Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

• Stocks look ready for a ‘pause and pop’ between when the Fed pauses rate hikes and starts cutting, CFRA said. 
• Financial and homebuilding sectors historically perform best during the nine-month stretch between the Fed’s actions. 
• CFRA said the Fed may make its final rate hike of this cycle at the upcoming February 1 meeting. 

The Federal Reserve will unleash a “pause and pop” rally in the stock market when policy makers halt their interest rate hikes then shift to cutting down borrowing costs, according to CFRA. 

The independent research firm said Monday it believes the Fed’s rate hike on February 1 will be the last in its aggressive cycle that started from zero percent last year. Such a move would mark the Federal Open Market Committee’s eighth consecutive rate increase and would leave the Fed funds rate at a range of 4.5%-4.75%.

“Historically, the FOMC has started a new rate-easing cycle an average of nine months after the last rate hike. Should history repeat, the FOMC could start cutting rates toward the end of 2023, or early in 2024,” Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, said in a note. 

The nine-month gap between a Fed pause in rate hikes and the first interest rate cut usually results in a gain for the S&P 1500 index, he said. Data that run back to 1995 show 99% of S&P Global sub-industries on the S&P 1500 posted average price increases.

The top-performing sectors have been the financials and real estate groups, rising 22.5% and 20.1%, respectively. Materials and energy also move higher, but at smaller respective paces of 9.3% and 8.3%. 

The best sub-industry has been homebuilders with an advance of 36.6%, with CFRA calling homebuilder Lennar a representative company in that group as it’s had the highest return. 

Gold, meanwhile, has been the worst-performing subindustry with a loss of 7.1%. 

Stovall said CFRA apparently not alone in thinking the Fed is on the verge of pausing rate hikes, outpointing the S&P 500’s nearly 5% rise since the start of 2023. The S&P 1500 also risen nearly 5% during January. 

“Will investors sell on the news, or continue pushing share prices higher? If history is any guide, for it is never gospel, prices will likely head higher,” he said.

 

Vehicles are displayed at a Carvana dealership in Austin

Thomson Reuters

• Carvana shares surged 30% on Monday as the retailer extends its 2023 rally. 
• The company holds the second-highest short interest at 59%, according to MarketWatch.
• Traders are placing bets that the firm’s rally won’t last on looming bankruptcy concerns.

Carvana surged 30% on Monday as the online used-car retailer extends its massive 2023 rally.

Shares have soared 108% in the past month, after plunging 94% last year from rising inflation and falling used-car prices. The stock closed at $10.08 on Monday.

Short sellers are placing bets that the firm’s rally won’t last as it faces a slew of financial problems, including looming bankruptcy concerns. Additionally, Carvana stock will likely be sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s rate hike announcement later this week. 

The Arizona-based company holds the second-highest short interest at 59%, per MarketWatch, meaning that more than half of floating shares are in the hands of short sellers betting the stock will fall.

Meanwhile, Carvana is resorting to a “poison pill” strategy to deter hostile takeover attempts before the company can fix its financial issues.

But the Carvana rally is reminiscent of the meme-stock craze in 2021, when GameStop spiked 134% in a concerted effort by retail traders on Reddit to raise the value of the video game retailer’s stock. 

That created a so-called short squeeze in which retail traders target a stock with high short interest. Their coordinated purchases push a stock up, forcing short sellers to close their positions by buying the stock they’re betting against, adding further fuel to a rally.

“The world feels a lot scarier than it used to, and kids are experiencing a lot of anxiety and stress,” said Stew Friedman, a professor emeritus at The Wharton School.

Klaus Vedfelt/Getty Images

This story orginally published on April 13, 2022 and was updated on January 30, 2023.

Like many working moms, my workweek is calibrated with militaristic precision. I know exactly how long I can devote to each meeting and task and still have the bandwidth to do the afternoon soccer carpool, cook dinner, and help with homework at night. Which is why last Wednesday threw me off my game. 

I was on a tight deadline, but my mind was preoccupied with my younger daughter. She’d told me about some social dynamics at school that I didn’t like the sound of, so I’d scheduled a parent-teacher conference. Over Zoom, her teachers and I had a constructive — albeit emotional — conversation. 

