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Флиртующий робот, талибы и самая длинная речь Путина: в Петербурге завершился ПМЭФ-2022

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ДАННОЕ СООБЩЕНИЕ (МАТЕРИАЛ) СОЗДАНО И (ИЛИ) РАСПРОСТРАНЕНО ИНОСТРАННЫМ СРЕДСТВОМ МАССОВОЙ ИНФОРМАЦИИ, ВЫПОЛНЯЮЩИМ ФУНКЦИИ ИНОСТРАННОГО АГЕНТА, И (ИЛИ) РОССИЙСКИМ ЮРИДИЧЕСКИМ ЛИЦОМ, ВЫПОЛНЯЮЩИМ ФУНКЦИИ ИНОСТРАННОГО АГЕНТА.

В Петербурге завершился юбилейный 25-й Петербургский международный экономический форум. Как сообщил «КП» советник президента России Антон Кобяков, в мероприятии приняли участие 14 тыс. человек из 131 страны, включая все «недружественные».

За четыре дня на форуме было проведено 214 мероприятий и заключено 691 соглашение на общую сумму более 5,6 триллионов рублей. Петербург, по словам Кобякова, заключил сделок на полтриллиона рублей.

Опоздавший лидер РФ Владимир Путин в ходе своей самой длинной за 10 лет речи рассказал посетителям ПМЭФ, как образовалась Украина и выразил уверенность в восстановлении хороших отношений с соседней страной, процитировал Марка Твена, упомянул пеньку и седла и анонсировал промышленную ипотеку под 5% годовых. Кроме того, президент пообещал не «душить» бизнес проверками и пересмотреть наказания за ряд экономических преступлений.

Гостей ПМЭФ развлекали робопес в белой рубашке, робот Дуняша, продающая мороженое и кокетничающая с покупателями, а также совенок Бейзи, который позировал на фото со всеми желающими.

Кроме того, в форуме приняла участие делегация талибов (движение «Талибан» — террористическая организация, запрещенная в России), всколыхнув своим появлением соцсети, президент Казахстана Касым-Жомарт Токаев, который заявил о сомнительных перспективах приема Украины в Евросоюз, а глава «НОВАТЭКа» рассказал о том, что Россия пойдет туда, куда ее «посылают».

Глава Сбербанка Герман Греф на форуме высказал мнение, что «экспорт сегодня становится ядом для экономики», а импорт — главным лекарством от «болезни», министр экономики Максим Решетников сообщил, что в России уже пятую неделю идет дефляция, глава Банка России Эльвира Набиуллина заявила, что регулятор не планирует запрещать хождение в РФ доллара, евро и иной иностранной валюты, глава «Роснефти» Игорь Сечин отметил, что дефицит нефти в мире может сохраниться надолго, а глава ВТБ Андрей Костин призвал к дедолларизации российской экономики.

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150 million ‘cat-sized’ rats are running loose in the UK

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The UK has 150 million rats running lose. And they’re all desperate to get into your home – that’s according to a pest control expert. Ian Helands says that he’s seen some ‘the size of cats’. But no matter how big, if they decide they want to get inside your home, they will.

Experts like Ian are warning people to rat-proof their houses before the unpopular house guests invade. The explosion in UK rat numbers is causing chaos, with the highest ever number thought to be roaming the country, reports the Daily Star.

Ian warned: “I have had more call-outs than ever from homeowners who have heard a noise, looked down into their toilet only to find a giant rat. No-one is safe. Rats are excellent swimmers with bendy bones and can squeeze into the smallest of spaces. They can hold their breath for three minutes and tread water for three days, and they are coming up waste pipes.

“They’re cunning and getting bolder and bolder. Basically, if they want to get into your home, they will. This has increased by 25% each year over the Covid pandemic. People are scared and they should be. There are more rats than ever and they are taking over. I have seen some the size of cats.”

He said that the increase in numbers of people working from home means rats don’t have as much food to eat in city centres – so they are coming into homes instead. Two weeks ago, the Daily Star reported how bin men were being attacked by rats.

Ian, who runs Sussex pest control business Pests Be Gone, continued: “There are ways of pest-proofing your home. You can get rat gates for water pipes – these used to be used in very rural areas, such as near canals, but now we are recommending them even in built-up housing areas.”

