World stocks eased on Wednesday and bonds remained supported after a chorus of Wall Street bankers warned about a likely recession ahead, tempering optimism about China’s major shift in its tough zero-COVID policy.

Top executives at Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America all sounded downbeat in remarks on Tuesday about the economic outlook, hurting risk appetite globally and triggering fresh recession signal from bond markets.

“Yields have accentuated the downward trend, which is somewhat of a novelty. In previous phases of risk aversion bonds tended to fall along with stocks, precisely because the risk-off mood was driven by fears over inflation and monetary policy,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia in Milan.

“Now, concerns over economic growth seem to be overtaking those over inflation,” he added.

The darkening economic outlook drove fresh safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and longer-dated bonds extended their gains, while oil eased after a sharp fall on Tuesday.

“Economic growth is slowing,” said Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. “When I talk to our clients, they sound extremely cautious.”

A weak start across European equity markets set the pan-regional STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index for its fourth straight session of losses, down 0.1% by 0903 GMT. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 1.5%.

That sent the MSCI’s benchmark for global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) down 0.3%. S&P 500 futures were 0.07% higher by early morning in Europe after losses on Tuesday.

China’s national health authority said on Wednesday that asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and those with mild symptoms can self-treat while in quarantine at home.

While some of the changes announced echoed similar easing moves made by other countries many months ago, the announcement was the strongest sign so far that China is preparing its people to live with the disease after nearly three years of crippling restrictions that have battered the economy.

Market reaction, however, was negative as the focus shifts to how well China can execute its policy shift, especially if new cases surge over winter. Analysts say the path to fully reopening the economy will be long and not without risk.

The Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) fell 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI) slumped 3.2% and the yuan was down 0.2% at 6.9808, giving up early gains.

“The reality on the ground is still one of continued pressure, even as the outlook is improving somewhat,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets’ strategy at TD Securities in Singapore.

Adding to the darkening demand outlook globally, China earlier in the day reported grim trade data for November, with both imports and exports suffering their biggest monthly falls since 2020 – auguring badly for recovery prospects. read more

India on Wednesday was the latest central bank to start slowing the pace of rate increases, with a hike of its key lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%, smaller than the three 50 bp hikes it delivered previously. Canada is the next cab off the rank with a rates decision expected at 1500 GMT.

The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries steadied at 3.5167% after falling 8.6 basis points on Tuesday. That is more than 80 bps below the two-year yield , a near record-wide gap which signals economic recession.

In commodities, Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $78.86 a barrel, after they fell below $80 for the second time in 2022 during the previous trading session.

In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar was seeking to steady after excitement about a slowdown in U.S. rate hikes recently knocked it from the year’s highs.

The euro was last steady at $1.0476 in Europe on Wednesday and sterling was last little changed against the dollar at $1.215, after falling 0.4% overnight. The Australian dollar was broadly steady at $0.669 despite Australian third-quarter growth coming in a bit below forecasts.

The Canadian dollar was at 1.3675 per dollar ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada later on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 105.6, further above the June 2022 low of 104.1 hit on Monday.

Spot gold was steady at $1,772 an ounce and bitcoin fell 1.6% to below the $17,000 mark with cryptocurrency sentiment fragile as the fallout from the collapse of FTX ripples through the sector.

 Michael Novakhov @mikenov

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The post Wife, Mother, Councilor, Patriot: How Zhenya Kuleba Parlays Her Access – Kyiv Post appeared first on Ukraine Intelligence.

Everybody knows the name of Dmytro Kuleba, the young and flamboyant Foreign Minister of Ukraine. In an exclusive interview, Kyiv Post talks to his wife, Zhenya.

Between her work as a Kyiv councilor and with a humanitarian foundation called Garden City, Zhenya Kuleba has been ranked by Focus magazine as the 44th most prominent woman in Ukraine. Like everyone in Ukraine, the full-scale war by Russia has had a huge impact on her family.

“We will celebrate Christmas and New Year at home this year,” says Zhenya Kuleba defiantly. “For us Christmas and New Year is a symbol that they cannot break us. Even if they are bombing, killing us, we still have a place for celebration, a place for family and a place for a peaceful life.”