Once that meeting finished, I had another over Zoom with my team, all while my deadline loomed. But the earlier conversation kept replaying in my head. I struggled through my afternoon, distracted and distraught. Needless to say, it was not my most productive workday. 

Like 43 million other workers in this country, I’m navigating the demands of a full-time career and parenthood roughly three years into a pandemic. It’s always been a juggling act for my husband and me to keep track of our daughters’ school projects, sports schedules, and extracurriculars, while also doing our jobs and living our adult lives. But since the pandemic, we’re also attending to our kids’ social-emotional health in ways we hadn’t anticipated.

Apparently, we’re not alone. A large new survey by Pew Research Center has found that American parents are finding the job much more difficult than they anticipated with mental health concerns topping the list of parental worries. Roughly 40% of US parents with children younger than 18 say they are extremely or very worried that their children might struggle with anxiety or depression at some point. 

Meanwhile, a survey from last year conducted by Nationwide Children’s Hospital found that more than half of working parents said they’d missed work at least once a month and/or had their workdays interrupted to deal with their child’s mental health. Between 30% and 50% of parents also said in the survey that they were distracted at work by thoughts about their child’s well-being, perhaps owing to the mental-health challenges so many kids are facing.

“Parents have always experienced psychological interference during their workdays, but it’s harder now because the demands on them are greater,” said Stew Friedman, a professor emeritus at The Wharton School and an expert on work-life integration. 

The upshot: Today’s working parents are under enormous pressure, and their stress has quickly gone from leaking into their professional life to crashing through the floodgates. It’s up to employers, experts say, to help working parents manage their priorities and offer flexibility to face this daunting reality. 

“The world feels a lot scarier than it used to, and kids are experiencing a lot of anxiety and stress,” Friedman said. “As a parent, it requires so much of your mind — even when you’re working.”

What is feels like to be a working parent right now

The mental load of parenting — which refers to the invisible work involved in keeping children functioning and a household running — is immense. Research has shown that mothers tend to carry a particularly heavy burden. 

Avni Patel Thompson, the founder and CEO of Milo, an app for working parents to tackle the challenge, identified four “roles” associated with mental load: human database, project manager, problem-solver, and chief memory maker. 

The human database remembers the kids’ shoe sizes and the pediatrician’s phone number. The project manager keeps track of who needs to be at the doctors’ appointments and baseball practice. The problem-solver remembers to register for camp or school and drafts contingencies if plans backfire. And the chief memory maker — which sounds a little squishy but is arguably the most important, Patel Thompson said — creates moments of joy along the way.

“Time with your kids is super precious, and when you’re a working parent, you may only have a couple hours together every day,” she said. “There’s work involved in figuring out — how are you maximizing that quality time?”

“Our kids need more from us than perhaps they ever have,” said Leslie Forde, the founder of Mom’s Hierarchy of Needs.

PhotoAlto/Getty Images

Today, amid the pandemic, mental load may include a fifth fundamental: psychological ninja. Research suggests that children’s depression and anxiety rates might have doubled since the start of the pandemic. And in October, the US Preventive Services Task Force, a group of government-backed experts, advised that all children be screened for anxiety starting as young as 8 years old. It marks the first time the panel has made such a recommendation.

“As parents, we have to pay close attention and notice things, and then go through the iterative process of checking in with our children,” said Leslie Forde, the founder of Mom’s Hierarchy of Needs, a consulting company that conducts research around maternal self-care and devises family-friendly policies for employers. 

In March 2020, Forde embarked on a research project that now includes 2,700 parents, mainly moms, centered around the pandemic’s effect on people’s work and lives. One of her primary findings is that parents today have a fierce and deeply felt concern over the mental health and well-being of their children, in addition to their own needs for greater mental-health support. 

Roughly two-thirds of parents of children under 18 met the criteria for burnout, according to research at Ohio State University published in May. Those results are based on a survey of nearly 1,300 parents.

“Our kids need more from us than perhaps they ever have,” Forde said. “And their needs are coming at a time when many parents, and especially moms, feel overwhelmed, fragile, and exhausted.”

How organizations and managers can help ease the burden

There are no easy solutions to such complex challenges. But experts say there are ways that organizations and individual managers can relieve some of the burden.