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ISW: командующего ВДВ РФ отправили в отставку за потери в Украине

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Командующего Воздушно-десантными войсками России генерал-полковника Андрея Сердюкова отправили в отставку из-за массовых потерь среди…

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Президент Казахстана Токаев отказался принимать от России орден Александра Невского

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Президент Казахстана Касым-Жомарт Токаев отказался принимать от российской стороны орден Александра Невского во время нахождения на Петербургском международном экономическом форуме (ПМЭФ). Об этом в своем телеграм-канале со ссылкой на источники сообщил казахский политолог Ербол Едилов. Пресс-секретарь Токаева Руслан Желдибай в ответ на запрос агентства Tengrinews подтвердил эту информацию. В Кремле же заявили, что награждения не планировалось.

Как пишет Едилов, Токаев «поблагодарил за оказанную честь», но казахский президент решил не принимать никаких наград, — как отечественных, так и зарубежных, — до того, как он перестанет быть президентом. По этой же причине, по словам Едилова, Токаев ранее не стал принимать высший высшую государственную награду Киргизии орден «Манас» первой степени.

Пресс-служба Токаева в беседе с Tengrinews сказала, что Касым-Жомарт Токаев действительно принял решение не принимать государственные награды до завершения его президентских полномочий.

Пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков, в свою очередь, сказал телеграм-каналу «Подъем», что Токаева и не планировали награждать орденом Александра Невского.

«Я не знаю, откуда эта информация, потому что никакого награждения и не планировалось. В планах такого не было», — сказал представитель Кремля.

Орденом Александра Невского могут награждать зарубежных политических деятелей «за заслуги в развитии многостороннего сотрудничества с Россией», а также «оказании содействия в ее социально-экономическом развитии».

Выступление Токаева на ПМЭФ

17 июня Токаев во время выступления на ПМЭФ сказал, что Казахстан не признает государственный суверенитет Донецкой и Луганской Народных Республик (ДНР и ЛНР), которые ранее были признаны Россией.

Президент Казахстана отметил, «что если право наций на самоопределение в реальности будет реализовано на всем земном шаре, то вместо 193 государств, которые сейчас входят в ООН, на Земле возникнет более 500-600 государств». «Конечно же, это будет хаос», — заключил он.

В частности, Казахстан не признает суверенитет Тайваня, Косово, Южной Осетии и Абхазии.

«И, по всей видимости, этот принцип [непризнания] будет применен в отношении квазигосударственных территорий, коими, на наш взгляд, являются Луганск и Донецк», — отметил Токаев.

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Opinion | President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine

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Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

By Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Mr. Biden is president of the United States.

The invasion Vladimir Putin thought would last days is now in its fourth month. The Ukrainian people surprised Russia and inspired the world with their sacrifice, grit and battlefield success. The free world and many other nations, led by the United States, rallied to Ukraine’s side with unprecedented military, humanitarian and financial support.

As the war goes on, I want to be clear about the aims of the United States in these efforts.

America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.

As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said, ultimately this war “will only definitively end through diplomacy.” Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.

That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.

We will continue cooperating with our allies and partners on Russian sanctions, the toughest ever imposed on a major economy. We will continue providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, powerful artillery and precision rocket systems, radars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Mi-17 helicopters and ammunition. We will also send billions more in financial assistance, as authorized by Congress. We will work with our allies and partners to address the global food crisis that Russia’s aggression is worsening. And we will help our European allies and others reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels, and speed our transition to a clean energy future.

We will also continue reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with forces and capabilities from the United States and other allies. And just recently, I welcomed Finland’s and Sweden’s applications to join NATO, a move that will strengthen overall U.S. and trans-Atlantic security by adding two democratic and highly capable military partners.

We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow. So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.

My principle throughout this crisis has been “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” I will not pressure the Ukrainian government — in private or public — to make any territorial concessions. It would be wrong and contrary to well-settled principles to do so.

Ukraine’s talks with Russia are not stalled because Ukraine has turned its back on diplomacy. They are stalled because Russia continues to wage a war to take control of as much of Ukraine as it can. The United States will continue to work to strengthen Ukraine and support its efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the conflict.

