Alex Brandon/AP, left. Markus Schreiber/AP, center. Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/AP, right.

• Trump’s Stormy Daniels “hush money” is the subject of a Manhattan grand jury, The NY Times reports.
• Ex-Manhattan financial crimes prosecutors say Trump risks felony-level state records-fraud charges.
• Such charges carry anywhere from no jail to 4 years in prison, but high sentences are rare, they say.

Former President Donald Trump could face charges carrying anywhere from no jail to 4 years in prison if indicted in the Stormy Daniels “hush money” matter in New York, a criminal case now being weighed by a grand jury.

That zero-to-four-years potential sentence would be for a possible top charge of first-degree falsifying business records, a low-level felony under state criminal law, according to former Manhattan prosecutors with expertise in complex financial crimes.

Proving a first-degree charge can be complicated, requiring several layers of proof, the ex-prosecutors said, commenting on the revelation by the New York Times on Monday that grand jurors are hearing evidence in the “hush money” matter.

“These are always tough cases,” said Adam Kaufmann, a former investigations chief for the district attorney’s office, now a partner specializing in white-collar criminal defense at Lewis Baach Kaufmann Middlemiss. 

“I think it’s going to be a dog’s fight from beginning to end,” Kaufmann said of the intensity with which he expects prosecutors and Trump’s defense to battle over the case.

The first requirement to proving the highest level of falsifying business records would be showing that records were indeed falsified in the business records of an enterprise.

In Trump’s case, that falsehood would sit in the records of the Trump Organization, where ”hush money” payments were recorded — allegedly falsely — as legal fees to Michael Cohen, Trump’s one-time closest attorney.

“You’re falsifying your records to show that it is a business expense, as if you’re paying a lawyer to do legal work, and this wasn’t that at all,” explained John Moscow, a former senior financial crimes prosecutor with the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

“This was a conduit payment.” 

Cohen has admitted being the bag man who delivered $130,000 in “hush money” on the brink of the 2016 election. The money was to quash claims by Daniels, an adult films actor, of having an affair with Trump. 

In 2018, the fixer-turned-critic was sentenced to three years in prison after pleading guilty to multiple crimes he’d admittedly committed while working for Trump, including the hush-money payments and lying to Congress on Trump’s behalf. 

Cohen told federal prosecutors that Trump later reimbursed him for the hush-money outlay in a series of $35,000 checks disguised as legal fees to Cohen’s law practice. Each check could be a separate “falsifying business records” charge, Moscow said.

“From what we know publicly, the ‘false entry’ would be Cohen’s legal bills” in the Trump Organization records, said Daniel R. Alonso, a former chief assistant district attorney with the Manhattan DA’s office, and now a partner at Buckley LLP.

The next level of proof for a first-degree business-falsification charge?

That would be showing an intent either to commit another crime or to aid in the concealment of another crime, said Alonso.

That other crime could be the federal campaign finance violation of not reporting what was arguably a campaign expenditure — the quashing of Daniels’ explosive story, which was set to go public days before the election, Alonso said.

Prosecutors could also argue that Trump disguised the hush money in order to commit another, separate crime, state tax fraud, by claiming the bogus Cohen legal fees as a business expense.

Whether the “hush money” reimbursement to Cohen is being claimed by Trump on his personal taxes, or by the Trump Organization as a company expenditure, “one way or another he’s intending to cheat the tax man,” Moscow said.

The next hurdle would be linking Trump to the scheme.

That link could come in two places, ex-prosecutors said. One would be from Trump personally signing some of the Cohen reimbursement checks, as alleged by Cohen.

“Trump apparently signed at least one of these checks in the Oval Office,” Alonso said, referring to a revelation in Cohen’s 2019 testimony to Congress.

The second potential link between Trump and the hush-money scheme is more tenuous — Cohen’s secret tape of Trump from September 2016.

On the tape, Trump is heard asking Cohen, “So what do we got to pay for this? One-fifty?” in reference to a pay-off to another woman who was alleging an affair with Trump, Playboy model Karen McDougal.

“It is relevant, in my view,” said Alonso. “It’s pretty incriminating. Unfortunately, it’s a snippet, so we don’t really know the full context.”

Lawyers for Trump and a spokesperson for the district attorney’s office declined to comment on possible charges or the grand jury.

Falsifying business records, even in the first degree, is a low-level, non-violent felony for which people are rarely sentenced to jail, the prosecutors noted.

Still, people do get prosecuted for these low-level felonies all the time, Alonso noted. Even Trump’s ex-CFO, Allen Weisselberg, was sentenced to five months of jail time as part of a payroll tax-fraud scheme that included his falsifying business records.