Her kids, Yehor, 16, and Luba, 11, have no doubts about celebrating Christmas. Yevheniia, who prefers me to call her by her shortened name Zhenya, confesses that this year’s festive celebrations will not be like last year’s.

The Kyiv councilor for Shevchenkivsky District, who represents the Servant of the People party, believes there will not be huge celebrations at Sophia’s Square with a big Christmas tree and people drinking mulled wine as in past years.

But Putin’s Russia will not be spoiling her party. Zhenya will be celebrating Christmas on Dec. 25 (according to the Gregorian calendar), and not on Jan. 7 (the Julian calendar), like most Ukrainians normally do. She outlines her reasoning. “We have to be connected to Europe, so even in this field of strong tradition, we are trying to be closer to Europe and to switch our celebrations to December.

With snow and ice already appearing on the streets of Kyiv, the 41-year-old councilor is making sure residents will be able to deal with the harsh winter conditions and anything else Putin throws at them, by establishing emergency shelters called “points of invincibility.” These are places where Kyivites can stay warm up, enjoy a hot drink, and recharge their mobile phones and laptops.

Zhenya says President Zelensky was justified in his recent spat with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. “He started to prepare these emergency centers, but he was doing it so slowly, that when the missile attacks on Nov. 23 happened, we were not prepared.”

She adds: “During that weekend members of the city council tried to visit the 400 centers and found many of them closed because they didn’t have generators. The funny thing is the war has been going on for nine months and we were not prepared. We should have predicted Russia would leave us without light and water.”

Family life and relationships can sometimes be difficult in normal conditions, but in wartime they can be amplified. On February 24, the day of the full-scale invasion, Zhenya was on vacation with her daughter Luba in Egypt, while her son Yehor was in Kyiv.

Being looked after by grandparents, she knew he was safe, but she got him out of the country and they were back in Kyiv by the beginning of May. As a councilor, Zhenya knew she was needed in Kyiv. But what made her feel proud was that her kids had decided to return and support her rather than stay on in Europe.

“The kids wanted to be with me and felt more connected to Ukraine than ever before. They felt more patriotic than prior the war,” she says.

Zhenya feels sorry for those whose education has been disrupted by the war. “They can’t attend school normally,” she says. “As soon as they get there the sirens go off. They go to the shelter and can’t have proper classes. For most kids they don’t go to school for knowledge, but to see friends and have conversations and try to get a normal life.”

Giving them a “normal life” is not easy and can be quite challenging.

“For the first time during the war my daughter asked me if she could invite her friends to stay overnight. It was scary because not only was I responsible for my own kids but other peoples’. I allowed it to happen and for them it was something really important because it felt like a part of peaceful life had returned.”

As well as looking after her family and Kyivites in her day job, Zhenya is also reaching out with humanitarian help to parts of eastern Ukraine with her NGO Garden City. “We used to do work in Luhansk and Donetsk oblast alone. I know people in these regions and we help them a lot.

“Now I am organizing a series of evacuation trips for the people from Slovyansk and other cities in the Donetsk region. We have partners in France, and they provide them with half a year place to stay, food and even a small amount of money to live on.”

Despite her straight-talking, another side of Zhenya is revealed when I ask her how she copes in this war situation. Is it something you can get used to? She tells me about a two-day-old baby killed by a Russian missile strike on a hospital’s maternity ward.

“When I heard about this I was crying half the day,” she says. “My friends are dying, people I know are dying. Every time it is a tragedy. Most Ukrainians believe in God and it is easier to go through the war believing in God.”

Although Zhenya is a native of Kyiv, she reveals that her parents are Russian speakers, because they are from the Russified generation. Nevertheless, she always speaks Ukrainian with her family – husband Dmytro and kids. “It was our personal decision. Kyiv has switched to Ukrainian, as well as parts of eastern Ukraine.”

She tells me that some people believe that no matter what language you speak, you can still be patriotic and defend your country. She reminds me there are people who are fighting in this war on our side who speak Russian.

Zhenya says she had friends in Russia before, but those contacts were severed in 2014, not Feb. 24, 2022. “For us we already knew that our neighbor was our enemy.”

“At the beginning of the war, even the President tried to address Russians. A lot of Ukrainians were writing to different Russian groups, trying to explain what was happening in Ukraine,” she says. “But then they stopped because we understood as a nation that we were wasting our time.”