Unprovoked aggression, the bombing of maternity hospitals and centers of culture, and the forced displacement of millions of people make the war in Ukraine a profound moral issue. I met with Ukrainian refugees in Poland — women and children who were unsure what their lives would be, and whether the loved ones who stayed behind in Ukraine would be OK. No person of conscience could be unmoved by the devastation of these horrors.

Standing by Ukraine in its hour of need is not just the right thing to do. It is in our vital national interests to ensure a peaceful and stable Europe and to make it clear that might does not make right. If Russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions, it will send a message to other would-be aggressors that they too can seize territory and subjugate other countries. It will put the survival of other peaceful democracies at risk. And it could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over.

I know many people around the world are concerned about the use of nuclear weapons. We currently see no indication that Russia has intent to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, though Russia’s occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible. Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale would be completely unacceptable to us as well as the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.

Americans will stay the course with the Ukrainian people because we understand that freedom is not free. That’s what we have always done whenever the enemies of freedom seek to bully and oppress innocent people, and it is what we are doing now. Vladimir Putin did not expect this degree of unity or the strength of our response. He was mistaken. If he expects that we will waver or fracture in the months to come, he is equally mistaken.

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Putin Gets Unexpected Pushback From Ally Over War in Ukraine

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Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to justify his war in Ukraine as legal under international law at his flagship economic forum on Friday. Sitting beside him on the stage, a key ally diplomatically disagreed.

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Ukraine LIVE: Putin left red-faced on his own stage after key ally rejects his war claims

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29 mins ago11:49 Michael Curzon

Boris Johnson has insisted the UK must continue to show its support for Ukraine.

He said today: “The Russians are grinding forward inch by inch and it is vital for us to show what we know to be true which is that Ukraine can win and will win.

“When Ukraine fatigue is setting in, it is very important to show that we are with them for the long haul and we are giving them the strategic resilience that they need.”

1 hour ago11:04 Michael Curzon

A “large column of smoke” can be seen over a Topaz plant in Russian-occupied Donetsk, according to Belarusian media outlet Nexta.

2 hours ago10:11 Michael Curzon

Britons on the streets of Nottingham earlier this month told Express.co.uk the West should be encouraging more peace talks between Ukraine and Russia to bring the conflict to an end.

Some argued that the UK should be wary about getting too involved in the war and should, for example, cease sending arms.

Pensioner Barbara Finch said the delivery of weapons supported the notion that the “human race does not learn its lessons”.

Septuagenarian Stewart Crisp added that he fears Ukraine will become a land of “ongoing warfare”, like Syria, where the UK has also been criticised for the shape of its involvement.

Read more here.

2 hours ago10:02 Michael Curzon

As well as appearing to be snubbed by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in yesterday gathering of the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (see below), Vladimir Putin is said to have received a “tepid” response when discussing the war in Ukraine.

Max Seddon commented in a post on Twitter that most officials at the event had done their “utmost” to avoid the subject.

When the Kremlin leader declared that “all of [the war’s] tasks will be undoubtedly be met”, Mr Seddon added that there was only “tepid applause”.

Read more here.

2 hours ago09:51 Michael Curzon

Gazprom said its supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine via the Sudzha entry point was down to 41.1million cubic metres today.

Yesterday, it stood at 41.9mcm.

The Russian gas producer, cited in Reuters, said it had made an application to supply gas via another entry point, but this was rejected by Ukraine.

3 hours ago09:35 Michael Curzon

In its latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence said Russia had “likely renewed its efforts to advance south of Izium, with the goal of advancing deeper into the Donetsk Oblast, and to envelop the Sieverodonetsk Pocket from the north”.

UK Ministry of Defence updateUK Ministry of Defence update. (Image: Twitter/@DefenceHQ)

4 hours ago08:13 Michael Curzon

Boris Johnson received a warm welcome in Kyiv yesterday, where he met with Volodymyr Zelensky for the second time since the beginning of the war.

But in England, Tories were left frustrated by a late event cancellation.

The Prime Minister was scheduled to make a Wakefield by-election campaign visit and to engage in a Q&A session with Northern Tories.