“The DA shouldn’t overlook one of these cases just because it’s Donald Trump,” Alsonso said.

“It always struck me as incredibly unfair that Michael Cohen is the only person that was charged in this crime,” he added.

“The idea that the bag man is the only one that goes down and the principal gets away scot-free just doesn’t really square with justice.”

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly due to “surprisingly resilient” demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China’s economy after Beijing abandoned its strict COVID-19 restrictions.

The IMF said global growth would still fall to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022, but its latest World Economic Outlook forecasts mark an improvement over an October prediction of 2.7% growth this year with warnings that the world could easily tip into recession.

For 2024, the IMF said global growth would accelerate slightly to 3.1%, but this is a tenth of a percentage point below the October forecast as the full impact of steeper central bank interest rate hikes slows demand.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said recession risks had subsided and central banks are making progress in controlling inflation, but more work was needed to curb prices and new disruptions could come from further escalation of the war in Ukraine and China’s battle against COVID-19.

“We have to sort of be prepared to expect the unexpected, but it could well represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and then inflation declining,” Gourinchas told reporters of the 2023 outlook.

In its 2023 GDP forecasts, the IMF said it now expected U.S. GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022. It cited stronger-than-expected consumption and investment in the third quarter of 2022, a robust labor market and strong consumer balance sheets.

It said the euro zone had made similar gains, with 2023 growth for the bloc now forecast at 0.7%, versus 0.5% in the October outlook, following 3.5% growth in 2022. The IMF said Europe had adapted to higher energy costs more quickly than expected, and an easing of energy prices had helped the region.

Britain was the only major advanced economy the IMF predicted to be in recession this year, with a 0.6% fall in GDP as households struggle with rising living costs, including for energy and mortgages.

The IMF revised China’s growth outlook sharply higher for 2023, to 5.2% from 4.4% in the October forecast after “zero-COVID” lockdown policies in 2022 slashed China’s growth rate to 3.0% – a pace below the global average for the first time in more than 40 years. But the boost from renewed mobility for Chinese people will be short-lived.

The Fund added that China’s growth will “fall to 4.5% in 2024 before settling at below 4% over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.”

At the same time, India’s outlook remains robust, with unchanged forecasts for a dip in 2023 growth to 6.1% but a rebound to 6.8% in 2024, matching its 2022 performance.

Gourinchas said together, the two Asian powerhouse economies will supply over 50% of global growth in 2023.

He acknowledged that China’s reopening would put some upward pressure on commodity prices, but “on balance, I think we view the reopening of China as a benefit to the global economy” as it will help ease production bottlenecks that have worsened inflation and by creating more demand from Chinese households.

Even with China’s reopening, the IMF is predicting that oil prices will fall in both 2023 and 2024 due to lower global growth compared to 2022.

The IMF said there were both upside and downside risks to the outlook with built-up savings creating the possibility of sustained demand growth, particularly for tourism, and an easing of labor market pressures in some advanced economies helping to cool inflation, lessening the need for aggressive rate hikes.

But it enumerated more and larger downside risks, including more widespread COVID-19 outbreaks in China and a worsening of the country’s real estate turmoil.

An escalation of the war in Ukraine could further spike energy and food prices, as would a cold winter next year as Europe struggles to refill gas storage and competes with China for liquefied natural gas supplies, the Fund said.

Although headline inflation has come down in many countries, a premature easing of financial conditions leaves markets vulnerable to sudden repricings if core inflation readings fail to come down.

Gourinchas said core inflation may have peaked in some countries such as the United States, but central banks need to stay vigilant and be more certain that inflation is on a downward path, particularly in countries where real interest rates remain low, such as in Europe.

“So we’re just saying, look, bring monetary policy slightly above neutral at the very least and hold it there. And then assess what’s going on with price dynamics and how the economy is responding, and there will be plenty of time to adjust course, so that we avoid having overtightening,” Gourinchas said.

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Asian shares traded cautiously and bonds nursed small losses on Tuesday as investors braced for an eventful week that includes central bank meetings, a slew of earnings reports and key U.S. economic data.

Investors broadly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. Rate announcements are due on Thursday from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. read more

Meanwhile, more than 100 S&P 500 companies including Apple (AAPL.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) are expected to report results this week, which also will see the publication of closely watched U.S. employment numbers.

“It’s a big week for both central banks and U.S. equities, with … some of the household names due to make earnings announcements that will provide a micro overview of the macro economy,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

“We expect a 25 bps (U.S.) rate rise and anticipate that the Fed will caution against an early pause in the tightening cycle … Risk appetite could be vulnerable to a correction.”

Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.1%. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , rose 0.1%.

Japan’s Nikkei stock index (.N225) slid 0.1% while Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 0.2%.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 index (.CSI300) remained flat in early trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (.HSI) opened up 0.4%.

On Monday, U.S. stocks lost ground with the major indexes sinking, weighed down by declines in technology and other giant corporations’ shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.8% to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 1.3% to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 2.0% to 11,393.81.

Despite Monday’s declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019.

At the end of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday investors will be glued to Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference for clues on whether the rate-hiking cycle may be coming to a close, and for signs of how long rates could stay elevated.

Markets will also grapple with a flood of U.S. economic data, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report for January. Investors see signs of weakening in the labour market as a key factor in bringing down high inflation.

U.S. Treasury yields remained firm ahead of the central bank meetings and economic data, with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR standing at 3.5384% compared with its U.S. close of 3.551% on Monday.

The two-year yield , which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.2402% compared with a U.S. close of 4.261%.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar, which was poised for its fourth month of declines, was down at 102.19 against a basket of other major currencies.

The European single currency was up 0.1% on the day at $1.0852, having gained 1.4% in a month.

In the energy market, oil prices fell on Monday ahead of the expected hikes by central banks and signals of strong Russian exports.

U.S. crude ticked up 0.2% to $78.02 a barrel while Brent crude settled at $84.9 per barrel early in the Asia session.

Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold was traded at $1922.91 per ounce.

Three members of the Memphis Fire Department who responded to the fatal police confrontation with Tyre Nichols were dismissed on Monday after investigators found the victim was left handcuffed and beaten on the ground without medical attention for nearly 15 minutes.

According to a fire department statement, emergency medical technicians Robert Long and JaMichael Sandridge failed to assess Nichols’ condition when they arrived, while fire Lieutenant Michelle Whitaker, who drove them to the scene, remained in her vehicle.

An internal review of their conduct found that all three fire department employees “violated numerous (fire department) policies and protocols,” the agency said in a statement issued by Fire Chief Gina Sweat.

The terminations came as the Memphis Police Department disclosed a total of seven of its officers were relieved of duty for their roles in the confrontation that led to the Jan. 10 death of Nichols, a 29-year-old Black man. That tally included five officers who previously were dismissed from the force and were charged last week with murder.

Lawyers for Nichols’ family have cast the fatal beating as the latest instance of racially biased police using unjustified lethal force against an African American. The five officers charged in this case were themselves Black.

A sixth officer – identified as Preston Hemphill – was suspended with pay pending a hearing, and a seventh officer who was not immediately identified was also relieved of duty without pay, the police department said. No criminal charges have been filed against Hemphill, 26, who joined the force in 2018, or against the seventh, unnamed officer.

A police department spokesperson declined to comment on why those suspensions were not announced earlier.

Police Chief Cerelyn Davis has previously said an unspecified number of officers besides the five initially implicated remained under investigation for policy infractions stemming from the arrest of Nichols during a Jan. 7 traffic stop.

The five officers dismissed on Jan. 20 – Justin Smith, Desmond Mills Jr., Emmitt Martin III, Demetrius Haley and Tadarrius Bean – were charged Thursday with second-degree murder, assault, kidnapping, official misconduct and oppression in the fatal beating of Nichols.

Hemphill, who is white, wore the body-camera that captured the first of four videos released by authorities on Friday of the traffic stop and violent confrontation that followed, according to the officer’s attorney, Lee Gerald.

In the video, it is Hemphill who appears to fire a stun gun at Nichols after Nichols is dragged from his car, forced to the ground and doused with pepper spray before he breaks free and runs away with arresting officers in pursuit on foot.

Police caught up to Nichols a short distance away, where additional video clips show him officers repeatedly pummeling him with punches, kicks and baton blows before Nichols is finally handcuffed and propped up against the side of a police vehicle. He died three days later while hospitalized from his injuries.

According to a fire department time line of its response to an incident originally dispatched as “a person pepper sprayed,” Long and Sandridge “failed to conduct an adequate patient assessment” when they reached Nichols at 8:41 p.m., minutes after the beating had ended.

Instead, after an initial “interaction” with Nichols, the two EMTs called for an ambulance team, who arrived on the scene at 8:55 p.m. and finally “initiated patient care,” the fire department said in its statement. Nichols was transported to a hospital a short time later.

The “actions or inactions” of Long, Sandridge and Whitaker “on the scene that night to not meet the expectations of the Memphis Fire Department,” Chief Sweat said.

