties.

With Trump in office, Indiana Republicans became more powerful — and decidedly more conservative, capturing huge majorities in the state legislature and ousting moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in the 2018 midterms.

The ascendancy of social conservatives

As an ally of former President Trump and the onetime chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Banks, 43, is emblematic of the huge sway of social conservatives in Indiana.

Michael R. Wolf, a political science professor and department chair at Purdue University Fort Wayne, told Insider that had Daniels joined the race, he would’ve had to “fend off the young, up-and-coming” candidacy represented by Banks.

“The fact that Banks could have potentially run someone like Mitch Daniels out kind of indicates — at least in a Republican primary — where things are,” Wolf said.

The Club for Growth, the influential conservative nonprofit group, last month threw its support behind Banks’ Senate campaign, and also launched an ad discouraging Daniels from entering the race. In the ad, the Club for Growth knocks Daniels’ time as Bush’s OMB director, accusing him of having “caved in to big-spending Republicans” while showing an image of the former president — a reflection of the no-holds-barred stance of conservatives in the Trump era.

And on Wednesday, Trump himself formally endorsed Banks’ Senate candidacy.

Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb is a potential candidate in the 2024 Indiana Republican Senate primary.

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Daniels’ decision puts other Republicans on notice

While there is certainly no shortage of eager Republican politicians in Indiana, which Trump won by 16 points in 2020, Daniels’ decision to skip the Senate race puts a greater spotlight on a potential candidate like Holcomb.

Conservatives appear poised to coalesce around Banks, who is seen as one of their own and would likely be a solid general election candidate in a state that in recent years has taken on a deeper shade of red.

But Holcomb, who was easily reelected to a second term as governor in 2020, has deep ties to Daniels — serving as an advisor to the then-governor and rising to the position of deputy chief of staff in his administration, while also managing the then-governor’s reelection campaign in 2008.

When Holcomb in December was asked by the Indianapolis television station WISH-TV about his political plans, he said that he would remain focused on the current legislative session.

“There’ll be time for me to think about the future in the future, but it would be next to irresponsible for me to take my eye off the job that I’ve got,” he told the outlet at the time.

Holcomb has compiled a decidedly pro-business record as governor, but in today’s GOP, that just isn’t enough to win a primary anymore.

Rep. Victoria Spartz — a native of Ukraine who has raised her national profile over the past year as a critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — was mulling a Senate bid but on Friday announced that she wouldn’t seek the seat, nor would she run for reelection to the House in 2024.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has emphasized the importance of “candidate quality” in Senate races.

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Indiana could drive the GOP Senate roadmap

Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans anticipated making major gains in Congress, which eventually didn’t come to pass.

While the GOP did win back control the House, the party has an incredibly slim majority (222-212) in the lower chamber, as Democratic candidates held their own in swing districts across the country last November. 

And in the most competitive Senate races, Democratic candidates vastly outran President Joe Biden’s approval ratings — which for the past year have largely been mired in the low-to-mid 40s — while also picking up a Senate seat, which gave them a 51-49 majority.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky last August spoke of “candidate quality” as he explained the unique dynamics of individual races for the upper chamber — while at the same time downplaying predictions of a huge GOP wave.

Although Indiana is poised to back a GOP candidate like Banks next year, Donnelly in 2012 triumphed over the deeply flawed candidacy of then-State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, an anti-abortion conservative who during a debate spoke of abortion in terms that turned off many swing voters.

“I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen,” he said at the time, while arguing that abortions shouldn’t be allowed in the case of rape or incest.

Mourdock was one of several Senate candidates over the past two decades who faltered in winnable races for the GOP, something that McConnell would like to avoid again — if at all possible — next year.

Last week, McConnell met with both Banks and Daniels in Washington, with the congressman telling Politico that he had a “good” meeting with the longtime Senate Republican leader.

But with Republicans still in the minority in the Senate and the potential of Trump once again leading the GOP ticket in 2024, McConnell is surely eyeing the dynamics of the Indiana race even closer.