Recognizing the pressures that exist for working parents right now is a good starting point. After all, it’s not always easy for workers to bring up these issues. A Paychex survey of more than 1,000 full-time workers found that about half of all employees said they felt uncomfortable talking to their managers or supervisors about mental-health issues. 

That’s why expanding employee benefits, such as mental-health resources, caregiving, and sick leave, is so critical, Forde said. Employers must also heighten the awareness around the available benefits.

A government panel recently advised that all children be screened for anxiety starting as young as 8 years.

Halfpoint Images/Getty Images

Managers should take the opportunity to rethink expectations around availability and workload.

“The pandemic is still a constant source of strain, and few parents have the mental energy to be ‘always on’ at work,” Forde said. “Employers need to be understanding when caregiving needs interrupt the workday and provide flexibility.”  

Even if flexibility is not an official company policy, individual bosses can check in often and offer accommodations to help their working parents navigate demands on the home front, she said.

“Then if a child needs something — including emotional support or to be taken to a medical appointment, for instance — employees are more likely to have the time and resilience to be responsive and present for their families without feeling guilty,” Forde said. 

There are ways that working parents can help themselves, too. Sarah Peck, the founder of Startup Parent, a community for women executives, recommended that working parents try to be more transparent about their needs at work and what their kids are going through. At the very least, she said, they need to build and maintain clear boundaries for when they’re available and when they’re not. 

“Use calendar blocking and use it liberally,” she said. “And if you’re going to speak to your child’s teacher or therapist, give yourself time to regroup and recover. It’s going to be emotional.” (That’s a lesson I learned the hard way last Wednesday.)

Parents also need to cultivate their own support networks. These communities may include therapists and mental-health professionals, as well as fellow parents who understand the pressures.

Importantly, she said, working parents need to be self-compassionate.

“What our children need from us changes, and the roles we need to play for them change,” she said. “It’s not always something we can anticipate. Remember: You’re doing the best you can.”

(NewsNation) — Jurors in the murder trial of South Carolina attorney Alex Murdaugh watched video of investigators searching the hunting lodge where they believe Murdaugh killed his wife and son.

The video — dated June 8, 2021, a day after Paul and Maggie Murdaugh were killed — showed a large gun rack with several long guns stored inside, as investigators searched the home.

Outside the property, investigators are seen collecting bullet casings from the ground and placing some inside a glove to prevent them from touching each other. One officer identifies them as casings from a .22 long rifle.

Later in the video, another investigator is heard discussing an autopsy and when the bodies would be able to be returned to the family.

The video ends as the officer wearing the camera leaves to call and find out more information on the autopsy timeline.

Alex Murdaugh, 54, is standing trial on two counts of murder in the shootings of his wife and son at their Colleton County home and hunting lodge on June 7, 2021. His wife, Maggie, 52, was shot several times with a rifle; their son Paul, 22, was shot twice with a shotgun near kennels on the property.

Senior Special Agent Jeff Croft testified Monday about guns, ammunition, and fired casings gathered from the Murdaugh home after the killings, showing at least four different shotguns and rifles to the jury and testifying that the Murdaughs kept the weapons loaded in their gun room.

State Law Enforcement Division Special Agent Melinda Worley testified for hours Friday for the prosecution about evidence collected, including photographs of the bodies, shotgun pellets and DNA swabs from the scene, clothes and fingernail clippings from the autopsies and other items.

In Monday’s cross-examination, defense attorney Dick Harpootlian honed in on several items, including identifying footprints, one of Worley’s specialties. She told him one of the footprints in blood near where Murdaugh’s son was shot came from a deputy.

“Is that the preservation of the scene that your standards require?” Harpootlian asked.

“Not exactly, no,” Worley responded.

Harpootlian also had Worley come off the stand and work on a rough diagram of the angles of the shots fired at Paul and Maggie Murdaugh, pointing out a significant disparity between the directions the shots at each victim came from.

Worley said that can happen when a shooter is moving.

“One explanation would be movement. One explanation would be two shooters,” Harpootlian said.