Christopher Hope of the Telegraph quoted one Northern Research Group source in a post on Twitter as fuming: “Sadly, today’s events show the PM has no commitment to levelling up, his voters, or the North of England. He is burning through goodwill, and looks scared to come and engage with the very group who delivered for him during the vote.”

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has since sprung to Mr Johnson’s… defence.

He wrote in a post on Twitter that the Kyiv visit was “organised in total secrecy”, as are all such events, and that “as a Northern MP myself, I am not affronted by the fact he had to cancel speaking at the conference”.

Mr Wallace added: “As a northern MP I am proud that Britain has been at the forefront of the international effort to support Ukriane.”

He dismissed backlash to the change of scheduling as “a lot of rubbish”.

So there is a lot of rubbish being spouted about the PMu2019s trip to Ukriane. 1. Firstly these trips are organised in total secrecy. Very few, and i mean very few, people know the dates and arrangements. Russia is still launching missile strikes right across Ukriane . 1/5

u2014 Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP (@BWallaceMP) June 17, 2022

4 hours ago08:04 Michael Curzon

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has urged the West not to suggest “peace initiatives with unacceptable terms”.

Writing in the Odessa Journal, he said such proposals “are premised on the idea that, no matter how well Ukrainians fight, they cannot defeat Moscow’s forces”.

This, Mr Kuleba argued, “is wrong”.

He drew particular attention to Emmanuel Macron’s claim that the West “must not humiliate Russia” so it can “build an exit ramp” for the country after the war.

5 hours ago07:41 Michael Curzon

Few were keen to broach the subject of the war in Ukraine yesterday at the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, according to reports.

When Vladimir Putin did so, one of his claims was rejected by a key ally onstage.

The Kremlin leader argued the invasion was justified because he was protecting Russian-speakers in the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk peoples’ republics of eastern Ukraine, which Russia recognised as independent ahead of the “special military operation”.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, sat beside him, signalled that he disagreed.

He, quoted in Bloomberg, said Kazakhstan does not recognise “quasi-state territories which, in our view, is what Luhansk and Donetsk are”, and added there would be “chaos” in the world hundreds of new countries emerged.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart TokayevKazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. (Image: Getty)

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Crime of Aggression: How Putin could be charged by an international criminal tribunal for the Ukraine War

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A 21-year-old Russian soldier pleaded guilty in a trial in Kyiv on May 18, 2022, for shooting a Ukrainian man in the head after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022.

It marked the first trial of a Russian soldier for the war in Ukraine, as allegations mount of Russia committing war crimes – a broad category under international law that includes targeting civilians during conflict.

Ukraine is investigating more than 10,700 potential war crimes, involving more than 600 Russian soldiers and government officials. But there is a large gap between trying an individual sergeant for war crimes and holding Russian leaders themselves accountable for crimes committed during the war.

A lesser-known international crime, called the crime of aggression, could provide a pathway for prosecuting Russian President Vladimir Putin. This crime punishes the illegal invasion or use of force against another country. Only the leaders of the country that started a war can be held responsible for this crime.

Philippe Sands, a well-known international legal expert, has called a crime of aggression case against Putin “a slam dunk.”. This is because there is no legal justification for Russia invading Ukraine. But this legal option is complicated and would likely require forming a new international tribunal – a court set up to specifically investigate and charge people for violating international law.

And as an international lawyer, I know the biggest challenge to holding Putin accountable is not legal, but political. Setting up a special court would require a large political commitment by countries across the globe to follow through on the charges – and it would require a lot of money.

Understanding crimes of aggression

The crime of aggression, formally known as “crimes against the peace,” is generally defined as waging an aggressive war without legal justification.

This crime was first prosecuted at the post-World War II Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals, which were established temporarily between 1945 and 1948. Thirty-one German and Japanese political and military leaders were convicted of these crimes, including Nazi Deputy Fuhrer Rudolf Hess.

There is little question among international lawyers that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an ongoing crime of aggression.

It’s an easier charge than other war-related crimes to level at a national leader. Charging Putin with war crimes would require substantial evidence – like witness testimony or intercepted communications – to prove that Putin planned, directed, knew of or should have known of specific attacks against civilians.