In addition to the seven police officers and three fire department personnel implicated in the Nichols encounter, two Shelby County Sheriff’s deputies have also been relieved of duty pending an internal review, Sheriff Floyd Bonner said last Friday, after the video was released.

The Shelby County district attorney’s investigation is examining the roles played by all individuals involved in the Nichols traffic stop and its immediate aftermath, including Hemphill Memphis Fire Department personnel and “those responsible for documenting the incident,” the office said in a statement.

The specialized Scorpion police unit that included the five Memphis officers charged with murder in the case was disbanded on Saturday by the city. It was not immediately clear whether the sixth and seventh officers under investigation belonged to that unit.

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אויף דער צווייטאָגיקער ייִדיש־קאָנפֿערענץ אין ניו־יאָרק דעם פֿאַרגאַנגענעם נאָוועמבער האָט מען בײַם סוף פֿונעם ערשטן טאָג געהאַלטן די צוויי הויפּטרעדעס פֿון דער אונטערנעמונג.

די קאָנפֿערענץ, „אין די הייכן: אַ בליק אַרײַן אין דער ייִדיש־אַקאַדעמיע און ־אַקטיוויזם אינעם נאָכמלחמהדיקן ניו־יאָרק“, איז דורכגעפֿירט געוואָרן צום 15טן יאָרצײַט פֿונעם ייִדיש־פֿאָרשער און ־לערער ד״ר מרדכי שעכטער אויף די קאַמפּוסן פֿון קאָלאָמביע־אוניווערסיטעט און דעם ייִדישן טעאָלאָגישן סעמינאַר דעם 20סטן־21סטן נאָוועמבער 2022.

דער ערשטער רעפֿעראַט, פֿון דער פּענסיאָנירטער פּראָפֿעסאָרין פֿון ייִדישער ליטעראַטור חנה נאָריך,  האָט געהייסן „ייִדיש איז אַן עיקר“ און איז געווען אויף ענגליש. דער צווייטער, פֿון דוד־הירש ראָסקעס, האָט געהייסן „שפּראַך־גלות און שפּראַך־באַנײַונג אין דער גרויסער שטאָט ניו־יאָרק: לזכּרון ר׳ מרדכי שעכטער“ און איז געווען אויף ייִדיש. גיטל שעכטער־ווישוואַנאַט האָט געפֿירט דעם פֿאָרזיץ.

אונטן איז אַ ווידעאָ־רעקאָרדירונג פֿון דער גאַנצער סעסיע.

The post VIDEO: Linguistic exile and language renewal in New York City appeared first on The Forward.

I’m old enough to remember my parents watching Perry Mason after my bedtime, composer Fred Steiner’s hypnotic theme music lulling me to sleep. My husband and I still binge watch the series, the stylish black and white cinematography, sets, and wardrobe are timeless. The genius legal sleuth, with the help of his elegant detective Paul Drake, and smart sultry secretary Della Street always wins against the ever-exasperated Los Angeles District Attorney, Hamilton Burger, (the name evoking Ham-Burger always makes me giggle). Whether during preliminary hearings when the prosecutor and Mason are making a case for the judge to decide to go to trial, or during trial, it’s that “Perry Mason moment,” when Mason traps the perpetrator in a lie, that cements the series as an enduring classic.

The term “Perry Mason moment” trended last August after attorney Mark Bankston caught Sandy Hook mass shooting denier Alex Jones committing perjury during the damages trial. When pathological liar Trump and other mythomaniac Republicans like George Santos eventually go to trial, or perhaps during plea negotiations, those gotcha moments will abound.

There’s no doubt, unlike Hamilton Burger, each prosecutor’s case will be airtight. That’s why the recent Seditious Conspiracy convictions and the arrest of former FBI counterintelligence chief Charles McGonigal are making Trump more unhinged. Or why, after the DOJ asked the Federal Election Commission to stop investigating Santos indicating likely criminal charges, is making him flee reporters’ questions. They both know the big gotcha moment is imminent.

One of my favorite recent “Perry Mason moments” was during Trump’s deposition in E. Jean Carroll’s libel suit when he mistook a photo of his rape accuser for his ex-wife Marla Maples, putting to rest his lie, “she’s not my type.” Gotcha!

But this is not about schadenfreude. For those of us waiting for these monsters to be held accountable, it’s about finally putting an end to the gaslighting that is driving us crazy. It’s about that moment when the irrefutable truth finally comes out.

The post The Perry Mason moment appeared first on Palmer Report.