I ask her how long this war will last. “People in Ukraine are ready to suffer as much as they need to liberate our territory and to stop this genocide. It is not something new for Ukraine.

“We always remember the Holodomor [the artificial famine of 1932-33] when they wanted to destroy our people, our nation, our country. For us it is not a new experience. Russia only brings us suffering and death – nothing good.”

Zhenya holds the opinion that Kyiv is now more dangerous due to more missile strikes than during the beginning of the war. “Although we had Russians very close, Bucha, Irpin and Borodyanka, we had electricity, water and everything,” she says. “They didn’t bomb Kyiv heavily. Now Kyiv is full of people, we have a lot of traffic jams, most people have come back home, and Kyiv looks like the city before the war.”

If there is any light relief in this interview it is that Zhenya introduces me to the family’s two dogs. Gustav is a five-year-old Jack Russell Terrier and Benjamin, a one-year-old Toy Poodle.

I ask if either of her pets have met Patron, the famous dog that sniffs out deadly mines. The expected answer is no, with a giggle, but before the war Zhenya acknowledges that people used to say Gustav was like the dog from the film Milo From The Mask, but now everyone thinks of him as Patron.

Zhenya doesn’t have contact with the President, but has access to members of the Ukrainian Parliament as a Member of the Servant of the People, and those from other parties as they have a shared common goal. But then there’s one person who can find time to see her and the children – her dashing husband, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

The post Wife, Mother, Councilor, Patriot: How Zhenya Kuleba Parlays Her Access appeared first on Kyiv Post.

 Michael Novakhov @mikenov

A suspected Islamist militant, angered by Indonesia’s new criminal code, killed one other person and wounded at least 10 in a suicide bomb attack at a police station in the city of Bandung on Wednesday, authorities said.

The suicide bomber was believed to be affiliated with the Islamic State-inspired group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) and had previously been jailed on terrorism charges, Indonesian police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo told a news conference.

The police chief said the attacker, identified as Agus Sujatno, was released in late 2021 and investigators had found dozens of documents protesting the country’s controversial new criminal code at the crime scene.

“We found dozens of papers protesting the newly ratified criminal code,” he said.

Though there are sharia-based provisions in the new criminal code ratified by parliament on Tuesday, Islamist hardliners could have been angered by other articles that could be used to crackdown on the propagation of extremist ideologies, analysts say.

West Java police chief Suntana earlier told Metro TV that authorities had found a blue motorbike at the scene, which they believed was used by the attacker.

Attached to the bike was a note carrying a message decrying the new criminal code as “an infidel product,” Suntana said.

Todd Elliott, a senior security analyst at Concord Consulting in Jakarta, said it was likely the attack had been planned for some time and was an ideological rejection of the country’s new laws.

“While all the attention is on some of these sharia-based provisions in the criminal code and how that is an indication of the spread of conservative Islam in Indonesia, there are also changes in the criminal code that hardliners would not support,” he said.

“Including outlawing any ideology that goes against the state ideology, Pancasila, and that would also include extremist ideology.”

Video footage from the scene of Wednesday’s attack showed smoke rising from the damaged police station, with debris n the ground.

“Suddenly I heard the sound of an explosion… I saw a few police officers come out from the station and they couldn’t walk properly,” Hanes, a 21-year-old street vendor who witnessed the explosion told Reuters.

Islamist militants have in recent years carried out attacks in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, including at churches, police stations and venues frequented by foreigners.

Members of JAD were responsible for a series of suicide church bombings in the city of Surabaya in 2018. Those attacks were perpetrated by three families, who also attached suicide vests to their young children, and killed at least 30 people.

In 2021, a pair of JAD newlyweds carried out a suicide bomb attack at a cathedral in Makassar, killing only themselves.

In an effort to crack down on militants, Indonesia created a tough new anti-terrorism law after suicide bombings linked to JAD.

The group, which is now largely splintered, has been significantly weakened by a wave of arrests by the counterterrorism agency in recent years, analysts say.

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Denys Shmyhal attends a joint briefing in Kyiv on December 6. (Hennadii Minchenko/Ukrinform/Future Publishing/Getty Images)

Ukraine claimed it has lowered its “energy deficit” as engineers get the job done to restore infrastructure broken by waves of Russian missile strikes.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that right after Monday’s assaults, “electrical power engineers guarantee to eradicate the consequences” in the coming times.