The crime of aggression, on the other hand, is intended for heads of states like Putin and their inner circle. Legal experts have drafted a model indictment against Putin. Many legal observers believe that there would be enough evidence to find Putin guilty of this crime and imprison him.

Not a panacea

Since the 1940s convictions, no one has been prosecuted internationally for crimes of aggression. One reason is that the International Criminal Court – an independent international court based in the Hague, Netherlands, that investigates genocide and war crimes – was not established until 2002. Before then, there was no clear place to prosecute this crime.

International lawyers also did not agree on an exact definition of crimes of aggression for the court until 2010. Russia has not joined the court. This means the court does not have legal power to independently prosecute Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The United Nations Security Council could also refer this case to the court. But as a permanent member of the Security Council with veto powers, Russia would block any attempted referral. Given the limits of the International Criminal Court in this case, a number of legal experts are discussing other pathways.

A new court

Most international experts say that the best option is a new international tribunal, separate from the International Criminal Court. Such tribunals are often set up with a narrow focus of war crimes from a particular conflict or atrocity. They are usually established through the United Nations.

That is because trials in national courts in Ukraine or another country – which recognizes the crime of aggression in their national laws – face various legal and political barriers. Some experts also say that a domestic court lacks the legitimacy of an international trial.

Another option is a hybrid – both international and national court – stemming from an agreement between the U.N. and a country. But legal restrictions in Ukrainian law, for example, make this difficult because the country’s constitution has specific language that could block a hybrid or special court.

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, a human rights organization that has 47 European countries as members, has called for a new international criminal tribunal, which would be based in Strasbourg, France, and would investigate and prosecute Russian leaders for crimes of aggression. The temporary tribunal would have the power to issue an alert to police worldwide to arrest Putin or other Russian leaders whom prosecutors are charging with crimes.

Establishing a new court, though, would take time and a large amount of money. While there are big differences in the various costs of international or hybrid tribunals, prior court processes have cost between $10 million to $15 million per defendant.

International and hybrid courts, such as those that were set up to address conflict in Sierra Leone, are usually funded by wealthy countries like the United States and the United Kingdom.

No end in sight

As the Ukraine war and reports of war crimes continue to unfold, some experts warn against placing too much emphasis on any one kind of legal process for prosecuting Putin.

Ultimately, the barriers to arresting Putin in a foreign country and getting him into any foreign courtroom remain high. Putin is unlikely to leave Russia and risk arrest, and his tight control over Russia at this point also makes it unlikely that he would be turned in by Russian police.

Although it is possible to hold a trial without a defendant present, many human rights experts strongly object to this practice.

And one of the most substantial critiques of establishing a special tribunal for Russia’s aggression is the challenge of selectivity – why this situation gets investigated and prosecuted internationally and why others, such as the U.S. invasion of Iraq, do not. But this is not a new challenge for international law and justice.

Once set up, an independent tribunal is beyond the political control of the countries that establish it.

To date, no head of a state whose country is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council has been tried for the crime of aggression. This would open an important new chapter in modern international justice that would follow a complicated, uncertain course.

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Army of Thieves: Putin’s military weakness follows a long history of corrupt Russian regimes

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In explaining the reasons for Russia’s unexpected military weakness in Ukraine, few have expressed it better than “The Economist.” The magazine noted “the incurable inadequacy of despotic power” and “the cheating, bribery and peculation” that is “characteristic of the entire administration.”

Peculation means embezzlement. It is a word rarely used nowadays; these words were in fact published by “The Economist” in October 1854, when Russia was in the process of losing the Crimean War.

But they might just easily be about Russia today, under Vladimir Putin, and the mess of its invasion of its far smaller neighbor. Rarely have the pernicious effects of authoritarianism and endemic corruption been so vividly on display.

Indeed Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention has cheekily thanked Russian officials for making “it much easier to defend democratic Ukraine” by embezzling “what should have gone to the needs of the army.”

How corrupt is Russia?

Of the world’s 20 major economies, Russia rates the worst on corruption. In 2021, the respected Corruption Perceptions Index compiled by anti-corruption body Transparency International scored Russia 29/100, alongside Liberia, Mali and Angola. This made it the 44th most corrupt nation on the index. (South Sudan was most corrupt, scoring 11/100, and Denmark the least corrupt, on 88/100.)