The defense attorney also pointed out a few mistakes in Worley’s work. For instance, Worley had examined a shotgun that Alex Murdaugh said he’d grabbed to possibly defend himself after finding his wife and son. Harpootlian said the special agent incorrectly determined that the shells inside the shotgun were the same size, when, in fact, they were different sizes. The defense attorney also noted that the angle of a gunshot was given in different degrees in Worley’s scene notes and her final report.

Alex Murdaugh has pleaded not guilty to the murders and, if convicted, faces life in prison. The trial is expected to last another two weeks.

During the first day of testimony last week, jurors watched Colleton County Sgt. Daniel Greene’s body camera footage and other videos from Murdaugh’s South Carolina hunting lodge on June 7, 2021. The footage showed Greene questioning Murdaugh and protecting the crime scene.

This story is developing. Refresh for updates.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

A gauge of global stocks retreated on Monday after six sessions of gains while U.S. Treasury yields rose ahead of central bank policy announcements and data that may shed light on whether progress has been made in bringing down inflation.

Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, with announcements on Thursday from the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), both of which are largely expected to hike by 50 bps.

“The market has had a big run and the trading is a bit more cautious heading into a week which likely will be an inflection point for the overall market,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, Georgia.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks slumped, with 10 of the 11 S&P sectors closing lower, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) lost 3.70% after a U.S. court rejected the company’s plan to offload into bankruptcy tens of thousands of lawsuits over its talc products.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 260.99 points, or 0.77%, to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 52.79 points, or 1.30%, to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 227.90 points, or 1.96%, to 11,393.81.

The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That’s two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring inflation under control. But futures currently expect rates to peak at about 4.9% in June before retreating to 4.5% by year-end.

Markets will also grapple with a host of U.S. economic data, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report for January. Investors see signs of weakening in the labor market as a key factor in bringing down high inflation. Other data included gauges of the manufacturing and services sectors.

The U.S. corporate earnings season also rolls on, with earnings this week expected from Apple (AAPL.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O). Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to show a decline of 3% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, weaker than the 1.6% fall seen at the start of the year.

Stocks in Europe closed lower, with rate-sensitive names such as technology shares among the primary decliners after inflation data from Spain came in above expectations while other data showed the German economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.17% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.99%. MSCI’s index was on track for its biggest January percentage gain since 2019 while the STOXX 600 was poised for its largest January percentage gain since 2015.

U.S. Treasury yields rose ahead of the central bank meetings and economic data, with the 10-year yield up for a third consecutive session. Benchmark 10-year notes were up 2.6 basis points to 3.544%, from 3.518% late on Friday.

The greenback, which was poised for its fourth month of declines as expectation have increased the Fed was nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, was up for a third straight session against a basket of major currencies.

The dollar index rose 0.334%, with the euro down 0.17% to $1.0848.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.42% versus the greenback to 130.40 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2345, down 0.42% on the day.

Crude prices fell ahead of the expected hikes by central banks and signals of strong Russian exports.

U.S. crude settled down 2.23% at $77.90 per barrel and Brent settled at $84.90, down 2.03% on the day.

Related Galleries:

The Memphis Police Department on Monday said it had suspended a sixth officer when the investigation into beating death of Tyre Nichols opened weeks ago, a disclosure that came days after five other officers were charged with the Black man’s murder.

The suspended officer – identified as Preston Hemphill – was relieved of duty with pay pending a hearing, the Memphis Police Department said. No criminal charges have been announced against Hemphill, who has worked for the department since 2018. A spokesperson declined to comment on why his suspension was not announced earlier.

The five dismissed officers – all of them Black – have been charged with second-degree murder, assault, kidnapping, official misconduct and oppression in the death of Nichols, 29, three days after he was beaten after a traffic stop. Hemphill is white.

On Friday, the department released footage from body-worn cameras and a camera mounted on a utility pole showing officers kicking, punching and striking Nichols with a baton in his mother’s neighborhood after the traffic stop.

Theresa Carlson, a spokesperson for the department, declined to comment on Hemphill’s specific involvement in the events leading up to the fatal beating.

One of four videos included footage from Hemphill’s body camera, the New York Times reported, citing a statement from his attorney, Lee Gerald. Reuters could not immediately reach Gerald for comment.

Gerald told the Times that Hemphill was present for the traffic stop but not at the beating, which took place in a second location after Nichols ran away.