U.S. military fighter aircraft shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon as it floated off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday, drawing to a close a dramatic saga that shone a spotlight on worsening Sino-U.S. relations.

“We successfully took it down, and I want to compliment our aviators who did it,” President Joe Biden said.

Biden said he had issued an order on Wednesday to take down the balloon, but the Pentagon had recommended waiting until it could be done over open water.

Multiple fighter and refueling aircraft were involved in the mission, but only one — an F-22 fighter jet — took the shot, using a single AIM-9X missile, a senior U.S. military official said. The balloon was shot down about six nautical miles off the U.S. coast, the official said.

The shootdown came shortly after the U.S. government ordered a halt to flights in and out of three South Carolina airports — Wilmington, Myrtle Beach and Charleston — due to what it said at the time was an undisclosed “national security effort.” The flights resumed Saturday afternoon.

The balloon first entered a U.S. identification zone on Jan. 28, entered Canadian airspace three days later, and then re-entered U.S. airspace on Jan. 31, a U.S. defense official said.

U.S. officials had publicly disclosed the balloon’s presence over the United States on Thursday.

Washington has called it a “clear violation” of U.S. sovereignty.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin first announced the shootdown, saying the balloon was being used by China “in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States.”

A Reuters photographer who witnessed the shootdown said a stream came from a jet and hit the balloon, but there was no explosion. It then began to fall, the photographer said.

The U.S. military did not immediately recover the payload from the Chinese surveillance balloon, U.S. officials said.

The FAA had issued a temporary flight restriction to clear airspace around the South Carolina coast. The notice blocked flights to more than 100 square miles (260 square kilometers) — mostly over the Atlantic Ocean, according to a document posted by the FAA. The notice warned the military could use deadly force if airplanes violate the restrictions and do not comply with orders to leave.

The Reuters photographer in the Myrtle Beach area could see the suspected spy balloon overhead, with two U.S. military jets flying alongside it.

China expressed regret that an “airship” used for civilian meteorological and other scientific purposes had strayed into U.S. airspace.

China’s foreign ministry said on Saturday that the flight of the “airship” over the United States was a force majeure accident, and accused U.S. politicians and media of taking advantage of the situation to discredit Beijing.

The suspected Chinese spy balloon prompted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone a visit to China this week that had been expected to start on Friday.

The postponement of Blinken’s trip, which had been agreed to in November by Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, is a blow to those who saw it as an overdue opportunity to stabilize an increasingly fractious relationship between the two countries.

China is keen for a stable U.S. relationship so it can focus on its economy, battered by the now-abandoned zero-COVID policy and neglected by foreign investors alarmed by what they see as a return of state intervention in the market.

The Pentagon said on Friday that another Chinese balloon was observed over Latin America, without saying where exactly.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Going into Tuesday’s State of the Union address, President Joe Biden sees a nation with its future aglow.

Republicans take a far bleaker view — that the country is beset by crushing debt and that Biden is largely responsible for inflation. And the GOP now holds a House majority intent on blocking the president.

The harder reality is that the United States is on a tight rope, trying to balance efforts to reduce inflation with the need to stay upright and avoid falling into a recession. That’s with the seemingly inherent contradiction of a soaring job market and the unemployment rate at a near 54-year low.

Based on past speeches, Biden believes the policies adopted under his watch can fill the U.S. with new factories and protect against climate change. Roads, bridges, sewer systems, ports and internet service would be improved. The middle class would be more financially secure. So would America’s place in the global economy’s hierarchy.

On Friday, the president said the proof was in the January employment report. It showed 517,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, making it “crystal clear” that his “chorus of critics” were wrong.

“Here’s where we stand: The strongest job growth in history,” Biden said. “Put simply, I would argue the Biden economic plan is working.”

Republicans are pushing back. They blamed Biden’s trillion-dollar plus spending for high inflation and surging gas and food prices. GOP lawmakers want to repeal his tax increases and additional money for the IRS. They oppose his forgiveness of student debt and blame him for the migrants seeking to enter the country at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Neither side captures the fullness of the actual state of the economy.