To be fair, Ukraine’s score isn’t much better, having gone though a similar post-Soviet privatization process that delivered immense wealth to a few oligarchs. Its 2021 corruption score was 32/100.

But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made tackling corruption a central policy, and Ukraine is improving on the index – unlike Russia. Ukraine also has some clear advantages for further improvements.

The U.S. organization Freedom House gives Ukraine a democracy score of 39.3%, compared with 5.4% for Russia. Transparency International rates Ukraine’s democratic processes as “generally free and fair”. It considers efforts in recent years to tackle corruption as slow and flawed, but nonetheless genuine and substantive.

Russia’s rule of thieves

Putin’s Russia, on the other hand, is described by Transparency International as a kleptocracy – a government of thieves. Putin himself is estimated to have accrued a fortune of US$200 billion, making him (unofficially) the world’s second-richest man, after Elon Musk.

Putin’s wealth accumulation methods are relatively straightforward. According to Bill Browder, a fund manager specializing in Russian markets, having Mikhail Khodorkovsky – then Russia’s richest man – sent to prison in 2005 proved particularly fruitful:

After Khodorkovsky’s conviction the other oligarchs went to Putin and asked him what they needed to do to avoid sitting in the same cage as Khodorkovsky. From what followed it appeared that Putin’s answer was “50%” […] for Vladimir Putin personally.

Much of Putin’s fortune is squirreled away in foreign bank accounts and investments, as revealed by the Pandora Papers. But he also enjoys material comforts such as a palace on the Black Sea reputed to have cost about US$1 billion – paid in part out of a government program meant to improve health care.

Stealing from military budgets

Money supposed to be for Russia’s military capability has also been plundered. For example, defense minister Sergei Shoigu lives in an $18 million mansion – not bad for someone supposedly on a government minister’s salary.

A typical pattern has been to award contracts to companies owned by cronies, who then provide shoddy products and pocket huge profits. Food and housing in the Russian military is said to be worse than being in prison. Russian soldiers sent to invade Ukraine have been given rations years out of date.

This has created a “Potemkin military” – all show and little substance – according to Andrey Kozyrev, Russia’s foreign minister from 1990 to 1996:

The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead.

Social distrust runs deep

It should be no surprise, therefore, that Russia is a deeply distrustful society. This has been measured by global surveys such as Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll and the Edelman Trust Barometer. This distrust has been a hallmark of the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine.

Western military organizations emphasize empowering individual units to show initiative when plans go wrong. In marked contrast, the Russian military structure, like the state, is based on command and control, with little faith or trust in troops.

In particular Russia’s conscription-dependent army lacks non-commissioned officers. These senior enlisted personnel train and supervise troops, and often take over leadership of smaller units in wartime.

This helps explain the high number of senior Russian generals killed on the front line in Ukraine – 12 at last count. Typically, generals manage battlefields from a safe distance. But, as a recent report from The Economist has noted:

Morale has been low, logistics poor and casualties high. And that seems to have forced the generals to get their boots muddy.

And also put themselves within range of Ukrainian snipers and missiles. This war, which the Russians expected would be over in days, has just entered its fourth month. It’s possible the Russian military can learn from its strategic and logistical blunders, and still win the battle for the Donbas area. But, unlike many Russian officers, general corruption and general distrust remain on the battlefield.

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Amid Jan. 6 Revelations, Election Lies Still Dominate the G.O.P.

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The hearings have demolished the myth of a stolen presidential election, but with the 2022 primary season in full tilt, the revelations have not loosened the grip of the lie on Republicans.

Three hearings from the House committee investigating Jan. 6 have undercut former President Donald J. Trump’s claims of a stolen election.

Three hearings from the House committee investigating Jan. 6 have undercut former President Donald J. Trump’s claims of a stolen election.Credit…Kenny Holston for The New York Times

Jonathan Weisman

WASHINGTON — It was all a lie, the tales of stuffed ballot drop boxes, rigged voting machines, and constitutional “flexibility” that would have allowed Vice President Mike Pence to nullify the 2020 election results and send them back to Republican state legislatures.