“He was never present at the second scene,” Gerald said, adding that Hemphill was cooperating with the investigation.

In one of the videos, an officer is seen using a Taser on Nichols while other officers held him down on the ground and gave conflicting commands. Hemphill has been identified as the officer who used the Taser on Nichols, according to at least two local TV stations.

Ben Crump, a civil rights attorney who represents the Nichols family, criticized the department for not firing Hemphill nor disclosing his involvement. He also criticized prosecutors for not charging Hemphill.

“The news today from Memphis officials that Officer Preston Hemphill was reportedly relieved of duty weeks ago, but not yet terminated or charged, is extremely disappointing,” Crump said on Monday in a statement. “Why is his identity and the role he played in Tyre’s death just now coming to light?”

Over the weekend, protesters gathered and called for policing reforms in Memphis and other cities, from New York City to Sacramento, California, where Nichols once lived.

The peaceful demonstrations contrasted with sometimes violent scenes that unfolded after a bystander’s video of the 2020 police murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis shocked the nation.

The Memphis branch of the NAACP on Sunday called for all officers and first responders involved in Nichols’ death to be held accountable.

Some of the officers involved in the beating were a part of SCORPION, the specialized police unit that the department disbanded on Saturday.

Last week, the Memphis Fire Department said that two employees who responded to the incident were “relieved of duty.”

Related Galleries:

Major U.S. stock indexes sank on Monday, weighed down by declines in technology and other megacap shares, as investors looked toward a major week of events including central bank meetings and a slew of earnings reports.

The heavyweight tech sector (.SPLRCT) dropped 1.9% while energy (.SPNY) shed 2.3%, the biggest drop among the S&P 500 sectors. Shares of Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Google parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O), which are due to post results later this week, all slumped.

More than 100 S&P 500 companies are expected to report results this week, which also includes central bank meetings in the United States and Europe and closely watched U.S. employment data.

“The market has had a big run and the trading is a bit more cautious heading into a week which likely will be an inflection point for the overall market,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 260.99 points, or 0.77%, to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 52.79 points, or 1.30%, to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 227.90 points, or 1.96%, to 11,393.81.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, providing another pressure point for tech shares that have otherwise rebounded to start the year after a rough 2022.

Despite Monday’s declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019.

The U.S. central bank is seen hiking the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, following a 2022 in which the Fed aggressively boosted rates to control soaring inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference will be scrutinized for whether the rate-hiking cycle may be coming to a close and for signs of how long rates could stay elevated.

“It’s probably one of the most important meetings since the whole thing began,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Unless the Fed extends that timeline meaningfully from what the market expects, which is that the Fed will be done in the next meeting or two, this may end up marking the pause, so to speak.”

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver another large rate hike on Thursday.

Investors are also focused on earnings reports, amid concerns the economy may be facing a recession. With more than 140 companies having reported so far, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 3% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior-year period, according to Refinitiv IBES.

In company news, shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) fell 3.7% after the healthcare giant’s strategy to use bankruptcy to resolve the multibillion-dollar litigation over claims its talc products cause cancer was rejected by a federal appeals court.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.40-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.08-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 67 new highs and 20 new lows.

About 10.6 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 11.2 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

For several decades, many American companies have shifted manufacturing to countries such as China and India. The idea was to integrate the global economy, allow various nations to focus on different sectors, and build global supply chains that used components from many different places. However, when the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in 2020, it wreaked havoc on this model. Shortages developed and strained companies’ ability to get the components needed for their products. At the same time, worries over national security and international competitiveness led many to rethink this approach, pushing many to support onshore manufacturing in the United States or near-shore in neighboring countries.

Decoupling continues to move forward in the tech space, particularly in computer chips manufacturing. With the American government investing billions in bringing manufacturing capabilities back to the United States, it has indicated a clear mission to compete with China. Can the United States find self-dependency and how would it affect systems already in place?

On this episode of the TechTank Podcast, co-host Darrell West is joined by two distinguished experts to discuss if economic decoupling is possible for the United States. Melanie Sisson is a fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, where she focuses on national security in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology. Emily Weinstein is a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology where she focuses on U.S.-China technological competition.  

You can listen to the episode and subscribe to the TechTank podcast on Apple, Spotify, or Acast.