One group of experts can read the data and claim a recession is on the horizon. A different group can focus on a separate set of figures and see reason to rejoice. It’s a disorienting moment.

Biden can celebrate the low jobless rate even as Republicans bemoan inflation that is still running dangerously hot.

“It’s the best of times and the worst of times for the U.S. economy, to borrow a phrase,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The economy is full of contradictions as it struggles to get beyond the massive global shocks of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Zandi said he expects the U.S. economy will “skirt” a recession this year, though many economists believe a downturn will come.

Gus Faucher, PNC Financial Services’ chief economist, pegs the odds of a recession this year at 60%. But he said any downturn would be “mild” because “worker shortages will limit layoffs, consumer balance sheets are in great shape, the banking system is solid.”

Most people in the U.S. assume the nation is already in a recession, even if they personally feel fine.

Only 24% of adults call the national economy good and 76% say conditions are poor, according to a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. At the same time, 57% say their personal financial situation is good. That’s unchanged since December, but it has eroded slightly since earlier last year when 62% felt positively about their finances.

The key force shaping the economy right now is the Federal Reserve, which has the mission of keeping prices stable and inflation at around 2%. Consumer prices jumped 6.5% last year.

To bring down inflation, the Fed has tried to slow down hiring and growth by raising its benchmark interest rate over the past year. When Biden delivered the State of the Union Address in 2022, the Fed’s benchmark rate was effectively near-zero. It’s now over 4.5%, the fastest increase in four decades, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the rate will likely go higher.

“Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone,” Powell told reporters after the Fed board’s most recent meeting.

The Fed rate increases mark a major reversal in how the economy operates.

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. central bank had held its benchmark rate near historic lows to bring back growth. That made it easier for tech start-ups because cheap money meant investors expected them to focus on growth instead of profits. Consumers got use to historically cheap rates for mortgages and auto loans.

The past year’s rate jumps produced a sudden whiplash. The stock market fell. Prominent tech companies such as Google and Microsoft recently announced layoffs. Even as computer chip companies began building new plants and crediting Biden’s policies, the world economy swung from a dearth of semiconductors to a glut. Mortgage rates initially doubled to over 7%, before falling back a bit to 6% last week. The big increase meant monthly payments became unaffordable for would-be homebuyers, forcing many to stay in rentals.

Glenn Kelman, CEO of the real estate brokerage Redfin, said the housing market is stronger than many people expected. But the years of low rates worsened generational inequality. Baby boomers became wealthy as their homes increased in value, but then rates jumped at the time when more millennials wanted to buy and they found themselves priced out.

“A generation ago, boomers owned 21% of U.S. wealth,” Kelman said. “For millennials, that number is 7%. They’re still on the outside looking in.”

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust, said he is surprised that the rate increases have hit housing but not employment. Traditional models assumed that efforts to lower inflation would automatically include job losses. But when he talks to companies, most are reluctant to fire their workers because businesses had trouble finding skilled employees during the pandemic.

“Because the supply of labor has been so starved for the past two years, firms are holding on to who they have,” Tannenbaum said. “The prevailing wisdom is if we have a recession it’s going to be shallow. Firms are going to want to be ready to go.”

As much as Biden says his mission is about giving Americans a sense of confidence, his challenge might rest with an economy in which few things are certain.

When the pandemic hit in 2020, the government aid was so overwhelming that a financial market crash turned into a rally. Biden tried to assure the country in 2021 that rising prices were a temporary inconvenience, only to find that inflation defined how many perceived his first two years as president. The expectation was that interest rate increases would ultimately lead to layoffs and higher unemployment, but hiring stayed robust in a sign that the economy is unmoored from traditional expectations.

If Biden faces a challenge on the economy, it might just be that no one really knows what could happen next.

“We’re in an environment where there is a lot of uncertainty,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The conflicting signals we keep getting on the economy make it very hard to get an accurate pulse.”