The first three hearings of the House Jan. 6 committee have deeply undercut, if not demolished, the postelection myths repeated incessantly by former President Donald J. Trump and his supporters and embraced and amplified by Republicans in Congress.

A parade of Republican witnesses — his attorney general, William P. Barr, his daughter Ivanka Trump, and his own campaign lawyers — knew he had lost the election and told him so. Mr. Trump was informed that the demands he was making of Mr. Pence to block his defeat unilaterally were illegal. Even the most active coup plotter, the conservative lawyer John C. Eastman, conceded before Jan. 6 that his scheme was illegal and unconstitutional, then sought a presidential pardon after it led to mob violence.

Yet the most striking revelation so far may be how deeply Mr. Trump’s disregard for the truth and the rule of law have penetrated into the Republican Party, taking root in the fertile soil of a right-wing electorate stewing in conspiracy theories and well tended by their media of choice. The Republican response to the hearings — a combination of indifference, diversion and doubling down — reflects how central the lie of a stolen election has become to the party’s identity.

In Washington, Republicans in Congress have neither broken with Mr. Trump nor expended much energy trying to rebut the investigation’s findings. And from Nevada’s secretary of state race to Michigan’s contest for governor, Republican candidates have embraced the fictional conspiracy in their 2022 campaigns.

“I have been fighting for safe, honest and transparent elections since before Jan. 6, and that fight continues,” said Michigan State Representative Steve Carra, whose re-election run has been blessed by Mr. Trump and who said Friday he has watched some but not much of the hearings. “Absentee ballots sent out unsolicited, signature verification relaxed, drop boxes all over the place, especially in Democratic area — it all deserves further scrutiny.”

Like mint in the garden, the seeds that the Trump team planted between Election Day 2020 and Jan. 6, 2021, are now growing out of control, aided by the former president’s allies.

Jarome Bell, a leading candidate to challenge Representative Elaine Luria, Democrat of Virginia, has been traveling her Republican-leaning district showing voters a film by the right-wing provocateur Dinesh D’Souza that pushes the bogus fraud claims. The hearings, he said on Friday, have had “no impact on me. ‘2000 Mules’ has a bigger impact on what truly happened.” He added, “the 1/6 commission is the cover-up.”

Despite coverage of the hearings, at least one lawmaker lamented that his constituents were not paying much attention.Credit…Jason Andrew for The New York Times

Jon Rocha, a candidate for state representative in Michigan who has Mr. Trump’s backing, also cited the film and bragged that he had watched none of the hearings, “not even a 30-second clip.”

One reason the falsehoods have flourished is the failure of Republicans who do not believe them to push back. Before the Jan. 6 hearings began, Republican leaders promised a robust “rapid response” effort to counter the narratives that would emerge.

But there has been no such pushback from the Republican National Committee or any other organization to revelations that Mr. Trump continued to pressure Mr. Pence to overturn the election results, even after having been told doing so was illegal.

No Republican leader offered a response to the testimony of retired federal appeals court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a revered conservative, who said on Thursday that Mr. Trump gave Mr. Pence an order whose execution would have prompted “the first constitutional crisis since the founding of the Republic.”

None bothered to counter the panel’s finding, revealed on Monday, that Mr. Trump and his campaign raised hundreds of millions of dollars from supporters based on the false pretense of massive election fraud, using money collected for an election defense fund that did not exist.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate minority leader, has chosen not to engage on the issue at all. And to the extent that they are trying to counterprogram the hearings, House Republicans have been prodding voters to look elsewhere — to rising gas prices, inflation and migrants at the southern border.

Only Mr. Trump seems particularly irritated by the exercise, appalled by the testimony of his daughter, who shared details of his abusive phone call with Mr. Pence on the morning of Jan. 6 and said she trusted Mr. Barr’s judgment when he said that the 2020 election was not stolen.

“It’s a one-way street, it’s a rigged deal, it’s a disgrace,” a thoroughly unrepentant Mr. Trump said on Friday at a speech in Nashville in which he called Jan. 6 “a simple protest that got out of hand” as he continued spinning out false claims and grand conspiracy theories of election fraud.