“At the very same time, the ability deficit in the vitality system will continue to be. Presently, it is 19% of the forecast consumption,” he reported. It has been greater than 30% in modern weeks.

Even so, Shmyhal claimed, “35% of essential facilities of the primary power grids have been damaged by significant assaults by the Russians in recent months.”

“The enemy fired 7 missiles at after at 1 of the substations in the Odesa region. As a result, electricity outages schedules are continue to in effect in the country,” he added.

Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov explained that drinking water offer and sewage remedy had been restored by Tuesday night.

Eleven district and quarter boiler houses — utilized for heating — were being running, serving about 88% of consumers. “This implies that a lot more than 600,000 Odesa inhabitants have heat,” Trukhanov explained.

Much more strikes in the south: Russian missile and artillery attacks have continued in other places in southern Ukraine.

Yaroslav Yanushevych, the head of the Kherson regional army administration, stated Tuesday that “Russian occupiers shelled Kherson city all over again, hitting an “infrastructure facility and household structures.”

One human being had been killed and a huge fire was extinguished, he stated.

More north, Russians attacked the town of Kryvyi Rih.

Valentyn Reznichenko, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military services administration, explained an industrial company had been hit.

Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the Kryvyi Rih district, reported the strike appeared to have been by a ballistic missile, calling them “extremely substantial destructions.”

Vilkul claimed that immediately after Monday’s missile attacks, the gradual restoration of electrical energy had begun. But hourly and scheduled outages would proceed “to preserve the power method of Ukraine intact.”

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The post Live updates: Russia’s war in Ukraine appeared first on Ukraine Intelligence.

Come January, Mitch McConnell and his Republican colleagues will face a 51-49 Senate Democratic majority – making Biden’s job a little easier

Tuesday delivered a spate of bad news for Donald Trump and the Republican party. First, Bennie Thompson, chairman of the January 6 committee, announced that criminal referrals to the US Department of Justice would be forthcoming. A few hours later, a Manhattan jury convicted the Trump Organization on 17 counts of tax fraud, conspiracy and falsification. According to prosecutors, the former president was complicit.

And now, the incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock has prevailed in a hard-fought runoff. Georgia again rejected Herschel Walker and Donald Trump, his patron.

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Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu was still one partner short of a coalition to secure a parliamentary majority on Wednesday after an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party signed up, with the deadline for forming a government looming.

The deal with United Torah Judaism (UTJ), announced late on Tuesday, promised Netanyahu control of 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats with his conservative Likud party. That left Shas, an ultra-Orthodox party with 11 seats, as Likud’s last likely ally.

After coming ahead in a Nov. 1 election, Netanyahu was given 28 days to present a coalition. Commentators predicted he would do so in short order, given the strong showing of religious-nationalist parties. But negotiations have proven protracted.

The inclusion of far-rightists in the incoming government has stirred fear at home and abroad for the future of Israel’s long-moribund talks with the Palestinians and fraught ties between its majority Jews and 21% Arabs citizens.

Netanyahu has said he will serve all Israelis but has not indicated any plan for reviving talks with Palestinians.

UTJ said in a statement on the Likud deal, which it agreed even though some details were pending, that talks needed to be extended beyond Sunday’s deadline for a coalition agreement.

President Isaac Herzog can extend the mandate by 14 days.

Among issues dogging the coalition talks is a tax-fraud conviction of Shas leader Arieh Deri, a candidate for finance minister. Shas has submitted legislation that would enable Deri – who was spared jail under a plea deal – to serve in cabinet.

Netanyahu has yet to request an extension for coalition talks. But the centrist opposition has accused him of planning to use any extra time he might get to push the Deri-linked bill through parliament before his government is in office.

Outgoing Justice Minister Gideon Saar said on Twitter that any request for extra time would be a “ruse (to enable) the passing of personalised and problematic laws, in accordance with the demands of (coalition) partners, before the government is set up.”

United Arab List (UAL), a party that draws support from Israel’s Arab citizens and which was part of the outgoing coalition, signalled it might be willing to join Netanyahu.

“I’m not ruling this out,” UAL leader Mansour Abbas told 103 FM radio, saying he awaited word on the new government’s policies.