But if his allies in Republican leadership are not countering the message that the attack was fueled by lies, neither are they acknowledging that the election was not stolen.

And 50 years to the day after henchmen of Richard M. Nixon broke into Democratic headquarters in the Watergate Hotel, the hearings sparked by the two scandals are highlighting just how dramatically the Republican Party has changed. Then, key Republican leaders reacted to increasingly damning revelations about their president by siding with the Democrats and forcing Mr. Nixon from power. Today, Republican leaders are either silent or contemptuous of the committee uncovering a steady stream of misdeeds by Mr. Trump.

Representatives Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, and Adam B. Schiff “will not stop lying about their political opponents,” Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader, wrote on Twitter, referring to the Democratic chairman from Mississippi, Republican vice chairwoman from Wyoming and Democratic member from California.

Representative Peter Meijer of Michigan, one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Mr. Trump for inciting Jan. 6, said the hearings have so far been “a reminder of how deeply divided, even from an information consumption standpoint, we are.”

Many of his constituents have not even seen the videotaped testimony laying out the case against Mr. Trump — only footage of police removing barricades to let rioters into the Capitol on Jan 6. Some blame nonexistent F.B.I. provocateurs for the violence, in line with a debunked conspiracy theory embraced by the Fox News host Tucker Carlson and others on the right.

Representative Kevin McCarthy of California and other Republican leaders held a news conference in the Capitol on Thursday to attack the committee’s work.Credit…Michael A. McCoy for The New York Times

Mr. Meijer said he has heard far more from constituents on the right lamenting the “Jan. 6 political prisoners” than those in the center demanding accountability for the attack.

Most voters, though, are not paying attention, said Representative David Valadao of California, another Republican to vote for impeachment.

“Talking to voters at home right now — I mean, the fuel prices, food prices, baby formula, you name it,” Mr. Valadao said. “There’s just so many things that people are focused on right now that they’re just not paying attention to the Jan. 6 stuff as much as I know a lot of folks would want them to.”

Asked if the hearings might do Republicans a favor by making it easier to find an alternative presidential nominee in 2024 than Mr. Trump, he responded: “I don’t know if enough people are paying attention where it’ll have that big of an impact.”

But in a Republican primary season fueled by pro-Trump fervor, many candidates have emerged as their party’s nominees for top offices in large part because they campaigned on the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen by President Biden.

The Republican nominees for governor in Pennsylvania, secretary of state in Nevada, Senate in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and attorney general in Texas all tried to overturn the 2020 election or embraced false claims of voter fraud.

Mayra Flores, a Texas Republican who won a House seat in a special election on Tuesday, has declined to say whether Mr. Biden won in 2020, telling The San Antonio Express-News: “I’m speaking just in general. There is voter fraud.”

And there is more to come. State Representative Ron Hanks, vying to challenge Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat, in Colorado’s Republican primary June 28, marched to the Capitol on Jan. 6 and launched his campaign with an ad showing him shooting a fake Dominion voting machine, a device central to a sprawling conspiracy theory about votes purportedly stolen by foreign powers from Mr. Trump.

On Monday, the committee showed a videotaped deposition in which Mr. Barr at one point could barely suppress his laughter at the absurdity of such stories and testified that Mr. Trump would have had to be “detached from reality” if he believed them.

In Michigan, a wild contest to choose the Republican to challenge Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is narrowly led by Ryan Kelley, a real estate broker who was arrested this month and charged with participating in the Jan. 6 riot. Mr. Rocha, the state house candidate in Western Michigan, said voters were far more concerned about gas prices and empty store shelves than the Jan. 6 hearings, then offered that voters in fact are still very angry about “election integrity.”

“They did it in 2020. Now they’re finding new avenues to remove Republicans from the ballot this year,” he said.

In Arizona, the leading Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lake, has made her “stolen election” claims central to her campaign. Mark Finchem, a candidate for secretary of state, was at the front steps of the Capitol on Jan. 6. And Blake Masters, who hopes to challenge Senator Mark Kelly, the incumbent Democrat, suggested baselessly that “one-third of the people outside of the Capitol complex on Jan. 6 were actual F.B.I. agents.”

Annie Karni contributed reporting.

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